Category: Football

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By the Numbers: Game 13 vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship Game)

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scaled the mountain, and didn’t even have to die trying.  While the Big House rocked on a snowy day, Michigan was physically dominant on offense and on defense as they pounded the Ohio State Buckeyes 42-27. 

NEXT UP: vs. Iowa: 21st, 13.7 

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 11.1, Michigan Win Probability 74%

I’ve mentioned it a few times this season, but it seems to be getting more and more true.  I think the Vegas bookmakers may have reverse-engineered the SP+ projections.  Currently, Michigan (-10.5) is projected to win by 11.1 by Connelly’s model.

Michigan Offense (22nd) vs. Iowa Defense (4th) 

Iowa’s defense is an open book.  They have run almost the exact same system for a decade.  The Hawkeye’s core philosophy is almost exactly what Michigan’s defensive approach was last week versus OSU.  They are going to stay true to their principles, keep WRs in front of them and tackle well.  Their best defensive player is LB Jack Campbell.  Campbell has racked up 121 tackles in 12 games.  Hassan Haskins versus Jack Campbell could be marketed individually as the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.  Josh Gattis will likely tap into some of his creativity to find favorable matchups on the edges and underneath the Iowa coverage.  

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Iowa Offense (92nd)

The Hawkeye’s offense is the lowest ranked unit Michigan has faced since Indiana.  They have two quarterbacks that have separate strengths, but neither has seized control of the offensive unit.  Of greatest concern for Iowa fans is they do NOT have their normal stable of NFL-bound offensive tackles.  The Hawkeyes’ are led by their All Conference center, Tyler Linderbaum.  They will need to find some running room inside, because they stand almost zero chance of slowing down Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.

PREDICTION: Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbaugh have spoken glowingly about one another this week.  It’s pretty easy to see many similarities in their philosophies, and how they’ve built their respective programs.  For Michigan, the key will be eliminating self-inflicted wounds.  Taking care of the football, and making solid pre-snap decisions has been a strength of the Wolverines and their QB Cade McNamara.   Only 3 teams have scored more than 20 points against Mike MacDonald’s defense.  If the Wolverines avoid shooting themselves in the foot, I can’t see Iowa becoming the 4th.  
Michigan 31 Iowa 13

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/30/21, 11-1

  • SP+ Overall: 4th (same), 24.8
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↑5), 37.1
  • SP+ Defense: 7th (same), 14.9
  • SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (same), 2.6

AP Poll: 2nd (↑4), 1,449

Coaches’ Poll: 3rd (↑3), 1,408

CFP Rank: 2nd (↑3)

U-M Resume after Game #12
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2021 Michigan Football — Playbook — Flea Flicker — Hassan Haskins to Cade McNamara to Mike Sainristil

Let’s break down Michigan’s 3rd Quarter Flea Flicker versus Ohio State in their 42-27 victory.

Michigan has shown the flea flicker before this season and here is another variation.

PRE-SNAP

They line up strong right (tight end and twins) on the left hashmark #25 Hassan Haskins in the backfield to the right of Cade McNamara. #5 Mike Sainristil (the trailing twin to #14 Roman Wilson) goes in motion pre-snap.

Michigan is targeting #5 and #17 on the Ohio State defense.

POST SNAP

#25 Hassan Haskins takes the handoff, freezing the Ohio State secondary and then flips the ball back to Cade McNamara.

Check out the Michigan offensive line- #76 Ryan Hayes and #77 Trevor Keegan seal the middle while #68 Andrew Vastardis drops back to block the Ohio State defensive end. #65 Zak Zinter and #84 Joel Honigford take on Ohio defenders while #25 Hassan Haskins and #71 Andrew Steuber provide moral support.

Cade McNamara has all day to make the pass.

McNamara throws a pass Sainristil and Michigan executes another flea flicker play (3:37 of the below clip). #5 on the Ohio State mirrors Sainristil but gets turned around as he breaks downfield.

PLAY DIAGRAM — THE ACTION



McNamara slightly underthrows Sainristil or the play might have gone for a touchdown. But the impact on Ohio State can’t be overstated.

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Michigan 42 Ohio State 27 – Game 12 Recap

It’s Great…To Be…A MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 42-27, Michigan by 15 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: OSU by 5.8 (+20.8)
CD Projection: OSU by 3 (+18)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP vs. Ohio State

What a day! It was a fitting cap to an outstanding regular season for these Michigan Wolverines. Michigan dominated on both sides of the ball on the way to a 42-27 statement victory over their greatest rival, the Ohio State Buckeyes. This is Jim Harbaugh’s first victory over the Buckeyes, and Ryan Day’s first loss to any team in the Big Ten.

Offensively, the best way to describe today is COMPLETE. As usual, the Wolverines were led by their senior running back Hassan Haskins. Haskins carried 28 times for 169 yards and a Michigan-record-tying 5 touchdowns. Blake Corum returned to action and also chipped in 87 yards and 14.5 yards per carry.

When the Wolverines wanted to throw the ball, they were also successful. Cade McNamara was 13-of-19 for 159 yards after shaking off an early interception. JJ McCarthy flashed all-world talent once again on a beautiful 31-yard connection with Roman Wilson along the right sideline. Josh Gattis brought the best game plan he’s ever put together, and the Wolverines executed to the tune of 42 points and a 72% Success Rate.

Most of the concern heading into the game was whether the Michigan defense could stand up to a historically great Ohio State offense. The feeling of what may be possible started to spread through the Big House at half time when the Buckeyes only had 13 points to show. CJ Stroud amassed 394 passing yards, and Jackson Smith-Njigba was a human highlight reel, but the Bucks could never catch the Wolverines on the score board in the 2nd half.

Aidan Hutchinson looked nearly unblockable again. His 3rd quarter sack gave him sole possession of the Michigan single season sack record, with at least two games yet to play this year. Josh Ross also stepped forward and made 2 or 3 huge stops on key short yardage situations. It was a fitting narrative that these leaders would stamp The Game with such heroic performances.

The return game was solid again, another common theme for this 2021 team. Michigan won the field position battle, if only slightly. Perhaps the biggest key was avoiding FG attempts in the red zone. Michigan had seven opportunities in scoring position, and scored 6 touchdowns without having to attempt a field goal.

Jim Harbaugh echoed Wolverine lore in his press conference, stating that the Michigan faithful will be celebrating deep into the night. He is 100% right. I pray the players and coaches can enjoy this as well. There is still work to be done, as Michigan looks for their first Big Ten Championship in 17 years next weekend. Onward!

2021-12-Michigan-42-Ohio-State-27-StatsDownload
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2021 Michigan Football — Playbook — Victory — Erick All 47 Yard TD Reception

Let’s break down the 47 yard touchdown pass from QB Cade McNamara to TE Erick All at the 3:40 mark of the 4th quarter.

TE Erick All describes the game winning TD.

It was a huge play for Michigan, coming back and taking the lead on the road at Penn State.

PRE-SNAP


Here is the pre-snap look at the line of scrimmage. It’s 2nd and 10 yards to go, early in 4th quater. Michigan has the three receivers to the wide side of the field– as I’ve mentioned before, this is one of my favorite formations used by Josh Gattis. It gives the offense many options and causes coverage problems, if the offensive line can hold their blocks long enough for the receivers to run their routes. Penn State has their defense spread defending the edges, almost daring Michigan to run inside.

Here’s another angle showing the match-ups, and the Nittany Lions have a problem. They have overloaded their defense keying on #25 Hassan Haskins. #12 Cade McNamara knows that #83 Erick All will have an opportunity for a huge play if the offense line can hold.

POST SNAP

As the play unfolds things go from bad to worse for Penn State. First, the Michigan offensive line holds, allowing all three receivers (#5 Mike Sainristil, #14 Roman Wilson, and #6 Cornelius Johnson) to run patterns to left side of the first, drawing their defenders with them.

Second, Penn State defender #4 who is mirroring #83 Erick All, runs into another defender giving All separation. #5 Sainstril has plenty of open field and even #12 McNamara could made a nice gain if he chose to run.

What happens next is when is everything goes right.

Not only was Michigan in great position we had two photographers covering the game and one was in perfect postion.

McNamara hits All as he crosses the formation, and Penn State defenders rush to pursue.

Photo by Dell Callihan/UMGoBlue.COM

#4 (who ran into another defender) attempting to shadow All had the best chance but he unable to catch him.

Photo by Dell Callihan/UMGoBlue.COM

#16 (playing deep safety) nearly forces All out of bound prior to end zone but he comes up short as well.

Photo by Dell Callihan/UMGoBlue.COM
Photo by Dell Callihan/UMGoBlue.COM
Photo by Dell Callihan/UMGoBlue.COM

PLAY DIAGRAM — THE ACTION

This play shows how the overloading the formation to the wide side causes problems for Penn State.

Michigan called a great play, but it relied on the offensive line holding their blocks, All running a precise pattern, and McNamara throwing a ball right where it needed to go– not to mention a little luck with Penn State defenders running into each other.

https://youtu.be/RV-evt0qi0s

Aidan Hutchinson shares his feeling for Cade McNamara

Not to be completely outdone, our other photographer got this great shot after the game.

Erick All, Josh Gattis, and Cade McNamara celebrating post game
Photo by Ryan Callihan/UMGoBlue.COM