Category: SP+

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By the Numbers: Game 7 @ Illinois

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines couldn’t hold a 4th quarter lead against the Washington Huskies as they headed into the bye week.  Eventually the big plays allowed by the defense, and two costly turnovers by the offense, fueled Washington’s 27-17 victory. 

NEXT UP: @ Illinois: SP+ 47th, 6.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 4.9, Michigan Win Probability 62%

As Michigan rested last week, the Illini were sweating out a 1-point overtime victory over SP+ 82nd ranked Purdue.  I think both the SP+ model and the Vegas odds would have favored the 5-1 Illinois at home if not for that eye-opener against the Boilermakers. 

Michigan Offense (63rd) vs. Illinois Defense (43rd) 

Surprisingly, the Illinois defense provides an advantageous match up for the Wolverines.  The Illini have given up 239 yards rushing in each of their last two games to Purdue and to Penn State  This could be exactly what the doctor ordered for a Michigan offensive line that has yet to click as a unit.  While the Wolverines have had a couple big rushing performances in 2024, they still are searching for consistency.  In Jack Tuttle’s first start for Michigan, their ability to lean on a high success rate in the run game should open throwing lanes to Coleston Loveland and Amorion Walker down the field.  Hopefully left tackle #78 Myles Hinton is back in the starting lineup.  He is the one Michigan lineman who has been able to move defenders off the line of scrimmage regularly. 

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Illinois Offense (58th)

Early in the season, my assumption was that Michigan’s defensive struggles were mostly due to lack of offensive success putting the D into bad spots.  While that was certainly happening, it was not the case in the Washington loss.  The Huskies put up a gaudy 47% success rate against the Michigan defense, including 45% success on 3rd down.  The Wolverines need their playmakers to step forward in the biggest moments.  Hopefully the bye week helped a few key players heal, especially edge rusher #8 Derrick Moore.  Illinois quarterback Luke Altmeyer has been fantastic this season.  His only poor performance was the one loss for the Illini at Penn State.  The Michigan defensive front will be able to win 1-on-1 against this offensive line, but coordinator Wink Martindale will have to do a better job of pairing disguised coverages with his rushes.  If Altmeyer is allowed to make simple decisions and get the ball out of his hand quickly, this game could look a lot like the Washington game. 

PREDICTION: Most of the focus locally and nationally seems to be on the Michigan offense as they trot out their 3rd starting QB of the season.  While that is understandable, this game will be decided by Michigan’s defense.  Our preseason predictions were looking for an elite defense to lead the Wolverines while a new offensive lineup figured things out.  The offense has a golden opportunity to reestablish a dominant run game, so I am placing the focus squarely on the defense to be elite.  For now, I will predict that the Wolverine defensive front will cause just enough havoc to allow Michigan to escape Champaign with a victory. 
Michigan 24 Illinois 21 (PRESEASON Michigan 20 Illinois 7)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 10/13/24, 4-2

SP+ Overall: 21st (↑6), 13.7
SP+ Offense: 63rd (↑5), 28.1
SP+ Defense: 9th (↑3), 14.8
SP+ Special Teams: 11th (↓2), 0.4

AP Poll: 24th (same), 133

Coaches’ Poll: 22nd (↓1), 223

CFP Rank: N/A

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Michigan 27 Minnesota 24 – Game 5 Recap

GAME 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.0 (-9.0)
CD Projection: Michigan by 15 (-12)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 5 RECAP vs. Minnesota

Michigan offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell answered the bell. This game plan was solid, and creative. We saw personnel adjustments that better utilized the Wolverines’ talent, even with Semaj Morgan sidelined. Unfortunately, Michigan is still one or two mistakes away from efficient execution. Kalel Mullings cashed in on a long run, and a short field to score two first quarter touchdowns. A blocked punt led to a 3rd score and a 21-3 halftime lead. The yardage told a different story, though. The Gophers outgained Michigan 130-107 in the first half, and 166-134 in the second half. Coleston Loveland still looks less than 100%, and now Myles Hinton adds another big injury concern at left tackle.

While it was clearly a story of two halves for Michigan overall, the defense was a little different. The Wolverines looked dominant in the 1st and 3rd quarters, but could not get the big stops necessary in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Linebacker Ernest Hausmann led the effort with 9 total tackles, and Mason Graham led with 2 tackles for loss. Maybe the highlight of the game was an acrobatic interception by Jayaire Hill on a deep bomb along the sideline. Hill was in great position, got his head around to find the ball, made the pick with his hands and managed to toe tap in bounds.

Placekicker Dominic Zvada reentered the scoring sheet with two field goals, and provided the eventual game winning points. Tommy Doman averaged nearly 47 yards per punt, but a first half touchback, and a big 60-yard return in the second half killed the net effect. Michigan averaged just 26.4 net yards per punt, and lost a significant field position advantage in the second half.

Right now Michigan Football feels like a boxer who has been stunned, and just needs to hang in there until the bell. The injuries are piling up, and it seems like most other teams have had their first bye week at this point. The Wolverines will need to get back to work right away to prep for their first road trip out west to Seattle next week. Then they will feel the relief of some rest during a bye week. The Michigan staff needs to tighten up their execution to ride their complementary football style to another victory before the break. Smash!

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By the Numbers: Game 5 vs. Minnesota

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scored with under a minute remaining to take the lead, and held on to secure the 27-24 victory over the USC Trojans in an instant classic. The defense held their own against a top-tier offense, and Kalel Mullings was an absolute beast on the ground, including a Jim Brown style rumble for 63 yards on the game winning drive. 

NEXT UP: vs. Minnesota: SP+ 47th, 6.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.0, Michigan Win Probability 77%

The Vegas lines are finally shifting closer to the SP+ model output.  Right now Michigan is a 10.5 point betting favorite, and SP+ likes the Wolverines by 12.  I am surprised Minnesota’s defense stayed ranked in the top 20 after allowing Iowa to score 31 points last week.

Michigan Offense (61st) vs. Minnesota Defense (17th) 

All the analysis and prognostication is centered on this match up with Alex Orji making his second start at QB.  After going 7-for-12 for 32 yards passing last game, a huge portion of the Michigan fan base wants to see more passing game competence.  Unfortunately for them, rainy conditions in the Big House will likely limit the play calling options available to offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. The Wolverines are completely satisfied duplicating what worked for them last week versus USC, because it also worked just fine for Iowa in a 31-14 victory in Minneapolis.  For me, the most important thing is getting your five best offensive weapons onto the field together as frequently as possible.  Kalel Mullings, Coleston Loveland, Donovan Edwards, Max Bredeson, and Semaj Morgan should see a lion’s share of the snaps in order to threaten the entire field.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Minnesota Offense (89th)

Put very simply, this is a David vs. Goliath mismatch.  Michigan has to handle their business down-to-down to avoid giving the Gophers any sense of confidence.  Under PJ Fleck, Minnesota has been a run-first offense with a smash mentality similar to Sherrone Moore’s Wolverines.  However, this year they are more reliant on a super dangerous wide receiver #9 Daniel Jackson, and transfer QB from New Hampshire #16 Max Brosmer.  One potential snag for Michigan could be depth at the defensive back position.  Will Johnson was not 100% healthy to finish last week’s game, so #20 Jyaire Hill and #12 Aamir Hall may be called on to answer the challenge against Jackson.  I expect Michigan’s defensive line to wreak havoc on the Gophers all day, but the defensive backs will have to avoid coverage busts and missed tackles that have been too commonplace to start this season.

PREDICTION: Michigan will likely need to build their own energy down on the sidelines.  It’s a grey, rainy day in Ann Arbor that might suppress the enthusiasm of the Big House crowd after last week’s classic comeback.  I expect the defense to set up the offense with a couple short fields, and if Orji and the offense cash those possessions in early, this could become a blow out.  Right now, I need to see a little cleaner execution from the offensive line, and more creativity with personnel from Kirk Campbell before I start predicting high score totals for the Wolverines.

Michigan 21 Minnesota 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Minnesota 9)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/14/24, 3-1

CFP Rank: N/A

SP+ Overall: 15th (↓3), 15.8
SP+ Offense: 61st (↓4), 28.5
SP+ Defense: 5th (↓1), 13.1
SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑9), 0.4

AP Poll: 12th (↑6), 805

Coaches’ Poll: 12th (↑5), 692

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Michigan 27 USC 24 – Game 4 Recap

GAME 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over USC
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.9 (-0.9)
CD Projection: USC by 4 (+7)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 4 RECAP vs. USC

To make a classic football game, both sides have to have a legit chance to win. USC played a whale of a game on the road to put themselves in position to win. Lincoln Riley vs. Wink Martindale was like Ali vs. Frazier. Unfortunately, the offense played the role of Achilles’ heel. The Wolverines only mustered 32 yards passing on 12 attempts. But, the offense was able to put 21 points on the board (defense scored 6) because they committed to their smash identity. One critical result here is buying more time for Kirk Campbell to figure out how to create more balance with scripted plays & high percentage throws. Kalel Mullings should get at least one week of Campbell’s salary. Mullings rushed 17 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns, including a 4th down, game-on-the-line smash that should go into Wolverines’ lore forever.

Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale had a proverbial gauntlet laid down after Texas romped over Michigan in the Big House. He had to simplify enough to let these college kids play fast, without too much thinking. At the same time, he had to keep enough variability to match wits with offensive wizard Lincoln Riley coming off a bye. This afternoon was a resoundingly successful proof of concept for the ol’ NFL coordinator. The Trojans started the third quarter with an impressive 75-yard touchdown drive. Outside of that drive, the wins for USC were more flashes in the pan. By the end, Miller Moss was seeing ghosts, and hearing footsteps when it mattered the most in he fourth quarter. Will Johnson cemented his big play legacy when he set a Michigan record with his third career pick-six, but left the game early for an unknown reason.

We now know that the Michigan kicker, Dominic Zvada, is human. He clunked a PAT low enough to get blocked. That missing pointt gave USC an opportunity to tie the game with a field goal at the end. However, his boy Tommy Doman stepped in and carried the kicking game. Doman averaged 47.9 yards per punt on seven punts. The first half field position advantage led directly to the Wolverines’ 14-3 half time lead.

Live during the game, I noted that Michigan was approximately 70/30 run plays and USC was 70/30 pass plays. This sparked my memory of Jim Harbaugh’s quip about George Patton getting it done on the ground, and Neil Armstrong getting it done through the air. While both sides left it all out there, the astronaut’s offense from California couldn’t outlast Patton’s barrage on the ground. Smash!

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By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. USC

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan handled their business early, but still didn’t look sharp in the passing game.  The Wolverines overcame 3 interceptions and a -2 turnover margin to defeat the Arkansas State Red Wolves 28-18. 

NEXT UP: vs. USC: SP+ 17th, 16.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 3.9, Michigan Win Probability 60%

The SP+ model is blind to the QB switch to Alex Orji.  We shall see if the offense ticks up from 57th nationally with the added dimension to the run game.  USC meanwhile is climbing as a defense, but with only two games of data to add atop their preseason ranking.

Michigan Offense (57th) vs. USC Defense (70th) 

The switch to Orji as the starting quarterback will get the majority of media attention.  But, the real test is how much continued improvement we see from the offensive line.  LT Myles Hinton has been good, but nobody else up front has stood out for positive performance.  At a minimum, this unit needs to clean up the mental mistakes.  For the Wolverines to be successful, they need to be successful on standard downs, especially 1st & 10.  Consistently putting 2nd & 5, or 3rd & 1 in front of Alex Orji will allow coordinator Kirk Campbell to utilize any page from the playbook that they’ve installed. 

Michigan Defense (4th) vs. USC Offense (4th)

Very similarly to the Texas matchup, this is strength-on-strength.  Lincoln Riley knows how to maximize his QB’s talent.  Miller Moss is not a serious run threat, but they will look to pick on the linebackers with RPO’s, as well as attacking Jayaire Hill down the field.  Wink Martindale showed that he can turn the dial down last week versus Arkansas State.  Early in this game, we want to see Michigan hang back and force USC to hand he ball off into light boxes.  The Wolverines’ defensive line should be able to win one-on-one matchups inside, allowing the linebackers to stay in passing lanes. 

PREDICTION: Michigan needs their best performance of the season to beat the Trojans.  There are a handful of 50/50 what-if matchups, and I think Michigan needs to win three or four of those coin flips.  We need Orji to threaten the safeties with his legs (good blocking) and with his arm (stretching deep when they creep forward).  We also need to move the chains consistently enough that USC is forced to drive 70+ yards on each of their possessions.  Keep the game close, and look to wear the Trojans down in the 4th quarter.

More bad news for Michigan as we hear that tight end Coleston Loveland will be sidelined with a shoulder injury.  This puts more pressure on Kirk Campbell to scheme up plays that will give Alex Orji a chance to hit an open receiver.  When in doubt, pull the ball down and run!  It just feels like there may be too many what-ifs for Michigan to overcome.
Michigan 20 USC 24 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 USC 10)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/17/24, 2-1

CFP Rank: N/A

SP+ Overall: 12th (↑1), 17.4
SP+ Offense: 57th (↑10), 28.4
SP+ Defense: 4th (↓1), 11.3
SP+ Special Teams: 11th (↑13), 0.3

AP Poll: 18th (↓1), 447

Coaches’ Poll: 17th (↓1), 439