Tag: Recap

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Michigan 29 Indiana 7 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 29-7, Michigan by 22 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 17.9 (+4.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 22 (✅)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Indiana

That was a clean sweep on the Five Factors for Michigan. Those games usually result in a ho-hum response from the media and from fans. However, that is exactly what this team needed. They played to their strengths, tried to answer a few questions from previous weeks, and rolled to a 3-score victory.

Offensively, Hassan Haskins stepped forward to carry this team once again. Haskins had 168 yards on 27 carries, both career highs. H2 was without his normal running mate, as Blake Corum only played a handful of snaps before retreating to the locker room for further evaluation of an injury.

Also, Cade McNamara showed that he is still the right QB to lead this unit. He completed 10-of-18 passes for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. Josh Gattis clearly wanted to return to a balanced approach with his run game and passing attack. The play calls were 50/50, and yardage was almost equal as well.

The Michigan defense was back to being dominant for large swaths of this game. Outside of one drive where Indiana QB Donaven McCulley broke tackles and scrambled for big plays, the Wolverines really suffocated the Hoosiers. Indiana finished with just 195 total net yards for the whole game. While the defense bottled up the IU rushing attack (average 0.036 Expected Points Added per play), the Wolverines really attacked Indiana when they dropped back to pass. The Hoosiers’ pass plays averaged a negative EPA on the day, -0.129.

Jake Moody led the special teams unit, and cashed in another 3 field goals today. While his kickoffs were high and short, Indiana wanted no part of testing the coverage units. The return game was particularly impacted by injuries in this one. AJ Henning and Andrel Anthony both were dinged up in addition to Corum. DJ Turner filled in as the next man up returning punts. Onward to Happy Valley!

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Michigan 33 MSU 37 – Game 8 Recap

GAME 8 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 33-37, MSU by 4 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.5 (-7.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 10 (-14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 8 RECAP @ MSU

It was incomplete. All of it. Any facet of this game that you look at, there is a lot more good to talk about than there is bad. But, Michigan didn’t finish. The game plans on both sides were solid, but didn’t adjust once the Wolverines were up 16 in the 3rd quarter and MSU had to empty the clip.

Offensively, Michigan got off to a rocket start by surprising everyone with a first-half passing clinic. Andrel Anthony burst onto the scene with a 93-yard touchdown, and Cade McNamara was pin-point accurate.

When the Wolverines pushed it to a 30-14 lead, I assumed Michigan would salt this away. The only questions was whether Haskins or Corum would be the one hammering. Somehow, that didn’t happen. This was the first negative EPA run performance of 2021, and it deserves a much closer look. There would be a lot on this film to be excited about offensively, if Paul B. was on the bus back to Ann Arbor. But…he ain’t.

It was sickening to listen to the FOX broadcast team highlight Mel Tucker’s pregame quote: “…body blows…In the championship round, we think they’ll flinch…” It was sickening because it was happening in front of our eyes. Defenders got out of the run gaps, and Kenneth Walker made us all pay. Interceptions were there to be had, yet hit the turf instead.

When a 2nd half lead evaporates, I always want to see under the hood on defense first. Regardless of the detail, the Wolverines could not limit the big plays the way Indiana and Nebraska did previously to the Spartans.

On special teams, Jake Moody gets a huge tip of my cap. He was 4/4 on field goals, including repeatedly hitting them at the end of the 1st half when Mel Tucker tried to ice him with all three timeouts. Additionally, the MSU return game was satisfied with Fair Catches and Touchbacks. Brad Robbins mishandled a punt snap (yikes!), but the defense managed to cover for him.

AJ Henning was solid returning the ball, but really hurt field position in the 2nd quarter when he let a punt bounce and roll. Still work to do in all three phases.

There will be a lot of bluster and big talking this week. Michigan needs to get right against Indiana and play well in all 3 phases. No Michigan team should ever shrivel in the face of adversity. Still a lot to play for. We’ll see how this version of the Wolverines manages to dig deep. Onward!

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Michigan 33 Northwestern 7 – Game 7 Recap

GAME 7 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 33-7, Michigan by 26 over Northwestern
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 21.6 (+4.4)
CD Projection: Michigan by 31 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 7 RECAP vs. Northwestern

This was definitely not the clean performance we wanted, but it’s not grounds for panic either. The Wolverines dominated nearly every statistical category. Yet, the whole game still felt somehow disjointed. It felt like the Wolverines were trying to stay balanced on offense, while grabbing another week for a few players to rest. On defense, Michigan dominated, outside of one really horrific bust in the run game.

Offensively, Michigan was aggressive in pushing the ball down the field in the pass game early. However, the deep shots missed their targets both into the wind and with the wind helping. The Wolverines racked up another 300 yards rushing (removing sack yardage). Somehow, it never quite felt like Michigan was steamrolling Northwestern despite all the yards. In the grand scheme, this game boiled down to continuously moving the chains and keeping the offense on the field. Michigan ran 87 plays (including garbage time) compared to just 55 for the Wildcats.

Northwestern was able to find a couple holes in the Michigan defense today. However, Mike MacDonald and the defensive staff were able to close those holes quickly. The most egregious bust came in the 2nd quarter when Evan Hull zipped up the middle for a 75-yard touchdown run, untouched. Outside of that highlight for the Wildcats, the Wolverine defenders strangled Northwestern to just a 28% Success Rate and 233 total yards.

Another Michigan blocked punt highlighted the special teams effort in this one. Cornelius Johnson capitalized on a new opportunity to contribute and smothered the Northwester punter. The result was a drive starting at the NW 24 yard line, and led to the touchdown that allowed Michigan to seize control for good.

All attention now turns to East Lansing, where 7-0 Michigan will invade to take on the 7-0 Spartans for the Paul Bunyan trophy and for early control of the Big Ten East division race. Onward!

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Michigan 32 Nebraska 29 – Game 6 Recap

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GAME 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 32-29, Michigan by 3 over Nebraska
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.6 (-0.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 20 (-17)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 6 RECAP @ Nebraska

Michigan fans can learn something from this 2021 Wolverines football team: enjoy the moment! The team is 6-0 heading into the bye week, and not even the most optimistic of us could have guessed that in August.

This group has a clear identity on both sides of the ball. They play hard and execute pretty cleanly, especially on special teams. They are player led, and the coaches augment the players’ positive energy. I am not saying it’s all sunshine and rainbows, but no season is. Embrace the struggle, and celebrate this team that has successfully battled through adversity together.

The offense carried Michigan to the victory today. However, I would also argue they are the main reason the game remained close. The Wolverines had a major efficiency advantage in the first half, and ran 22 more plays than Nebraska did. This ended as a 3-point victory because Michigan could not execute in the red zone and cash in more touchdowns in their 7 (!!) scoring opportunities.

Michigan racked up 219 yards rushing (sack adjusted). The Wolverines were led by Hassan Haskins’ 123 yards rushing (5.9 ypc) and 2 touchdowns. We also witnessed the return of Boom & Zoom in the 4th quarter as Haskins leapt a defender and rumbled 50 yards to set up the game-tying field goal. The drive before that saw Blake Corum zoom around the left end and race untouched into the end zone.

Defensively, Nebraska’s dual threat quarterback gave Michigan fits. Adrian Martinez went 18-of-28 for 291 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT. He also converted a handful of big 3rd downs with his legs on QB draw plays through the middle of the defense.

You have to give the Husker offensive staff a good chunk of credit. They made some very shrewd halftime adjustments. After suffering through a 21% and 17% success rate in the 1st and 2nd quarters, Nebraska bounced back to 65% success rate in the 3rd quarter, and 44% in the 4th. In the biggest moment, however, Michigan senior safety Brad Hawkins stripped Martinez as the QB ran for another 3rd down conversion. The Wolverines recovered the ball and kicked the game-winning field goal.

Once you pat Hassan Haskins on the back, the next game ball probably goes to the kicker Jake Moody. Moody was a perfect 4-for-4 on field goals, including two high-pressure kicks in the 4th quarter. He also blasted every kickoff well through the end zone to force the Cornhuskers to start nearly every drive from their own 25 yard line.

Because the Nebraska offense moved the chains reliably in the second half, we didn’t see many punt returns for AJ Henning. That may have been a blessing in disguise after Henning misjudged his last return attempt and nearly turned the ball over.

All-in-all this goes down as a tremendous team victory on the road against a team who desperately needed to win. Take a breather during the bye week, and get ready to enjoy the 2nd half of this great 2021 season. Onward!

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Michigan 38 Wisconsin 17 – Game 5 Recap

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GAME 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 38-17, Michigan by 21 over Wisconsin
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 1 (+20)
CD Projection: Wisconsin by 3 (+24)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 5 RECAP @ Wisconsin

Michigan now stands a perfect 5-0 after beating Wisconsin convincingly 38-17 in Madison. While nobody would call this a perfect performance for the Wolverines, this team showed mental toughness on the road that previous teams of the Jim Harbaugh era lacked. Michigan got off to a great start in the 1st quarter and never gave the Badgers any reprieve. When key plays needed to be made, various players managed to step up to the challenge. By the 4th quarter Wisconsin had suffered too many key injuries on offense and became totally one dimensional. The vaunted Badger defense also wore down early in the 4th quarter and finally conceded a handful of explosive plays to the Wolverines.

Offensively, Josh Gattis and his staff surprised me. I expected another conservative game plan. I thought Michigan would want to manage the offense to avoid risk in an effort to challenge the Badger offense’s execution problems this season. Instead, the Wolverines displayed their most balanced attack of the season running 54% of the time and passing 46% of the time (garbage time removed at the end). Cade McNamara finished 17-28 for 197 yards and 2 TDs. More importantly, I think, Gattis showed he was willing to stretch the defense vertically down the field once again. Keeping the pressure on the Wisconsin safeties deep helped create just enough room underneath, and unclogged the box just a bit for the run game.

The FOX broadcast team showered Michigan’s defense with a lot of love, and rightfully so. Wisconsin was only able to run 9 plays in the 1st quarter, and started the game with 4 straight 3-and-out drives. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz showed a lot of guts and accuracy just before halftime to cut Michigan’s lead to 13-10 with two perfect throws over Daxton Hill. However, Dax got the last laugh. Hill flashed into the backfield for a sack on a 3rd & 9 blitz on the first drive of the 3rd quarter. The backup QB was forced to take over from there, and Wisconsin was never within one score again.

Michigan leveraged a huge special teams advantage in this game also. The Wolverines turned a muffed punt into 3 points in the 1st half. Jake Moody was 2-for-2 on field goals, including a 47-yarder. And Wisconsin shanked one kickoff out of bounds trying to avoid giving the ball to Blake Corum. One big special teams swing occurred in the 2nd quarter when the Badgers nearly gave Michigan the ball back on a squib kick with less than a minute on the clock before halftime. Wisconsin managed to recover, and started their last drive at their own 37 yard line. That field position allowed them to unleash Mertz for their first touchdown of the game. Onward to Nebraska!