Tag: Recap

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Michigan 33 MSU 37 – Game 8 Recap

GAME 8 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 33-37, MSU by 4 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.5 (-7.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 10 (-14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 8 RECAP @ MSU

It was incomplete. All of it. Any facet of this game that you look at, there is a lot more good to talk about than there is bad. But, Michigan didn’t finish. The game plans on both sides were solid, but didn’t adjust once the Wolverines were up 16 in the 3rd quarter and MSU had to empty the clip.

Offensively, Michigan got off to a rocket start by surprising everyone with a first-half passing clinic. Andrel Anthony burst onto the scene with a 93-yard touchdown, and Cade McNamara was pin-point accurate.

When the Wolverines pushed it to a 30-14 lead, I assumed Michigan would salt this away. The only questions was whether Haskins or Corum would be the one hammering. Somehow, that didn’t happen. This was the first negative EPA run performance of 2021, and it deserves a much closer look. There would be a lot on this film to be excited about offensively, if Paul B. was on the bus back to Ann Arbor. But…he ain’t.

It was sickening to listen to the FOX broadcast team highlight Mel Tucker’s pregame quote: “…body blows…In the championship round, we think they’ll flinch…” It was sickening because it was happening in front of our eyes. Defenders got out of the run gaps, and Kenneth Walker made us all pay. Interceptions were there to be had, yet hit the turf instead.

When a 2nd half lead evaporates, I always want to see under the hood on defense first. Regardless of the detail, the Wolverines could not limit the big plays the way Indiana and Nebraska did previously to the Spartans.

On special teams, Jake Moody gets a huge tip of my cap. He was 4/4 on field goals, including repeatedly hitting them at the end of the 1st half when Mel Tucker tried to ice him with all three timeouts. Additionally, the MSU return game was satisfied with Fair Catches and Touchbacks. Brad Robbins mishandled a punt snap (yikes!), but the defense managed to cover for him.

AJ Henning was solid returning the ball, but really hurt field position in the 2nd quarter when he let a punt bounce and roll. Still work to do in all three phases.

There will be a lot of bluster and big talking this week. Michigan needs to get right against Indiana and play well in all 3 phases. No Michigan team should ever shrivel in the face of adversity. Still a lot to play for. We’ll see how this version of the Wolverines manages to dig deep. Onward!

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Michigan 33 Northwestern 7 – Game 7 Recap

GAME 7 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 33-7, Michigan by 26 over Northwestern
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 21.6 (+4.4)
CD Projection: Michigan by 31 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 7 RECAP vs. Northwestern

This was definitely not the clean performance we wanted, but it’s not grounds for panic either. The Wolverines dominated nearly every statistical category. Yet, the whole game still felt somehow disjointed. It felt like the Wolverines were trying to stay balanced on offense, while grabbing another week for a few players to rest. On defense, Michigan dominated, outside of one really horrific bust in the run game.

Offensively, Michigan was aggressive in pushing the ball down the field in the pass game early. However, the deep shots missed their targets both into the wind and with the wind helping. The Wolverines racked up another 300 yards rushing (removing sack yardage). Somehow, it never quite felt like Michigan was steamrolling Northwestern despite all the yards. In the grand scheme, this game boiled down to continuously moving the chains and keeping the offense on the field. Michigan ran 87 plays (including garbage time) compared to just 55 for the Wildcats.

Northwestern was able to find a couple holes in the Michigan defense today. However, Mike MacDonald and the defensive staff were able to close those holes quickly. The most egregious bust came in the 2nd quarter when Evan Hull zipped up the middle for a 75-yard touchdown run, untouched. Outside of that highlight for the Wildcats, the Wolverine defenders strangled Northwestern to just a 28% Success Rate and 233 total yards.

Another Michigan blocked punt highlighted the special teams effort in this one. Cornelius Johnson capitalized on a new opportunity to contribute and smothered the Northwester punter. The result was a drive starting at the NW 24 yard line, and led to the touchdown that allowed Michigan to seize control for good.

All attention now turns to East Lansing, where 7-0 Michigan will invade to take on the 7-0 Spartans for the Paul Bunyan trophy and for early control of the Big Ten East division race. Onward!

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Michigan 32 Nebraska 29 – Game 6 Recap

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GAME 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 32-29, Michigan by 3 over Nebraska
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.6 (-0.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 20 (-17)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 6 RECAP @ Nebraska

Michigan fans can learn something from this 2021 Wolverines football team: enjoy the moment! The team is 6-0 heading into the bye week, and not even the most optimistic of us could have guessed that in August.

This group has a clear identity on both sides of the ball. They play hard and execute pretty cleanly, especially on special teams. They are player led, and the coaches augment the players’ positive energy. I am not saying it’s all sunshine and rainbows, but no season is. Embrace the struggle, and celebrate this team that has successfully battled through adversity together.

The offense carried Michigan to the victory today. However, I would also argue they are the main reason the game remained close. The Wolverines had a major efficiency advantage in the first half, and ran 22 more plays than Nebraska did. This ended as a 3-point victory because Michigan could not execute in the red zone and cash in more touchdowns in their 7 (!!) scoring opportunities.

Michigan racked up 219 yards rushing (sack adjusted). The Wolverines were led by Hassan Haskins’ 123 yards rushing (5.9 ypc) and 2 touchdowns. We also witnessed the return of Boom & Zoom in the 4th quarter as Haskins leapt a defender and rumbled 50 yards to set up the game-tying field goal. The drive before that saw Blake Corum zoom around the left end and race untouched into the end zone.

Defensively, Nebraska’s dual threat quarterback gave Michigan fits. Adrian Martinez went 18-of-28 for 291 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT. He also converted a handful of big 3rd downs with his legs on QB draw plays through the middle of the defense.

You have to give the Husker offensive staff a good chunk of credit. They made some very shrewd halftime adjustments. After suffering through a 21% and 17% success rate in the 1st and 2nd quarters, Nebraska bounced back to 65% success rate in the 3rd quarter, and 44% in the 4th. In the biggest moment, however, Michigan senior safety Brad Hawkins stripped Martinez as the QB ran for another 3rd down conversion. The Wolverines recovered the ball and kicked the game-winning field goal.

Once you pat Hassan Haskins on the back, the next game ball probably goes to the kicker Jake Moody. Moody was a perfect 4-for-4 on field goals, including two high-pressure kicks in the 4th quarter. He also blasted every kickoff well through the end zone to force the Cornhuskers to start nearly every drive from their own 25 yard line.

Because the Nebraska offense moved the chains reliably in the second half, we didn’t see many punt returns for AJ Henning. That may have been a blessing in disguise after Henning misjudged his last return attempt and nearly turned the ball over.

All-in-all this goes down as a tremendous team victory on the road against a team who desperately needed to win. Take a breather during the bye week, and get ready to enjoy the 2nd half of this great 2021 season. Onward!

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Michigan 38 Wisconsin 17 – Game 5 Recap

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GAME 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 38-17, Michigan by 21 over Wisconsin
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 1 (+20)
CD Projection: Wisconsin by 3 (+24)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 5 RECAP @ Wisconsin

Michigan now stands a perfect 5-0 after beating Wisconsin convincingly 38-17 in Madison. While nobody would call this a perfect performance for the Wolverines, this team showed mental toughness on the road that previous teams of the Jim Harbaugh era lacked. Michigan got off to a great start in the 1st quarter and never gave the Badgers any reprieve. When key plays needed to be made, various players managed to step up to the challenge. By the 4th quarter Wisconsin had suffered too many key injuries on offense and became totally one dimensional. The vaunted Badger defense also wore down early in the 4th quarter and finally conceded a handful of explosive plays to the Wolverines.

Offensively, Josh Gattis and his staff surprised me. I expected another conservative game plan. I thought Michigan would want to manage the offense to avoid risk in an effort to challenge the Badger offense’s execution problems this season. Instead, the Wolverines displayed their most balanced attack of the season running 54% of the time and passing 46% of the time (garbage time removed at the end). Cade McNamara finished 17-28 for 197 yards and 2 TDs. More importantly, I think, Gattis showed he was willing to stretch the defense vertically down the field once again. Keeping the pressure on the Wisconsin safeties deep helped create just enough room underneath, and unclogged the box just a bit for the run game.

The FOX broadcast team showered Michigan’s defense with a lot of love, and rightfully so. Wisconsin was only able to run 9 plays in the 1st quarter, and started the game with 4 straight 3-and-out drives. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz showed a lot of guts and accuracy just before halftime to cut Michigan’s lead to 13-10 with two perfect throws over Daxton Hill. However, Dax got the last laugh. Hill flashed into the backfield for a sack on a 3rd & 9 blitz on the first drive of the 3rd quarter. The backup QB was forced to take over from there, and Wisconsin was never within one score again.

Michigan leveraged a huge special teams advantage in this game also. The Wolverines turned a muffed punt into 3 points in the 1st half. Jake Moody was 2-for-2 on field goals, including a 47-yarder. And Wisconsin shanked one kickoff out of bounds trying to avoid giving the ball to Blake Corum. One big special teams swing occurred in the 2nd quarter when the Badgers nearly gave Michigan the ball back on a squib kick with less than a minute on the clock before halftime. Wisconsin managed to recover, and started their last drive at their own 37 yard line. That field position allowed them to unleash Mertz for their first touchdown of the game. Onward to Nebraska!

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Michigan 20 Rutgers 13 – Game 4 Recap

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GAME 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 20-13, Michigan by 7 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 21.2 (-14.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 29 (-22)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 4 RECAP vs. Rutgers

For the fan base, this game was a teeth-clenched, white-knuckled grinder. The offense did not look sharp on the ground, or through the air. The defense gave up a lot of yardage, and even the kicker and punter seemed off.

But, for the team and for the coaches, this game should be extremely valuable. There is now ample film to analyze and strengthen the team’s weaknesses during this week of practice. The game planning didn’t start especially bad, but there are also major questions about getting out-maneuvered during the half time adjustment period.

Offensively, the linemen up front have to digest this game to understand how Rutgers was able muck up the middle. Michigan’s 17% success rate in the 3rd quarter was followed by an abysmal 15% success rate in the 4th. Blake Corum wasn’t able to get loose in this game, but finished as the leading rusher with 68 yards on 21 carries (3.2 ypc). Cade McNamara was 9 of 16 passing for 163 yards, but seemed a bit off target again. Before the half, McNamara missed an open receiver in the end zone on 2nd down, and Michigan settled for a short field goal. In retrospect, that may have been a pivotal moment.

On defense, the Wolverines were worn down more than we would have predicted by the Rutgers ground game. The Scarlet Knights rolled up 196 yards rushing (4.7 ypc). Three young linebackers should find this film invaluable. Nikhai Hill-Green, Junior Colson and Kalel Mullings answered the call to duty when an injury kept senior caption Josh Ross sidelined. Rutgers had a specific scheme to slow down Aidan Hutchinson, and challenged the rest of the Wolverines to step up. In the biggest moment of the game, David Ojabo was able to answer the bell, stripping QB Noah Vedral, and Colson recovered the fumble to seal the victory.

I don’t know how valuable film study will be for the two specialists, but they will both get back to work to sharpen their execution also. Kicker Jake Moody was 2 for 3 after narrowly missing a 47-yarder wide right in the 4th quarter. Brad Robbins averaged 40.8 yards per punt, but shanked a 32-yard punt when everyone expected him to pin the Knights deep. Rutgers was able to contain Blake Corum on kick returns, but AJ Henning flashed again in the 3rd quarter punt return for 29 yards. It feels like just a matter of time before Henning hits pay dirt. Onward!

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