Tag: Recap

GAME 12 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 42-27, Michigan by 15 over Ohio State
SP+ Projection: OSU by 5.8 (+20.8)
CD Projection: OSU by 3 (+18)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 12 RECAP vs. Ohio State

What a day! It was a fitting cap to an outstanding regular season for these Michigan Wolverines. Michigan dominated on both sides of the ball on the way to a 42-27 statement victory over their greatest rival, the Ohio State Buckeyes. This is Jim Harbaugh’s first victory over the Buckeyes, and Ryan Day’s first loss to any team in the Big Ten.

Offensively, the best way to describe today is COMPLETE. As usual, the Wolverines were led by their senior running back Hassan Haskins. Haskins carried 28 times for 169 yards and a Michigan-record-tying 5 touchdowns. Blake Corum returned to action and also chipped in 87 yards and 14.5 yards per carry.

When the Wolverines wanted to throw the ball, they were also successful. Cade McNamara was 13-of-19 for 159 yards after shaking off an early interception. JJ McCarthy flashed all-world talent once again on a beautiful 31-yard connection with Roman Wilson along the right sideline. Josh Gattis brought the best game plan he’s ever put together, and the Wolverines executed to the tune of 42 points and a 72% Success Rate.

Most of the concern heading into the game was whether the Michigan defense could stand up to a historically great Ohio State offense. The feeling of what may be possible started to spread through the Big House at half time when the Buckeyes only had 13 points to show. CJ Stroud amassed 394 passing yards, and Jackson Smith-Njigba was a human highlight reel, but the Bucks could never catch the Wolverines on the score board in the 2nd half.

Aidan Hutchinson looked nearly unblockable again. His 3rd quarter sack gave him sole possession of the Michigan single season sack record, with at least two games yet to play this year. Josh Ross also stepped forward and made 2 or 3 huge stops on key short yardage situations. It was a fitting narrative that these leaders would stamp The Game with such heroic performances.

The return game was solid again, another common theme for this 2021 team. Michigan won the field position battle, if only slightly. Perhaps the biggest key was avoiding FG attempts in the red zone. Michigan had seven opportunities in scoring position, and scored 6 touchdowns without having to attempt a field goal.

Jim Harbaugh echoed Wolverine lore in his press conference, stating that the Michigan faithful will be celebrating deep into the night. He is 100% right. I pray the players and coaches can enjoy this as well. There is still work to be done, as Michigan looks for their first Big Ten Championship in 17 years next weekend. Onward!

GAME 11 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 59-18, Michigan by 41 over Maryland
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 13.1 (+27.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 22 (+19)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 11 RECAP @ Maryland

Michigan put another exclamation point on their 2021 turnaround season. The Wolverines poured it on in College Park, beating the Terrapins like a drum 59-18. All 3 phases made major impacts, and all 3 units put points on the board. Questions about this team’s ability to focus on the task at hand have been answered multiple times this season. No answer was more emphatic than the Wolverines’ performance in this trap game on the road with OSU looming.

Offensively, Cade McNamara had another rock solid performance. Despite multiple passes batted down at the line early, Cade still finished 21-for-28 (75%) for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns. JJ McCarthy made his return to the field this week as well. The Wolverines did in fact expand the McCarthy package, and the true freshman threw for a touchdown and ran for another. The wide receivers unit had a breakout also. There were a few drops in the first quarter, but both Andrel Anthony and Mike Sainristil made spectacular one-handed grabs. One more notable performance came from another true freshman, Donovan Edwards. Edwards set a Michigan record for receiving by a running back with 170 yards on 10 catches.

Defensively, the Wolverines provided too many opportunities for the Terrapins in the first half. However, QB Taulia Tagovailoa could not take advantage of those chances, and Michigan tightened the screws at halftime. The Wolverines held Maryland to 3-of-14 on 3rd down, and 0-for-2 on 4th down. DJ Turner also continued to shine, taking his 2nd interception of the season back for a touchdown.

And, not to be left out, the special teams unit made 2 game-changing plays. The first really swung the momentum in the 2nd quarter as Michigan blocked a punt while they were ahead by just 11 points. 4 plays later the Wolverines were up 18 and never looked back. The wow play that shocked me the most was a throwback return on a pooch kickoff. Former high school QB Michael Barrett fielded a pop up kick and threw across the field to AJ Henning. Henning flashed 79 yards to the end zone, and everyone began to think about the villains in Columbus. Stay the course. Beat the best…or die tryin’. Onward!

GAME 10 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-17, Michigan by 4 over Penn State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 1.8 (+2.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (-2)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 10 RECAP @ Penn State

Michigan did not play their best game of the season, but managed to claim their biggest victory to date, 21-17 over the Penn State Nittany Lions. In baseball, you can compliment a pitcher after a similar performance when he is able to get a win without his “best stuff”. I would say this game serves the same purpose for me. I think even higher of this 2021 Michigan Football team because they were able to win a big game, in a legit road atmosphere, even though the Wolverines had to fight some headwind.

Offensively, the Wolverines were led by all-world running back Hassan Haskins. Haskins carried the ball 31 times for 156 yards (5.0 ypc). He added 5 catches for another 45 yards also.

While H2 was doing a lot of heavy lifting on the ground, the Five Factors metrics point to a less successful day than Michigan has been accustomed to this year. Michigan only managed a 38% Success Rate on run plays. This is just the 2nd time in 2021 that the average Expected Points Added (EPA) on run plays was below zero.

One main reason for this was a stuffed run attempt on 4th & 2 in the 2nd quarter. That turnover on downs was worth -4.150 EPA. The remaining run plays averaged an EPA of +0.074.

12...5►

Again, Cade McNamara showed his poise and leadership in big moments for the Michigan offense. All 3 touchdowns came via the pass. McNamara was 19-of-29 (65.5%) for 217 yards to go with the 3 TDs.

In stark contrast to the called run plays, the Wolverines averaged an EPA of +0.342 on called pass plays. Erick All collected his first career touchdown reception, and it was an even he’ll never forget. All snatched McNamara’s pass on a shallow crossing route and outran the PSU defense 47 yards to the end zone for the go-ahead score in the 4th quarter.

This game was another major test for 1st year defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald. No passing tandem that Michigan has faced to this point is more dangerous than Penn State’s WR Jahan Dotson and QB Sean Clifford.

Heading into the game, many local & national pundits were still reticent to place their confidence in U-M’s secondary. The Wolverines kept a lid on Dotson, allowing 9 catches, but only 61 yards. Sean Clifford finished 23-for-43 (53.5%) for 205 yards and 1 touchdown.

Clifford’s stat line looks very pedestrian, but appeared heroic if you were able to watch the game. Michigan tallied 7 total sacks, and 4 additional hurries. Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo were absolutely impossible to block, again.

This week was also the first time Michigan did not overwhelmingly dominate the special teams phase of the game. That is more a compliment to Penn State than an indictment of the Wolverines. Jake Moody converted 3 PATs, and Brad Robbins averaged 52.4 yards per punt. PSU’s punter/kicker Jordan Stout was also booming punts, averaging 51.0 yards per kick. However, Stout did miss a 42-yard FG attempt in the 3rd quarter.

This was another shining example of Michigan playing complementary football where all 3 phases of the game were picking each other up. The Wolverines will continue to work on converting short yardage opportunities on offense, and the defense has two monster passing attacks coming next. Michigan can still improve a good amount, but this team is capable of playing championship football. Onward!