Michigan 28 Arkansas State 18 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 28-18, Michigan by 10 over Arkansas State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 28.9 (-18.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 21 (-11)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Arkansas State

The coaching staff for the Wolverines committed to returning to their run first identity, and it paid off. Michigan finished with 301 yards rushing on the day. However, there was still enough sloppiness up front to give some of the doubters oxygen. The pass protection was still a major issue, and Davis Warren let it affect him in the pocket. Warren was pulled after throwing his third interception of the day. Alex Orji entered and led a scoring drive, but we still haven’ seen him lead an efficient passing effort yet. The biggest blow for Michigan was an apparent shoulder injury suffered by Coleston Loveland, the All-American tight end.

The defense spent a majority of his game looking as dominant as we’ve come to expect. Arkansas State could only muser 280 total yards for the game. Both touchdowns came in the 4th quarter while Michigan’s 28-3 lead would define that period as garbage time. However, there was also sloppiness to worry about from the D. Most critically, the penalties after the whistle must stop. Two drives were saved for the Red Wolves on absolutely avoidable penalties.

On special teams, we didn’t get a chance to deploy our most dangerous weapon, placekicker Dominic Zvada. I am sure he was looking for an opportunity to score against his former team, but no opportunity presented itself. Returns were muted all day by mostly fair catch signals. Punter Tommy Doman still has me a little worried. His three punts today averaged 39.0 yards. But, we’ve seen multiple punts this year of less than 30 yards, including a 29-yarder in the 4th quarter of this game.

We wanted to see a come-to-Jesus moment, but this game just underwhelmed those expectations. Offensively, I think we’ll get to see what Alex Orji is capable of. He certainly adds another explosive threat to the mix, and that will be a big boost if Loveland’s injury is serious. Defensively, they look closer to a finished product, but there is another major challenge looming when USC visits next weekend.

Michigan 12 Texas 31 – Game 2 Recap

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 12-31, Texas by 19
SP+ Projection: Texas by 6.5 (-12.5)
CD Projection: Texas by 6 (-13)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. Texas

The false start by LT Myles Hinton on the first offensive snap at home was a harbinger of things to come. The Wolverines did not look sharp at any position. When there were flashes of competence, they quickly dulled into a burnt orange haze. QB Davis Warren finished 22-33 for 204 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, most of that came in the fourth quarter when all my metrics were removed as Garbage Time. Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings combined for just 14 carries and 66 yards, an average of 4.7 yards per carry.

My pregame prediction was for Michigan to score 14 points, and a victory would require the Wolverines D to hold Texas under 20. The Longhorns looked as if they could execute any set of plays they wanted, under very little pressure. I was truly shocked that Texas could amass 374 total yards in three quarters (!!) against Wink Martindale’s unit. Some of the issues were short fields and battling uphill. But, plain and simple, the Texas offense whipped up on the Michigan defense today.

Just as the offense started out with a bad omen, special teams also tripped out of the gate. Tommy Doman punted just 28 yards after the first series went 3-and-out, allowing Texas to get out to an initial 7-0 lead. There were no other critical errors, but the Wolverines were never in a position to capitalize on a potential advantage here.

In the grand scheme of things nationally, today was much more about Texas being good as opposed to Michigan being bad. But, that doesn’t make it any easier to swallow. The Wolverines need to continue to toughen up in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Every season-long goal is still available. The challenge is now one of grit and leadership for both players and coaches. Next week, Arkansas State comes in, and hopefully Michigan can build some confidence in a “Get Right Game”. Smash!

Michigan 30 Fresno State 10 – Game 1 Recap

GAME 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 30-10, Michigan by 20 over Fresno State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 27.6 (-7.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 24 (-4)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 1 RECAP vs. Fresno State

On the offensive side of the ball, the Wolverines sputtered from start to finish. For me, that was to be expected. There is one returning starter on this unit, tight end Colston Loveland. Everyone else is stepping into a bigger role, as well as new play caller Kirk Campbell. That doesn’t mean this should be acceptable internally to the team, or externally to the fans. It’s only context to understand why we saw some struggles. Quarterback Davis Warren finished 15-25 for 118 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Tonight’s backup was Alex Orji, and he chipped in 6.4 yards per carry on the ground. The improvement focus needs to shift up front on the line. Both pass protection and interior push in the run game should be much better as the season goes along.

For large stretches of the game, the Michigan defense was absolutely dominant. The Wolverines allowed less than 100 total yards in the first half. The defensive line looked unstoppable while coordinator Wink Martindale rotated in two or three guys at most positions. Then the Bulldogs managed to spring a few big plays. Surprisingly, those big plays came against All-American cornerback Will Johnson. Johnson finished with the last laugh after cashing in a pick six to put the game on ice for good in the fourth quarter.

In the kicking game, I had no idea what to expect coming into tonight. I leave afterward pleasantly surprised. Kicker Dominic Zvada consistently put the ball into the end zone on kickoffs. He also looked cool as ice while he banged home three field goals of 45, 53, & 55 yards. Punter Tommy Doman averaged 42.5 yards in net punting. And, both Tyler Morris and Semaj Morgan looked steady catching punts.

I am looking forward to crunching the numbers here and finding the appropriate context. I expected some struggles, and we definitely saw them. There were moments of horror, but also plenty of foundational strengths to build on. Next week, in comes a national championship contender to test the Wolverines. Michigan takes on No. 4 Texas at noon right back in the Big House. Smash!

Michigan 34 Washington 13 – Game 15 CFP Final Recap

NATIONAL CHAMPIONS!

GAME 15 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 34-13, Michigan by 21 over Washington
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.3 (+8.7)
CD Projection: Michigan by 7 (+14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 15 CFP FINAL RECAP vs. Washington

With the National Championship on the line, the Michigan offense stayed true to their identity and mashed the Washington Huskies on the ground for 303 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns.  The Wolverines rocketed out of the gate with two long touchdown runs from Donovan Edwards in the first quarter, one that covered 41 yards and the other from 46 yards out.  When James Turner added a field goal on Michigan’s third drive to go up 17-3 early in the second quarter, fans felt this could turn into a blowout.

But, that story did not come to be.  Over the next seven drives in the second and third quarters, the Wolverines managed just one additional field goal on a short field drive, set up by the defense.  JJ McCarthy never quite got into rhythm, and finished 10-18 for 140 yards passing and no touchdowns.  But, McCarthy was the spark that ignited the finishing flurry for Michigan.  His 22-yard scramble from near his own goal line allowed the Wolverines to flip the field position.  On their second possession of the fourth quarter, up by just seven points, JJ threw a strike to Coleston Loveland over the middle for a 41 yard backbreaker.  Two plays later, Blake Corum juked his way into the endzone for a 12-yard touchdown.  That 14-point lead felt insurmountable with just seven minutes remaining, and it was fitting for Corum to cap it off as the heartbeat of this offensive unit. 

The CFP Final game narrative fits perfectly atop the 2023 season, because the star of the show was the Michigan defense.  In the premier strength-on-strength matchup for all the marbles versus Kalen DeBoer,  Ryan Grubb, and an NFL-level offensive unit for the Huskies, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter reigned supreme.  Heisman runner-up Michael Penix was battered by the time the clock hit zero.  He finished 27-51 for 255 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions.  This is on the heels of a 430-yard, two touchdown performance the week before in the semifinals.

The defensive line proved the depth development strategy employed by Michigan in 2023 was indeed brilliant.  All seven rotational defensive lineman created pressure on Penix.  Mason Graham finished as the statistical leader with three tackles, and Kenneth Grant added a sack.  That pressure, paired with a physical game plan from the Michigan defensive backs, yielded two interceptions at critical moments.  The first interception by Will Johnson came on the opening possession of the second half and created the short field I mentioned before.  The second interception was the coronation of the National Championship season: an 81-yard celebratory return by Mike Sainristil who, like Corum, embodied the perfect player to put an exclamation point on this perfect season.

The special teams unit eliminated the huge mistakes from the prior week in the Rose Bowl.  Jay Harbaugh made a brilliant adjustment to the Washington punter’s low, line-drive style by utilizing two returners: one shallow and one deep.  James Turner was very near the upright on a short field goal, and actually hit the upright on an extra point, but made all his kicks.  And, punter Tommy Doman bounced back the best.  His kicks carried an average of 47.6 yards, and a net of 43.6.

This team is the greatest team in the land, and cannot be disputed.  They are forever National Champions.  However, the word I will always associate with this team is unflappable.  No force exists within a football stadium that could shake the 2023 Michigan Wolverines.  That proved true again for the fifteenth time on Monday, January 8th, 2024.  In my eyes, by realizing their year-long mission to win the title by defeating all comers, this is the greatest Michigan Football team in the 144-year history of the program.  Don’t agree with such a lofty statement?  Somehow they’ll show up and prove it again.  Bet!

2023 SEASON RECAP

It felt shortsighted to just do a game recap after the season the Michigan Wolverines just completed.  So, I want to layout briefly how I experienced this 2023 season, through a series of eight phases:

  1. Expectations

When Blake Corum, Zak Zinter, and the other upperclassmen decided to return for another season back in January of 2023, the championship foundation was preserved.  However, the stakes were raised immediately when Blake Corum called his shot in front of a crowd at Crisler Arena, stating that this team would win a National Title and go down in history.  There was no turning back, the boats had been burned. 

  1. Happy Mission 

Spring and summer were traditional from a program and media standpoint.  There were a few questions about starting battles at offensive tackle and at the second cornerback spot, but Jim Harbaugh reiterated that his guys were embarking on a happy mission. 

  1. Harbaugh Suspension #1 

A negotiated settlement with the NCAA related to 2020 dead period violations fell through at the eleventh hour.  Still, the Michigan administration self-imposed a three-game suspension on Jim Harbaugh and four different assistants received an opportunity to add head coach responsibilities on game day.  Developing that depth would prove to be valuable.

  1. Big Ten Dominance

When Jim Harbaugh returned and the B1G Ten season started, the Wolverines showed they had at least another gear that they had not shown through the first four games.  Back-to-back road blowouts over Nebraska and Minnesota silenced a handful of doubters who thought Michigan looked unimpressive early in the season. 

  1. Connor Stalions & Media Chaos 

A media firestorm exploded when news leaked regarding support staffer Connor Stalions leading an in-person scouting operation that skirted various NCAA regulations.  The news was timed and targeted to maximize the amplitude of the chaos, and triggered a chorus of complaints from B1G Ten coaches and administrators to new conference commissioner Tony Petitti.

  1. Harbaugh Suspension #2 

Tony Petitti acquiesced to the complaints and determined he would suspend Jim Harbaugh midseason for three more games.  Petitti also maximized the potential damage for targeting the three toughest games on the schedule, including The Game versus Ohio State.  The final salt in the wound was the timing & delivery of the announcement.   The commissioner waited until the team was in flight en route to the Penn State road game, and the Michigan contingent found out via social media.

  1. #Bet (Savage Warrior), 

In response to a failed appeal for injunction in a Washtenaw County court, the administration, the team, and the fan base was incensed with the B1G Ten conference.  Many hot takes were created and fired into the media environment, but the Michigan community rallied around a viral tweet sent by the players and echoed by even university president Santa Ono: Bet.  The one-word rallying cry was a call to fight by saying less and doing more.  The Wolverines were determined to let their actions speak.  The happy mission had transformed into one taken on by savage warriors.

  1. Confirmation & Coronation

Through all the distraction, and under the guidance of Sherrone Moore as interim head coach, the Michigan Wolverines executed a variety of game plans to continue their victorious march.  Key injuries on both sides of the ball dictated how Michigan could attack the best defenses on their schedule.  But, they made the key plays against Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa, Alabama, and Washington.  Over this stretch of games, the game narratives in my mind slowly shifted.  It started from a place of fear that this team’s opportunity could be squandered in an epic “What If…” season.  That narrative morphed to a confirmation that this team was good enough and tough enough that none of the outside forces mattered.  None of the on-field foes mattered.  The Rose Bowl semifinal and CFP final games were fitting coronations for the sport’s new kings. 

THANK YOU

I’ll conclude with a thank you to Phil Callihan for the opportunity to contribute to the site, and for his support and flexibility that allowed me to experience this magical ride from the press box with him and his family, from home with my family, and through it all with our Michigan family.  Also, thank you for reading, listening, following, and talking to us about this team.  

It’s Great…to be…a Michigan Wolverine…because the ultimate team–the greatest Michigan team of all of all time!–finished their business and brought home the ultimate prize to Ann Arbor.

Michigan 27 Alabama 20 OT – Game 14 CFP SF Recap @ Rose Bowl

GAME 14 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-20 OT, Michigan by 7 over Alabama
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 8.4 (-1.4)
CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (+4)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 14 ROSE BOWL RECAP vs. Alabama

The Michigan offense was night and day different from first half to second half. The Wolverines held a 13-10 halftime lead after gifting the Tide an extra possession, but only ran nine plays in the third quarter. Of those nine Q3 plays, only one was successful, yielding an 11% success rate for the quarter. Just when negativity started to emerge throughout Wolverine nation, JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum rose to the occasion.

Down by seven with 4:41 to go, Michigan delivered a drive for the ages. The Wolverines marched eight plays, 75 yards, highlighted by a 4th & 2 pass from McCarthy to Corum to move into Alabama territory. McCarthy finished 17-27 for 221 yards and 3 TDs, while Corum scored twice. His rushing touchdown in overtime made him the program’s all-time rushing touchdown record holder, a well deserved honor for an iconic Michigan Man.

Defensively, coordinator Jesse Minter called a masterful game. The Wolverines piled up five sacks in the first half and finished with six total for the game. As the offense sputtered in the middle of the contest, the defense repeatedly had to come up with huge stops in high leverage moments. Linebacker Junior Colson battled through multiple injuries to lead the defense with ten tackles.

No play could be any bigger than the final stop of Jalen Milroe on 4th down in overtime. Defensive end Derrick Moore made a tremendous individual play to cross the face of the offensive tackle and make contact with Milroe behind the line of scrimmage. The rest of the Wolverines finished the tackle, and the celebration was allowed to commence around the country.

The special teams unit turned in their worst performance in memory, keeping the game closer than it should have been while Michigan dominated the other phases. Semaj Morgan muffed a punt in Q1 to set up Alabama’s first half touchdown. Two poor snaps led to a missed PAT, and a missed FG. And in the most heart-stopping moment of the day, the Tide’s final punt of regulation was muffed by Jake Thaw inside the 5-yard line. No doubt Jay Harbaugh will dedicate extra practice time to cleaning these issues up this week.

This game lived up to the heavyweight slugfest that it was hyped to be. While Michigan played sloppily, they also rose to the occasion in the largest moments. In that way, this Rose Bowl championship is a fitting microcosm for the whole 2023 season. But, the work’s not finished. Onward to Houston!