Tag: Purdue

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Michigan 21 Purdue 16 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-16, Michigan by 5 over Purdue
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 21.7 (-16.7)
CD Projection: Michigan by 19 (-14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Purdue

It’s important to understand whether you are a glass-half-full person, or a glass-half-empty person. The offense, as a unit, is not playing well for a multitude of reasons. But, Jordan Marshall is carrying the program on his back in heroic fashion. And, most importantly, the Wolverines keep winning football games. Marshall carried the ball 25 times for 185 yards and scored all 3 Michigan touchdowns.

The sophomore running back stepped in to save the day after Chip Lindsey could no longer keep the game in Bryce Underwood’s hands. The freshman quarterback finished 13-of-22 for 145 yards passing, but had two very costly turnovers in the red zone that cost the team anywhere from 6 to 14 points. With 75% of the regular season completed, Underwood is at the level I would have expected back in August, but the progress feels pretty flat over the past few weeks. Outside of the plethora of injured Wolverines, nobody needs the bye week more than Bryce.

Defensively, I was prepared for frustration as Saturday progressed. First, I learned Purdue’s OC previously worked under Lincoln Riley at USC. I remember the coaching mismatch I saw a month ago, so I was ready for Purdue to hit a few plays. Second, we learned Michigan would be missing Jimmy Rolder, Cole Sullivan, Jayshawn Barham, and Rod Moore from the starting lineup. That put a lot of inexperienced guys onto the field. Add in Purdue’s preference for high tempo, and it was clear Michigan was going to give up some points tonight. When it was all said and done, I think the battered Wolverines did an admirable job. However, this film combined with the USC film will no doubt be under a microscope in Columbus.

The special teams units are still wildly inconsistent. Semaj Morgan caught one punt in the air, but turned in a -2 yard return. The previous return opportunity was another example of playing too deep and letting the ball bounce and roll for a 57 yard net for Purdue. Michigan’s punter Hudson Hollenbeck continues his up-down, feast-or-famine pattern. I am confident he is capable, but he needs to reset the floor on his bad kicks.

Jim Harbaugh said famously, “When they put ‘pretty’ on the scoreboard, we’ll worry about it.” It was after a game just like this. Winning a B1G Ten game in November is no small feat. The Wolverines have to maximize their rest and self-study during the upcoming bye week. This month will determine how we remember the 2025 team.

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Michigan 41 Purdue 13 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 41-13, Michigan by 28 over Purdue
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 36.1 (-8.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 30 (-2)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Purdue

The Wolverines didn’t have their best night on offense. Actually, it could have been their worst of the season by some metrics. It was the lowest success rate of 2023 (44%), and their lowest yards/play (6.4). However, they still managed to put 41 points on the board, scored on 7 of their 13 drives, and converted 5.4 points per scoring opportunity. While JJ was admittedly a bit off target (2nd worst performance of the year by my eye), he still completed 65% of his passes for 335 yards. If this is the floor in terms of execution for this offense, that is absolutely good enough to win the remainder of their B1G Ten games.

For most of the second half, Purdue had 6 points on the board that came off two turnovers in Michigan’s end. While the Wolverines weren’t playing in the Purdue backfield the way I expected, they still held the Boilermakers to 24% success rate and just 3.0 points per scoring opportunity. However, the last touchdown leaves a little bit of a sour taste in my mouth. The game situation (4th & 3 with :20 on the clock) told me Purdue would go for the end zone on that play if the offense took the field. Sure enough, the corner got beat on a double move and gave up a touchdown. It was just one bad snap during garbage time, but it’s not the first time that lack of focus hurt this defense. On the positive side, big hat tip to tonight’s leading tackler: Makari Paige. He is becoming a player whose presence you can feel from snap-to-snap.

On special teams, I feel a bit let down as I started to get comfortable with Tyler Morris back on punt return. His error was not easy to spot on the muffed punt. It looks somewhat random that a blocker gets hit with the ball. The key is, though, Morris has to be more aggressive getting to that spot, and also communicating to the rest of his guys to clear the way. Jake Thaw took over from that point forward and did a fine job, including a big return of 32 yards. James Turner looked great on his FG attempts and extra points.

In the context of purely football and season objectives, this is another dominant performance for a 9-0 team that has a great chance to compete for a national title. Looking at the schedule, I wasn’t surprised to see a little discontinuity the week before playing Penn State. And, given the media firestorm around Signgate, I think this team did a fine job keeping the main thing the main thing. Hopefully they can keep their heads down and keep grinding, while conference and school leaders can hash out the rest of this drama without undercutting this team. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 9 vs. Purdue

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines managed to continue increasing their level of dominance by steamrolling the Spartans in East Lansing 49-0.  That was followed by the least restful bye week in history as Michigan is embroiled in a massive media storm and investigation centered on the Connor Stalions’ scouting and recording scandal, nicknamed Signgate.

NEXT UP: vs. Purdue: SP+ 82nd, -4.4

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 36.1, Michigan Win Probability 98%

Michigan remained atop the SP+ rankings while idle.  Purdue is kicking off a rebuild after Jeff Brohm left for Louisville. Ryan Walters, the former defensive coordinator for Illinois, has taken over as head coach.  

Michigan Offense (7th) vs. Purdue Defense (65th) 

Walters has a defensive scheme that was highly effective for Illinois in his last job in Champaign.  The main challenge of installing the system during this rebuild at Purdue is the heavy reliance on man-to-man coverage by the secondary.  The Boilermakers think they have found talented players who can thrive on an island in coverage, but they are freshmen for this season.  I expect JJ McCarthy to have plenty of opportunities to exploit various 1-on-1 matchups for more big pass plays.

Perhaps the run game is more interesting as the calendar turns to November.  The Michian ground attack has been good with a 52% success rate so far this season. But, there is still untapped potential as the best defenses on the schedule are waiting this month.  Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards have yet to shake loose consistently once reaching the second level.  If we’re going to see the increased explosiveness in November, we should start to see a few more long runs this week against the Boilermakers.

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Purdue Offense (86th)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Michigan’s strength in the trenches lines up against a significant weakness for Purdue.  The Boilers have some injury problems on the offensive line.  The Wolverines will look to exploit those backups and create pressure that requires QB Hudson Card to make immediate decisions and quick throws.  

While the bye week brought many headaches for the program, the defensive unit needed the recovery time more than any other group.  We’ll see if Mason Graham is still wearing the club on his hand as he lines up at nose guard.  Also, we can get a better sense for who will be rotating into the secondary.  Reports are that Will Johnson and Rod Moore are much closer to fully healthy, but I am interested to see who gets early snaps at the other corner & safety positions.

PREDICTION: Football teams have to be able to bounce back and respond in the face of adversity.  We discuss this dynamic all the time, and the assumption is that the adversity presents itself on the field.  For the 2023 Michigan Wolverines, it seems that the primary challenge for the final stretch of the season will come from off the field.  The players have consistently modeled the right attitude and approach, summarized best by JJ McCarthy: they focus on “keeping the main thing the main thing”.  The Wolverines have to avoid trying to press and doing too much to answer critics and skeptics from outside the program. I think Michigan might face some early rhythm & timing issues coming out of the bye, but once they click we will see more of the same: dominance.
Michigan 40 Purdue 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 30 Purdue 17)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 11/1/23, 8-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 29.2
    • SP+ Offense: 7th (↓1), 39.5
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (same), 10.6
    • SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓1), 0.4
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1494
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1520
  • CFP Rank: 3rd
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M FOOTBALL 2012: BIG TEN OPENER WAS A MUST WIN FOR BOTH WOLVERINES AND BOILERMAKERS-THE WOLVERINES DOMINATED PURDUE 44 TO 13

WOLVERINES BEST GAME OF THE YEAR SO FAR

The sixth week of the 2012 season is already completed, and before Saturday’s game no one could be reasonably sure as to how good the 133rd edition of the Wolverines could be.  How likely were prospects for a competitive run at a Big Ten title to materialize?  Would the Wolverines at 2-2 get out of the gate faster than 3-1 Purdue?  They not only owned a better record at 3-1, but almost beat the Irish in Notre Dame Stadium.  The Boilers also harbored visions of winning the Big Ten, and had the comfort of their home crowd at Ross-Ade.  This was a crucial opener for both teams and, without doubt, the Wolverines played their best game of the year, offensively, defensively, and on special teams. 

PRE-GAME KEYS:

  • The shadow of Michigan’s missteps at Notre Dame still lingered.  Denard came off what he called his worst game ever, and no one could argue that.   For once, he was not the hero of the game, his 4 interceptions and red zone fumble put him in unfamiliar territory.  He owned up to his responsibilities and promised improvements.  Could the Wolverines limit their remarkable number of offensive turn overs ?  Actuality:  Denard was at his best, and lived up to his promises as his running paced the Wolverine victory in spectacular fashion.  His passing complemented his running with a  TD and 105-yards.  He ran twenty four times for 235-yards.  It was his 5th career 200-yard rushing game, and produced but a single turnover, a fumble recovered by the Boilers. He produced a number of long and spectacular runs, breaking Michigan and Big Ten yardage records.
  • Would the receivers produce and would the other than Denard’s ground game prosper?  Devin Gardner snagged 2 for 31-yards and a made a great catch for a 38-yard TD.  Jeremy Gallon had 3 catches and 37-yards with a long of 28-yards. Roy Roundtree came up with a couple.  Devin Funchess had one for 14-yards. The game plan set Denard’s legs in motion, used passing sparingly, and was an outstanding success, putting the Wolverines on path to an important win in alien territory.  While Fitz Toussaint had 17 carries for a paltry 19-yards, and a 1.1-yard average, he scored two TDs.  The lack of running back production is a  concern expressed by Coach Hoke.  Jeremy Gallon ran some end arounds in addition to receiving, and was very elusive.  Thomas Rawls’ TD came in mop up time, but he ran with authority.
  • The Notre Dame loss set some to wondering about Coach Borges’ management of the passing game.  At Notre Dame, in the first half Denard, threw 4 interceptions. Why were 2 more long passes called to be thrown by an obviously rattled QB, after the first two were intercepted?  Why wasn’t Denard rested for a series?  Would all this become forgettable water over the dam in the Big Ten opener? Actuality:  Its now water over the dam.  M’s sparse passing game was well managed and effective. Denard actually threw one away when trapped.
  • Could the offensive line provide better pass protection and better run blocking to provide the points necessary to win away from home, an area in which the offense has struggled? Against a hurry up spread offense?  Can they tackle in space?  Cause turn overs? Is our defense tougher than theirs? Actuality:  An emphatic yes to all the above, except the better run blocking for all but Denard. Purdue lost four turnovers- two interceptions and two fumbles. M fumbled once when Denard possibly held the read option too long on a play where he got intense pressure.  M won the TO battle.  The defense was workman like and effective.  They are progressing.
  • Was Kirk Herbstreit wrong picking Purdue to win? Actuality: It is most satisfying to say yes to this one, but it was hard to tell before the game as Purdue sports some decent football assets, like QB Caleb TerBush. Prior to Saturday he took over the position after Robert Marve was injured in the 20-17 loss to Notre Dame. The Boilers were alleged to be blessed with the best receivers M has faced this year, and they have a jumbo and talented defensive line.  Actuality: QB TerBush was rushed and sacked, and had a few catchable passes dropped by receivers. He had 105-yards on 16 throws, and one TD, with one interception returned down the sideline for a 63-yard TD by M’s Raymon Taylor. On this day his performance appeared fairly ordinary, but that is a credit to the Michigan defense, which played very well. Purdue did not throw down field much.  TerBush was relieved late in the game by Robert Marve, who returned from prior injury with some effectiveness, but also threw an interception to Thomas Gordon.  That one was returned 19-yards. Marve completed 5 of 8 for 43-yards, returning to action after recovery from a torn ACL.  He did provide a lift to the Boilers when he came in, but fortunately not enough to change results. Defensively, the Boilers LB’s are not as good as their down linemen.
  • Was home field advantage significant? Actuality: The Ross-Ade denizens are relatively close to the action in their 62,500 seat edifice, which is surfaced by prescription athletic turf.  Ross-Ade ambience is enhanced by the Golden Girl, and her companions in silver.  Actuality: Not a factor as the Wolverines went up early, the Purdue students were on break, and there was plenty of Maize and Blue to behold.  Only a crowd of approximately 50,000 attended on a great fall day.
  • Was the bye week helpful to the Wolverines?  Actuality: As M has won nine of its last ten outings after a bye week, it was business as usual.
  • Would special teams play be a factor contributing to victory or defeat? Actuality: Purdue kick-off returns were good enough to draw the attention of Coach Hoke in his on field after game remarks. The Boilers routinely had great return results.  They had many opportunities and too often started their offense at the M 35.   They ran 8 KOs back for 183-yards.  M’s Norfleet (3 returns for 76-yards with an average of 25.3) was no slouch either. Will Hagerup punted superbly. M’s Delonte Hollowell scooped up a Boiler muffed KO in the second quarter.  Brandon Gibbons hit FGs of 29, 42, and 27-yards, missing one of 44-yards that hit the cross bar.

THE GAME:

Michigan kicked off and the defense forced a Purdue punt.  They also made the most of their 1st offensive opportunity, holding the ball for eight minutes and 48 seconds.  This 17-play drive extended 78-yards and resulted in a 1-yard Fitz Toussaint TD.19 offensive players participated, providing perhaps the lengthiest drive since 1976.

With 111-yards of offense, and 12 minutes, 11-seconds of ball control, the first quarter was an almost perfect M start.

The  combination of a Purdue penalty, DRob running, Gallon and Garner receptions, and the short yardage TD by Toussaint, put M ahead and they never looked back. They ended the  1st quarter up 7 to nothing. 

The Wolverines made up for any shortage in points in the second quarter, scoring 21 points.  Fitz Toussaint scored on a one yard run, after an 8-play 60-yard drive which included a Devin Funchess grab, and a 38-yard Denard run, making it 14 zip Wolverines. 

Then Raymon Taylor grabbed a Purdue throw and scampered 63-yards down the sideline for a TD, and it was 21 zip.  Taylor showed why he has latched onto a starting cornerback spot.  This was a fantastic start.  There was hope for a blowout. Purdue moved downfield easily, but the Wolverine defense held them to a 40-yard field goal to make it 21-3. 

Before Robinson’s fumble (at the M 36) gave Michigan’s momentum a cold shower, he tossed a great 23-yard TD to a leaping Devin Gardner crossing the end zone.  A beautiful catch! Think Braylon Edwards.  Gallon contributed a 28-yard reception during the drive.  28-3 has a nice ring to it.  But Robinson’s fumble provided the Boilers a short field opportunity, and they made the most of it on a 4-yard TD pass.  The half ended  28-10. 

That half was the result of a great offensive and defensive effort, a great half of football against a decent team. Robinson was simply magnificent, notwithstanding the fumble. 

The third quarter was a bit of a standoff with M getting 3 on a 29-yard FG which completed an 8 play, 61-yard drive for a 31-10 lead. Denard contributed  an exciting 46-yard jaunt. 

Early in the 4th, the Boilers answered with a 37-yard FG.  The defense stopped a drive which looked to go all the way, and Gibbons answered with two FGs of his own,  One FG which covered 42-yards (Robinson had a 59-yard run to the Purdue 16), and one FG from 27-yards out. Now it was 37-13.  The concern was that M did not complete these drives in the end zone. Hoke referenced this in his post game comments. 

Thomas Rawls capped the scoring late in the game, with an outstanding 7-yard run to complete a 4-play, 33-yard drive for the 44-13 final score.  The entire 33-yard drive belonged to Thomas Rawls. 

ROBINSON BREAKS RECORDS

Denard is revising the Michigan and Big Ten record books. He now owns the Big Ten career quarterback rushing record with 3,905 career rushing yards. He has tied Mike Hart for career 200-yard rushing games. He is now in 5th place among M’s all time rushing leaders, passing Butch Woolfolk and Chris Perry. 

WHERE DO THE WOLVERINES GO FROM HERE?

It now appears the Wolverines will be able to compete well in the Big Ten, as long as they are reasonably healthy at key positions.  They have an influx of young talent that is beginning to step up. Note Funchess, Taylor, Norfleet and others. Desmond Morgan and Jake Ryan are improving every week as is Q. Washington.  

The Wolverines will return to the friendly confines of Michigan Stadium to host Illinois.  Forget the Illini record, they will provide excitement and competition. 

Go Blue!

 

 

 

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NO SPOILERMAKERS, NO BIG DRUM, NO GOLDEN GIRL, NO SILVER TWINS, AND NO WOLVERINE SLIDE. MICHIGAN 36- PURDUE 14

By Andy Andersen

Purdue’s Boilermaker’s left the above home, in losing to the determined Wolverines at Michigan Stadium Saturday.  The Wolverines drummed out a much needed Big Ten victory, 36-14.

That the Boilers were made to steam out of Ann Arbor with a loss was very important to the well-being of this edition of the Wolverines on the heels of their recent physical beat down in Spartan Stadium.  It appears the bye week was very beneficial.  A seven and one record at this point in the season, and a chance for more, is as welcome as it was unexpected.

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