Tag: Lloyd Carr

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Looking Back — Michigan Football Season Openers – 1995 Virginia

Looking Back is a Special Feature by Jeff Cummins

College football is built on a season that builds to a crescendo. Still, there’s something about the opening game. No matter which teams are playing, there’s a sense of excitement that comes with the clean slate of a new season.

For Michigan, the most memorable opening day in recent memory occurred in 1995. The Wolverines had a new coach, Lloyd Carr, who was hired as an interim coach until the university could find someone more qualified to guide the football program. By the end of the first game, one thing was clear: Carr’s Michigan teams would certainly provide their moments of excitement.

The game started in ferociously hot weather, and for the first three quarters, most Michigan fans and alumni were hoping that then-athletic director Joe Roberson was poring through his Rolodex, looking for qualified candidates to replace Carr. It was also the first time that many fans saw the Barber twins, Ronde and Tiki. Suddenly, all the noise was about Virginia, and Michigan fans were getting just a little bit restless.

The game continued into the fourth quarter, and slowly, Michigan began to show a little fight. At the time, many people thought it was too late, but the Wolverines kept plugging away, one play at a time. Finally, the Wolverines were left with a 4th down and 10 yards to go from the Virginia 15-yard line, fully aware that they needed it all on the last play. For one play, quarterback Scott Dreisbach became a legend, even if it was only for a fleeting moment. Dreisbach faded back, and threw to receiver Mercury Hayes, who ran a buttonhook right into the northeast corner of the north end zone. Amazingly, Hayes caught the ball with his feet barely in bounds, and no time left on the clock. Having trailed virtually the entire game, Michigan took the lead at the only time it really mattered, at the end of the game. Virginia coach George Welsh had the option to make Michigan attempt the try for point after the touchdown, knowing that if Virginia blocked the kick and returned it all the way, the Cavaliers would get two points and the win, but Welsh opted to let the result stand. Michigan had completed arguably the most memorable comeback in its illustrious history, topping Virginia, 18-17.

Ironically, neither Hayes nor Dreisbach went on to distinguished careers. Lloyd Carr? Well, let’s just say that the “interim” tag was removed at the end of the season.

Thanks to ABC Sports, YouTube poster RxWolverine, and YouTube for the following broadcast. As always, neither umgoblue.com nor I own anything, and we do not profit off this blog post in any way.

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Michigan vs Ohio State Football – Looking Back – 2003

Looking Back is a Special Feature Highlighting
Key Rivalry Games by Jeff Cummins

The fifth and final installment of this year’s series looking back at the football rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State takes us to 2003. Just a year before, Ohio State had defeated Michigan in a tightly contested game, before a partisan Ohio State crowd that was exceptionally intense. The Wolverines fought hard that day, but things just didn’t go their way.

Twelve months later, the Wolverines were poised for a rematch, fully aware that the 2003 version of “The Game” would be the 100th playing of the rivalry. By the time the Buckeyes arrived in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines were ready for them.

Michigan leaders John Navarre and Chris Perry remembered the previous year vividly. Despite playing a very good game, the Wolverines were not able to make the necessary plays at the necessary times. That was not going to happen again.

From the opening kickoff, the Wolverines were in control of the 2003 game. Well, almost. Ohio State started well, gaining eight yards on its first two plays. On 3rd down and 2 yards to go, Ohio State quarterback Craig Krenzel threw to tight end Ben Hartsock, who was wrapped up immediately for no gain by Michigan safety Ernest Shazor, and the Buckeyes had to punt. The teams then traded a few possessions before Michigan took over at its own 11-yard line. Perry then gained a hard eight yards, zigging and zagging through the Ohio State defense, something he would do all day. A couple of plays later, Navarre and Perry connected on a screen pass for 11 yards, and suddenly the Wolverines were cooking. Near the end of the quarter, receiver Steve Breaston lined up under center and followed his right guard into the end zone on an option play to complete an 89-yard drive, giving the Wolverines a 7-0 lead that they would never relinquish.

Michigan extended its lead in the second quarter when Navarre connected with receiver Braylon Edwards, who broke a pair of tackles and went 64 yards for a touchdown. Suddenly, the game had established its identity: The Wolverines would lead with Perry on the ground, and when the Buckeyes committed too many players to stop Perry, Navarre would answer with a big pass play. A few minutes later, Navarre and Edwards connected again on a 23-yard scoring pass to give the Wolverines a 21-0 lead at halftime.

In the second half, Ohio State began to mount a comeback, and by the time Lydell Ross went over from two yards out in the fourth quarter, Michigan’s lead was down to just one touchdown. At that point, the Wolverines went back to basics, putting their faith in Perry and the offensive line. It was a wise decision, as Perry ran 15 yards for a touchdown to extend Michigan’s lead to 35-21, and the Wolverines were never threatened after that.

The victory gave Michigan the Big Ten championship. The Wolverines fell to USC in the Rose Bowl, but their performance in the regular season, with convincing victories over Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State, had firmly reestablished them as a national power.

Many thanks to ABC for the attached game broadcast. As always, we own nothing, and this blog post and video are intended strictly for the enjoyment of readers.

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Michigan vs Ohio State Football – Looking Back – 2002

Looking Back is a Special Feature Highlighting
Key Rivalry Games by Jeff Cummins

The fourth installment of this year’s series looking back at the football rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State takes us to 2002. Ohio State wasn’t yet the football monster it is today, or at least most people didn’t perceive it to be. The 2002 game was a tight, hard-fought contest, with Michgan playing very well on the road, in an extremely difficult environment.

But in the end, none of that mattered. Ohio State won, Michigan lost, and from the Michigan perspective, it was painful. Yes, the team played valiently. But it was painful, nonetheless.

Michigan coach Lloyd Carr said after the game that they knew at halftime they would need a touchdown to win. They almost got a touchdown, but not quite.

After Ohio State took a 14-9 lead with 4:55 to play, but the Wolverines still had plenty of fight left in them. Quarterback John Navarre led Michigan on a pair of drives, the last one getting to the Ohio State 24-yard line. From there, Michigan had time for just one play left. With Ohio State expecting pass, defensive back Will Allen intercepted the pass just short of the goal line, and the game was over. Ironically, the Buckeyes were led by quarterback Craig Krenzel, who hailed from Uitca, Michigan.

Michigan enjoyed solid performances from a pair of juniors, Navarre and tailback Chris Perry. Stoic and resolute, both players were already plotting their revenge against the Buckeyes, but that’s a story for another day. Maybe tomorrow, in fact.

The Buckeyes, as we all know, went on to earn a controversial win against Miami in the Tostitos Fiest Bowl, giving Ohio State its first national championship since 1968. Michigan concluded its season with a visit to the Outback Bowl, where the Wolverines began a long tradition of defeating Florida, earning a 38-30 win over the Gators in the first meeting between the two schools.

Many thanks to ESPN Classic for the film of this game. As always, we own nothing, and this film and blog post are intended strictly for the enjoyment of readers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1I1FoiHh7c

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Michigan vs Ohio State Football – Looking Back – 1995

Looking Back is a Special Feature Highlighting
Key Rivalry Games by Jeff Cummins

The first installment of this year’s series looking back at the football series between Michigan and Ohio State takes us back to 1995. Most people still had not heard of the Internet, Bill Clinton was the president, and the national economy was just about to take off. For the Michigan football team, 1995 was “The Tale of Two Cities.” “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”

The worst of times came in the offseason, when head coach Gary Moeller had an incident at a local restaurant and was subsequently removed from his job. It was the best of times because Lloyd Carr, a little known defensive coordinator, was named the interim head caoch.

Let the record show that Lloyd Carr is probably among the best “interim” hires of all time.

In Carr’s first game, Michigan trailed almost the entire game until Scott Dreisbach found Mercury Hayes in the corner of the north end zone for a last-second touchdown pass to give Michigan an 18-17 win. After that, Michigan played classic mid-90s Wolverine football for most of the season. As usual, the week leading up to the Michigan-Ohio State game proved to be the most interesting week of the season.

Ohio State had won the previous season, and reporters asked Ohio State receiver Terry Glenn what he thought of the team’s chances against Michigan. Glenn, a former walk-on, was enjoying a breakout season in 1995, but his quote fueled Michigan’s pregame fire. Then Tim Biakabutuka proved to be the catalytic converter.

Biakabutuka had assured Carr in a midweek conversation that the Wolverines would be ready for Ohio State, and he delivered in legendary fashion. “Touchdown Tim” spent much of the afternoon bouncing off would-be tackles, and turning single-digit gains into gains of double-digit yardage. The Buckeyes fought back valiantly, but every time they came back, Michigan had the right answer for them.

Early in the game, Ohio State tested Michigan’s freshman cornerback, Charles Woodson. As the game wore on, that strategy backfired for the Buckeyes. Woodson had two interceptions on the day, the second coming when he outjumped Glenn for the ball and returned it 23 yards, allowing Michigan to line up in victory formation and run out the clock.

Woodson’s interception completed a 31-23 win for the Wolverines, who finished the regular season with nine wins and three losses. But when you beat Ohio State, few people are really thinking about the losses.

Many thanks to ABC, which owns all the rights to this game. As always, we own nothing and do not profit in any way from this blog post, which is intended purely for the enjoyment of readers.

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By the Numbers: Comparing Harbaugh’s First 5 Seasons

Last January, Phil and I discussed a comparison of Jim Harbaugh’s 4-year coaching record to the last 4 years of Lloyd Carr’s coaching career (Harbaugh and Carr each had an advantage in 7 metrics, with 3 ties).  My general feeling was that Harbaugh had returned Michigan to the level at which Lloyd had left it. In my eyes, that made the 2019 season pivotal for the Harbaugh era.  Phil and I wondered whether the program would continue to rise, and I was certainly optimistic.

Now, in February of 2020, we have more information to process, and we can complete a 5-year analysis.  After Michigan completed a frustrating 9-4 season in 2019, and the 2003 Big Ten Championship season (10-3) gets added to the Carr side of the ledger, the comparison swings in Lloyd Carr’s favor.   Carr has an advantage on 7 metrics, Harbaugh in 4, with 2 ties. The advanced metrics were ignored for lack of 2003 & 2004 data, but Lloyd’s 3-year average would have been 3 more wins for him. This seemed like bad news for a Harbaugh optimist like myself.  So, I wanted to extend the comparison to see how the Harbaugh era, as it stands right now, compares to some other notable college football coaches.

METHOD

In addition to Lloyd Carr, I chose these coaches to compare to Harbaugh: Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer, Mark Dantonio, Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney, Brian Kelly, James Franklin, & Chris Petersen.  From the Carr comparison, my curiosity immediately jumped to Jim Tressel’s final five seasons at Ohio State.  After completing that comparison, I wanted a better apples-to-apples comparison so I wanted to use the first five seasons (of their current tenure) for the rest of the coaches I selected.  In addition to comparing the coaches’ records through their first five seasons, I also wanted to be able to use consistent metrics. The advanced statistical rankings didn’t exist back into the early 2000s, and recruiting has also changed significantly since then.  Each metric was compared head-to-head with Harbaugh’s results to create an Advantage %. Records and stats came from Sports-Reference.com.  Recruiting rankings came from 247sports.com.  F+, FEI, & S&P+ rankings come from FootballOutsiders.com.   Here are the 17 metrics that I compared:

  • Final Rankings in F+, FEI, & SP+  systems (SP+ now on ESPN in 2019)
  • Overall W-L record
  • Offensive Pass Yds / Game & Rush Yds / Game
  • Points Scored / Game
  • Defensive Pass Yds / Game & Rush Yds / Game allowed
  • Defense Points Allowed / Game
  • Big Ten W-L record (if applicable)
  • W-L Record vs. OSU (or record vs. Michigan for OSU coaches)
  • W-L Record vs. MSU (record vs. Michigan for Dantonio)
  • W-L Record vs. Notre Dame (record vs. Michigan for Kelly)
  • W-L Record in Bowl Games
  • Number of NFL Draftees
  • Recruiting Class Rank (cycle following the season)

RESULTS

ANALYSIS

The summary table above lists the coaches from least favorable comparison for Jim Harbaugh (Jim Tressel – final 5 seasons) to most favorable (James Franklin) sorting by ascending Harbaugh Advantage Percentage.  Using this method, Jim Harbaugh falls between Lloyd Carr (final 5 seasons) and Chris Petersen’s 5-year tenure at Washington. 

If we only look at the initial 5-year start for each coach (removing Tressel & Carr), it’s clear that Nick Saban and Urban Meyer are in a league of their own.  Urb won a national title during the first playoff season in year 3, and made a return to the playoff in year 5. Saban won his 2nd national title at Alabama in year five, and went back-to-back in year six.  

Once you move past those two historically successful coaches, there is a very tight grouping between Jim Harbaugh and the other 5 coaches I selected.  Each coach averaged a 9-4 record through his first 5 seasons. I was surprised that using my Advantage Percentage, Harbaugh compares favorably to all 5 of those coaches, despite Brian Kelly reaching the BCS Championship game in year 3.  I also included each coach’s Year 6 record for a possible glimpse into the future. Year 6 results range from unacceptable (7-6 for Dantonio) to achievable (11-2 in 2019 for Franklin).  

One other interesting note on Big Ten record: If Harbaugh had managed one more B10 victory, his average record would have rounded up to 7-2, and it would have been +1 over Carr.  Had he suffered one more loss, the average record would have rounded to 6-3 and been -1 to Carr. The program has clearly returned to the Carr level. I think we’re all very anxious to take the next step forward.