Tag: Indiana

Posted on

Michigan 52 Indiana 7 – Game 7 Recap

GAME 7 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-7, Michigan by 45 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 36.5 (+8.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 35 (+10)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 7 RECAP vs. Indiana

In this game, the Michigan offense dealt with the positive and negative sides of the coin through the whole game. The positive: JJ McCarthy and the passing attack were hyper-efficient yet again. JJ went 14-for17, racking up 222 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jack Tuttle took over in the 4th quarter and went 5-for-5 and also connected for a touchdown against his former team. The negative: McCarthy was sacked as many times in this game as he had been all of the first six games combined. Also, the running game produced a 40% success rate, two points behind what Indiana could muster (42%). There is a lot to learn from this week’s film sessions.

I expected Indiana to be able to find some success early in this game. For one, they were coming off a bye week, so hey had some extra time to prepare. Also, they canned their previous offensive coordinator before the bye, so significant change was inevitable, and really they could only improve from where they had been. That said, the Wolverine defenders were disruptive today, forcing 4 turnovers. That was plenty to boost the Michigan offense out of a slow start, and snatched the fire out of the Hoosiers.

Special teams MVP goes to Tommy Doman for pounding touchbacks on many kickoffs today, avoiding the extra touches for Indiana’s best player Jaylin Lucas. Special mention to Tyler Morris who electrified the crowd again on a 27-yard punt return in the 2nd quarter.

The Wolverines didn’t play their best game, and still finished ahead by 6+ touchdowns on he scoreboard. We have heard Jim Harbaugh happily accept an “ugly win” in the past. He may have just invented the “ugly blowout”. Regardless, Michigan is 7-0 and heads to East Lansing for rivalry week before taking a much deserved week off. Onward!

Posted on

Michigan 29 Indiana 7 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 29-7, Michigan by 22 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 17.9 (+4.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 22 (✅)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Indiana

That was a clean sweep on the Five Factors for Michigan. Those games usually result in a ho-hum response from the media and from fans. However, that is exactly what this team needed. They played to their strengths, tried to answer a few questions from previous weeks, and rolled to a 3-score victory.

Offensively, Hassan Haskins stepped forward to carry this team once again. Haskins had 168 yards on 27 carries, both career highs. H2 was without his normal running mate, as Blake Corum only played a handful of snaps before retreating to the locker room for further evaluation of an injury.

Also, Cade McNamara showed that he is still the right QB to lead this unit. He completed 10-of-18 passes for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. Josh Gattis clearly wanted to return to a balanced approach with his run game and passing attack. The play calls were 50/50, and yardage was almost equal as well.

The Michigan defense was back to being dominant for large swaths of this game. Outside of one drive where Indiana QB Donaven McCulley broke tackles and scrambled for big plays, the Wolverines really suffocated the Hoosiers. Indiana finished with just 195 total net yards for the whole game. While the defense bottled up the IU rushing attack (average 0.036 Expected Points Added per play), the Wolverines really attacked Indiana when they dropped back to pass. The Hoosiers’ pass plays averaged a negative EPA on the day, -0.129.

Jake Moody led the special teams unit, and cashed in another 3 field goals today. While his kickoffs were high and short, Indiana wanted no part of testing the coverage units. The return game was particularly impacted by injuries in this one. AJ Henning and Andrel Anthony both were dinged up in addition to Corum. DJ Turner filled in as the next man up returning punts. Onward to Happy Valley!

2021-09-UM-29-Indiana-7-Final-StatsDownload
Posted on

By the Numbers: Game 9 vs. Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines let a 16-point lead slip through their fingers in East Lansing during a painful 37-33 loss to the Spartans.  Michigan did many positive things against Michigan State, but just couldn’t come up with the critical plays in high leverage moments.

NEXT UP: vs. Indiana: 61st, 5.3

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 17.9, Michigan Win Probability 85%
Indiana has crashed back to earth after living a charmed existence in 2020 as everyone’s favorite COVID team.  QB Michael Penix can’t stay healthy, and the Hoosiers have also lost their best defensive coverage guys to injury.  

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Indiana Defense (41st) 

SP+ does not adjust for injured players who are missing, and that is the story of Indiana’s defense.  Their defensive backfield looked elite coming into the 2021 season.  However, they are hobbled by major injuries, most notably to cornerback Taiwan Mullen.  This matchup feels similar to how the Wolverines lined up with the Washington Huskies back in Week 2, except Indiana has lost their best cover guys.  I will be concerned if Michigan struggles for more than a series or two with their starters in this game.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Indiana Offense (74th)

Mike MacDonald and the Wolverine defense need a get right game.  The Hoosiers should be just what the doctor ordered.  Former Michigan backup QB Nick Sheridan has been uninspiring as offensive coordinator in Bloomington.  I don’t believe Indiana will be able to protect their own backup QB Donaven McCulley.  Indiana has come up with troublesome game plans in years past, though.  I expect the Hoosiers will attempt to exploit the Wolverines’ alignment issues versus tempo that proved to be fatal last week in East Lansing. 

PREDICTION:  Michigan will be challenged again to focus on the task at hand without looking ahead.  Nearly every matchup on paper is a sizable advantage for the Wolverines, and they are 3 touchdown favorites.  The team will not be able to disprove their most vocal doubters against this under-manned Hoosier team.  The goal must be to clean up the personnel issues on defense.  We also want to see confidence continue to build on offense.  Cade McNamara is coming off his best performance.  Now, Michigan fans would love to see a full, completely balanced performance from both the passing and rushing attacks.  I believe we’ll see continued success in terms of yardage, but this probably won’t be the game where Josh Gattis answers the red zone touchdown questions.

Michigan 32 Indiana 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 25 Indiana 17)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/31/21), 7-1

  • SP+ Overall: 5th (↑2), 20.8
  • SP+ Offense: 22nd 18th (same), 35.9
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.7
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (same), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (↓3), 1,048

Coaches’ Poll: 10th (↓4), 1,050

CFP Rank: 7th

U-M Resume after Game 8
Posted on

Michigan 21 Indiana 38 – Week 3 Recap

WEEK3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-38, Indiana by 17 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 2.1 (-19.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 1 (-18)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 3 RECAP @ Indiana

For the second week in a row, Michigan was outplayed and lost.  In some sense you have to give the Hoosiers the respect they deserve.  That doesn’t help soothe the deep disappointment for this team.  Jim Harbaugh must go back to the drawing board and get all his guys onto the same page.  If he cannot keep the team together through this challenging season, it will be hard for me to believe he can restore the program.

The Michigan offensive line was behind the eight ball right away without both starting tackles.  The running game was only able to produce an 8% success rate, and 1.6 yards per play.  On the first watch, I didn’t see very much read-option, if at all.  I don’t know why there is such hesitation to use Joe Milton in the run game, but it’s clearly been taken out of the game plan.  I will give Gattis and Joe Milton a lot of credit for bouncing back in the second half.  The offense was dangerous enough in the 2nd half to threaten the whole field, but still couldn’t click in the most critical spots.

The Hoosiers copied the Michigan State offensive game plan of chuck and hope versus the Michigan corners.  It was almost as successful this week.  There was a clear commitment to back off into more zone coverages to take some heat off Vincent Gray and Gemon Green.  Indiana was able to find large holes and Michael Penix had a career day.  There was pressure on Penix, and Michigan caused some errant throws.  This was despite Aiden Hutchinson leaving with an apparent foot or ankle injury in the first quarter.   The defense managed to slow Indiana down in the 2nd half, but could not get off the field on key plays.  Indiana ran 87 snaps on offense, compared to just 52 for Michigan.

Posted on

By the Numbers: Week 3 @ Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan State upset the Wolverines 27-24, as Michigan was outplayed at home in stunning fashion by their rivals. 

NEXT UP: @ Indiana: 25th, 11.5

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 2.1, Michigan Win Probability 55%
The Hoosiers are 2-0, and have performed pretty much as expected according to SP+.  The win over Penn State was a statistical anomaly.  Indiana would have lost if Penn State had taken a knee instead of handing off.  They were also kick-started by two short fields in the first half against Rutgers.

Michigan Offense (29th) vs. Indiana Defense (26th) 
The Michigan rushing attack will be my main offensive key on Saturday.  Indiana ranks 10th in Big Ten rushing yards allowed per game.  Michigan was able to produce a 48% success rate on called run plays versus Michigan State (ranked 7th in B1G rush yds/game).  Despite being somewhat successful, the offensive line had trouble adapting to how MSU  attacked their blocking scheme.  This produced far more negative yardage plays than Josh Gattis would like.  The Wolverines may also be dealing with some injuries up front, including their best lineman Jaylen Mayfield. 

Michigan Defense (13th) vs. Indiana Offense (33rd)
Regardless of which two Michigan cornerbacks get the start in Bloomington, I expect Don Brown to give them additional help from the safeties.  The success of MSU’s chuck-it-deep approach last week will definitely be imitated by the rest of the Big Ten teams versus Michigan.  The key questions I’ll be looking to answer: How well can Dax Hill and Brad Hawkins perform in coverage? Can the corners function in coverage without overtly grabbing the Indiana wide receivers?  Can the defensive line and blitzing linebackers get to QB Michael Penix before he can find the holes in more frequent zone coverage by the Wolverines?  

PREDICTION: Indiana has been pretty consistent through two weeks, and they are now 2-0 and ranked 13th nationally.  Michigan has already visited both ends of the performance and expectations spectrum.  No metric system can answer whether or not the 2020 Michigan team can bounce back from a shocking loss.  I expect a better-prepared and more enthusiastic showing this week, but the stat sheet might not reflect that.  This game could remind Michigan fans of last year’s Iowa game, a 10-3 home victory.  My advice is to focus on what really matters…win the game!
Michigan 28 Indiana 27 (PRESEASON Michigan 35 Indiana 20)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/2/2020), 1-1

SP+ Overall: 16th (↓7), 15.7
SP+ Offense: 29th (↓6), 33.6
SP+ Defense: 13th (↓3), 17.8
SP+ Special Teams: 77th (↓6), -0.1

AP Poll: 23rd (↓10), 151
Coaches’ Poll: 25th (↓11), 141
CFP Rank: N/A