Michigan 39 Indiana 14 – Week 13 Recap

WEEK 13 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 39-14, Michigan by 25 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 2.4 (+22.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 14 (+11)

FIVE FACTORS

Week 13 Five Factors box score @ Indiana

WEEK 13 RECAP @ Indiana

Jim Harbaugh and his Wolverines maintained focus through the week.  Many folks had this game circled on the schedule because it was: 1) on the road 2) against an Indiana team who gives Michigan trouble annually and 3) squeezed in between two rivalry games versus Michigan State and Ohio State.  Kudos to the coaching staff for keeping the players on task. The players really executed at a high level in varying weather conditions on the road against the Hoosiers.

Finally, Nico Collins had his day.  The junior wide receiver hauled in 6 passes for 165 yards and 3 touchdowns.  When the ball went in Collins’ direction and he didn’t catch it, there was likely a pass interference call on the defender.  He is a dominant weapon for Josh Gattis, and it seems like everyone has finally discovered that fact. Shea Patterson followed up his first 300+ yard passing game with a second one a week later.  Patterson had 366 yards and 5 touchdowns to Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Ronnie Bell. Michigan’s 7.8 yards per play is their most explosive mark of 2019, and the most since Week 2 of 2018 vs. WMU.   

The Indiana Hoosiers have continually given Michigan problems, and their 2018 game plan was the kindling for Ohio State’s bonfire in The Game last season.  The 2019 game in Bloomington started in the same mold with Indiana scoring touchdowns on 2 of their first 3 drives. Then, the defensive staff made their adjustments and forced 5 consecutive punts and forced a fumble over the next 6 drives.  During garbage time, the Hoosiers were able to eclipse 300 total yards, and also managed 4.8 yards per play on the day. There may be a few issues to work out in the defensive film room this week, but it feels like there are plenty of tricks left in Don Brown’s bag for the Buckeyes next week.

Ohio State clinched the Big Ten East with their 28-17 victory over Penn State in Columbus earlier today.  On Tuesday night, the Bucks may be consensus #1 in the country in the AP poll, the Coaches’ poll, and the College Football Playoff rankings.  Ryan Day will lead OSU to Indianapolis to compete for a Big Ten title regardless of what happens in Ann Arbor. Jim Harbaugh has led an impressive bounce back after an awful start to the Big Ten season.  In terms of Big Ten titles, this team’s slow building improvement is too little too late. However, in terms of 2019 season success and Harbaugh era legacy, the Wolverines have everything to play for. The 2019 version of The Game will come down to which team’s players will rise to the occasion and show they want it more.  Big time players make the critical plays in the biggest games. #BeatOhio


By the Numbers: Week 13 @ Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

A totally satisfying 44-10 pounding of the MSU Spartans highlighted the different trajectories of the two programs.

NEXT UP: @Indiana: 20th, 17.5

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 2.4, Michigan Win Probability 55%
In an interesting coincidence, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model produced the same prediction (28-25 Michigan) that I came up with in my Season Preview in August.  Another comparison for the Indiana game is Week 9 vs. Notre Dame.  The Irish also ranked 20th overall in SP+, with the 13th Offense, and the 35th Defense.

SP+ Picks are made weekly via Twitter by ESPN’s Bill Connelly

Michigan Offense (34th) vs. Indiana Defense (34th) 
Michigan comes off perhaps their most impressive offensive outing.  The Wolverines have improved 38 spots, up from 72nd after the loss to Wisconsin.  In three road games after Wisconsin, Michigan averages a 45% success rate and 5.9 yards per play.  In 2018, the Wolverines managed a 47% success rate and 6.7 yards per play. This contest with Indiana presents the final regular season road challenge for Josh Gattis and the offense.  Based on the matching SP+ rankings for Michigan’s offense and Indiana’s defense, Saturday’s matchup will likely come down to who can execute more cleanly. If the Wolverines can avoid major mistakes, especially turnovers, I expect them to move the ball and score consistently.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Indiana Offense (13th)
In last year’s 31-20 victory, the Michigan defense generated significant angst among the fan base.  Even worse, the Hoosiers’ success versus man coverage can be pointed to as a blueprint for the Buckeyes 62-point domination the following week.  We know these events triggered Don Brown’s 2019 evolution, making the test against Indiana particularly interesting. After dealing with the cost of significant change early in the season, the Wolverines’ defense is back into the top 5 nationally, including 5th in SP+.  The 2019 game shifts to Bloomington and opposing offensive units have had some success in road games since Wisconsin. The Wolverines allowed a 35% success rate and 4.3 yards per play at Illinois, at Penn State, and at Maryland. Also, because of the game waiting in Week 14, the prep for this game may be a delicate balance between executing vs. the Hoosiers without tipping your hand to the Buckeyes again.

PREDICTION: I made a big deal out of the 2018 trend in home versus road performance.  Michigan was +7.9 to the SP+ projections at home, and -7.1 on the road. That 15 point swing was particularly startling for me.  So far In 2019 the Wolverines are +7.2 at home, and a much more reasonable +0.8 on the road. I think Michigan will continue to show their growth on the road and will improve that +0.8 number.
Michigan 31 Indiana 17  (PRESEASON Michigan 28 Indiana 25)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/19/2019), 8-2

  • SP+ Overall: 10th (↑5), 22.4
    • SP+ Offense:34th (↑9), 33.8
    • SP+ Defense: 5th (↓1), 12.0
    • SP+ Special Teams 49th (↑21) 0.5
  • CFP Rank: 13th (↑2) 
  • AP Poll: 12th (↑2), 829
  • Coaches’ Poll: 12th (↑2), 851
Week 13 Resume

M FOOTBALL 2013: GALLON WATERS DOWN HOOSIER HOPES AS HE SETS RECORDS, AND THE WOLVERINES PREVAIL IN A 63 TO 47 SHOOTOUT

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Saturday afternoon, the University of Michigan Football Wolverines squared off with the University of Indiana’s Hoosiers after the Wolverine’s uncomfortable four overtime loss at Penn State stained chances of becoming an early contender in the Legends Division.

Showing a prolific offense, the battle Saturday evoked echoes of a Rich Rodriguez offense, and unfortunately of a Rich Rodriguez defense at times, as both offenses proved unstoppable, and dominated.  The the defenses were susceptible to long plays, and long drives.

Where did the Wolverines ability to stop scoring go for most of the game? It was certainly not on display. They let out several very damaging long plays, and had trouble stopping the Hoosiers. Forty seven points against them is all that needs be said. They yielded 410-yards passing, and 572-yards over all. Yielded to a good offense, yes, but that kind of yardage? Coach Hoke was disgruntled when I said good game to him afterwards, meaning a win. “Good game?” “Good game?” was the reply. Obviously, he does not care for shootouts, and games of continued little defensive effectiveness.

The M defense finally rose to the task, got a fourth quarter stop, and Thomas Gordon collected a pair of ever so timely late fourth quarter interceptions, which, coupled with the efforts of the offense, produced a winner.

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Gardner connected on 21 of 29 for a record setting 503 passing yards. He also set a school record of 584-yards of total offense. He ran for 81-yards, and was responsible for 5 TDs, 3 by ground and 2 by air. That was a historic performance caused both Gardner’s talent, and the nature of the Hoosier defense. It doesn’t matter who this was against. This was an outstanding accomplishment, one for the record books.  Eighty-three offensive plays piled up a whopping 751-yards.  Penalties were held to a minimum.

Jeremy Gallon set records himself, as he caught 14 passes for 369-yards. There are now new Big Ten, and Michigan records owned by Jeremy, and these numbers are the second highest totals among FBS schools. Wow! At the post-game press both Gallon and Gardner were present. Gardner pointed out, in jest, that Jeremy is only 5’9″ so harder to hit.

2013-UMIndiana-016

Gardner and Gallon had more than a little help from their friends. Fitz Toussaint ran well producing 131-yards and four TDs. He is only the sixth M running back to nail four rushing TDs in a game. A solid improvement from last week, when Fitz had 27 carries for a one-yard net average per attempt.

Devin Funchess had perhaps the athletic play of the evening. When he was running at speed along the eastern sideline, he leaped over a would-be tackler in an attempt to score, and nearly did, coming down on a shoulder, at about the two yard line. It was a simply spectacular athletic move.

The Wolverines regained their confidence after the Penn State debacle, and again put up a good fight. They improved offensive line play especially at the interior in general, although that area of the team is still in a competition, and seems likely to be a continuing question mark as the schedule stiffens in difficulty. They seemed to benefit from improved offensive coaching schemes to improve the tailback running, and certainly there was better blocking. Knowing that they had to score the offensive coaches adopted a more wide open game plan that obviously worked.

GAME PHOTOS

Erik Magnuson was at left guard. Although Magnuson is a natural tackle, he has speed and quick feet. Joey Burzynski showed some promise, at the opposite guard. A little more speed at those two positions is nothing but good. Last week’s starting right guard Kyle Kalis played.

With all M’s offensive line troubles this year, it is fair to say that the offense was 22nd in the nation in scoring prior to this Saturday’s game. That number should be enhanced now.  While Devin Gardner may sometimes perplex with TOs, he was leading in Big Ten offensive productivity before Saturday’s game, being responsible for 285.8 average yards over six games. Over seven games, he has now bettered that.

This is an Indiana team with a whale of an offense. Indiana hammered PSU handily this season. Prior to Saturday, they averaged 504.3-yards a game, and had 572 Saturday. They have many great receivers. They played two quarter backs, Nate Sudfeld and Tres Roberson. Tres has the wheels of a running back, and was the better of the two against Wolverines. Each threw a late game  interception. Roberson was 16 of 23 and 3 TDs, a long of 67-yards, and had 11 carries for 60-yards. Sudfeld was 8 of 19 for 122-yards, and one TD with a long of 59-yards. Both were sacked once. This shows that M’s pass defense needs improvement, but the defense rose to the occasion at the end of the game.

Scoring Summary:

First Quarter:

M won the toss and deferred. The Hoosiers opened the scoring with a quick 59-yard TD strike at the 10:28 mark, and the shootout was on. M-0, IU-7. Soon Devin Gardner ran one in from 13-yards out and it was 7-7. On fourth and two Fitz, then ran one in, and the quarter ended M-14, IU-7. Gallon had gathered in a 70-yard pass to the 11. M led in time of possession by about 4 minutes. It seemed that all was well.

Second Quarter: Fitz struck again from 7-yards out and it was M-21, IU-7. Fitz caught a 27-yard screen pass to the I-U 37, and Gallon contributed. It looked like a typical M pasting of Indiana was coming up. The Hoosiers put that to rest with a 33-yard TD pass. M-21, IU-14. With time running out in the quarter, Jeremy Gallon answered with a 21-yard TD catch completing a remarkable drive of 91-yards in 12 plays. M-28, IU-14. Toussaint had a nice 12-yard run, and Jeremy Jackson had a couple of first down receptions.

The Hoosiers hit a 50-yard FG to end the quarter and the half. M-28, IU-17. M owned the second quarter time of possession 13.7 to 01.43.

Third Quarter: Fitz got off to a bad start at the beginning of the quarter, dropping a Gardner pitch that was picked up by the Hoosiers and returned to the M 5. A quick TD run followed and the race was on.     M-28, IU-24.

Fitz got a couple of good runs and Jeremy gallon hauled in a 50-yard TD pass. M-35, IU-24. The Hoosiers put another TD on the board via a short pass. M-35, IU-31.

Was the M defense ever going to stop this onslaught? IU drew nearer with a 23-yard FG after a great Michigan third and three stand at the M six yard line caused an incompletion. M-35, IU-34. Too close for comfort.

Then Fitz ran in from the one yard line after Jeremy Gallon caught a 70-yard beauty. He was downed at the two. M-42, IU-34.

Of course Indiana answered with a 67-yard aerial TD gem. Suddenly it was M-42, IU-40. Gallon caught a 33-yarder before the quarter ended.

Fourth Quarter: Devin Gardner scored on a beautiful, scrambling, six yard run. Gardner was hit by a cheap shot in the end zone. A shoulder into the high chest, jolted him backwards after he had scored. M-49, I-40. IU again answered with a 15-yard TD run. M-49, IU-47.

The Wolverines were at the Indiana 2-yard line when Devin Gardner fumbled, wasting a long drive. Fortunately, the Hoosiers returned the favor of an error as Thomas Gordon got an interception and delivered it to the Indiana 5. Gardner scored again from 6-yards out. The OL missed communications and split in opposite directions, leaving Devin exposed to an unblocked rusher. He was hit hard from the side but got six. M-56, IU-47.

Thomas Gordon then delivered his second interception. M put together one last drive with a Devin Funchess catch of 38-yards and a 27-yard Fitz TD scamper. Final M-63, IU=47.

Forget the fact that the Wolverines have dominated the Hoosiers in the past. This was a red letter game for the Wolverines. One that they desperately needed to win.

While the defense struggled with the hurry up offense of Indiana, they are unlikely to see another that effective. They should change the Hoosiers moniker to Minutemen. They repeatedly scored in a minute or a little more. Fortunately, it is unlikely we will see that kind of offensive hurry up efficiency again this year.

That efficiency, and the inefficiency of our defense on this occasion, forced the Wolverines into scoring points with abandon. They even scored on a fourth and two, and put the passing game into high gear, while managing a decent running game.

Even though the records set were not against one of the Big Ten’s better defenses, they are still remarkably worthwhile, even if contributing little to the main goals of the team.

There is another bye week to heal and to consider the upcoming trip to the stomping grounds of the Green Meanies. While this win did not cure all the perceived flaws and vulnerabilities of this year’s version of the Wolverines on offense, defense, and special teams, it certainly was a step in the right direction. It should provide the Spartans some food for thought.

Go Blue!

Michigan Wolverines vs. Indiana Hoosiers Football Game Day

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Michigan vs. Indiana

Date: Saturday, Oct. 19    |   Time: 3:30 p.m.
Location: Ann Arbor, Mich.   |   Venue: Michigan Stadium

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All-Time Series:
U-M leads, 52-9Last Meeting:
Michigan 42, Indiana 35
(Oct. 2, 2010 – Bloomington, Ind.)
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(3-3, 1-1 Big Ten)
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Todd Male- Michigan Indiana Game Prediction
Phil Callihan- Michigan Wolverines vs. Indiana Hoosiers: Complete Game Preview
Podcast- Penn State 43 Michigan 40 4OT Game Commentary Podcast
Phil Callihan- Michigan Desperately Seeking Running Attack: Return of the Spread?
Phil Callihan- Michigan’s Offense Struggling in Hoke’s Third Season

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Michigan Wolverines vs. Indiana Hoosiers: Complete Game Preview

The Michigan Wolverines (5-1, 1-1 Big Ten Conference) host the Indiana Hoosiers (3-3, 1-1 Big Ten Conference) after losing 43-40 to Penn State in four overtimes.

Michigan needs a victory to keep pace in the Big Ten Legends Division; another conference loss would be a serious blow to their hopes of competing for a Big Ten title.

Indiana is coming off a 42-28 road loss to Michigan State.

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