Tag: Analysis

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By the Numbers: Week 6 vs. Iowa

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines trounced Rutgers and kicked off the search to replace Chris Ash as head coach in Piscataway.

NEXT UP: vs. Iowa: 20th, 17.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 4.0, Michigan Win Probability 59%
Michigan finds themselves seven spots in front of the Hawkeyes in overall SP+ rankings.  However the margin has come down from 11.6 in the preseason to 4.0 in week six.

Michigan Offense (48th) vs. Iowa Defense (22nd)
The key question we need to see answered is whether or not Michigan will be able to run the ball successfully against a solid defense. Iowa has yet to give up 100 yards on the ground through their first four games. The only Power 5 opponent, Iowa State, did manage 4.8 yards per rush. That gives me reason for optimism that the Wolverines offensive line will have a fine day. I’ll be keeping an eye on the Shea Patterson’s role in the run game. It would be a major addition to the #SpeedInSpace concept to make the Hawkeye defense account for the QB as a run threat. Michigan may still be wary of Shea taking additional hits after he finally looked healthy and comfortable last week versus Rutgers. If he is not utilizing the QB rushing the ball on the read option, then Josh Gattis will likely be more focused on keeping Patterson clean in the pocket, or rolling out to ensure he can see his reads clearly downfield.

Michigan Defense (6th) vs. Iowa Offense (30th)
The fear for most Michigan fans is that Iowa will download the Wisconsin offensive road map to gash the Wolverines’ defense. I expect to see a much better performance against the Hawkeyes for a couple reasons. First, the depth at defensive tackle will be greatly improved with Michael Dwumfour available to start. Giving Don Brown the personnel option to put Dwumfour next to Carlo Kemp inside, and allow Kwity Paye and Aiden Hutchinson to stay on the ends is a major improvement over what we saw in Madison. Second, I was encouraged by the week-over-week improvement of Cam McGrone. The defensive game plan against the Badgers expected senior Josh Ross in the middle. The plan with McGrone in the middle against Rutgers looked to better utilize his speed, without requiring him to read and think a great deal on the snap of the ball. I’ll be looking at how often McGrone is sent as a blitzer, requiring upperclassmen Jordan Glasgow Kaleke Hudson, and Josh Uche to read and react more often than McGrone.

PREDICTION: The Hawkeyes’ offense and Michigan’s defense have both moved up the SP+ rankings since preseason. This creates a fascinating strength vs. strength match up. Who can limit the big mistakes when Michigan’s offense takes the field vs. Iowa’s defense? I think both teams will be relatively conservative to eliminate game-changing mistakes. If the Offense vs. Defense phases of the game turn into a wash, then the difference will be special teams where Michigan is ranked 4th in SP+ and Iowa 13th. I expect at least one key big play to come from the return game to go along with a significant field position advantage for the Wolverines.
Michigan 30 Iowa 23 (same as PRESEASON)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/2/2019)

  • SP+ Overall: 13th (↑13), 18.5
    • SP+ Offense: 48th (↑24), 31.8
    • SP+ Defense: 6th (↑6), 13.8
  • AP Poll: 19th (↑1), 350
  • Coaches’ Poll: 18th (↑2), 417
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Michigan 52 Rutgers 0 – Week 5 Recap

WEEK 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-0, Michigan by 52 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 27.3 (+24.7)
CD Projection: Michigan by 20 (+32)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 5 RECAP vs. Rutgers

Michigan had everything to prove to themselves in this game, and re-established trust in themselves and their systems.  This was a thorough and complete domination from the Wolverines. Michigan scored twice in every quarter, and pitched the first shutout since their 78-0 drubbing of Rutgers in Piscataway in 2016.  Shea Patterson looked more comfortable behind his offensive line, and the passing game seemed to find some rhythm. Ronnie Bell again led the team in targets with eight, but Donovan People-Jones looked more healthy and was targeted five times, catching four of them.

On defense, the improved run fits were immediately noticeable.  Rutgers was only able to rush for 1.6 yards per carry. The Scarlet Knights only managed 152 yards of total offense for the game.  Rutgers also attempted to utilize the crossing route attack that was successful for Indiana and Ohio State at the end of the 2018 season.  While Melton and Blackshear were able to get loose a handful of times, the longest plays allowed were kept under 20 yards by the defense. Don Brown continues to add fronts, alignments, personnel, and coverages to maximize the number of options available later on in the schedule.

The Michigan fan base was also embarrassed by a lack of intensity from the Wolverines last week in Madison.  That issue did not travel back to Ann Arbor. The players and coaching staff brought a very high energy level from the opening kick.  Part of that may have been due to Josh Gattis coming down from the coaches’ box onto the sideline. Numerous times on Saturday, both Gattis and Jim Harbaugh were visibly fired up on the Michigan sideline.  This continues a pattern of playing much more sharply and with more passion in home games. Two weeks from now Michigan travels again, this time to Illinois. In that game, we’ll have to see if the coaching staff has figured out how to break the Home / Away cycle.  Next up is a challenging crossover against another Big Ten West contender, the Iowa Hawkeyes.

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By the Numbers: Week 5 vs. Rutgers

Back to work! See you Saturday.

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines traveled to Madison.  Not good.  Actually, to quote Jim Harbaugh, “unacceptable”. 

NEXT UP: vs. Rutgers: 105th, -10.9

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 27.3, Michigan Win Probability 94%
If seeing Michigan at 26th overall in SP+ surprises you like it did me, you’ll be floored to find out that the offense moved UP two spots after the Wisconsin loss.

Michigan Offense (72nd) vs. Rutgers Defense (78th)
We see and hear many pundits calling for more deep shots and 50-50 balls to the outside wide receivers. Consider these words of caution: making downfield vertical attacks the core offensive philosophy puts even more responsibility on the shaky pass protection. Such a path could turn out disastrous. Personally, I advocate for a philosophy that draws the offense up toward the line of scrimmage, then attempts to hit three or four big plays over the top, perhaps on double moves. The core package should remain inside zone, split zone, the Arc Read on the ground. Through the air, we could probably start with a mesh concept that Indiana and Ohio State killed our defense with, in addition to the RPOs off of the inside and split zone runs. These are just my two cents. I would be happy with any game plan that ends up greater than 45% success rate.

Michigan Defense (12th) vs. Rutgers Offense (112th)
Don Brown is not the problem.  He remains one of the top five defensive coordinators nationally, in my opinion.  However, his aggressive philosophy and man-to-man scheme provide clear opportunities for opposing offensive coordinators to exploit his tendencies.  One repeatedly successful tactic is employing pre-snap shifts and motions that force Michigan’s outside run support players to be moving inward and away from the line of scrimmage at the snap.  The Wolverines’ typically identify these scripted attacks in real time during the game and Don Brown’s adjustments normally shut out the lights. Against Wisconsin, some individual players were beaten, and others were caught out of position trying to do too much.  This week against Rutgers, Michigan won’t be at the same disadvantage up front. I expect to see some frustrating run game success for Rutgers early, but very little after the first quarter.

PREDICTION: In the preseason, I expected Michigan to be returning to the Big House with something to prove.  Somehow I underestimated. The Wolverines have EVERYTHING to prove. Both the offensive and defensive coaches need to establish clear visions of how they plan to attack successfully.  More importantly, the players need to start experiencing some sustained success to rebuild trust and confidence in their respective systems and coaching staffs. The lingering injuries and what I expect will be simplified offensive and defensive game plans still make me anxious.  However, I think we’ll see a much more acceptable performance from the Wolverines this week.
Michigan 34 Rutgers 14 (PRESEASON Michigan 55 Rutgers 10)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/25/2019)

  • SP+ Overall: 26th (↓10), 13.9
    • SP+ Offense: 72nd (↑2), 28.3
    • SP+ Defense: 12th (↓11), 14.8
  • AP Poll: 20th (↓9), 287
  • Coaches’ Poll: 20th (↓10), 389
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Wisconsin 35 Michigan 14 – Week 4 Recap

WEEK 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 14-35, Wisconsin by 21 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Wisconsin by 9.0 (+12)
CD Projection: Wisconsin by 4 (+17)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 4 RECAP @ Wisconsin

Wisconsin did not spring any traps.  We did not see any artfully scripted series coming out of the Badgers’ bye week.  They simply lined up and said, “Here we come, try and stop us.” Michigan could not find any answers.  Wisconsin’s first drive went 12 plays, and took 6:25 off the clock. The drive included the riverboat gambler awakening of Paul Chryst, who finally realized he should use the best running attack in the country on all four downs.  On 4th & 1, from his own 34 yard line, Chryst rolled the dice on the first drive of the game! Jonathon Taylor answered the bell with a 3-yard run. Wisconsin converted two subsequent 3rd down plays, including the 1-yard touchdown plunge by Taylor.  The Badgers made an emphatic statement, right from the opening bell.

After the ensuing touchback, the Wolverines looked to Josh Gattis and Shea Patterson for their opening statement.  On 1st & 10, Patterson connected with Ronnie Bell, who raced 68 yards down inside the Wisconsin 10 yard line. After Patterson missed Nico Collins on 1st & Goal, Michigan looked confused trying to get their heavy personnel onto the field, including recently converted defensive tackle, Ben Mason.  Jim Harbaugh called timeout to ensure everyone was on the same page. After the time out, Mason fumbled his first carry since 2018. Through three games, the Wolverines have fumbled their first drive away 100% of the time.

Wisconsin began to march again, before Chryst inexplicably forgot about Jonathon Taylor again.  After moving the sticks a couple times, the Badgers punted back to Michigan from midfield. With under four minutes left in the first quarter, Michigan was given another chance to answer Wisconsin’s opening statement.  A quick completion to Tarik Black set up 2nd & 5. Patterson attacked the deep middle of the field by throwing a laser to Ronnie Bell. Bell made a beautiful diving catch, and again Michigan looked poised to stand toe-to-toe with Wisconsin. 

Alas, the play was reviewed, and the catch was ruled incomplete. The FOX network’s rules analyst, former referee Mike Pereira, disagreed with the decision. He stated that it was so clearly a catch that if the call had been incomplete, he would have overturned that to rule it a catch.  Regardless, Michigan was challenged to convert on 3rd & 5. When Patterson couldn’t connect with Sean McKeon, the Wolverines punted to the Badgers’ 28 yard line. On the very next play play, Taylor took an inside hand off 72 yards untouched to the end zone to make it 14-0. 

Now with 2:32 left in the first quarter, Michigan would have one more chance to answer the challenge from the Badgers.  On 3rd & 5, Patterson looked to Donovan Peoples-Jones, who was making his first appearance of 2019. Peoples-Jones drew a pass interference penalty to give Michigan an automatic first down, but lost his composure after the call.  After marking off the unsportsmanlike penalty yardage, the Wolverines had gained six yards on the spot foul, and lost fifteen yards on the dead ball foul. Four plays later Michigan punted again. After the Badgers bulldozed their way to a third touchdown (15 plays, 80 yards, 8:29, two 4th down conversions), the Wolverines would not get another real opportunity to right the ship.

Michigan Football repeatedly finds themselves in this early hole on the road against competitive teams.  We’ve discussed both verbally and in print how the metrics highlight clear issues on the road. Today, Michigan again failed to rise above some early adversity at Camp Randall, and Wisconsin made them pay.  Michigan’s program is not on life support, despite how dead we may feel inside when these shoddy performances are repeated annually.

There will undoubtedly be a renewed sense of urgency inside Schembechler Hall this week.  The talented players and proven coaches in Ann Arbor can absolutely solve these issues. They must find a way to rise to the largest challenges when the pressure is highest. To enable his players and his coaches, Jim Harbaugh must first reform his culture of both physical and mental toughness before the other necessary corrections truly matter at all.  All hope is not lost, but Michigan must start by answering the coming challenges with a fighter’s mentality. The challenges will start in a matter of hours with some pretty brutal film sessions. 

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By the Numbers: Week 4 @ Wisconsin

Hoping for improved ball security

RECENT SP+ HISTORY vs. Wisconsin

During the bye week, I was able to take a peek back to the three previous meetings between Michigan and Wisconsin. Here is a quick review of those games through an SP+ lens. When game statistics feed into Bill Connelly’s SP+ system, a Postgame Win Expectancy gets created. The system calculates the percentage of repeated games with those statistics that would result in a Michigan win. Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan has a 2-1 record versus the Badgers.

2018: #17 Wisconsin @ #5 Michigan; W 38-13; Postgame Win Exp. 86%
Michigan started to see the offensive line gel as a unit, and the Arc Read QB read option package made its debut. The defense was without Rashan Gary, but Kwity Paye and Josh Uche filled in admirably. Inexplicably, Wisconsin continually took Jonathon Taylor off the field on 3rd down.

2017 (SBNation): #27 Michigan @ #6 Wisconsin; L 10-24; Postgame Win Exp. 26%
Both defensive units established dominance in 2017, but the Wisconsin offense was able to make more big plays in key spots. Wisconsin edged Michigan slightly in success rate 31% to 27%, but had a much more prominent edge in explosiveness. The Badgers dominated the Yards/Play metric 5.27 to 3.68. On standard downs, the Badgers recorded an IsoPPP of 1.08 compared to 0.75 for the Wolverines.

2016 (SBNation): #11 Wisconsin @ #3 Michigan; W 14-7; Postgame Win Exp. 97%
In 2016, Michigan utilized an Army-style game plan to grind out a one-score victory. The Wolverines ran 80 offensive plays, compared to just 53 for the Badgers, and were also boosted by a +2 turnover margin. While being slightly less explosive, especially in the ground game, Michigan doubled the success rate of Wisconsin 42% to 21%. The game was kept close largely because of the Wolverines’ inability to finish drives. Michigan averaged 2.33 points in six trips inside Wisconsin’s 40 yard line. The Badgers only created three scoring opportunities in the game.

NEXT UP: @ Wisconsin: 7th, 24.9

PREGAME SP+: Wisconsin by 9.0, Michigan Win Probability 30%
Michigan’s defense has moved up to 1st in SP+ unit rankings, but the offense is down to 74th. That is below average for FBS, and way below Power 5 average.

Michigan Offense (74th) vs. Wisconsin Defense (10th) 
This match up will likely determine Saturday’s winner. The Wolverines absolutely MUST eliminate turnovers, and they would be well served to continually move the chains and give the defense a break. I expect to see an outing that looks more like Week 1 vs. MTSU (still not flawless) as opposed to what we saw in Week 2 vs. Army. The expected return of Donovan Peoples-Jones should lead to increased space for Shea Patterson to attack through the air. That in turn could stretch the Wisconsin linebackers out of the zone running lanes for Zach Charbonnet and Christian Turner.

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Wisconsin Offense (16th)
Don Brown will come up with a creative game plan to contain the Badgers’ rushing attack. The key for the game will be whether Wisconsin can exploit Michigan’s lack of depth on the interior defensive line. The Wolverines will need to swarm to the ball on every tackle to limit +2, +3, and +4 yard running play add-ons by Jonathon Taylor. It would also be crucial for an opportunistic Michigan defense to create an early turnover and help take the crowd out of the game.

PREDICTION: Jim Harbaugh’s appreciation of this team’s work ethic, and their ability to string together good practices encourages me a bit. His short press conference answer about “having a good team” as the key to winning on the road seemed abrupt to some. However, he has previously discussed that being a “good team” is being able to find a way to be successful in the face of adversity. In the Army post game, he also alluded to good teams having to win a “football fight” like the Wolverines did against the Black Knights. These intangibles should be a program focus for improving road game performance in 2019. With all of that said, I haven’t seen enough offensive cohesion or explosiveness to outweigh my preseason concerns about Michigan winning away from Ann Arbor.
Wisconsin 27 Michigan 23 (PRESEASON Wisconsin 26 Michigan 24)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/17/2019)

  • SP+ Overall: 16th (↓1), 18.4
    • SP+ Offense: 74th (↓20), 27.2
    • SP+ Defense: 1st (↑14), 9.0
  • AP Poll: 11th (↓1), 917
  • Coaches’ Poll: 10th (same), 928
  • CFP Rank: N/A