Tag: Analysis

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Michigan 10 Iowa 3 – Week 6 Recap

WEEK 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 10-3, Michigan by 7 over Iowa
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 4.0 (+3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 7 (same)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 6 RECAP vs. Iowa

On a classic “Big Ten weather” October day (59º and gray), Michigan and Iowa played a throwback Big Ten style smashmouth game.  The Wolverines were able to hold on and beat the Hawkeyes 10-3 thanks in large part to a swarming defense. Michigan’s offense still appears disjointed most of the time as Shea Patterson struggles to spread the ball around to multiple weapons.  

The defensive staff deserves a ton of credit.  Don Brown’s unit continues to tinker with multiple fronts and coverages in an attempt to confuse the offense.  For today, it was a rousing success. Michigan was able to record 13 tackles for loss and 8 sacks against a Hawkeye squad that had not given up many negative plays through four games.  Within both zone and man coverage schemes, Cam McGrone and Daxton Hill were called upon to handle more issues with crossing routes. Iowa did find minimal success in the short middle passing game, so the tinkering will continue.  Also of concern was an apparent hamstring injury to Kwity Paye. When he left in the third quarter, he had already recorded 2.5 sacks.  

On the other side of the ball, the offensive staff is still searching for rhythm and consistency.  Michigan only managed 267 total yards and two first-half scores. Shea Patterson went 14-26 for 147 yards while rushing 7 times for 25 yards.  The only Michigan touchdown came from Zach Charbonnet in the first quarter. Charbonnet was the leading rusher on the day with 42 yards. Michigan accumulated 120 yards total rushing.  Going forward, Josh Gattis still needs to identify the core plays that he can script to get the passing game into rhythm. It was encouraging to see the QB read option and arc play return to the arsenal.  

This game was important to show that this team can play a tough physical game and hold up.  After getting decimated by Wisconsin, the Wolverines welcomed senior Mike Dwumfour back to the defensive line for today.  Also, it appears that Cam McGrone may be a budding star in the middle of the defense. When the dust settled, Michigan won because they were able to avoid making big mistakes.  Iowa was saddled with penalties and turnovers, especially in the second half.

Finally, it will be absolutely critical to correct the kicking game. Both kickers missed field goal attempts.  We saw more poor punts than good ones from Will Hart. Also, this team and program still need to prove they can come up with a good performance on the road. Jim Harbaugh has a big challenge in front of him to get all three phases working smoothly away from the Big House for the next two weeks.  Onward!

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By the Numbers: Week 6 vs. Iowa

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines trounced Rutgers and kicked off the search to replace Chris Ash as head coach in Piscataway.

NEXT UP: vs. Iowa: 20th, 17.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 4.0, Michigan Win Probability 59%
Michigan finds themselves seven spots in front of the Hawkeyes in overall SP+ rankings.  However the margin has come down from 11.6 in the preseason to 4.0 in week six.

Michigan Offense (48th) vs. Iowa Defense (22nd)
The key question we need to see answered is whether or not Michigan will be able to run the ball successfully against a solid defense. Iowa has yet to give up 100 yards on the ground through their first four games. The only Power 5 opponent, Iowa State, did manage 4.8 yards per rush. That gives me reason for optimism that the Wolverines offensive line will have a fine day. I’ll be keeping an eye on the Shea Patterson’s role in the run game. It would be a major addition to the #SpeedInSpace concept to make the Hawkeye defense account for the QB as a run threat. Michigan may still be wary of Shea taking additional hits after he finally looked healthy and comfortable last week versus Rutgers. If he is not utilizing the QB rushing the ball on the read option, then Josh Gattis will likely be more focused on keeping Patterson clean in the pocket, or rolling out to ensure he can see his reads clearly downfield.

Michigan Defense (6th) vs. Iowa Offense (30th)
The fear for most Michigan fans is that Iowa will download the Wisconsin offensive road map to gash the Wolverines’ defense. I expect to see a much better performance against the Hawkeyes for a couple reasons. First, the depth at defensive tackle will be greatly improved with Michael Dwumfour available to start. Giving Don Brown the personnel option to put Dwumfour next to Carlo Kemp inside, and allow Kwity Paye and Aiden Hutchinson to stay on the ends is a major improvement over what we saw in Madison. Second, I was encouraged by the week-over-week improvement of Cam McGrone. The defensive game plan against the Badgers expected senior Josh Ross in the middle. The plan with McGrone in the middle against Rutgers looked to better utilize his speed, without requiring him to read and think a great deal on the snap of the ball. I’ll be looking at how often McGrone is sent as a blitzer, requiring upperclassmen Jordan Glasgow Kaleke Hudson, and Josh Uche to read and react more often than McGrone.

PREDICTION: The Hawkeyes’ offense and Michigan’s defense have both moved up the SP+ rankings since preseason. This creates a fascinating strength vs. strength match up. Who can limit the big mistakes when Michigan’s offense takes the field vs. Iowa’s defense? I think both teams will be relatively conservative to eliminate game-changing mistakes. If the Offense vs. Defense phases of the game turn into a wash, then the difference will be special teams where Michigan is ranked 4th in SP+ and Iowa 13th. I expect at least one key big play to come from the return game to go along with a significant field position advantage for the Wolverines.
Michigan 30 Iowa 23 (same as PRESEASON)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/2/2019)

  • SP+ Overall: 13th (↑13), 18.5
    • SP+ Offense: 48th (↑24), 31.8
    • SP+ Defense: 6th (↑6), 13.8
  • AP Poll: 19th (↑1), 350
  • Coaches’ Poll: 18th (↑2), 417
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Michigan 52 Rutgers 0 – Week 5 Recap

WEEK 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-0, Michigan by 52 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 27.3 (+24.7)
CD Projection: Michigan by 20 (+32)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 5 RECAP vs. Rutgers

Michigan had everything to prove to themselves in this game, and re-established trust in themselves and their systems.  This was a thorough and complete domination from the Wolverines. Michigan scored twice in every quarter, and pitched the first shutout since their 78-0 drubbing of Rutgers in Piscataway in 2016.  Shea Patterson looked more comfortable behind his offensive line, and the passing game seemed to find some rhythm. Ronnie Bell again led the team in targets with eight, but Donovan People-Jones looked more healthy and was targeted five times, catching four of them.

On defense, the improved run fits were immediately noticeable.  Rutgers was only able to rush for 1.6 yards per carry. The Scarlet Knights only managed 152 yards of total offense for the game.  Rutgers also attempted to utilize the crossing route attack that was successful for Indiana and Ohio State at the end of the 2018 season.  While Melton and Blackshear were able to get loose a handful of times, the longest plays allowed were kept under 20 yards by the defense. Don Brown continues to add fronts, alignments, personnel, and coverages to maximize the number of options available later on in the schedule.

The Michigan fan base was also embarrassed by a lack of intensity from the Wolverines last week in Madison.  That issue did not travel back to Ann Arbor. The players and coaching staff brought a very high energy level from the opening kick.  Part of that may have been due to Josh Gattis coming down from the coaches’ box onto the sideline. Numerous times on Saturday, both Gattis and Jim Harbaugh were visibly fired up on the Michigan sideline.  This continues a pattern of playing much more sharply and with more passion in home games. Two weeks from now Michigan travels again, this time to Illinois. In that game, we’ll have to see if the coaching staff has figured out how to break the Home / Away cycle.  Next up is a challenging crossover against another Big Ten West contender, the Iowa Hawkeyes.

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By the Numbers: Week 5 vs. Rutgers

Back to work! See you Saturday.

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines traveled to Madison.  Not good.  Actually, to quote Jim Harbaugh, “unacceptable”. 

NEXT UP: vs. Rutgers: 105th, -10.9

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 27.3, Michigan Win Probability 94%
If seeing Michigan at 26th overall in SP+ surprises you like it did me, you’ll be floored to find out that the offense moved UP two spots after the Wisconsin loss.

Michigan Offense (72nd) vs. Rutgers Defense (78th)
We see and hear many pundits calling for more deep shots and 50-50 balls to the outside wide receivers. Consider these words of caution: making downfield vertical attacks the core offensive philosophy puts even more responsibility on the shaky pass protection. Such a path could turn out disastrous. Personally, I advocate for a philosophy that draws the offense up toward the line of scrimmage, then attempts to hit three or four big plays over the top, perhaps on double moves. The core package should remain inside zone, split zone, the Arc Read on the ground. Through the air, we could probably start with a mesh concept that Indiana and Ohio State killed our defense with, in addition to the RPOs off of the inside and split zone runs. These are just my two cents. I would be happy with any game plan that ends up greater than 45% success rate.

Michigan Defense (12th) vs. Rutgers Offense (112th)
Don Brown is not the problem.  He remains one of the top five defensive coordinators nationally, in my opinion.  However, his aggressive philosophy and man-to-man scheme provide clear opportunities for opposing offensive coordinators to exploit his tendencies.  One repeatedly successful tactic is employing pre-snap shifts and motions that force Michigan’s outside run support players to be moving inward and away from the line of scrimmage at the snap.  The Wolverines’ typically identify these scripted attacks in real time during the game and Don Brown’s adjustments normally shut out the lights. Against Wisconsin, some individual players were beaten, and others were caught out of position trying to do too much.  This week against Rutgers, Michigan won’t be at the same disadvantage up front. I expect to see some frustrating run game success for Rutgers early, but very little after the first quarter.

PREDICTION: In the preseason, I expected Michigan to be returning to the Big House with something to prove.  Somehow I underestimated. The Wolverines have EVERYTHING to prove. Both the offensive and defensive coaches need to establish clear visions of how they plan to attack successfully.  More importantly, the players need to start experiencing some sustained success to rebuild trust and confidence in their respective systems and coaching staffs. The lingering injuries and what I expect will be simplified offensive and defensive game plans still make me anxious.  However, I think we’ll see a much more acceptable performance from the Wolverines this week.
Michigan 34 Rutgers 14 (PRESEASON Michigan 55 Rutgers 10)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/25/2019)

  • SP+ Overall: 26th (↓10), 13.9
    • SP+ Offense: 72nd (↑2), 28.3
    • SP+ Defense: 12th (↓11), 14.8
  • AP Poll: 20th (↓9), 287
  • Coaches’ Poll: 20th (↓10), 389
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Wisconsin 35 Michigan 14 – Week 4 Recap

WEEK 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 14-35, Wisconsin by 21 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Wisconsin by 9.0 (+12)
CD Projection: Wisconsin by 4 (+17)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 4 RECAP @ Wisconsin

Wisconsin did not spring any traps.  We did not see any artfully scripted series coming out of the Badgers’ bye week.  They simply lined up and said, “Here we come, try and stop us.” Michigan could not find any answers.  Wisconsin’s first drive went 12 plays, and took 6:25 off the clock. The drive included the riverboat gambler awakening of Paul Chryst, who finally realized he should use the best running attack in the country on all four downs.  On 4th & 1, from his own 34 yard line, Chryst rolled the dice on the first drive of the game! Jonathon Taylor answered the bell with a 3-yard run. Wisconsin converted two subsequent 3rd down plays, including the 1-yard touchdown plunge by Taylor.  The Badgers made an emphatic statement, right from the opening bell.

After the ensuing touchback, the Wolverines looked to Josh Gattis and Shea Patterson for their opening statement.  On 1st & 10, Patterson connected with Ronnie Bell, who raced 68 yards down inside the Wisconsin 10 yard line. After Patterson missed Nico Collins on 1st & Goal, Michigan looked confused trying to get their heavy personnel onto the field, including recently converted defensive tackle, Ben Mason.  Jim Harbaugh called timeout to ensure everyone was on the same page. After the time out, Mason fumbled his first carry since 2018. Through three games, the Wolverines have fumbled their first drive away 100% of the time.

Wisconsin began to march again, before Chryst inexplicably forgot about Jonathon Taylor again.  After moving the sticks a couple times, the Badgers punted back to Michigan from midfield. With under four minutes left in the first quarter, Michigan was given another chance to answer Wisconsin’s opening statement.  A quick completion to Tarik Black set up 2nd & 5. Patterson attacked the deep middle of the field by throwing a laser to Ronnie Bell. Bell made a beautiful diving catch, and again Michigan looked poised to stand toe-to-toe with Wisconsin. 

Alas, the play was reviewed, and the catch was ruled incomplete. The FOX network’s rules analyst, former referee Mike Pereira, disagreed with the decision. He stated that it was so clearly a catch that if the call had been incomplete, he would have overturned that to rule it a catch.  Regardless, Michigan was challenged to convert on 3rd & 5. When Patterson couldn’t connect with Sean McKeon, the Wolverines punted to the Badgers’ 28 yard line. On the very next play play, Taylor took an inside hand off 72 yards untouched to the end zone to make it 14-0. 

Now with 2:32 left in the first quarter, Michigan would have one more chance to answer the challenge from the Badgers.  On 3rd & 5, Patterson looked to Donovan Peoples-Jones, who was making his first appearance of 2019. Peoples-Jones drew a pass interference penalty to give Michigan an automatic first down, but lost his composure after the call.  After marking off the unsportsmanlike penalty yardage, the Wolverines had gained six yards on the spot foul, and lost fifteen yards on the dead ball foul. Four plays later Michigan punted again. After the Badgers bulldozed their way to a third touchdown (15 plays, 80 yards, 8:29, two 4th down conversions), the Wolverines would not get another real opportunity to right the ship.

Michigan Football repeatedly finds themselves in this early hole on the road against competitive teams.  We’ve discussed both verbally and in print how the metrics highlight clear issues on the road. Today, Michigan again failed to rise above some early adversity at Camp Randall, and Wisconsin made them pay.  Michigan’s program is not on life support, despite how dead we may feel inside when these shoddy performances are repeated annually.

There will undoubtedly be a renewed sense of urgency inside Schembechler Hall this week.  The talented players and proven coaches in Ann Arbor can absolutely solve these issues. They must find a way to rise to the largest challenges when the pressure is highest. To enable his players and his coaches, Jim Harbaugh must first reform his culture of both physical and mental toughness before the other necessary corrections truly matter at all.  All hope is not lost, but Michigan must start by answering the coming challenges with a fighter’s mentality. The challenges will start in a matter of hours with some pretty brutal film sessions.