Final Score: 21-28, Michigan loses by 7 to Penn State SP+ Projection: Penn State by 8.2 (+1.2) CD Projection: Michigan by 1 (-8)
FIVE FACTORS
WEEK 8 RECAP @ Penn State
I’m going to keep it brief. Michigan is good enough to win these games on the road. Michigan played well enough to win this particular game in a white out vs. Penn State. However, Michigan still has not learned how to step up in big moments. I’m reminded of another gut wrenching moment that spurred Jim Harbaugh to declare “…this will put steel into our spine.” That is what is missing. Not effort, these kids played their guts out, and left everything in Happy Valley. But they need big time players to make big time plays in the biggest moments. With two Big Ten losses, it is time to re-calibrate the season goals. The Wolverines no longer control their own destiny in terms of a conference title. If the Michigan players and coaching staff can bounce back from this heart break, a rivalry win at night in the Big House might help make everyone feel a little better. That would show a spine truly made of steel.
The Wolverines put together a dominant performance @ Illinois, but turnovers and lack of energy on both sides of the ball in the third quarter still made fans very anxious.
NEXT UP: @ Penn State: 6th, 24.4
PREGAME SP+: Penn State by 8.2, Michigan Win Probability 32% The Michigan-PSU series has swung wildly from year to year with the home team winning by an average of 34 points in the last three seasons. Michigan won 28-16 @ PSU in Jim Harbaugh’s first season at Michigan.
Michigan Offense (53rd) vs. Penn State Defense (10th) Various sports media outlets generate wide discussion around the “Most Tortured Fan Base” pretty regularly. Fan negativity really garners attention and gets consumers talking. The volume and intensity of fans’ negativity really ramp up when results do not match the fans’ established expectations. This phenomenon made it very hard to evaluate the 2018 defense after the OSU mess. It makes it very hard for fans to evaluate the 2019 Wolverines’ offense. We know there are flaws, but we expected much more fire power at this point in the season. For me, I still maintain optimism that we will see late-season growth from the offensive unit. I don’t expect to see #SpeedInSpace throw a coming out party at night in a Happy Valley white out. However, I do believe they are capable of making critical explosive plays against a very good Nittany Lion defense. The key will be maximizing their scoring opportunities because they likely will be few and far between.
Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. Penn State Offense (10th) The Wolverines’ defense dismantled Penn State 49-10 in 2016. The Nittany Lions adjusted and utilized new offensive wrinkles for Saquon Barkley in 2017 as they exploded for 42 points. Last year Don Brown stayed awake late into the night to design his counter attack, and nearly shut out Penn State. For this season, the first central question will be: who has processed the available film and data into the better game plan? The second question will be: which group of players will execute better and make plays in big moments? Michigan will crank up the blitz machine to ensure redshirt junior QB Sean Clifford is under pressure on every pass. PSU offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne knows this. He will try to utilize plays that get slot WR KJ Hammler into the space voided by blitzers. Don Brown knows this, and he will change up coverages to anticipate where Clifford’s pressure release valve will be. In my mind, the victor of this chess match will determine the winner of the game.
PREDICTION: Uncharacteristically poor special teams performance also contributes to the Wolverines’ overall performance. In the SP+ rankings Michigan’s special teams unit has plummeted to #62, down 58 spots since the Rutgers game. Even the play of the game @ Illinois, a blocked punt by Jordan Glasgow, was counteracted by a 70 yard Illini punt to Michigan 1 yard line. Statistics and history suggest the special teams performance will improve and push Michigan back up into the 30’s in SP+ special teams ranking. This week would be an absolutely perfect time for the third phase to show up big and put points onto the board. Michigan 21 Penn State 20 (PRESEASON Michigan 31 Penn State 17)
Final Score: 42-25, Michigan by 17 over Illinois SP+ Projection: Michigan by 15.4 (+1.6) CD Projection: Michigan by 21 (-4)
FIVE FACTORS
WEEK 7 RECAP @ Illinois
I answered the question I heard most this week consistently. When I heard, “What do you want to see against Illinois?” I said a clean, fast start on the road. Be careful what you wish for. We definitely saw a fast start. Michigan jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the second quarter. The Wolverines had doubled Illinois’ total yardage at that point. Then the third quarter arrived, and fans remembered suddenly that Michigan still has issues. I don’t think most of the fan base is going to feel any better after that 42-25 victory over the Illini.
Offensively, there was a clear commitment to running game from the start. Michigan ran on 66% of their 68 plays. That represents the highest run ratio of 2019. It seems the offensive line was challenged to steady the struggling offense, and they answered the call. The 6.5 yards per rush today is nearly a full yard more than the previous high of 5.8 versus MTSU in Week 1. When we pair that explosiveness with a 56% success rate on run plays, the Wolverines had a clear identity today. Shea Patterson added 194 yards passing and 4 touchdowns (1 rush).
Reading that text implies that it was a great day for the offense. Unfortunately, that is not the case. The fumbles continue to plague Michigan. They put it on the deck officially 3 more times today and lost 2. A fourth fumble by Christian Turner didn’t make the box score because he was ruled down by contact. At a minimum, this offense was more explosive, but fumble-itis still appears to be a potential fatal flaw.
For the defense, Michigan was again dominant for 3 of the 4 quarters of this game. Coming out of half time, while the offense could not move or hold onto the ball, the defense wore down. Illinois was on the field for 24 plays in the third quarter, and Michigan only 11. During that stretch and into the fourth quarter, Illinois scored 25 unanswered points and cut the lead to just a field goal. Finally, multiple senior leaders stepped up and made big plays to save the Wolverines. A strip sack by Jordan Glasgow, another strip sack by Mike Danna evened the turnover margin. That response allowed the offense to take advantage of the short field and create some breathing room.
Michigan has now completed half the regular season. I predicted the Wolverines would be 5-1 at this point, but something still feels off. So far, this season feels like driving a car with the check engine light on, and the smell of burning oil in the air. We are still moving forward toward the destination, but there is an ominous feeling that this thing could blow up at any moment. The coming week is absolutely gigantic, and will be pivotal for the 2019 season. This staff and these players must get under the hood and tighten up all the loose connections and seal the leaks. These Wolverines will need all systems functional to have any chance against Penn State. Once we get to the White Out on Saturday night, Michigan must press the gas pedal to the floor and pray for the best.
Michigan powered through Iowa in a 10-3 defensive struggle. Some questions were answered on defense, but many remain for the offensive staff.
NEXT UP: @ Illinois: 71st, -0.3
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 15.4, Michigan Win Probability 81% The Wolverines are back into a spot where only under-performance against the Illini will garner any attention. If they manage to win by 3+ scores, the caveats will lead every conversation.
Michigan Offense (66th) vs. Illinois Defense (82nd) Josh Gattis gets a second opportunity for a “get right game”. This Illinois defense currently ranks twelve spots behind the Rutgers unit that gave up 52 points in the Big House. I expect this week’s offensive strategy to mirror what we saw against the Scarlet Knights. Shea Patterson will be moving out of the pocket and the Big 3 receivers will be mixing and matching on a handful of downfield route combos. Michigan will attempt to run only a handful of play types out of multiple formations and personnel groupings. The challenge will be to execute plays consecutively. I’d like to see a very specific script in the first quarter that let’s each play maker touch the ball at least once. The concepts that work should come back in the second quarter forward.
Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Illinois Offense (54th) Illinois’ offensive coordinator, Rod Smith, just watched Don Brown flood Iowa’s backfield with varying blitz packages to rattle Nate Stanley. How will the Illini adjust to what they’ve seen on tape? I expect to see max protection packages on the majority of snaps. That means limited short route combinations that require a quick release. And if Brandon Peters cannot play in this game, then Smith will try to use the legs of either freshman QB Isiah Williams or freshman QB Matt Robinson to flee from Aidan Hutchinson and Kwity Paye (Salt & Pepper). I cannot envision a scenario where Illinois can march down the field on sustained drives. To make any impact on the scoreboard, the Illini will need explosive plays or turnovers from their defense to play on a short field.
PREDICTION: Illinois’ offense was ranked 54th in SP+ in the preseason and are still right in that spot. However, the previous five games were started by Brandon Peters. Don Brown’s group will be teeing off this week. For Michigan, the real challenge of this game is getting off to a quick start on the road. In 2018 Michigan averaged minus-7 to the SP+ projection in road games. I still have to see the Wolverines respond effectively to adversity on the road before I can predict success ahead of time. I’ll keep my expected offensive prediction from the preseason, but the Illini aren’t going to reach the end zone twice. Michigan 27 Illinois 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 Illinois 14)
Final Score: 10-3, Michigan by 7 over Iowa SP+ Projection: Michigan by 4.0 (+3) CD Projection: Michigan by 7 (same)
FIVE FACTORS
WEEK 6 RECAP vs. Iowa
On a classic “Big Ten weather” October day (59º and gray), Michigan and Iowa played a throwback Big Ten style smashmouth game. The Wolverines were able to hold on and beat the Hawkeyes 10-3 thanks in large part to a swarming defense. Michigan’s offense still appears disjointed most of the time as Shea Patterson struggles to spread the ball around to multiple weapons.
The defensive staff deserves a ton of credit. Don Brown’s unit continues to tinker with multiple fronts and coverages in an attempt to confuse the offense. For today, it was a rousing success. Michigan was able to record 13 tackles for loss and 8 sacks against a Hawkeye squad that had not given up many negative plays through four games. Within both zone and man coverage schemes, Cam McGrone and Daxton Hill were called upon to handle more issues with crossing routes. Iowa did find minimal success in the short middle passing game, so the tinkering will continue. Also of concern was an apparent hamstring injury to Kwity Paye. When he left in the third quarter, he had already recorded 2.5 sacks.
On the other side of the ball, the offensive staff is still searching for rhythm and consistency. Michigan only managed 267 total yards and two first-half scores. Shea Patterson went 14-26 for 147 yards while rushing 7 times for 25 yards. The only Michigan touchdown came from Zach Charbonnet in the first quarter. Charbonnet was the leading rusher on the day with 42 yards. Michigan accumulated 120 yards total rushing. Going forward, Josh Gattis still needs to identify the core plays that he can script to get the passing game into rhythm. It was encouraging to see the QB read option and arc play return to the arsenal.
This game was important to show that this team can play a tough physical game and hold up. After getting decimated by Wisconsin, the Wolverines welcomed senior Mike Dwumfour back to the defensive line for today. Also, it appears that Cam McGrone may be a budding star in the middle of the defense. When the dust settled, Michigan won because they were able to avoid making big mistakes. Iowa was saddled with penalties and turnovers, especially in the second half.
Finally, it will be absolutely critical to correct the kicking game. Both kickers missed field goal attempts. We saw more poor punts than good ones from Will Hart. Also, this team and program still need to prove they can come up with a good performance on the road. Jim Harbaugh has a big challenge in front of him to get all three phases working smoothly away from the Big House for the next two weeks. Onward!
