Tag: 2022

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By the Numbers: Game 5 @ Nebraska

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines stood tall after Rutgers came out swinging in the B1G opener.  Michigan scored 31 unanswered points after a poor start and salted the game away in the 4th quarter for a 31-7 victory over the Scarlet Knights.

NEXT UP: @ Nebraska: SP+ 59th, 1.9

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 22.3, Michigan Win Probability 90%

While Michigan has climbed to the top of the SP+ rankings, Nebraska has a very similar profile to the Rutgers team that was just in Ann Arbor.  The Cornhuskers are also carried by a legitimate defensive unit and find themselves sitting 10 spots ahead of Rugers, for now.

Michigan Offense (13th) vs. Nebraska Defense (28th) 

For a second consecutive week, this matchup will likely play the biggest role in the final outcome of the game.  Nebraska has a stout, 3-man defensive line.  They also utilize a similar 3-3-5 scheme that has caused some blocking issues for Michigan’s run attack this season and last.  While the Cornhuskers have put up impressive defensive stats, Michigan’s offense will be the first significant test in the ground game. 

Through the air, JJ McCarthy had a solid bounce back performance last week.  Sherrone Moore schemed up a few beautiful chunk plays through the air early, but put those back into the garage almost immediately.  I think it would be wise to utilize the best designed plays early in this contest.  A couple early scores would be extremely valuable to take some of the starch out of that passionate Nebraska crowd. 

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Nebraska Offense (85th)

As a program, Nebraska is going through a major transition as Matt Rhule tries to leave the Scott Frost era in the past.  Part of that transition appears to include a return to leaning on a running quarterback, and even some option looks.  In the first two games, both losses, turnover-worthy plays plagued quarterback Jeff Sims. Heinrich Haarberg has now taken over to lead the new QB rushing attack.

I would expect Michigan to be tested on the edges in this game.  I can’t imagine Nebraska trying to man up and block Kris Jenkins and the other defensive tackles.  Instead, look for the Cornhuskers testing Braiden McGregor, Josiah Stewart, and the other edge players with various option looks.  The three Wolverine linebackers will also be tested when Nebraska spreads their formation to isolate Haarberg with the LBs on draw plays. 

PREDICTION: Nebraska’s similarity to Rutgers is striking.  They want to lean heavily on a rushing attack that features the quarterback.  This is likely to keep the clock running, shortening this game yet again.  When there are fewer plays over the course of a full game, then the less talented team has a better chance to catch lightning in a bottle a few times to stay competitive.  

In terms of scheme, gameplan, and talent Michigan will have a huge advantage in each phase.  However, I do expect to see a somewhat sluggish start in the Wolverines’ first road trip.  In the past we’ve seen Michigan struggle early on the road, especially when moving out of the noon time slot.  This 3:30 kickoff in Lincoln poses the first mental challenge of this kind in the 2023 season.
Michigan 28 Nebraska 7 (PRESEASON Michigan 34 Nebraska 13)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/25/23, 4-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (↑2), 26.7
    • SP+ Offense: 13th (↑3), 36.8
    • SP+ Defense: 1st (↑1), 10.4
    • SP+ Special Teams: 16th (↓11), 0.3
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1445
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1495
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Michigan 31 Rutgers 7 – Game 4 Recap

WEEK 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-7, Michigan by 24 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 28.6 (-4.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 17 (+7)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 4 RECAP vs. Rutgers

A longing feeling still remains with the offense.  It’s not very easy to put a finger on, but we can certainly feel like there is more potential remaining untapped.  But, Michigan gained over 400 yards, and again eclipsed 50% success rate in the run game.  We got an early peek at some creative play calling in the first quarter with a reverse flea flicker.  I also enjoy the two-running back formations that the Wolverines put on film today.  But, after those schemes were successful, they went back into the garage and the Wolverines methodically trampled the Rutgers defensive front.  Blake Corum finished with 97 yards and 2 touchdowns.  JJ McCarthy was cleaner today, going 15-for-21 through the air for 214 yards and a touchdown.

The defense had an unfortunate missed tackle on Rutgers’ first series of the day.  A 69-yard touchdown pass on the third snap sucked the energy right out of the building.  However, the Michigan defense flexed after the start of the 2nd quarter.  The Scarlet Knights only gained 122 yards in the final three quarters of the game.  Junior Colson led on the stat sheet with six tackles.  But, the most electric moment of the game was a 71-yard pick six by captain Mike Sainristil in the 3rd quarter.  Rutgers never seriously threatened to score again.

The kicking game also left something to be desired.   James Turner narrowly missed a 42-yard field goal wide.  Also, Jake Thaw wasn’t aggressive on an early punt and let it roll out.  The result was a 75-yard field punt that flipped the field position.  There is still no alarm to panic about, but this team will need to improve their special teams execution to win the biggest games on the schedule. 

Overall, the Wolverines have held serve through these opening four home games.  Now, Michigan must pack a few more improvements into their suitcases and travel for the first time in 2023 next week.  We’ll keep an eye on exactly how good a win this ends up being over Rutgers.  I think that team should head to a bowl this season, and might surprise one or two B1G teams, also.  Onward!

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Michigan 31 Bowling Green 6 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-6, Michigan by 25 over BGSU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 45.1 (-20.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-8)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Bowling Green

Do you want the good news first, or the bad news? For the third consecutive week, Michigan had one phase of the offense humming, but struggled in the other. JJ McCarthy threw 3 interceptions, all of them on scoring opportunities inside Bowling Green’s 40-yard line. In addition to the turnovers, he also missed a few open receivers with his eyes, and a couple with his arm. While the passing attack struggled, Michigan returned to sky-high success rate on the ground (68%). Blake Corum kicked the game off with a 54-yard scamper, and Donovan Edwards also averaged 5.6 yards per carry for the game.

The defense was physically dominant again for the third consecutive week. On a night that Michigan turned the ball over four times, the shut out potential was lost early. However, the pass rush and ball-hawking secondary combined to create three turnovers to help balance the scales. One particular highlight was Mason Graham pressuring the Falcons’ quarterback on a screen pass that was picked off by tackle Kris Jenkins. Jenkins had his eyes on the end zone, but was dragged down just short. Corum pounded the ball in for Michigan’s third touchdown.

Special teams was uncharacteristically sloppy as well. The most costly event was a fumbled pooch kick by Max Bredeson after Bowling Green’s first field goal. That quick change resulted in the second score allowed by the defensive unit, but they would not allow any more. On the positive side of the ledger, James Turner looks like he’s settled in as the place kicker. Also, both Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris were sure-handed while fielding bouncing punts.

This was a text book example of an ugly win. The Wolverines were able to win comfortably based on their defensive line dominance and creating explosive offensive plays. This might be the ugliest of the three games we’ve seen in 2023, but the concern is that we still haven’t seen a complete performance from Michigan. The next test from Rutgers will force the Wolverines to put all the pieces together. The Scarlet Knights come to Ann Arbor next week with a 3-0 record. Onward!

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Michigan 35 UNLV 7 – Game 2 Recap

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 35-7, Michigan by 28 over UNLV
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 40.2 (-12.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. UNLV

JJ McCarthy was able to match his Week 1 performance going 22-25 through the air for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eventually, the Wolverines nudged their rushing total up to 179 yards, but there is still a feel that they have another gear or maybe two gears they haven’t hit yet in 2023. We did see the Wolverines add the quarterback to the running attack. McCarthy had a 17 yard run on a keeper to set up a Blake Corum touchdown.

The most entertainment value in the 2nd half came from another shutout watch for Jesse Minter’s defense. Michigan set up shop in the UNLV backfield and finished with 10 tackles for loss. Perhaps the most valuable part of the game was adding snaps and reps for the players down the depth chart. The Wolverines were again without Rod Moore and Will Johnson for most of this game as a precaution. Today Quinten Johnson made some impact from the safety position, especially as a blitzer.

James Turner didn’t get any field goal opportunities, but was a perfect 5-for-5 on extra points. In the return game, Semaj Morgan and Kalel Mullings both had 20+ yard kick returns, and we saw a flash of explosiveness from Tyler Morris on punt return. Morris made his first appearance this week after sitting out the opener with a minor injury, and also made a great 3rd down catch in the first half.

Hard to find a whole lot to nit pick in Michigan’s second consecutive solid performance. The defense might be more dominant than 2022 if the pass rush continues to ascend for the defensive line. JJ McCarthy is playing nearly perfectly, albeit versus two lackluster defensive units. Once Michigan settles on their offensive line starters, and Blake Corum knocks the rest of the recovery rust off, the Wolverines seem primed to unleash their full potential in the Big Ten season. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 2 vs. UNLV

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan nearly shut out the Pirates of East Carolina, 30-3.  JJ McCarthy had nearly as many touchdown passes (3) as he had incompletions (4), and the defense was dominant despite missing a few stars in the secondary. 

NEXT UP: vs. UNLV: SP+ 93rd, -9.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 40.2, Michigan Win Probability 99%
While the Wolverines stayed at #3 in the SP+ for Week 2, the Rebels moved up 17 spots on the back of their 44-14 victory over the FCS Bryant Bulldogs.  Bill Connelly’s model spit out a Week 2 Michigan prediction (M 45-5) that is almost exactly the same as the Week 1 prediction (45-4).

Michigan Offense (11th) vs. UNLV Defense (100th) 

The Wolverines will look to maintain balance between run & pass play calling in 2023.  Michigan was quicker to adjust the game plan last week when ECU clearly sold out to stop the run.  Kirk Campbell turned the reins over to JJ McCarthy as soon a field position allowed on the second possession.  In addition to utilizing multiple receiving targets, Michigan will look to test the edge more frequently this week.  This should provide more points of comparison at both tackle positions.  We expect to see two new starters against UNLV: Trente Jones and Ladarius Henderson. 

The Rebels’ base defense is a  3-3-5, similar to what Michigan saw recently versus TCU and East Carolina.  While I expect UNLV will try to duplicate the TCU/ECU game plan that held Michigan’s run game in check, I don’t believe they will be successful to the same degree.  This UNLV unit just gave up 400+ yards of offense to FCS-level Bryant in Week 1.  Despite ceding all that yardage, UNLV managed to tighten up inside their own 40 yard line and only allowed 14 points.  For Michigan, the key metric this week will be points per scoring opportunity.

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. UNLV Offense (89th)

UNLV runs an uncommon system called the Go-Go offense.  My oversimplified description: it’s a shotgun two-back system that relies heavily on option-style runs that include the quarterback.  While they will churn up most of their yardage on the ground, the passing game goes for the jugular by pushing the ball vertically on sporadic deep shots.  By now you probably have heard that Saturday also marks the return of Ricky White, the former Spartan wide receiver who showed loads of deep ball prowess in the Big House in 2020.  

While Michigan will have a talent advantage in the trenches, I am most encouraged by how clean the three top linebackers played last week.  Chris Partridge’s group will need to be sound in their assignments and run fits to stop this rushing attack.  The Wolverines may also welcome the return of corner Will Johnson and possibly safety Rod Moore to extend a talent advantage on the perimeter.

PREDICTION: Jay Harbaugh will assume head coaching duties in the first half, and Mike Hart will take over in the second half while Jim Harbaugh serves the second of his three-game suspension Saturday.  Michigan also adds offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore back to the sideline after a one game suspension.  Switching head coaches mid-game seems like an unnecessary risk to me.  However, I am confident the return of Moore as a play caller and as the OL coach will make Game 2 a net positive for the staff. 

UNLV started the 2023 season ranked 110th overall in SP+.  By the end of this season, I think this team may get up near the top half of FBS teams.  The Rebels will be interesting to watch all season, but they are not ready defensively to stop a balanced Michigan attack. 

I am reducing my expected points scored from my preseason estimate due to the new clock rules.  Both teams will feature plenty of run plays, and we might see both teams run fewer than 70 total plays in the game.  It’s critical to avoid huge mistakes on special teams and stay even in turnover margin to remove any thoughts of an upset.  I expect Michigan will almost cover the 36-point spread, but not quite.  
Michigan 40 UNLV 7 (PRESEASON Michigan 52 UNLV 6)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/05/23, 1-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 28.0
    • SP+ Offense: 11th (↓4), 38.3
    • SP+ Defense: 3rd (↑1), 10.4
    • SP+ Special Teams: 40th, 0.1
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1485
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1534
  • CFP Rank: N/A
2023 Michigan Wolverine Football Depth Chart – Game 2 vs UNLV