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By the Numbers: Game 2 vs. UNLV

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan nearly shut out the Pirates of East Carolina, 30-3.  JJ McCarthy had nearly as many touchdown passes (3) as he had incompletions (4), and the defense was dominant despite missing a few stars in the secondary. 

NEXT UP: vs. UNLV: SP+ 93rd, -9.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 40.2, Michigan Win Probability 99%
While the Wolverines stayed at #3 in the SP+ for Week 2, the Rebels moved up 17 spots on the back of their 44-14 victory over the FCS Bryant Bulldogs.  Bill Connelly’s model spit out a Week 2 Michigan prediction (M 45-5) that is almost exactly the same as the Week 1 prediction (45-4).

Michigan Offense (11th) vs. UNLV Defense (100th) 

The Wolverines will look to maintain balance between run & pass play calling in 2023.  Michigan was quicker to adjust the game plan last week when ECU clearly sold out to stop the run.  Kirk Campbell turned the reins over to JJ McCarthy as soon a field position allowed on the second possession.  In addition to utilizing multiple receiving targets, Michigan will look to test the edge more frequently this week.  This should provide more points of comparison at both tackle positions.  We expect to see two new starters against UNLV: Trente Jones and Ladarius Henderson. 

The Rebels’ base defense is a  3-3-5, similar to what Michigan saw recently versus TCU and East Carolina.  While I expect UNLV will try to duplicate the TCU/ECU game plan that held Michigan’s run game in check, I don’t believe they will be successful to the same degree.  This UNLV unit just gave up 400+ yards of offense to FCS-level Bryant in Week 1.  Despite ceding all that yardage, UNLV managed to tighten up inside their own 40 yard line and only allowed 14 points.  For Michigan, the key metric this week will be points per scoring opportunity.

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. UNLV Offense (89th)

UNLV runs an uncommon system called the Go-Go offense.  My oversimplified description: it’s a shotgun two-back system that relies heavily on option-style runs that include the quarterback.  While they will churn up most of their yardage on the ground, the passing game goes for the jugular by pushing the ball vertically on sporadic deep shots.  By now you probably have heard that Saturday also marks the return of Ricky White, the former Spartan wide receiver who showed loads of deep ball prowess in the Big House in 2020.  

While Michigan will have a talent advantage in the trenches, I am most encouraged by how clean the three top linebackers played last week.  Chris Partridge’s group will need to be sound in their assignments and run fits to stop this rushing attack.  The Wolverines may also welcome the return of corner Will Johnson and possibly safety Rod Moore to extend a talent advantage on the perimeter.

PREDICTION: Jay Harbaugh will assume head coaching duties in the first half, and Mike Hart will take over in the second half while Jim Harbaugh serves the second of his three-game suspension Saturday.  Michigan also adds offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore back to the sideline after a one game suspension.  Switching head coaches mid-game seems like an unnecessary risk to me.  However, I am confident the return of Moore as a play caller and as the OL coach will make Game 2 a net positive for the staff. 

UNLV started the 2023 season ranked 110th overall in SP+.  By the end of this season, I think this team may get up near the top half of FBS teams.  The Rebels will be interesting to watch all season, but they are not ready defensively to stop a balanced Michigan attack. 

I am reducing my expected points scored from my preseason estimate due to the new clock rules.  Both teams will feature plenty of run plays, and we might see both teams run fewer than 70 total plays in the game.  It’s critical to avoid huge mistakes on special teams and stay even in turnover margin to remove any thoughts of an upset.  I expect Michigan will almost cover the 36-point spread, but not quite.  
Michigan 40 UNLV 7 (PRESEASON Michigan 52 UNLV 6)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/05/23, 1-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 28.0
    • SP+ Offense: 11th (↓4), 38.3
    • SP+ Defense: 3rd (↑1), 10.4
    • SP+ Special Teams: 40th, 0.1
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1485
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1534
  • CFP Rank: N/A
2023 Michigan Wolverine Football Depth Chart – Game 2 vs UNLV
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Michigan 30 East Carolina 3 – Game 1 Recap

GAME 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 30-3, Michigan by 27 over ECU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 40.9 (-13.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 32 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 1 RECAP vs. ECU

Offensively, the number that stands out is 60(%).  Michigan called pass plays 60% of the snaps that were non-garbage time against ECU.  That clarifies an increased focus on letting J.J. McCarthy have more control over the game.  He stepped up to the challenge by going 26-of-30 for 280 yards and connecting for 3 touchdowns to Roman Wilson.  There were hiccups, as we expected, with the offense in Sherrone Moore’s absence.  However, I expect that will smooth out when Moore returns and the offensive line continues to gel together.

The defense was robbed of a shutout on the final snap of the game.  ECU settled for the saddest possible 33-yard field goal to get onto the scoreboard with 0:05 left in the game.  The Wolverines gained a lot of game experience for their younger players, especially in the secondary.  With Will Johnson and Rod Moore both sitting out, Keon Sabb and Jyaire Hill stepped in admirably.  Kenneth Grant showed that he will be adding value to the interior pass rush.  He was in the face of ECU quarterback Mason Garcia to force an interception by Mike Sainristil.

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There was almost no way to sustain the kicking game level we’re used to from the Jake Moody / Brad Robbins era.  James Turner’s nerves got the best of him as he missed an extra point.  However, he showed plenty of leg while he nailed a 50-yard field goal in the first half, and missed a 53-yarder wide in the second half.

Overall, I didn’t see anything that made me change my expectations for the early portion of the season.  It was very encouraging to see an offensive commitment to the pass game, and we know the run game will sort itself out to some extent.  Other than the players who sat out, I think the Wolverines managed to stay healthy.  Next, Michigan will look to play a cleaner game under two different acting head coaches when they take on UNLV for Game #2.  Onward!