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By the Numbers: Game 6 @ Minnesota

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan finally delivered a dominant performance in all phases.  This one came on the road in Lincoln as the Wolverines pounded Nebraska 45-7. 

NEXT UP: @ Minnesota: SP+ 46th, 4.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 18.5, Michigan Win Probability 86%

Michigan stayed #1 overall in the SP+ rankings, thanks to the offense jumping back up into the top ten unit rankings.  The Golden Gophers are 46th overall, led by their 28th ranked defense.

Michigan Offense (9th) vs. Minnesota Defense (28th) 

The Wolverines may have settled on a 5-man offensive line unit for the time being.  Ladarius Henderson got his first start at left tackle last week, and Karsen Barnhart shifted over to right tackle.  The run game execution looked a little cleaner to me.  Now we’ll be looking to see Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards make a man miss and create explosive runs. 

JJ McCarthy is back to his razor sharp form.  McCarthy continues to carve up zone coverages through the middle of the field.  He also presents a major headache when he moves out of the pocket.  It’s nearly impossible to stay tight in coverage on Michigan’s receivers for the extra three or four seconds when JJ is on the move.  I expect to see the Wolverines exploit the middle of Minnesota’s defense through the air, but maybe we will see more targets toward the tight ends today.  

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Minnesota Offense (77th)

Week six presents another lopsided mismatch for the Michigan defense.  Minnesota has an OK running attack when they are at full strength, but they have been missing their best running back recently.  Regardless of who is carrying the ball, defensive tackles Kris Jenkins and Mason Graham have been almost impossible to block.  We expect Graham to return for this game with a club on his hand.  I will be interested to see if he sheds blocks at the same rate without use of one hand.  

The Wolverines’ pass defense presents the best opportunity for growth and improvement in Minneapolis.  We still haven’t seen the outside corners challenge and press the opposing wide receivers at the line of scrimmage.  Also, some of the zone coverages in the middle have yielded big windows for quarterbacks to hit slants, and those receivers have been able to run after the catch.  I will be looking for more aggressive coverage technique from the corners, expecting the ball to come out quickly.  The added aggression could yield multiple turnovers from Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis.  

PREDICTION: The first half of the regular season will come to close at the completion of tonight’s game.  There was remarkable similarity between the first three opponents, and now the 4th-6th opponents are equally comparable.  I think we’ll see a performance very similar to those against Rutgers and Nebraska. 

The one concerning question is whether the prime time (7:30 PM EST) time slot creates issues for Michigan as it did in Week 3 versus Bowling Green.  If the Wolverines come out and can generate another hot start on the road like last week, we’ll see matching results.  But, if there is a lack of energy, or any sloppiness that leads to early turnovers, this Minnesota team and crowd will be ready throw everything they have, including the kitchen sink, toward an upset bid.
Michigan 33 Minnesota 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 31 Minnesota 14)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 10/02/23, 5-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 25.0
    • SP+ Offense: 9th (↑4), 37.4
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↓1), 12.8
    • SP+ Special Teams: 8th (↑8), 0.4
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1436
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1503
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Michigan Football Podcast — Stacking Days – Game 6 Minnesota Preview

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer preview the game vs Minnestoa – SP+ analysis and commentary. With Donovan Edwards, Roman Wilson, Braiden McGregor, Zak Zinter and Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Summary

  • Michigan Wolverines’ upcoming game vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers.0:00
    • Michigan previews game vs. Minnesota, with Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discussing the Wolverines’ undefeated record and the Golden Gophers’ 3-2 record.
  • Similarities in opponents and performance in Big Ten season games.0:51
    • Clint Derringer notes similarities between Michigan’s first three Big Ten games, including strong defense and weak offense.
  • Michigan Wolverines football team’s performance and evaluation.2:24
    • Phil Callihan expresses hope for Michigan’s performance against Minnesota, looking for signs of improvement in areas such as overcoming adversity and running game success.
    • Jim Harbaugh responds to listener comments, emphasizing the importance of hard work and avoiding complacency.
  • Michigan Wolverines football team’s linebacker corps and defensive line.5:05
    • Michigan’s JJ McCarthy and linebackers face new challenges against Minnesota.
    • Michigan’s defensive line is nearly unblockable, causing offensive struggles.
  • Defensive strategy and focus on stacking days.8:27
    • Braiden McGregor emphasizes the importance of focusing on the present game rather than looking ahead to future opponents.
    • The defense is aiming to “stack days” by having one good game on top of another, with the goal of being ready at the end of the season.
  • Michigan football team’s offensive performance and upcoming game against Minnesota.11:22
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss the performance of Michigan’s offense, with Derringer expressing concern about patterns in their play and Callihan suggesting that Minnesota has the highest ranked SP plus offense on Michigan’s schedule.
    • Derringer and Callihan debate the ranking of Minnesota’s offense, with Derringer citing UNLV’s 73rd ranked offense and Callihan choosing Minnesota based on their limited success.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes similarities in Michigan’s schedule and notes Minnesota’s reliance on a running quarterback as a concern.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ upcoming game vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers.15:57
    • Phil Callihan: Michigan responded well on the road, scoring 37 and 35 points in their last two games.
    • Roman Wilson: Michigan likes playing away games more than home games, enjoying the opportunity to take over a stadium and quiet fans down.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Minnesota’s situation, describing them as “cornered animals” with nothing to lose, which could lead to a high-intensity game.
    • JJ McCarthy is playing well, threatening defenses with his legs and arm, and Roman Wilson is a fast receiver who can make big plays.
  • Team dynamics and player focus during lesser opponents games.22:03
    • Phil Callihan praises JJ’s smart running and ability to avoid big hits, noting the importance of protecting the quarterback, especially early in the season.
    • Zak Zinter emphasizes the importance of team success leading to individual success, and how the offensive line is contributing to the team’s success.
    • Donovan Edwards and Phil Callihan emphasize the importance of teamwork and camaraderie on the Michigan football team, with Edwards highlighting the selflessness and lack of ego among players.
    • Callihan notes the team’s focus on the process rather than early season results, with players putting the team ahead of individual goals.
  • Michigan Wolverines football culture and player quotes.27:58
    • Clint Derringer praises Jim Harbaugh for revamping his coaching staff and creating a positive culture in Michigan’s Football building, leading to improved player confidence and humility.
    • Derringer attributes the team’s success to Harbaugh’s willingness to self-reflect and make changes after the 2020 season, resulting in a stronger cultural foundation and recruiting strategy.
    • Phil Callihan and Zak Zinter discuss the impact of COVID-19 on the team’s culture and motivation.
    • Ernest Hausmann talks about the “Michigan method” of playing the best players, and how it’s applied in the building.
  • Michigan Wolverines football culture and player relationships.34:04
    • Jim Harbaugh’s comments on gravity and football team dynamics reveal a deeper, more thoughtful side of the coach.
    • Phil Callihan observes a shift in Michigan football culture under Jim Harbaugh, with a focus on truth and openness, rather than loyalty and seniority.
    • Callihan notes that this culture allows for freshmen and sophomores to play, even if juniors and seniors are outplayed, creating a more competitive and dynamic team.
  • Michigan Wolverines football and coach Jim Harbaugh.39:57
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss Jim Harbaugh’s personality and coaching style, with Derringer praising Harbaugh’s quirkiness and enjoyment of making others feel awkward.
    • Donovan Edwards expresses gratitude for being at the University of Michigan and enjoying his time on the team, despite occasional discomfort during practice.
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Michigan Football Podcast — Process over Prize – Game 5 Michigan 45 Nebraska 7

Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer discuss Michigan’s 45-7 victory over Nebraska. With J.J. McCarthy, Roman Wilson, Trevor Keegan, and Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Summary

  • Michigan’s dominant victory over Nebraska.0:00
    • Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss Michigan’s convincing victory over Nebraska, with Phil expressing confidence in the team’s performance from the start.
    • Clint Derringer highlights the team’s quick start, methodical drives, and key turnovers that led to a 45-7 victory.
    • Michigan’s defense is dominating, swallowing up opponents’ run games.
  • Michigan football game with analysis of players’ performances.4:45
    • Michigan’s secondary struggles with deep passes, allowing explosive plays.
    • Michigan coach Phil Callihan praises second-string players’ success in blowout win.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ football team’s performance and upcoming games.9:06
    • Depth players have gained significant experience, providing comfort for Michigan in competitive stretch.
    • Michigan football fans are experiencing a mix of emotions during games, including excitement and frustration.
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss the potential risk of Michigan being unprepared for the second half of the season due to a softer first half schedule.
    • They mention the importance of simulating competition in practice to prepare for when the talent gap closes.
  • Michigan football’s performance in a windy game.15:38
    • Clint Derringer analyzes the Quarterback’s performance in high winds, noting overthrows and a lower completion percentage than usual.
    • Michigan’s offense was efficient and balanced in their win, with a mix of rushing and passing plays.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ football team’s strengths and weaknesses.19:46
    • Michigan’s success on both sides of the line (offense and defense) has been key to their recent success.
    • Phil Callihan observes that Michigan’s schedule is structured to prioritize the second half of the season, including the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoffs.
    • Jim Harbaugh and Clint Derringer discuss the team’s approach to load management, with Derringer expressing concern about keeping their best players fresh while still performing at a high level in every game.
    • Michigan defense held Nebraska to 9% success rate on run plays, while Michigan run plays had a 57% success rate.
  • Michigan Wolverines football team’s defense and offense.26:07
    • Phil Callihan notes that the defense is “a meat grinder” and “coming in waves,” with players like Josiah Stewart and Mason Kg making big impacts.
    • Braiden McGregor calls the no name defense a “great way to put it,” highlighting its strength and potential to be a major factor in games.
    • Braiden McGregor: Trust built through defense mentality, with players looking to each other for support and leadership.
    • Roman Wilson: Confident in his abilities, Wilson brings swagger to the team and has answered the call, staying healthy for more than half the season.
  • Michigan Wolverines football team’s defense and offense.31:40
    • Clint Derringer highlights potential weaknesses in Michigan’s defense and how Ohio State can exploit them through the air.
    • Michigan football coach Jim Harbaugh emphasizes the importance of players loving the game and taking every opportunity to maximize their potential.
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By the Numbers: Game 5 @ Nebraska

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines stood tall after Rutgers came out swinging in the B1G opener.  Michigan scored 31 unanswered points after a poor start and salted the game away in the 4th quarter for a 31-7 victory over the Scarlet Knights.

NEXT UP: @ Nebraska: SP+ 59th, 1.9

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 22.3, Michigan Win Probability 90%

While Michigan has climbed to the top of the SP+ rankings, Nebraska has a very similar profile to the Rutgers team that was just in Ann Arbor.  The Cornhuskers are also carried by a legitimate defensive unit and find themselves sitting 10 spots ahead of Rugers, for now.

Michigan Offense (13th) vs. Nebraska Defense (28th) 

For a second consecutive week, this matchup will likely play the biggest role in the final outcome of the game.  Nebraska has a stout, 3-man defensive line.  They also utilize a similar 3-3-5 scheme that has caused some blocking issues for Michigan’s run attack this season and last.  While the Cornhuskers have put up impressive defensive stats, Michigan’s offense will be the first significant test in the ground game. 

Through the air, JJ McCarthy had a solid bounce back performance last week.  Sherrone Moore schemed up a few beautiful chunk plays through the air early, but put those back into the garage almost immediately.  I think it would be wise to utilize the best designed plays early in this contest.  A couple early scores would be extremely valuable to take some of the starch out of that passionate Nebraska crowd. 

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Nebraska Offense (85th)

As a program, Nebraska is going through a major transition as Matt Rhule tries to leave the Scott Frost era in the past.  Part of that transition appears to include a return to leaning on a running quarterback, and even some option looks.  In the first two games, both losses, turnover-worthy plays plagued quarterback Jeff Sims. Heinrich Haarberg has now taken over to lead the new QB rushing attack.

I would expect Michigan to be tested on the edges in this game.  I can’t imagine Nebraska trying to man up and block Kris Jenkins and the other defensive tackles.  Instead, look for the Cornhuskers testing Braiden McGregor, Josiah Stewart, and the other edge players with various option looks.  The three Wolverine linebackers will also be tested when Nebraska spreads their formation to isolate Haarberg with the LBs on draw plays. 

PREDICTION: Nebraska’s similarity to Rutgers is striking.  They want to lean heavily on a rushing attack that features the quarterback.  This is likely to keep the clock running, shortening this game yet again.  When there are fewer plays over the course of a full game, then the less talented team has a better chance to catch lightning in a bottle a few times to stay competitive.  

In terms of scheme, gameplan, and talent Michigan will have a huge advantage in each phase.  However, I do expect to see a somewhat sluggish start in the Wolverines’ first road trip.  In the past we’ve seen Michigan struggle early on the road, especially when moving out of the noon time slot.  This 3:30 kickoff in Lincoln poses the first mental challenge of this kind in the 2023 season.
Michigan 28 Nebraska 7 (PRESEASON Michigan 34 Nebraska 13)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/25/23, 4-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (↑2), 26.7
    • SP+ Offense: 13th (↑3), 36.8
    • SP+ Defense: 1st (↑1), 10.4
    • SP+ Special Teams: 16th (↓11), 0.3
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1445
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1495
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Michigan Football Podcast — J.J. McCarthy, “Road Games Are My Favorite” – Game 5 Nebraska Preview

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer preview the game vs Nebraska – SP+ analysis and score prediction.

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Podcast Archive

Podcast Summary

  • Michigan’s upcoming game vs. Nebraska.0:00
    • Michigan players excited for road game against Nebraska, with J.J. McCarthy citing atmosphere as a key factor.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ defense and their ranking in SP Plus system.0:54
    • Clint Derringer: Michigan’s defense is similar to Michigan’s, with a focus on physical play and winning the field position battle.
    • Phil Callihan: Nebraska is in a rebuilding mode, with a new model of play inspired by Michigan’s success.
    • Clint Derringer: Michigan’s defense is top in nation in SP plus, with focus on efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and penalties.
    • Michigan’s defense ranks first in power rating and efficiency metric, while Nebraska’s offense ranks 59th.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Nebraska’s performance, noting they started at around 50-60 in the preseason, overperformed against Minnesota, then lost to Colorado and held serve against inferior opponents to climb back up to around 59th overall.
    • Derringer also highlights Nebraska’s strong defense, currently ranked 28th overall, as a significant improvement from their previous ranking and almost top-25 level.
  • College football team rankings using SP Plus.10:42
    • Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss the SP plus rankings in the Big Ten, highlighting how they can help compare teams with different common opponents and provide insight into a team’s performance.
    • They emphasize the importance of using actual data from the season to understand a team’s strengths and weaknesses, rather than relying solely on preseason assumptions.
    • Phil Callihan: Michigan, Ohio State top Big Ten SP plus rankings, with Maryland surprisingly high at fifth.
    • Clint Derringer: Rutgers climbing up rankings, potentially switching spots with Nebraska, while Northwestern and Michigan State typically fall.
    • Clint Derringer expects Michigan to cover the spread against Indiana, despite a low-scoring game due to the clock rules change.
    • Derringer compares the two teams to Nebraska, with both relying on defense and a run-heavy offense.
  • Michigan Wolverines football team’s performance and expectations.19:38
    • Phil Callihan wants to see Michigan’s offense find its rhythm and control the game from the start, particularly in the second quarter, to demonstrate their improvement and gelled offensive line.
    • Callihan hopes to see more explosive plays, such as a 50-yard run ending in a touchdown, from Blake and Donovan to build confidence and showcase their abilities.
    • Clint Derringer compares last year’s and this year’s team performance, finding similarities in run game efficiency but differences in passing game output.
    • Clint Derringer believes Michigan’s running game has potential but is not living up to last year’s performance, with Donovan Edwards struggling to find explosive plays despite similar early season statistics.
    • Derringer worries that Michigan may be holding back its running game too long, potentially leading to a lack of explosiveness in the season.