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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #11 – 01/08/2024 – Season On The Brink

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games this past week, and they lost both of them.  On Thursday (01/04/2024), they lost to Minnesota 73-71 in Crisler Arena, then on Sunday (01/07/2024), they lost to Penn State 79-73 in the Palestra, in Philadelphia.  The losses lower Michigan’s record to 6-9 (1-3 in Big Ten).

What Happened?

This season is officially “on the brink”.  Michigan had to win at least one of these games to stand any chance of a respectable season.  Instead, they let two very winnable games slip away.

Game Flow

Michigan led for at least half of the game vs. Minnesota, but they could never pull away.  They led by 4 points (37-33) at halftime, and they led for the first 10 minutes of the 2nd half.  Minnesota led for the next few minutes, but the game was all tied up (59-59) with 6:04 to go.  That was it, though: Minnesota led the rest of the way, although UM got within 2 points a couple times.  Michigan actually a 3-point shot to win and a 2-point shot to tie in the last few seconds, but they missed them.

The PSU game was very frustrating.  Michigan dominated early, up 12-2, 28-16, and 36-22.  They were in control of the game, but they started letting it slip away.  They were still up 10 at halftime (37-27), but they absolutely stunk in the 2nd half.  They were just horrible.  They threw away their hard-fought 10-point lead quickly, and once PSU got ahead, they were done.  They frittered away 9 of the 10 points in the first 3:27 of the 2nd half, leading by one point (42-41) with 16:33 to go.  They managed to hang onto a 1-3 point lead for the next couple minutes, but PSU finally went ahead 51-49 with 11:36 left, and that was the game.  Michigan never got close after that, and looked terrible doing it.

Stats

The game stats            for the Minnesota game were miserable: 41.4% shooting overall, 31.6% from deep, and 77.3% from the line.  Michigan actually won the rebounding battle (35-34), and tied in the turnover battle (9-9).  It was a close game, and the difference was poor shooting by Michigan.

The game stats for the PSU game were decent: 50.0% shooting overall, 33.3% from deep, and 65.0% from the line.  Michigan won the rebounding battle (39-31), but they killed themselves in the turnover battle: 19-7.  That’s how they lost the game: turnovers.

Who Started?

The starters were Nimari Burnett, Dug McDaniel, Olivier Nkamhoua, Tarris Reed, Jr., and Terrance Williams II.

Who Looked Good?

Nkamhoua hit double figures in both games: 16 and 13 points.  He also had 8 and 9 rebounds.

Burnett also hit double figures in both games: 17 and 10 points.

Williams had one mediocre game and one very good game: 7 and 24 points.  He was the leading scorer in the PSU game.  24 points is a new career high for him.

McDaniel had a decent week: 9 and 11 points.  He was badly outplayed by PSU’s point guard.

Reed had one good game and one mediocre game: 14 and 5 points.  He had 11 rebounds vs. Minnesota, for a double-double.

Will Tschetter had 5 and 4 points off the bench.

Tray Jackson had 3 and 5 points off the bench.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

No one had a not-so-good week.

Who Else Played?

Youssef Khayat played in both games, and scored 0 and 1 points.

Jaelin Llewellyn played in the PSU game, and missed both of his shot attempts.

Who Didn’t Play?

George Washington III was the only scholarship player who didn’t play in either game.

None of the Scout Team players played in either game: Ian Burns, Harrison Hochberg, Jackson Selvala, and Cooper Smith.

Jace Howard is still recovering from an injury, and not playing yet.  He’s expected back “later in the season”.

What Does It Mean?

This team is broken.  Their morale is shot.  They expect to lose, and they expect bad things to happen.  It a real shame, because they have decent talent, they just can’t seem to play a complete game any more.  I’ll be surprised if they win another game this season.  Yup, 6-26.

What’s Next?

This week, Michigan only plays one game.  On Thursday (01/11/2024, 7:00 p.m., FS1), they play at Maryland.

Maryland is currently 9-6 (1-3 in Big Ten).  They beat UCLA, but they lost to Davidson and UAB.  They’ve got a 7-footer and two 6’11” guys, so they’ll beat Michigan in the paint.  I don’t expect Michigan to stand much of a chance against Maryland, but they might hang around before they lose in the last minute.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!

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By the Numbers: Game 15 CFP Final vs. Washington

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines came back to force overtime on the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Then Blake Corum and the Michigan defense put the finishing touches on an epic 27-20 victory in the Rose Bowl to qualify for the CFP National Championship game.

NEXT UP: vs. Washington: SP+ 12th, 18.8

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.2, Michigan Win Probability 76%

The post-bowl SP+ rankings show why Bill Connelly is constantly tweaking the algorithm, especially as college football changes over time.  Michigan slid to #2 overall in the rankings because Georgia won by 60 over Florida State.  There is currently no way for the model to adjust for significant injuries or opt-outs, so the dozen or so missing players for the Noles were not accounted for. 

Michigan Offense (12th) vs. Washington Defense (44th) 

A huge advantage for Michigan exists when they have possession against the Huskies’ defense.  It is not a bad defense, especially in high leverage moments.  However, the Wolverines played eight opponents with defensive units ranked higher than Washington’s.  I expect Sherrone Moore to do what he’s done best all season.  Michigan will look for run-pass balance early on, but will rely on Blake Corum and the running game to wear down the Huskies and keep Michael Penix Jr. on the Washington sideline.

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Washington Offense (4th)

Both fan bases point to this strength-on-strength match up and warn the other side that they haven’t seen a unit like this in 2023.  While it’s true given the context of this season, I feel most comfortable with Michigan’s defense preparing for a Heisman contender at quarterback with All American wide receivers.  That’s because the entire defensive philosophy and scheme was designed to contain CJ Stroud, and the Ohio State wide receiver room.  Penix could very likely throw for over 300 yards again on Monday night.  In 2021, Stroud threw for 394 yards and two touchdowns himself.  The key will be whether Michigan can make key plays inside their own 40 yard line to force field goal attempts, or come up with 4th down stops.  

PREDICTION: The culmination of this amazing 2023 season has finally arrived.  The story started to build 12 full months ago when upperclassmen like Blake Corum, Michael Barrett, and Zak Zinter were considering their returns to Ann Arbor.  Immediately, the bar was set as high as possible when Corum declared to Crisler Arena in February that this team would win a National Championship.  Then, during the early season the Wolverines started rolling comfortably in each game.  The star players rarely played much in the second half of games, allowing depth players to get a significant number of snaps on both sides of the ball.  But then the tougher part of the schedule arrived, and something unexpected happened: the depth guys were still getting snaps at big moments of the big games!  

After reading, listening, talking (check out the preview podcast), and processing a lot of data about how this game could go, I think Michigan’s greatest edge might be their depth.  Wide receiver Tyler Morris just scored his first career touchdown to take the lead over Alabama in the Rose Bowl.  Safeties Quentin Johnson & Keon Sabb were both forced into duty by an untimely injury during the fourth quarter, and they both made huge plays late.  The Wolverines harassed Jalen Milroe all night while still rotating at least seven defensive linemen consistently (prayers up for Rayshaun Benny).  Michigan created game plans and managed their roster for an entire season to ensure they could be as close to full strength as possible in the College Football Playoff.  Now it’s time to go play the game, and earn not only the National Title, but the title of Greatest Michigan Team of All Time. 
Michigan 31 Washington 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 01/02/24, 14-0

  • SP+ Overall: 2nd (↓1), 31.0
    • SP+ Offense: 12th (↓2), 36.5
    • SP+ Defense: 1st (same), 7.3
    • SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓3), 1.8
  • AP Poll: 1st (same)
  • Coaches’ Poll: 1st (same)
  • CFP Rank: 1st (same)
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Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Chasing Perfection – National Championship Preview

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer the National Championship game versus Washington with special guest Andrew Percival @PDawg206 also RB Blake Corum, QB J.J. McCarthy, and Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Archive

Podcast Summary

  • Michigan football’s chances against Washington based on SP plus ratings.0:00
    • Offensive players emphasize teamwork and balance in attacking opponents.
    • Clint Derringer expects a strength-on-strength battle between Michigan’s defense and Washington’s offense.
    • Michigan offensive game plan was better than initially thought, despite sputtering at times.
  • Michigan’s strength in computer rankings.6:27
    • Percival highlights Michigan’s exceptional performance in advanced metrics, ranking them #1 in the country per their model.
    • The model favors Michigan over Alabama, despite Michigan not playing a non-conference P5 opponent, as the Big Ten is ranked #4 in the country.
  • Washington Huskies’ football team’s journey and performance.9:27
    • Phil Callihan reflects on Michigan Wolverines’ three-year journey, including their dramatic victory over Alabama and the team’s resilience despite setbacks.
    • Andrew Lange characterizes the team’s ride this season as “so much fun,” highlighting their strong start, mid-season ups and downs, and notable wins.
    • Percival highlights Washington’s close games against Oregon and Utah, describing them as “torturous nerve-racking” experiences.
    • Percival recounts Washington’s dramatic victory over Washington State, including a fourth-down conversion and a 25-yard touchdown reception.
    • Percival highlights Washington’s exceptional performance in close games, including a 3-point win over Oregon and a 4-point win over Texas as an underdog.
    • Phil Callihan expresses disappointment that Michigan and Washington won’t face off in the Rose Bowl, but is content with the win over Alabama.
  • Michigan football’s defense and their matchup against Washington’s Heisman-contending quarterback, Michael Penix.17:36
    • Michigan’s defense has remained consistent under different coordinators, with a focus on parallel strategies and successful game planning.
    • Clint Derringer sees Michael Penix as a transformed quarterback who went from good to great after developing his pocket passing skills, and now has the potential to lead Washington to victory against Michigan.
    • Phil Callihan agrees, noting that Penix’s game has evolved significantly since his Indiana days, and he now has the Heisman Trophy credentials to back it up.
  • Quarterback Penix’s accuracy and power.23:23
    • Penix has an “electric arm” with accuracy and power, demonstrated by his deep balls and ability to throw at a lower trajectory.
    • Penix’s progressions are quick, and he can throw with both power and accuracy, often completing passes beyond 25-30 yards downfield.
  • Michigan football quarterbacks and their strategies.26:22
    • Phil Callihan notes that Mike Sain is the X factor in the Michigan defense, with his sneaky speed and intelligent playmaking ability.
    • Clint Derringer compares JJ McCarthy to Penix, highlighting the difference in aggression and experience between the two quarterbacks.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Michigan’s offensive strategy, highlighting their NFL-style run game and passing game built for big plays.
    • Jim Harbaugh is prepared to dust off 2021 game film against Washington, showing he’s comfortable handing off 20-30 times in a half if it’s working.
  • Michigan football’s run-heavy strategy vs. Washington.31:33
    • Jim Harbaugh highlights the importance of running the ball, citing George Patton’s success on the ground.
    • Clint Derringer believes Michigan will focus on running between the tackles to shorten the game and limit possessions, potentially limiting Washington’s offensive opportunities.
    • Clint Derringer agrees with Percival that Michigan’s commitment to running the ball will be tested by Washington’s ability to get up early and make the game shorter.
    • Derringer believes that while shortening the game favors the underdog, Michigan’s defense must continue to make plays to slow down Washington’s explosive offense.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Michigan’s offensive strategy, highlighting their reliance on the run game to create explosive plays and wear down defenses.
    • Derringer notes that while Blake Corum hasn’t had as many long runs as in previous seasons, he’s still finding ways to break tackles and score touchdowns, often from 8-15 yards out.
  • Michigan Wolverines football strategy and analysis.39:36
    • Phil Callihan observes that JJ McCarthy’s shaky starts are a pattern, and Washington could try to exploit this by encouraging him to throw underneath and potentially get an interception.
    • Jim Harbaugh emphasizes the importance of running the ball effectively against Michigan’s defense, even if it means sacrificing some passing yards.
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss the impact of rule changes on college football, specifically the reduction of plays and possessions per game due to the clock no longer stopping on first downs.
    • Clint Derringer and Andrew discuss the importance of special teams and the potential for opponents to send everyone on every kick to try to make something happen.
  • College football playoffs and predictions.44:42
    • Percival is in disbelief that Michigan and Washington are in the college Football semi-finals, despite being an underdog in each game.
    • Percival is excited about the potential for an upset, citing the small point spread and history of underdog teams winning national championships.
    • Percival believes Michigan is overrated and predicts a Washington victory with a score of 31-28.
    • Percival acknowledges the challenges of playoff expansion and its impact on teams like Washington and Michigan.
  • Michigan football’s chances against Ohio State with analysis and predictions.51:03
    • Clint Derringer highlights the significance of the expansion model and its impact on the game, particularly the excitement of seeing southern powers play in northern games.
    • Derringer analyzes the similarities between Michigan’s recent games against Ohio State and the upcoming game, with a focus on the offensive line’s improved performance.
    • Clint Derringer expects Michigan to win the game by a score of 31-24, with their defense being the key to their success.
    • Andrew Percival is on Twitter at @PDAWG206, where he shares his research and insights on Michigan football.
  • Teamwork and belief in a sports program.55:54
    • J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum discuss their team’s mentality and goals, with a focus on believing in themselves and overcoming obstacles.