By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. Rutgers

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan cashed in a few run game corrections, but JJ McCarthy had perhaps his worst game as a starter. The result was a 31-6 victory over BGSU that didn’t serve to calm the discomfort of our fan base.

NEXT UP: vs. Rutgers: SP+ 64th, 2.1

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 28.6, Michigan Win Probability 95%

The Big Ten season brings a marginal increase in opponent strength according to SP+. The model still favors the Wolverines by four touchdowns against the Scarlet Knights.

Michigan Offense (16th) vs. Rutgers Defense (44th)

This matchup will likely play the biggest role in the final outcome of the game. Greg Schiano has continued to improve on defense in each season since his return to Pascataway. The defensive line creates a lot of motion and disruption for the blocking scheme of the offensive line. This will be a legitimate test for Sherrone Moore’s group to show that they have ironed out the last of the wrinkles we’ve seen so far in the 2023 run game.

I expect a bounce-back performance from JJ McCarthy through the air after the night-game wakeup call last week. Really, the primary danger for Michigan in terms of an upset would be another sloppy performance riddled with turnovers. I don’t want the Wolverines to be completely risk averse, but they should prioritize executing the base offensive plays well.

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Rutgers Offense (78th)

Again this week, we’ll see Michigan’s defensive line looking to exploit a giant mismatch, this time versus the Rutgers offensive line. The Scarlet Knights are led by mobile quarterback Gavin Wimsatt, and underrated running back Kyle Monangai. While I expect to see 2 or 3 Wolverines in the backfield on nearly every snap, Rutgers has shown the ability to exploit a defense using designed QB runs. The Scarlet Knights will be looking for a Denard-like performance from Wimsatt to try and shock Michigan.

When Rutgers does try to pass, they will likely settle for short dump off passes within 6 or 7 yards of the line of scrimmage. The tight ends and running backs have nearly as many targets as the wide receivers from game-to-game. The key will be fundamental tackling. Linebackers, safeties, and corners must be sure tacklers to keep short passes and QB run plays from becoming explosive plays.

PREDICTION: Michigan gains two intangible bonuses for Week 4: Jim Harbaugh returns to the sideline after completing his three-game suspension & the kickoff returns to the traditional noon window. I expect to see a game plan that is much more cleanly executed now that the coaching staff will all be back to their normally assigned roles. Also, we should see adjustments made more quickly. If the Wolverines get off to a fast start in all three phases, they could potentially bury Rutgers.

However, that has not been the case recently in these games against the Knights. Greg Schiano will stick to a conservative, defense & field-position strategy to try and keep the game close. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca will also be looking for his preferred matchup to isolate Wimsatt. This game could go by quickly with the new clock rules. And, when we look up at the new scoreboards, we might be wondering how Rutgers managed to hang around.
Michigan 27 Rutgers 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 31 Rutgers 16)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/20/23, 3-0

SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 28.2
- SP+ Offense: 16th (↓2), 37.8
- SP+ Defense: 2nd (↑1), 9.9
- SP+ Special Teams: 5th (↑35), 0.3
AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1481
Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1514
CFP Rank: N/A

September 17, 2023September 18, 2023

Michigan Football Podcast — The No Star Defense – Game 3 Michigan 31 Bowling Green 6

Phil and Clint discuss Michigan’s 31-6 victory over Bowling Green with J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum, and Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Highlights

2023_12_PhilClintPodcast 03 UM 31 BG 6

Summary

Michigan football’s trust-based defense and leadership.0:00
- Trust and teamwork are key to Michigan’s successful defense.
Michigan football’s performance in a close game.1:12
- Clint Derringer and Jim Harbaugh discuss Michigan’s win over Bowling Green, focusing on their performance in the game and their expectations for the season.
Michigan Wolverines’ game performance with a focus on QB JJ McCarthy’s struggles.2:46
- Michigan football struggles in non-conference game, despite strong running game performance.
- Clint Derringer highlights JJ McCarthy’s poor performance, including 3 interceptions and a touchdown, despite positive aspects of the game such as the running game and offensive line play.
- Derringer notes that the game was short and difficult to get into rhythm, with Bowling Green starting their second and third string quarterbacks, and the Wolverines struggling to execute and make plays.
JJ McCarthy’s performance in a college football game.7:46
- JJ McCarthy takes responsibility for interceptions, vows to learn from mistakes.
- Phil Callihan highlights JJ McCarthy’s NFL-caliber throws, but also notes the risk of overestimating his abilities.
Michigan football’s performance and coaching staff changes.12:20
- Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss JJ McCarthy’s performance, with a focus on the importance of ball control and the likelihood of regressing to the mean.
- Clint Derringer suggests that the absence of Jim Harbaugh and the resulting chaos on the coaching staff have had an impact on Michigan’s performance, despite the team’s 3-0 record.
- Derringer believes that the non-standard routines and communications within the coaching staff are affecting the team’s performance, and he looks forward to moving past this chapter of the season.
Michigan Wolverines’ football game with analysis of player performance.17:15
- Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan analyze Michigan football’s victory, focusing on Blake Corum’s performance and potential rust from injury.
- Phil Callihan praises the atmosphere of the game, particularly the nighttime effects, which he found impressive.
- Callihan notes that while the game was not as good as expected, the team’s performance had a “cruddy feeling” despite the 31-6 victory.
- Callihan and Derringer analyze defense’s performance in game, highlighting interception in end zone.
Michigan football team’s defense in a game.24:34
- Michigan’s defense turns the tide with turnovers and stops, leading to a comeback victory.
- Clint Derringer highlights dominant defense, poor third-down performance in Michigan win.
Michigan Wolverines football team’s performance and upcoming challenges.28:10
- Phil Callihan agrees with Coach Harbaugh that it’s better to feel bad after a win than after a loss, and notes that the defense is “lights out” but will be challenged by better teams.
- Callihan expresses frustration with the close score of 7-6 against Bowling Green, hoping for a more convincing win, and doubts Coach Harbaugh’s satisfaction with the result.
- Concern about secondary health, but backup players have been positive.
- Clint Derringer praises punter Tyler Morris for sure-handed fielding despite difficult bounces.

September 17, 2023September 17, 2023

Michigan 31 Bowling Green 6 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-6, Michigan by 25 over BGSU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 45.1 (-20.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-8)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Bowling Green

Do you want the good news first, or the bad news? For the third consecutive week, Michigan had one phase of the offense humming, but struggled in the other. JJ McCarthy threw 3 interceptions, all of them on scoring opportunities inside Bowling Green’s 40-yard line. In addition to the turnovers, he also missed a few open receivers with his eyes, and a couple with his arm. While the passing attack struggled, Michigan returned to sky-high success rate on the ground (68%). Blake Corum kicked the game off with a 54-yard scamper, and Donovan Edwards also averaged 5.6 yards per carry for the game.

The defense was physically dominant again for the third consecutive week. On a night that Michigan turned the ball over four times, the shut out potential was lost early. However, the pass rush and ball-hawking secondary combined to create three turnovers to help balance the scales. One particular highlight was Mason Graham pressuring the Falcons’ quarterback on a screen pass that was picked off by tackle Kris Jenkins. Jenkins had his eyes on the end zone, but was dragged down just short. Corum pounded the ball in for Michigan’s third touchdown.

Special teams was uncharacteristically sloppy as well. The most costly event was a fumbled pooch kick by Max Bredeson after Bowling Green’s first field goal. That quick change resulted in the second score allowed by the defensive unit, but they would not allow any more. On the positive side of the ledger, James Turner looks like he’s settled in as the place kicker. Also, both Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris were sure-handed while fielding bouncing punts.

This was a text book example of an ugly win. The Wolverines were able to win comfortably based on their defensive line dominance and creating explosive offensive plays. This might be the ugliest of the three games we’ve seen in 2023, but the concern is that we still haven’t seen a complete performance from Michigan. The next test from Rutgers will force the Wolverines to put all the pieces together. The Scarlet Knights come to Ann Arbor next week with a 3-0 record. Onward!

September 17, 2023September 17, 2023