Category: Football

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By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Bowling Green

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines narrowly missed a shut out for the second consecutive week.  Michigan cruised to a 35-7 victory behind pinpoint accuracy from JJ McCarthy, and physical dominance by the defensive line. 

NEXT UP: vs. Bowling Green: SP+ 113th, -15.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 45.1, Michigan Win Probability 100%

Rinse and repeat for the non-conference schedule.  The SP+ model again picks the Wolverines by over 40 points, and predicts the opponent to stay under a full touchdown score.  This week the model produced a 49-4 prediction.

Michigan Offense (14th) vs. BGSU Defense (121st) 

The Wolverines have two main objectives offensively in Week 3: maintain the passing game momentum & smooth out the run game execution and timing.  JJ McCarthy only has 7 incompletions through two games, compared to 5 touchdown connections with Roman Wilson.  The key run game metrics for this week will be related to explosiveness.  If we see a significant uptick on yards per play and in EPA per play, we can infer the offensive line has cleaned up assignments, the wide receivers are engaging better on the perimeter, and the running backs are in sync.

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. BGSU Offense (94th)

This matchup pits one of Michigan’s greatest strengths, the defensive line, directly against one of Bowling Green’s greatest weaknesses, their offensive line.  That imbalance in the trenches might make it difficult to evaluate other individual players, or the back seven position groups.  We can watch out for continued improvement from the edge players.  I would love to see Braden McGregor, Josiah Stewart, Derrick Moore, & Jaylen Harrell continue to fill the stat sheet with TFLs and sacks.  Ideally, those plays would also come after beating the block of an offensive lineman.  Last week, a handful of TFLS were the direct result of Wolverines who were totally unblocked.

PREDICTION: Sherrone Moore gets his turn to add Head Coach duties to his plate this week.  While I am happy for Coach Moore to showcase his talent, I am very much looking forward to putting the Harbaugh suspension behind us and settling into normal coaching staff roles.  Jesse Minter’s defense has flirted with a shutout in both of Michigan’s first two games.  We might be trying to protect a goose egg in this one as well.

BGSU drew praise from Jim Harbaugh this week related to their passing concepts.  However, I think they will rely much more on their running game in order to keep the clock churning.  The Falcons are a team who utilizes hurry up and temp the least.  It makes sense for them to try and reduce the number of drives and plays in order to keep this game close.   
Michigan 36 BGSU 3 (PRESEASON Michigan 48 BGSU 7)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/13/23, 2-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 27.7
    • SP+ Offense: 14th (↓3), 38.2
    • SP+ Defense: 3rd (same), 10.6
    • SP+ Special Teams: 40th (↑4), 0.1
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1458
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1533
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Michigan 35 UNLV 7 – Game 2 Recap

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 35-7, Michigan by 28 over UNLV
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 40.2 (-12.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. UNLV

JJ McCarthy was able to match his Week 1 performance going 22-25 through the air for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eventually, the Wolverines nudged their rushing total up to 179 yards, but there is still a feel that they have another gear or maybe two gears they haven’t hit yet in 2023. We did see the Wolverines add the quarterback to the running attack. McCarthy had a 17 yard run on a keeper to set up a Blake Corum touchdown.

The most entertainment value in the 2nd half came from another shutout watch for Jesse Minter’s defense. Michigan set up shop in the UNLV backfield and finished with 10 tackles for loss. Perhaps the most valuable part of the game was adding snaps and reps for the players down the depth chart. The Wolverines were again without Rod Moore and Will Johnson for most of this game as a precaution. Today Quinten Johnson made some impact from the safety position, especially as a blitzer.

James Turner didn’t get any field goal opportunities, but was a perfect 5-for-5 on extra points. In the return game, Semaj Morgan and Kalel Mullings both had 20+ yard kick returns, and we saw a flash of explosiveness from Tyler Morris on punt return. Morris made his first appearance this week after sitting out the opener with a minor injury, and also made a great 3rd down catch in the first half.

Hard to find a whole lot to nit pick in Michigan’s second consecutive solid performance. The defense might be more dominant than 2022 if the pass rush continues to ascend for the defensive line. JJ McCarthy is playing nearly perfectly, albeit versus two lackluster defensive units. Once Michigan settles on their offensive line starters, and Blake Corum knocks the rest of the recovery rust off, the Wolverines seem primed to unleash their full potential in the Big Ten season. Onward!