Michigan 34 Washington 13 – Game 15 CFP Final Recap

NATIONAL CHAMPIONS!

GAME 15 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 34-13, Michigan by 21 over Washington
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.3 (+8.7)
CD Projection: Michigan by 7 (+14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 15 CFP FINAL RECAP vs. Washington

With the National Championship on the line, the Michigan offense stayed true to their identity and mashed the Washington Huskies on the ground for 303 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns.  The Wolverines rocketed out of the gate with two long touchdown runs from Donovan Edwards in the first quarter, one that covered 41 yards and the other from 46 yards out.  When James Turner added a field goal on Michigan’s third drive to go up 17-3 early in the second quarter, fans felt this could turn into a blowout.

But, that story did not come to be.  Over the next seven drives in the second and third quarters, the Wolverines managed just one additional field goal on a short field drive, set up by the defense.  JJ McCarthy never quite got into rhythm, and finished 10-18 for 140 yards passing and no touchdowns.  But, McCarthy was the spark that ignited the finishing flurry for Michigan.  His 22-yard scramble from near his own goal line allowed the Wolverines to flip the field position.  On their second possession of the fourth quarter, up by just seven points, JJ threw a strike to Coleston Loveland over the middle for a 41 yard backbreaker.  Two plays later, Blake Corum juked his way into the endzone for a 12-yard touchdown.  That 14-point lead felt insurmountable with just seven minutes remaining, and it was fitting for Corum to cap it off as the heartbeat of this offensive unit. 

The CFP Final game narrative fits perfectly atop the 2023 season, because the star of the show was the Michigan defense.  In the premier strength-on-strength matchup for all the marbles versus Kalen DeBoer,  Ryan Grubb, and an NFL-level offensive unit for the Huskies, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter reigned supreme.  Heisman runner-up Michael Penix was battered by the time the clock hit zero.  He finished 27-51 for 255 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions.  This is on the heels of a 430-yard, two touchdown performance the week before in the semifinals.

The defensive line proved the depth development strategy employed by Michigan in 2023 was indeed brilliant.  All seven rotational defensive lineman created pressure on Penix.  Mason Graham finished as the statistical leader with three tackles, and Kenneth Grant added a sack.  That pressure, paired with a physical game plan from the Michigan defensive backs, yielded two interceptions at critical moments.  The first interception by Will Johnson came on the opening possession of the second half and created the short field I mentioned before.  The second interception was the coronation of the National Championship season: an 81-yard celebratory return by Mike Sainristil who, like Corum, embodied the perfect player to put an exclamation point on this perfect season.

The special teams unit eliminated the huge mistakes from the prior week in the Rose Bowl.  Jay Harbaugh made a brilliant adjustment to the Washington punter’s low, line-drive style by utilizing two returners: one shallow and one deep.  James Turner was very near the upright on a short field goal, and actually hit the upright on an extra point, but made all his kicks.  And, punter Tommy Doman bounced back the best.  His kicks carried an average of 47.6 yards, and a net of 43.6.

This team is the greatest team in the land, and cannot be disputed.  They are forever National Champions.  However, the word I will always associate with this team is unflappable.  No force exists within a football stadium that could shake the 2023 Michigan Wolverines.  That proved true again for the fifteenth time on Monday, January 8th, 2024.  In my eyes, by realizing their year-long mission to win the title by defeating all comers, this is the greatest Michigan Football team in the 144-year history of the program.  Don’t agree with such a lofty statement?  Somehow they’ll show up and prove it again.  Bet!

2023 SEASON RECAP

It felt shortsighted to just do a game recap after the season the Michigan Wolverines just completed.  So, I want to layout briefly how I experienced this 2023 season, through a series of eight phases:

  1. Expectations

When Blake Corum, Zak Zinter, and the other upperclassmen decided to return for another season back in January of 2023, the championship foundation was preserved.  However, the stakes were raised immediately when Blake Corum called his shot in front of a crowd at Crisler Arena, stating that this team would win a National Title and go down in history.  There was no turning back, the boats had been burned. 

  1. Happy Mission 

Spring and summer were traditional from a program and media standpoint.  There were a few questions about starting battles at offensive tackle and at the second cornerback spot, but Jim Harbaugh reiterated that his guys were embarking on a happy mission. 

  1. Harbaugh Suspension #1 

A negotiated settlement with the NCAA related to 2020 dead period violations fell through at the eleventh hour.  Still, the Michigan administration self-imposed a three-game suspension on Jim Harbaugh and four different assistants received an opportunity to add head coach responsibilities on game day.  Developing that depth would prove to be valuable.

  1. Big Ten Dominance

When Jim Harbaugh returned and the B1G Ten season started, the Wolverines showed they had at least another gear that they had not shown through the first four games.  Back-to-back road blowouts over Nebraska and Minnesota silenced a handful of doubters who thought Michigan looked unimpressive early in the season. 

  1. Connor Stalions & Media Chaos 

A media firestorm exploded when news leaked regarding support staffer Connor Stalions leading an in-person scouting operation that skirted various NCAA regulations.  The news was timed and targeted to maximize the amplitude of the chaos, and triggered a chorus of complaints from B1G Ten coaches and administrators to new conference commissioner Tony Petitti.

  1. Harbaugh Suspension #2 

Tony Petitti acquiesced to the complaints and determined he would suspend Jim Harbaugh midseason for three more games.  Petitti also maximized the potential damage for targeting the three toughest games on the schedule, including The Game versus Ohio State.  The final salt in the wound was the timing & delivery of the announcement.   The commissioner waited until the team was in flight en route to the Penn State road game, and the Michigan contingent found out via social media.

  1. #Bet (Savage Warrior), 

In response to a failed appeal for injunction in a Washtenaw County court, the administration, the team, and the fan base was incensed with the B1G Ten conference.  Many hot takes were created and fired into the media environment, but the Michigan community rallied around a viral tweet sent by the players and echoed by even university president Santa Ono: Bet.  The one-word rallying cry was a call to fight by saying less and doing more.  The Wolverines were determined to let their actions speak.  The happy mission had transformed into one taken on by savage warriors.

  1. Confirmation & Coronation

Through all the distraction, and under the guidance of Sherrone Moore as interim head coach, the Michigan Wolverines executed a variety of game plans to continue their victorious march.  Key injuries on both sides of the ball dictated how Michigan could attack the best defenses on their schedule.  But, they made the key plays against Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa, Alabama, and Washington.  Over this stretch of games, the game narratives in my mind slowly shifted.  It started from a place of fear that this team’s opportunity could be squandered in an epic “What If…” season.  That narrative morphed to a confirmation that this team was good enough and tough enough that none of the outside forces mattered.  None of the on-field foes mattered.  The Rose Bowl semifinal and CFP final games were fitting coronations for the sport’s new kings. 

THANK YOU

I’ll conclude with a thank you to Phil Callihan for the opportunity to contribute to the site, and for his support and flexibility that allowed me to experience this magical ride from the press box with him and his family, from home with my family, and through it all with our Michigan family.  Also, thank you for reading, listening, following, and talking to us about this team.  

It’s Great…to be…a Michigan Wolverine…because the ultimate team–the greatest Michigan team of all of all time!–finished their business and brought home the ultimate prize to Ann Arbor.

By the Numbers: Game 15 CFP Final vs. Washington

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines came back to force overtime on the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Then Blake Corum and the Michigan defense put the finishing touches on an epic 27-20 victory in the Rose Bowl to qualify for the CFP National Championship game.

NEXT UP: vs. Washington: SP+ 12th, 18.8

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.2, Michigan Win Probability 76%

The post-bowl SP+ rankings show why Bill Connelly is constantly tweaking the algorithm, especially as college football changes over time.  Michigan slid to #2 overall in the rankings because Georgia won by 60 over Florida State.  There is currently no way for the model to adjust for significant injuries or opt-outs, so the dozen or so missing players for the Noles were not accounted for. 

Michigan Offense (12th) vs. Washington Defense (44th) 

A huge advantage for Michigan exists when they have possession against the Huskies’ defense.  It is not a bad defense, especially in high leverage moments.  However, the Wolverines played eight opponents with defensive units ranked higher than Washington’s.  I expect Sherrone Moore to do what he’s done best all season.  Michigan will look for run-pass balance early on, but will rely on Blake Corum and the running game to wear down the Huskies and keep Michael Penix Jr. on the Washington sideline.

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Washington Offense (4th)

Both fan bases point to this strength-on-strength match up and warn the other side that they haven’t seen a unit like this in 2023.  While it’s true given the context of this season, I feel most comfortable with Michigan’s defense preparing for a Heisman contender at quarterback with All American wide receivers.  That’s because the entire defensive philosophy and scheme was designed to contain CJ Stroud, and the Ohio State wide receiver room.  Penix could very likely throw for over 300 yards again on Monday night.  In 2021, Stroud threw for 394 yards and two touchdowns himself.  The key will be whether Michigan can make key plays inside their own 40 yard line to force field goal attempts, or come up with 4th down stops.  

PREDICTION: The culmination of this amazing 2023 season has finally arrived.  The story started to build 12 full months ago when upperclassmen like Blake Corum, Michael Barrett, and Zak Zinter were considering their returns to Ann Arbor.  Immediately, the bar was set as high as possible when Corum declared to Crisler Arena in February that this team would win a National Championship.  Then, during the early season the Wolverines started rolling comfortably in each game.  The star players rarely played much in the second half of games, allowing depth players to get a significant number of snaps on both sides of the ball.  But then the tougher part of the schedule arrived, and something unexpected happened: the depth guys were still getting snaps at big moments of the big games!  

After reading, listening, talking (check out the preview podcast), and processing a lot of data about how this game could go, I think Michigan’s greatest edge might be their depth.  Wide receiver Tyler Morris just scored his first career touchdown to take the lead over Alabama in the Rose Bowl.  Safeties Quentin Johnson & Keon Sabb were both forced into duty by an untimely injury during the fourth quarter, and they both made huge plays late.  The Wolverines harassed Jalen Milroe all night while still rotating at least seven defensive linemen consistently (prayers up for Rayshaun Benny).  Michigan created game plans and managed their roster for an entire season to ensure they could be as close to full strength as possible in the College Football Playoff.  Now it’s time to go play the game, and earn not only the National Title, but the title of Greatest Michigan Team of All Time. 
Michigan 31 Washington 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 01/02/24, 14-0

  • SP+ Overall: 2nd (↓1), 31.0
    • SP+ Offense: 12th (↓2), 36.5
    • SP+ Defense: 1st (same), 7.3
    • SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓3), 1.8
  • AP Poll: 1st (same)
  • Coaches’ Poll: 1st (same)
  • CFP Rank: 1st (same)

Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Chasing Perfection – National Championship Preview

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer the National Championship game versus Washington with special guest Andrew Percival @PDawg206 also RB Blake Corum, QB J.J. McCarthy, and Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Archive

Podcast Summary

  • Michigan football’s chances against Washington based on SP plus ratings.0:00
    • Offensive players emphasize teamwork and balance in attacking opponents.
    • Clint Derringer expects a strength-on-strength battle between Michigan’s defense and Washington’s offense.
    • Michigan offensive game plan was better than initially thought, despite sputtering at times.
  • Michigan’s strength in computer rankings.6:27
    • Percival highlights Michigan’s exceptional performance in advanced metrics, ranking them #1 in the country per their model.
    • The model favors Michigan over Alabama, despite Michigan not playing a non-conference P5 opponent, as the Big Ten is ranked #4 in the country.
  • Washington Huskies’ football team’s journey and performance.9:27
    • Phil Callihan reflects on Michigan Wolverines’ three-year journey, including their dramatic victory over Alabama and the team’s resilience despite setbacks.
    • Andrew Lange characterizes the team’s ride this season as “so much fun,” highlighting their strong start, mid-season ups and downs, and notable wins.
    • Percival highlights Washington’s close games against Oregon and Utah, describing them as “torturous nerve-racking” experiences.
    • Percival recounts Washington’s dramatic victory over Washington State, including a fourth-down conversion and a 25-yard touchdown reception.
    • Percival highlights Washington’s exceptional performance in close games, including a 3-point win over Oregon and a 4-point win over Texas as an underdog.
    • Phil Callihan expresses disappointment that Michigan and Washington won’t face off in the Rose Bowl, but is content with the win over Alabama.
  • Michigan football’s defense and their matchup against Washington’s Heisman-contending quarterback, Michael Penix.17:36
    • Michigan’s defense has remained consistent under different coordinators, with a focus on parallel strategies and successful game planning.
    • Clint Derringer sees Michael Penix as a transformed quarterback who went from good to great after developing his pocket passing skills, and now has the potential to lead Washington to victory against Michigan.
    • Phil Callihan agrees, noting that Penix’s game has evolved significantly since his Indiana days, and he now has the Heisman Trophy credentials to back it up.
  • Quarterback Penix’s accuracy and power.23:23
    • Penix has an “electric arm” with accuracy and power, demonstrated by his deep balls and ability to throw at a lower trajectory.
    • Penix’s progressions are quick, and he can throw with both power and accuracy, often completing passes beyond 25-30 yards downfield.
  • Michigan football quarterbacks and their strategies.26:22
    • Phil Callihan notes that Mike Sain is the X factor in the Michigan defense, with his sneaky speed and intelligent playmaking ability.
    • Clint Derringer compares JJ McCarthy to Penix, highlighting the difference in aggression and experience between the two quarterbacks.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Michigan’s offensive strategy, highlighting their NFL-style run game and passing game built for big plays.
    • Jim Harbaugh is prepared to dust off 2021 game film against Washington, showing he’s comfortable handing off 20-30 times in a half if it’s working.
  • Michigan football’s run-heavy strategy vs. Washington.31:33
    • Jim Harbaugh highlights the importance of running the ball, citing George Patton’s success on the ground.
    • Clint Derringer believes Michigan will focus on running between the tackles to shorten the game and limit possessions, potentially limiting Washington’s offensive opportunities.
    • Clint Derringer agrees with Percival that Michigan’s commitment to running the ball will be tested by Washington’s ability to get up early and make the game shorter.
    • Derringer believes that while shortening the game favors the underdog, Michigan’s defense must continue to make plays to slow down Washington’s explosive offense.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Michigan’s offensive strategy, highlighting their reliance on the run game to create explosive plays and wear down defenses.
    • Derringer notes that while Blake Corum hasn’t had as many long runs as in previous seasons, he’s still finding ways to break tackles and score touchdowns, often from 8-15 yards out.
  • Michigan Wolverines football strategy and analysis.39:36
    • Phil Callihan observes that JJ McCarthy’s shaky starts are a pattern, and Washington could try to exploit this by encouraging him to throw underneath and potentially get an interception.
    • Jim Harbaugh emphasizes the importance of running the ball effectively against Michigan’s defense, even if it means sacrificing some passing yards.
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss the impact of rule changes on college football, specifically the reduction of plays and possessions per game due to the clock no longer stopping on first downs.
    • Clint Derringer and Andrew discuss the importance of special teams and the potential for opponents to send everyone on every kick to try to make something happen.
  • College football playoffs and predictions.44:42
    • Percival is in disbelief that Michigan and Washington are in the college Football semi-finals, despite being an underdog in each game.
    • Percival is excited about the potential for an upset, citing the small point spread and history of underdog teams winning national championships.
    • Percival believes Michigan is overrated and predicts a Washington victory with a score of 31-28.
    • Percival acknowledges the challenges of playoff expansion and its impact on teams like Washington and Michigan.
  • Michigan football’s chances against Ohio State with analysis and predictions.51:03
    • Clint Derringer highlights the significance of the expansion model and its impact on the game, particularly the excitement of seeing southern powers play in northern games.
    • Derringer analyzes the similarities between Michigan’s recent games against Ohio State and the upcoming game, with a focus on the offensive line’s improved performance.
    • Clint Derringer expects Michigan to win the game by a score of 31-24, with their defense being the key to their success.
    • Andrew Percival is on Twitter at @PDAWG206, where he shares his research and insights on Michigan football.
  • Teamwork and belief in a sports program.55:54
    • J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum discuss their team’s mentality and goals, with a focus on believing in themselves and overcoming obstacles.