Category: Football

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By the Numbers: Game 12 vs. Ohio State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan was able to survive and advance in the annual pre-OSU trap game.  The Wolverines held on to beat the Maryland Terrapins 31-24 after shifting into cruise control far too early.

NEXT UP: vs. Ohio State: SP+ 3rd, 27.8

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 6.1, Michigan Win Probability 64%

Michigan stayed firm atop the SP+ rankings where they’ve been going back to Week 5.  But, the Wolverines regressed back to the pack during the Jim Harbaugh suspension.  Ohio State remains 3rd overall as well.  Surprisingly, the 1st ranked defense leads the Buckeyes SP+ rating strength, not the 19th ranked offense.

Michigan Offense (6th) vs. Ohio State Defense (1st) 

This matchup embodies the strength-on-strength clash in this rivalry game.  Ohio State clamped down on big plays in 2023 after explosives proved to be the achilles heel for coordinator Jim Knowles in 2022.  I expect the Buckeyes to deploy a more structurally sound defensive approach in The Game this year.  Keeping the Michigan ground attack under wraps will still be top priority, but I don’t think Ohio State believes they need to commit 9 or 10 players to the line of scrimmage to accomplish that.  Michigan fans can expect a rushing attack that looks much more like 2021 (5-6 yards a pop) than the 2022 explosion.

In my eyes, Saturday’s two most critical performances take place up front where Ladarius Henderson expects to return at left tackle, and Karsen Barnhart looks to bounce back in pass protection at right tackle.  Henderson & Barnhart will be the point of attack blockers on Michigan runs.  Most importantly, they must keep JJ McCarthy clean against JT Tuimoloau and the Buckeyes’ pass rush.  Ideally, JJ’s health is no longer a concern and we’ll see him escape the pocket to create down field opportunities.  At the minimum, the Michigan running backs should serve as quick outlet valves if Ohio State is bringing pressure.  

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Ohio State Offense (19th)

For the third consecutive year, the Wolverines’ defense will attempt to execute a game plan meant to minimize explosive pass plays.  In 2021 & 2022, impacting quarterback CJ Stroud posed the primary challenge.  Now the Buckeyes are led by Kyle McCord.  McCord is a good passer, but not on the same level as Stroud.  I expect Michigan to utilize extra safeties over the top of Heisman Trophy candidate Marvin Harrison Jr., while relying on the front four plus LB Mike Barrett to generate pressure.  If the Wolverines successfully contain Harrison with extra defenders, the wild card will be Mike Sainristil and Josh Wallace against #2 receiver Emeka Egbuka.

Verbally, this season represents a new commitment to running the ball for Ohio State.  TreVeyon Henderson and Chip Trayanum combine into a formidable challenge.  However, the Buckeyes’ offensive line still falters when trying to get to their second level blocks.  And, when Ohio State faces a high leverage situation, Ryan Day remains highly likely to turn away from his running backs and favor his wide receivers.  Jesse Minter will keep his coverage guys back, daring Ryan Day to run the ball consistently and repeatedly.  The most critical plays in the game will be 3rd down plays with 2-4 yards to go for Ohio State.  The Buckeye coaching staff will tell you that they want to run the ball in those spots, but Minter and the rest of the Wolverine faithful all know these are the times to tighten up outside in coverage.

PREDICTION: The SP+ model would favor Michigan over Ohio State by 3.6 points on a neutral field, and Bill Connely’s system adds 2.5 points for home field advantage, resulting in a 6.1 point tilt toward the Wolverines.  My preseason pick was Michigan by 6, and I am going to keep that same margin.  The teams will trade blows back-and-forth for the first 50-75% of the game.  Marvin Harrison Jr. and Blake Corum will each score early touchdowns.  But, this game boils down to which players step up in the fourth quarter once each team adjusts to the opponent’s game plan.  I think the Michigan defense will seal it late by pressuring McCord into a key mistake.
Michigan 34 Ohio State 28 (PRESEASON Michigan 39 Ohio State 33)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 11/21/23, 11-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 31.4
    • SP+ Offense: 6th (↑1), 38.5
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↓1), 9.0
    • SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓1), 1.9
  • AP Poll: 3rd (↓1), 1440
  • Coaches’ Poll: 3rd (↓1), 1458
  • CFP Rank: 3rd (same)
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THE GAME – Michigan vs Ohio State Football – Looking Back – 1991

Looking Back is a Special Feature by Jeff Cummins Highlighting Key Rivalry Games

The third installmenf of this year’s series looking back at the football rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State takes us back to 1991. By this time, Bo Schembechler had retired, turning the reins over to trusted lieutenant Gary Moeller. In one of his final seasons, Schembechler was asked who would replace some of the tremendous receivers he had, and he mentioned the name Desmond Howard.

In the late 1980s, high school football recruiting had yet to become an obsession, and Howard wasn’t a household name. His performance against Ohio State crushed the spirit of the Buckeyes, and made him an icon in college football lore.

Any drama in this game ended after the opening kickoff. Michigan won, 31-3, punctuated by Desmond Howard’s 93-yard punt return for a touchdown, ending with Howard’s famous “Heisman Pose.” Keith Jackson bellowed “Hello Heisman!” and Howard became a legend for the ages.

In hindsight, the 1991 team never received the proper amount of adulation from Michigan fans. The Wolverines absolutely dominated the Buckeyes. They beat Notre Dame in dramatic fashion, courtesy of an amazing touchdown by Howard. They beat Michigan State comfortably. Howard was joined by linebacker Erick Anderson and linemen Greg Skrepenak and Matt Elliott on the All-America team. Maybe the most important point of all, the Wolverines went undefeated in the Big Ten, winning all eight conference games and capturing the Big Ten championship. It’s fair to say a season of that magnitude would satisfy many Michigan supporters.

Thanks to ABC Sports, YouTube, and YouTube poster RXwolverine for the broadcast of this game. I own nothing and we do not profit off this blog post, which is published strictly for the enjoyment of readers.

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Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Battle Tested – Game 11 Michigan 31 Maryland 24

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer discuss Michigan’s 31-24 victory over Maryland with Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Summary

  • Michigan’s game strategy before Ohio State.0:00
    • Michigan Wolverines prepare for Ohio State game with focus and determination.
    • Michigan’s conservative game planning and injury scares led to a struggle against Illinois.
  • Michigan Wolverines football game with analysis of quarterback JJ McCarthy’s performance.3:24
    • Phil Callihan notes that Michigan’s offense started strong but struggled in the third quarter, while Clint Derringer highlights JJ McCarthy’s subpar performance, including a goal line interception before halftime.
    • Clint Derringer argues that Jim Harbaugh’s absence and Sharon’s increased coaching duties have impacted offensive play calling and adaptability.
    • Injuries to key players like Roman Wilson, JJ McCarthy, Mike Barrett, and Chris Partridge have further hindered Michigan’s performance on both offense and defense.
    • Phil Callihan observes that JJ McCarthy’s performance was affected by Jim Harbaugh’s absence, leading to ill-advised passes and a loss of rhythm.
    • Callihan notes that McCarthy’s tendency to force passes in pressure situations was a concern, particularly in the third quarter against Penn State.
  • Michigan football’s offensive struggles and coaching challenges.11:54
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Michigan’s offensive struggles in the second half, citing injuries and limited creativity in play calling.
    • Derringer highlights missed opportunities, including a deep post route that could have resulted in a touchdown, and the impact of injuries on the offensive line.
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss Sharon Moore’s coaching style and how it may change against Ohio State, with Moore potentially needing to “let go of Jim a little bit” and make his own decisions as the head coach.
    • Callihan notes that Moore’s decisions in the second half of recent games may not be the ones he would make, highlighting the challenge of stepping into a new role without Harbaugh’s presence.
  • Michigan football’s game strategy and player performance.17:55
    • Phil Callihan observes that Jim Harbaugh’s play calling may be holding back JJ McCarthy, particularly in the second half of games.
    • Clint Derringer agrees, noting that the context of each game affects the decision-making process, and JJ’s performance in the Maryland game was not indicative of what might be seen against Ohio State.
    • Clint Derringer highlights Michigan’s offensive line injuries and lack of rhythm, which hindered their ability to move the chains and create momentum.
    • Derringer also notes that the defense missed Mike Barrett’s experience in pass coverage and as a blitzer, leading to big plays by Maryland.
  • Michigan Wolverines football team’s performance in Maryland game.23:44
    • Mikey Sandersville makes two crucial interceptions for Michigan.
    • Clint Derringer praises Stainless steel for unlocking Michigan’s flexibility in personnel, while Phil Callihan expresses relief at expected returns of injured players.
    • Clint Derringer: Michigan is relatively healthy compared to previous years, with JJ McCarthy’s lower body injury being a concern but not a major setback.
    • Jim Harbaugh: Michigan is focused on preparations for the Ohio State game, with everything centered around this key matchup.
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THE GAME – Michigan vs Ohio State Football – Looking Back – 1978

Looking Back is a Special Feature by Jeff Cummins Highlighting Key Rivalry Games

The second installment of this year’s series looking back at the football rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State takes us back to 1978. Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat signed the Camp David Accords. Resorts International Casino opened in Atlantic City, N.J., the first casino to open on the East Coast.

In college football, Michigan was in the 10th season of coach Bo Schembechler’s tenure, and he had the Wolverines firing on all cylinders. Senior quarterback Rick Leach directed Michigan’s option offense, and opposing defenses had their hands full every game. If defenses concentrated too much on Leach, running backs Harlan Huckleby and Russell Davis were poised to strike, as were receiver Rodney Feaster and tight end Doug Marsh. On defense, junior linebacker Ron Simpkins spearheaded an attacking group of players who swarmed to the ball. In the simplest of terms, the 1978 Wolverines had very few weaknesses.

Ohio State started the season slowly, but the Buckeyes reeled off five consecutive victories heading into “The Game,” giving them plenty of momentum. Even more worrisome for the Wolverines, the game would be played at Ohio Stadium; always a daunting venue for Michigan.

There was even more reason for concern when a Bob Atha field goal gave Ohio State a 3-0 lead in the first quarter. The Wolverines maintained their composure and responded with a dominant drive that covered 70 yards in just four plays. Leach culiminated the scoring drive by connecting with Feaster for a 30-yard touchdown pass. After Ohio State took the lead, Michigan repsonded little more than a minute later. The Wolverines extended their lead in the third quarter when junior tailback Roosevelt Smith caught an 11-yard scoring pass to give Michigan a 14-3 lead. From that point, Michigan’s defense took control of the game. It was a rare when a Bo Schembechler-era Michigan defense surrendered a double-digit lead. This game marked the third consectuive contest vs Ohio State where the Buckeyes failed to score a touchdown vs Michigan, a point that wasn’t lost on Ohio State coach Woody Hayes, who greeted a reporter angrily when he was questioned about the streak after the game. Including the 1978 game, Michigan had surrendered only nine points to Ohio State over the last three meetings between the two rivals.

The win also marked Michigan’s third consecutive triumph in the series, and enabled Michigan to claim a share of the Big Ten championship.

Thanks to ABC Sports and YouTube poster Pizza Pizzichetti for the broadcast of this game. There’s an extra treat: The video was synced up with the audio from Bob Ufer’s radio broadcast!

1978 Michigan vs Ohio State with Bob Ufer

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THE GAME – Michigan vs Ohio State Football – Looking Back – 1956

Looking Back is a Special Feature by Jeff Cummins Highlighting Key Rivalry Games

The first installment of this year’s series looking back at the football rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State takes us back to 1956. The national economy was roaring, having reached $400 billion. Low unemployment combined with strong income disbursement led many young people to start families, and purchase homes and automobiles.

On the gridiron, Michigan had fallen to Ohio State the two previous seasons, sparking a determination in coach Bennie Oosterbaan and his players to reverse this disturbing trend. The 1956 Wolverines were led by tight end Ron Kramer, a consensus All-America selection who was later named to the College Football Hall of Fame. Jim Van Pelt played quarterback, and most of the running was done by senior halfback Terry Barr. As the two rivals took the field, each team wore its home uniform, an interesting custom maintained to this day by USC and UCLA.

Operating from the T-formation, the Wolverines wasted little time establishing their attack. Their backs pierced the Ohio State defensive line for small but certain gains, forcing the Buckeyes to concentrate on stopping the run. Van Pelt exploited this, connecting with Barr on a 21-yard swing pass to give Michigan a 7-0 lead. Michigan recovered an Ohio State fumble on the ensuing kickoff, but the Buckeye defense immediately stifled any threat. Undeterred, the Wolverines recovered another fumble on Ohio State’s next possession, and this time Michigan cashed in. Unable to find an open receiver, Barr sprinted for a 4-yard touchdown on an option play to give Michigan a 13-0 lead.

From that point, the Michigan defense took control of the game. The Wolverines tacked on another touchdown in the fourth quarter, but the Michigan defense was the real star. The Wolverines intercepted two passes, while allowing Ohio State to complete just one pass, essentially shutting down the Buckeye passing attack. Michigan won, 19-0, and finished the season with a record of seven wins and two losses. There was no bowl game, but a victory over the Buckeyes is always worth celebrating.

Thanks to YouTube poster College Football Historian for the film of this game. As always, we own nothing and this blog is published strictly for the enjoyment of readers.