Category: Football

Posted on

Michigan 27 Alabama 20 OT – Game 14 CFP SF Recap @ Rose Bowl

GAME 14 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-20 OT, Michigan by 7 over Alabama
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 8.4 (-1.4)
CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (+4)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 14 ROSE BOWL RECAP vs. Alabama

The Michigan offense was night and day different from first half to second half. The Wolverines held a 13-10 halftime lead after gifting the Tide an extra possession, but only ran nine plays in the third quarter. Of those nine Q3 plays, only one was successful, yielding an 11% success rate for the quarter. Just when negativity started to emerge throughout Wolverine nation, JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum rose to the occasion.

Down by seven with 4:41 to go, Michigan delivered a drive for the ages. The Wolverines marched eight plays, 75 yards, highlighted by a 4th & 2 pass from McCarthy to Corum to move into Alabama territory. McCarthy finished 17-27 for 221 yards and 3 TDs, while Corum scored twice. His rushing touchdown in overtime made him the program’s all-time rushing touchdown record holder, a well deserved honor for an iconic Michigan Man.

Defensively, coordinator Jesse Minter called a masterful game. The Wolverines piled up five sacks in the first half and finished with six total for the game. As the offense sputtered in the middle of the contest, the defense repeatedly had to come up with huge stops in high leverage moments. Linebacker Junior Colson battled through multiple injuries to lead the defense with ten tackles.

No play could be any bigger than the final stop of Jalen Milroe on 4th down in overtime. Defensive end Derrick Moore made a tremendous individual play to cross the face of the offensive tackle and make contact with Milroe behind the line of scrimmage. The rest of the Wolverines finished the tackle, and the celebration was allowed to commence around the country.

The special teams unit turned in their worst performance in memory, keeping the game closer than it should have been while Michigan dominated the other phases. Semaj Morgan muffed a punt in Q1 to set up Alabama’s first half touchdown. Two poor snaps led to a missed PAT, and a missed FG. And in the most heart-stopping moment of the day, the Tide’s final punt of regulation was muffed by Jake Thaw inside the 5-yard line. No doubt Jay Harbaugh will dedicate extra practice time to cleaning these issues up this week.

This game lived up to the heavyweight slugfest that it was hyped to be. While Michigan played sloppily, they also rose to the occasion in the largest moments. In that way, this Rose Bowl championship is a fitting microcosm for the whole 2023 season. But, the work’s not finished. Onward to Houston!

Posted on

Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Natty or Bust – Rose Bowl Alabama Preview

Support the Podcast, Get Gear

Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer preview the Rose Bowl vs Alabama – SP+ analysis, commentary, and prediction. With RB Blake Corum, QB J.J. McCarthy, and WR Roman Wilson.

Subscribe:
Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Google Podcasts | Spotify | Pandora | Stitcher | Email | RSS |


Podcast Archive

Podcast Summary

  • Michigan Wolverines’ Rose Bowl preview.0:00
    • Michigan football players discuss Rose Bowl preparation and expectations.
  • Michigan’s football team’s unexpected success.1:50
    • Michigan football is in the best position to fulfill offseason promises with top seed and Rose Bowl berth.
  • College football playoff rankings and Michigan’s chances against top teams.2:57
    • Phil Callihan: Excited to face Alabama, wishes it was Washington for old school nostalgia.
    • Clint Derringer: Michigan tops SP plus rankings, favored by at least a touchdown against other playoff teams.
    • Michigan has been focused on beating the best teams, including Georgia and Alabama, and has been preparing a similar game plan to utilize against Alabama.
    • Alabama has had struggles throughout the season, including a close win over Auburn and a tough game against Georgia in the SEC championship.
  • Alabama’s season, strengths, weaknesses, and Michigan’s potential strategy.9:17
    • Alabama’s talent is unmatched, but they’ve struggled against lesser opponents.
    • Phil Callihan analyzes Alabama’s season, questioning their inconsistency and luck in close games.
    • Phil Callihan notes that Florida State’s offense is not explosive, but their defense has shown improvement in recent games.
    • Callihan wonders if Michigan will stick with their run-heavy attack or switch to a more balanced offense against Alabama, given the Tide’s strength against quarterbacks.
  • Michigan football’s strengths and weaknesses in the CFP championship game.16:27
    • Clint Derringer highlights Alabama’s talented secondary, particularly outside cornerback McKinstry and Terry Arnold, as a strength and a potential matchup advantage for Alabama.
    • Derringer believes Michigan will focus on the run game to control the clock and measure possessions, with Blake Corum expected to carry the load, and the interior offensive line and tight ends potentially providing exploitable matchups.
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss the potential for Alex Orji to disrupt Alabama’s defense by running on the edges, particularly early in the game.
    • They also note that Alabama’s offensive linemen are large, which could be a challenge for Michigan’s defense.
  • Alabama-Michigan football game strategy.22:21
    • Phil Callihan: Michigan defense matches up well against Alabama’s strengths, but Alabama will try to scheme to exploit weaknesses.
    • Clint Derringer: Alabama quarterback Jalen Millrow’s athleticism and arm strength pose a threat, so Michigan defense should utilize safeties, zone coverage, and motion to make reads more difficult.
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Alabama’s offense, highlighting the importance of neutralizing defensive tackles Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Chris Jenkins, while also emphasizing the need for disciplined pass rush to force Jalen Nogo into mistakes.
    • Derringer believes Michigan’s defense is built for this strategy, with the ability to keep Ohio State at bay by not letting them be explosive and making them take the short passing game in front of them.
  • Michigan and Alabama’s mindset heading into the college football playoff.27:37
    • Michigan and Alabama players express chip on their shoulder ahead of championship game.
    • Michigan should embrace their number one ranking and play with confidence against Alabama.
  • Michigan football’s preparation for the College Football Playoff.31:12
    • Phil Callihan: Michigan has pressure to avoid first-round exit in college Football playoffs after three consecutive appearances.
    • J.J. McCarthy: Quarterback emphasizes teamwork and poise, citing coaches who prioritize collective success over individual accolades.
    • Michigan players and coaches acknowledge the need to reduce turnovers and execute cleanly on offense to beat Alabama’s high-scoring offense.
    • Both teams have highly rated special teams units, with Michigan focusing on protecting their punter and Alabama executing 10-12 play drives.
  • Michigan vs. Alabama football game with insights from analysts.36:30
    • Clint Derringer predicts Michigan will win with a score of 27-24, citing the team’s ability to contain Alabama’s offense and make big plays in the passing game.
    • Phil Callihan predicts Michigan will win with a score of 24-21, highlighting the team’s strong defense and potential for big plays from JJ McCarthy.
    • Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss Michigan’s chances against Alabama in the Citrus Bowl, with Callihan highlighting the team’s defensive line and Derringer emphasizing the importance of a grinded-out game.
    • J.J. McCarthy and Roman Wilson discuss their preparation for the game, with McCarthy focusing on being present in the moment and Wilson noting that the coach asked for input but was not provided.
Posted on

By the Numbers: Game 14 CFP SF vs. Alabama @ Rose Bowl

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan shut out the Iowa Hawkeyes 26-0 in Indianapolis to secure their third straight B1G Ten Championship.  The offense didn’t put up flashy statistics, but the defense only allowed Iowa one scoring opportunity that ended with a fumble recovery for the Wolverines.

NEXT UP: vs. Alabama: SP+ 7th, 23.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 8.4, Michigan Win Probability 69%

Michigan maintained the #1 SP+ ranking, and added the top ranking in the CFP poll, AP poll, and Coaches’ poll.  According to SP+, the Wolverines would be favored over any of the other three playoff teams: Texas (6th, 24.6); Alabama (7th, 23.7); Washington (11th, 18.6)

Michigan Offense (10th) vs. Alabama Defense (9th) 

The Michigan offense and Crimson Tide defense square up pretty equally on paper.  However, the SP+ model cannot factor in the season ending injury to All-American guard Zak Zinter.  Since the injury in the second half of the Ohio State game, senior Karsen Barhart slid inside to guard to backfill Zinter, and Trente Jones entered at right tackle.  This configuration allowed four sacks to Iowa in the B1G Championship game, and only mustered 106 rushing yards.  The Wolverines need a huge bounce back performance from the offensive line group to keep Alabama edge rushers Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell off JJ McCarthy.

The strength of the Alabama defensive unit resides in the secondary.  Both corners Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold will play in the NFL soon.  In order to attack the Crimson Tide, Michigan will have to look for match up advantages in the middle of the field.  Center Drake Nugent and guard Trevor Keegan will need decisive wins on the interior to pave the way for Blake Corum between the tackles.  Then JJ McCarthy should be able to find Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards covered by linebackers and safeties who first have to respect the interior run threat.  Running QB Alex Orji could also play a key role in creating a run game advantage by running option plays.

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Alabama Offense (11th)

The Wolverines defense should have an advantage over the Alabama offense.  The strength of Michigan’s defensive line will create problems for Alabama’s blocking scheme.  I expect Bama to utilize double teams on the interior against DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant.  The resulting single blocking on the edge must be exploited by Jaylen Harrell, Josiah Stewart, Derrick Moore, and Braden McGregor.  In my eyes, the edge rushers are the largest key for this game.  Alabama QB Jalen Milroe can make plays with his legs, and throws the deep ball very well.  However, he will also make a handful of big mistakes in each half, very similar to Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa.  The pass rush must be disciplined by staying in their rush lanes without providing an escape alley for Milroe.  The Wolverines can create big plays by making him read the downfield coverage from a collapsing pocket as often as possible.

The Crimson Tide are not as explosive in 2023 as they have been in years past.  After a string of Heisman winners on the offensive side of the ball, this year’s Alabama squad doesn’t have the same dominant superstar playmaker.  Wide receiver Jermaine Burton is the most dangerous threat in my opinion, averaging 22.2 yards per reception and pulling in 8 touchdowns on the season.  In the backfield, Bama had three players carry the ball over 100 times.  Running back Jase McClellan should be the secondary focus for stopping the running attack, after the QB Milroe.  We saw Alabama’s late-season opponents dedicate one, or sometimes two (!), players as spies to follow Milroe on the ground.  We can expect Jesse Minter to utilize a similar plan by keeping safeties over the top of Burton, and using linebackers Michael Barret and/or Junior Colson to chase the quarterback on scramble plays.

PREDICTION: These two blue-blood programs will meet in the Granddaddy of them All, the Rose Bowl, for the first time.  With the B1G Ten, SEC, and College Football Playoff all expanding in 2024, this may be one of the last hurrahs for nostalgia and tradition to bolster the high-stakes CFP atmosphere.  I expect this game to be dictated by both defensive units, and potentially a few special teams plays.  The scoreboard could stay tight for the entire duration, but in the 4th quarter I think the experience and poise of JJ McCarthy and the Wolverines will lead to a decisive play to clinch Michigan’s first CFP victory.
Michigan 27 Alabama 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 12/17/23, 13-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 32.1
    • SP+ Offense: 10th (↓1), 37.6
    • SP+ Defense: 1st (↑1), 7.4
    • SP+ Special Teams: 4th (↑1), 2.0
  • AP Poll: 1st (↑1), 1539
  • Coaches’ Poll: 1st (↑1), 1535
  • CFP Rank: 1st (↑1)
Posted on

Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Back to Back to Back Big Ten Champions – Michigan 26 Iowa 0

Support the Podcast, Get Gear

Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer discuss Michigan’s 26-0 victory over Iowa to clinch a third consecutive B10 Championship. With QB JJ McCarthy, RB Blake Corum, LB Michael Barrett, DB Mike Sainristil, OL Trevor Keegan and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.

Subscribe:
Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Google Podcasts | Spotify | Pandora | Stitcher | Email | RSS |


Podcast Archive

Podcast Summary

  • Michigan Wolverines’ back-to-back Big 10 championships.0:00
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss the Michigan Wolverines’ back-to-back Big 10 championships and the team’s goals for the future.
  • College football team rankings and matchups.1:47
    • Clint Derringer: Michigan’s offense dominated Iowa’s defense in Big Ten Championship game.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ victory and offensive performance.3:19
    • Clint Derringer expresses concern about Michigan’s offensive line play and depth issues in their victory over Iowa.
    • Phil Callihan notes that Michigan’s offense struggled throughout the game, with only 10 points in the first quarter and 6 points in the fourth quarter, leading to a 26-0 shutout victory over Iowa.
    • Clint Derringer agrees that the offense has been inconsistent, with injuries and health concerns affecting their performance, but expects them to improve with bowl prep and the return of JJ McCarthy.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ game strategy and performance.7:35
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Michigan’s game plan against Iowa, highlighting their focus on AJ’s running ability and the defense’s shutout victory.
    • Michigan’s offense appeared limited in their game plan against Iowa, with JJ McCarthy struggling with an injured ankle.
    • Phil Callihan highlights the limited targets for JJ McCarthy, a potential Heisman Trophy candidate, and the success of Cornelius Johnson.
    • Callihan praises the play of Samaj McKenzie on a 87-yard punt return, and the defender who made an amazing tackle after initially missing one.
  • Michigan football’s win over Iowa, including player analysis and injury concerns.13:48
    • Clint Derringer highlights the impact of Michigan freshman receiver, Smosh Morgan, on the game, particularly in the return game and on the edge in the run game.
    • Phil Callihan agrees, noting that Morgan’s play had a huge impact on the game, including on field position, and that Michigan tried to punt away from him for the rest of the game.
    • Clint Derringer highlights Michigan’s versatility in beating Iowa, mentioning their punter as their best player and the team’s ability to adapt and win in different ways.
    • Phil Callihan and Michael Barrett discuss the defense’s performance, noting that they kept the pressure up on Iowa and the offense only needed to do enough to win the game.
    • Clint Derringer questions Jonathan’s health and its impact on Iowa’s defense, particularly against Alabama’s skill positions.
    • Mikey Sanders earns MVP of the Big 10 Championship game, making key plays on defense and special teams.
  • Player’s award nomination and position switch.22:39
    • Phil Callihan praises player’s award win despite unexpected position switch.
  • Michigan football’s success and appreciation for the team’s achievements.23:52
    • Mike Sainristil: team’s success is due to brotherhood, hard work, and being in the right place at the right time.
    • Jim Harbaugh: Mikey Sainristil is an incredible player who always does the right thing, leading by example and making big plays.
    • Phil Callihan reflects on Michigan Wolverines’ success, urges fans to appreciate team’s achievements.
  • Michigan Wolverines football team’s success and camaraderie.28:16
    • Clint Derringer reflects on Michigan’s recent success, sharing his experiences as a fan during the 1995-1997 era when the team had a three-game winning streak.
    • Phil Callihan agrees, noting that it’s great for his kids to be at an age where they can experience Michigan football during this successful era, and he’s happy for Clint’s kids to be able to live through this time as well.
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan appreciate the Michigan Football team’s camaraderie and positivity, despite the ups and downs of the season.
    • Jim Harbaugh, Blake Corum, and JJ McCarthy share a special bond and communicate well, according to the postgame interview.
    • Jim Harbaugh and the team emphasize the importance of being a “team, the team, the team” (0:33:34-0:35:10)
    • The team’s unity and commitment to each other is evident in their play and postgame celebrations (0:35:10-0:35:34)
  • Michigan football’s success despite challenges.36:06
    • Team’s commitment to one track mindset impresses Derringer, despite challenges.
    • Michigan navigates NHL opportunities and culture, sharing wealth with teammates and community.
  • Michigan Wolverines football team’s resilience and success.40:37
    • Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer praise Michigan football’s resilience in overcoming obstacles and maintaining their culture despite setbacks.
    • Trevor Keegan, J.J. McCarthy, and the team embrace the target on their back and use it as fuel to improve, mentioning last season’s ending and the lessons learned from it.
    • Team’s focus on winning and preparation for future games, despite past successes.
    • Blake Corum reflects on his journey of self-discovery and personal growth, highlighting the importance of resilience and perseverance in the face of adversity.
    • Jim Harbaugh praises the current Michigan Football team for their determination and hard work, emphasizing their ability to turn challenges into opportunities for growth and success.