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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #02 – 11/06/2023 – An Easy Exhibition Game

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one (exhibition) game this past week, and they won it.  On Friday (11/03/2023), they beat Northwood 92-45 in Crisler Arena.  Since it was only an exhibition, Michigan’s record is still 0-0.

What Happened?

The game itself was pretty much what you’d expect from a matchup between a Big Ten team and a bad Division II team.  Michigan opened a quick 17-4 lead, and slowly built on it throughout the 1st half.  The lead got as high as 33 points (54-21) with 0:50 to go, and was 31 points (54-23) at halftime.

The 2nd half was more of the same.  Michigan started the 2nd half on fire, with a 21-2 run to make it 75-25 at the 13:51 mark.  They got the lead as high as 55 points (82-27) with 11:49 to go, and kept it around 50 points for the rest of the game.  Coach Martelli (filling in for Coach Howard, who is recovering from heart surgery) emptied the bench with 7:36 left in the game, and Michigan leading by 51 points (87-36).  That slowed down the UM offense enough to finish the game with only 5 more points, against 9 points for Northwood.

Stats

The game stats were predictably good.  Michigan shot well overall (36-for-68 = 52.9%), they shot 3-pointers well (12-for-27 = 44.4%), and they shot free throws decently (8-for-11 = 72.7%).  They won the rebounding battle (49-38) and the turnover battle (10-13).  They won this game with good shooting and rebounding.

Who Started?

The starters were Nimari Burnett, Dug McDaniel, Olivier Nkamhoua, Tarris Reed, Jr., and Terrance Williams II.

Who Looked Good?

McDaniel was the leading scorer among the starters, with 16 points in 20 minutes.  He shot pretty well (6-for-9 overall, 3-for-5 from deep), and he ran the offense just fine.

Tray Jackson was the star of the game, with 20 points off the bench.  He shot well (8-for-10 overall, 3-for-4 from deep), and he didn’t have any turnovers.  If he can keep that up, he’ll be starting soon.

Reed did a great job out there.  He scored 13 points and grabbed 10 rebounds (5 offensive), for a nice double-double.  He shot very well (5-for-6), and he did it all in only 11 minutes.

Nkamhoua was the only other starter in double figures, with 11 points.  He played center for most of the 2nd half (until the Scout Team went in), and he did very well.  He had 8 rebounds and 3 blocked shots.  He also had 6 assists.  He shot well (5-for-7), including 1-for-3 from deep.

Burnett almost hit double figures, with 9 points on very good shooting: 3-for-4 overall, 3-for-3 from deep.  He also had 6 assists.

Williams had a decent game, with 7 points and 5 rebounds.  He shot fairly well (3-for-6 overall, 0-for-2 from deep), and he didn’t have any turnovers.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

Will Tschetter played for 22 minutes and scored 7 points.  He shot pretty poorly (2-for-9 overall, 1-for-3 from deep), but he was the leading rebounder, with 13 boards.

George Washington III played a lot (25 minutes), shot a lot (12 shots), but didn’t score a lot (7 points).  He shot 3-for-12 overall, 1-for-3 from deep.  He’s a freshman, and he’s a good shooter, so he’ll have plenty of better games.

Who Else Played?

Ian Burns played for 5 minutes, and failed to score, going 0-for-2, both 3-pointers.  He’s on the Scout Team, so this isn’t unusual.

Harrison Hochberg was the only player from the Scout Team who scored.  He played for 5 minutes, and made his only shot, for 2 points.

Cooper Smith played for 8 minutes, and failed to score, going 0-for-2, both 3-pointers.  He’s on the Scout Team, so this isn’t unusual.

Jackson Selvala played for 8 minutes, and didn’t attempt a shot.  He’s on the Scout Team, so this isn’t unusual.

Who Didn’t Play?

Everyone who wasn’t injured played at least 5 minutes.  The injured players are: Jace Howard, Youssef Khayat, and Jaelin Llewellyn.

What Does It Mean?

What can we learn from an exhibition game against an overmatched opponent?  Not much.  It was nice to see the new players in an actual game, even if it was just an exhibition.  Michigan got to try some unusual lineup combinations, but we won’t see those in “real” games.

What’s Next?

This week, Michigan plays two games.  On Tuesday (11/07/2023, 8:30 p.m., BTN) they play UNC-Asheville, then on Friday (11/10/2023, 6:30 p.m., BTN) they play Youngstown State.  Both games are in Crisler Arena.

UNC-Asheville was 27-8 last season, 16-2 in the Big South.  They didn’t have any impressive wins, but they won the Big South conference tournament, which got them into the NCAA Tournament.  They lost in the 1st round to UCLA.  They don’t have any superstar players on their roster, and they don’t have much height: one 6’11” player.  This should be a decent test for Michigan, but one they can pass only if they stay focused.

Youngstown State was 24-10 last season, 15-5 in the Horizon League.  They didn’t have any impressive wins, and they lost in the 2nd round of their conference tournament, so they played in the NIT.  They lost in the 1st round of the NIT.  They don’t have any noteworthy players on their roster, but they do have some height: a 7-footer and a 7’3” player.  This is a game that Michigan should win, but with a couple 7-footers, YSU could make it interesting.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!

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Michigan 41 Purdue 13 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 41-13, Michigan by 28 over Purdue
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 36.1 (-8.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 30 (-2)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Purdue

The Wolverines didn’t have their best night on offense. Actually, it could have been their worst of the season by some metrics. It was the lowest success rate of 2023 (44%), and their lowest yards/play (6.4). However, they still managed to put 41 points on the board, scored on 7 of their 13 drives, and converted 5.4 points per scoring opportunity. While JJ was admittedly a bit off target (2nd worst performance of the year by my eye), he still completed 65% of his passes for 335 yards. If this is the floor in terms of execution for this offense, that is absolutely good enough to win the remainder of their B1G Ten games.

For most of the second half, Purdue had 6 points on the board that came off two turnovers in Michigan’s end. While the Wolverines weren’t playing in the Purdue backfield the way I expected, they still held the Boilermakers to 24% success rate and just 3.0 points per scoring opportunity. However, the last touchdown leaves a little bit of a sour taste in my mouth. The game situation (4th & 3 with :20 on the clock) told me Purdue would go for the end zone on that play if the offense took the field. Sure enough, the corner got beat on a double move and gave up a touchdown. It was just one bad snap during garbage time, but it’s not the first time that lack of focus hurt this defense. On the positive side, big hat tip to tonight’s leading tackler: Makari Paige. He is becoming a player whose presence you can feel from snap-to-snap.

On special teams, I feel a bit let down as I started to get comfortable with Tyler Morris back on punt return. His error was not easy to spot on the muffed punt. It looks somewhat random that a blocker gets hit with the ball. The key is, though, Morris has to be more aggressive getting to that spot, and also communicating to the rest of his guys to clear the way. Jake Thaw took over from that point forward and did a fine job, including a big return of 32 yards. James Turner looked great on his FG attempts and extra points.

In the context of purely football and season objectives, this is another dominant performance for a 9-0 team that has a great chance to compete for a national title. Looking at the schedule, I wasn’t surprised to see a little discontinuity the week before playing Penn State. And, given the media firestorm around Signgate, I think this team did a fine job keeping the main thing the main thing. Hopefully they can keep their heads down and keep grinding, while conference and school leaders can hash out the rest of this drama without undercutting this team. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 9 vs. Purdue

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines managed to continue increasing their level of dominance by steamrolling the Spartans in East Lansing 49-0.  That was followed by the least restful bye week in history as Michigan is embroiled in a massive media storm and investigation centered on the Connor Stalions’ scouting and recording scandal, nicknamed Signgate.

NEXT UP: vs. Purdue: SP+ 82nd, -4.4

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 36.1, Michigan Win Probability 98%

Michigan remained atop the SP+ rankings while idle.  Purdue is kicking off a rebuild after Jeff Brohm left for Louisville. Ryan Walters, the former defensive coordinator for Illinois, has taken over as head coach.  

Michigan Offense (7th) vs. Purdue Defense (65th) 

Walters has a defensive scheme that was highly effective for Illinois in his last job in Champaign.  The main challenge of installing the system during this rebuild at Purdue is the heavy reliance on man-to-man coverage by the secondary.  The Boilermakers think they have found talented players who can thrive on an island in coverage, but they are freshmen for this season.  I expect JJ McCarthy to have plenty of opportunities to exploit various 1-on-1 matchups for more big pass plays.

Perhaps the run game is more interesting as the calendar turns to November.  The Michian ground attack has been good with a 52% success rate so far this season. But, there is still untapped potential as the best defenses on the schedule are waiting this month.  Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards have yet to shake loose consistently once reaching the second level.  If we’re going to see the increased explosiveness in November, we should start to see a few more long runs this week against the Boilermakers.

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Purdue Offense (86th)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Michigan’s strength in the trenches lines up against a significant weakness for Purdue.  The Boilers have some injury problems on the offensive line.  The Wolverines will look to exploit those backups and create pressure that requires QB Hudson Card to make immediate decisions and quick throws.  

While the bye week brought many headaches for the program, the defensive unit needed the recovery time more than any other group.  We’ll see if Mason Graham is still wearing the club on his hand as he lines up at nose guard.  Also, we can get a better sense for who will be rotating into the secondary.  Reports are that Will Johnson and Rod Moore are much closer to fully healthy, but I am interested to see who gets early snaps at the other corner & safety positions.

PREDICTION: Football teams have to be able to bounce back and respond in the face of adversity.  We discuss this dynamic all the time, and the assumption is that the adversity presents itself on the field.  For the 2023 Michigan Wolverines, it seems that the primary challenge for the final stretch of the season will come from off the field.  The players have consistently modeled the right attitude and approach, summarized best by JJ McCarthy: they focus on “keeping the main thing the main thing”.  The Wolverines have to avoid trying to press and doing too much to answer critics and skeptics from outside the program. I think Michigan might face some early rhythm & timing issues coming out of the bye, but once they click we will see more of the same: dominance.
Michigan 40 Purdue 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 30 Purdue 17)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 11/1/23, 8-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 29.2
    • SP+ Offense: 7th (↓1), 39.5
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (same), 10.6
    • SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓1), 0.4
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1494
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1520
  • CFP Rank: 3rd
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Michigan Football Podcast — One Track Mind – Game 9 Purdue Preview

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer preview the game vs Purdue – SP+ analysis, commentary, and prediction. With QB JJ McCarthy, OL Trevor Keegan, WR Roman Wilson, TE AJ Barner, and Coach Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Archive

Podcast Summary

  • Michigan Wolverines football with Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer.0:00
    • Autograph app sponsors podcast, offers rewards for biggest Michigan fans.
  • Michigan football team’s strengths and weaknesses.1:39
    • Analysts expect a repeat of last season’s performance against Purdue, with Michigan facing similar challenges despite their undefeated record.
    • Disrupting Michigan’s rhythm with an unconventional bye week may help them more than hurt them in their upcoming game.
  • Michigan football’s resilience amid controversy.5:50
    • Michigan players express frustration with national attention, but show resilience in face of adversity.
    • Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss how Michigan’s undefeated season and recent controversies will draw extra attention to their upcoming game, with many rooting for an upset and scrutinizing every play.
    • The hosts believe the team will feel pressure to prove their dominance despite the negative attention, and they will need to separate the controversy from their preparation and performance on the field.
    • Clint Derringer and J.J. McCarthy discuss the importance of staying focused and executing well, even when facing adversity.
    • Michigan’s SP plus rankings remain dominant, with a rating of 29.2 and a three-point advantage over Georgia.
  • College football rankings and team performance.13:13
    • Phil Callihan notes that Michigan’s ranking in the college football playoffs rankings raises pressure on Ohio State, despite the Wolverines’ convincing win.
    • J.J. McCarthy credits staying humble and hungry for his success, despite a rough start vs Bowling Green.
    • Clint Derringer discusses the college football playoff rankings, emphasizing the importance of wins and losses on the field and the mixed methodology used by the committee to rank teams.
    • The top five undefeated power five teams are Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, and Washington, with Ohio State having the strongest resume based on their opponents’ strength.
  • Michigan football’s chances in the playoffs despite off-field distractions.18:18
    • Clint Derringer highlights Florida State’s dominance and Washington’s win over Oregon as standout performances, while Phil Callihan notes Ohio State’s potential to sneak into the playoff despite a loss if Michigan is their only defeat.
    • Roman Wilson enthusiastically endorses JJ McCarthy as a Heisman candidate, citing his ability to throw and run the ball, leadership, and community involvement.
    • Phil Callihan: JJ McCarthy’s performance could be a game-changer for Michigan, erasing stigma and shifting attention to on-field success.
    • Trevor Keegan: Player perspective on negative attention towards Michigan is frustrating, as they’ve worked hard to change the program’s culture.
  • Michigan football’s upcoming game, including analysis of the team’s passing game and defense.23:41
    • Clint Derringer predicts Michigan will win by 4 scores, with a final score of 40-10.
    • Ryan Walters’ defense will be challenged by JJ McCarthy’s proficiency in the passing game.
  • Michigan football’s kicking game and punting performance.26:42
    • Phil Callihan hopes to see Michigan’s kicking unit attempt long field goals in a game to gain reps and peace of mind.
    • Clint Derringer discusses Michigan football’s punting strategy and performance.