2023 Game 9 – Michigan 41 Purdue 13 Game Photos
Michigan 41 Purdue 13 – Game 9 Recap
GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS
Final Score: 41-13, Michigan by 28 over Purdue
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 36.1 (-8.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 30 (-2)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 9 RECAP vs. Purdue
The Wolverines didn’t have their best night on offense. Actually, it could have been their worst of the season by some metrics. It was the lowest success rate of 2023 (44%), and their lowest yards/play (6.4). However, they still managed to put 41 points on the board, scored on 7 of their 13 drives, and converted 5.4 points per scoring opportunity. While JJ was admittedly a bit off target (2nd worst performance of the year by my eye), he still completed 65% of his passes for 335 yards. If this is the floor in terms of execution for this offense, that is absolutely good enough to win the remainder of their B1G Ten games.
For most of the second half, Purdue had 6 points on the board that came off two turnovers in Michigan’s end. While the Wolverines weren’t playing in the Purdue backfield the way I expected, they still held the Boilermakers to 24% success rate and just 3.0 points per scoring opportunity. However, the last touchdown leaves a little bit of a sour taste in my mouth. The game situation (4th & 3 with :20 on the clock) told me Purdue would go for the end zone on that play if the offense took the field. Sure enough, the corner got beat on a double move and gave up a touchdown. It was just one bad snap during garbage time, but it’s not the first time that lack of focus hurt this defense. On the positive side, big hat tip to tonight’s leading tackler: Makari Paige. He is becoming a player whose presence you can feel from snap-to-snap.
On special teams, I feel a bit let down as I started to get comfortable with Tyler Morris back on punt return. His error was not easy to spot on the muffed punt. It looks somewhat random that a blocker gets hit with the ball. The key is, though, Morris has to be more aggressive getting to that spot, and also communicating to the rest of his guys to clear the way. Jake Thaw took over from that point forward and did a fine job, including a big return of 32 yards. James Turner looked great on his FG attempts and extra points.
In the context of purely football and season objectives, this is another dominant performance for a 9-0 team that has a great chance to compete for a national title. Looking at the schedule, I wasn’t surprised to see a little discontinuity the week before playing Penn State. And, given the media firestorm around Signgate, I think this team did a fine job keeping the main thing the main thing. Hopefully they can keep their heads down and keep grinding, while conference and school leaders can hash out the rest of this drama without undercutting this team. Onward!
By the Numbers: Game 9 vs. Purdue
LAST WEEK RECAP
The Wolverines managed to continue increasing their level of dominance by steamrolling the Spartans in East Lansing 49-0. That was followed by the least restful bye week in history as Michigan is embroiled in a massive media storm and investigation centered on the Connor Stalions’ scouting and recording scandal, nicknamed Signgate.
NEXT UP: vs. Purdue: SP+ 82nd, -4.4
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 36.1, Michigan Win Probability 98%
Michigan remained atop the SP+ rankings while idle. Purdue is kicking off a rebuild after Jeff Brohm left for Louisville. Ryan Walters, the former defensive coordinator for Illinois, has taken over as head coach.
Michigan Offense (7th) vs. Purdue Defense (65th)
Walters has a defensive scheme that was highly effective for Illinois in his last job in Champaign. The main challenge of installing the system during this rebuild at Purdue is the heavy reliance on man-to-man coverage by the secondary. The Boilermakers think they have found talented players who can thrive on an island in coverage, but they are freshmen for this season. I expect JJ McCarthy to have plenty of opportunities to exploit various 1-on-1 matchups for more big pass plays.
Perhaps the run game is more interesting as the calendar turns to November. The Michian ground attack has been good with a 52% success rate so far this season. But, there is still untapped potential as the best defenses on the schedule are waiting this month. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards have yet to shake loose consistently once reaching the second level. If we’re going to see the increased explosiveness in November, we should start to see a few more long runs this week against the Boilermakers.
Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Purdue Offense (86th)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Michigan’s strength in the trenches lines up against a significant weakness for Purdue. The Boilers have some injury problems on the offensive line. The Wolverines will look to exploit those backups and create pressure that requires QB Hudson Card to make immediate decisions and quick throws.
While the bye week brought many headaches for the program, the defensive unit needed the recovery time more than any other group. We’ll see if Mason Graham is still wearing the club on his hand as he lines up at nose guard. Also, we can get a better sense for who will be rotating into the secondary. Reports are that Will Johnson and Rod Moore are much closer to fully healthy, but I am interested to see who gets early snaps at the other corner & safety positions.
PREDICTION: Football teams have to be able to bounce back and respond in the face of adversity. We discuss this dynamic all the time, and the assumption is that the adversity presents itself on the field. For the 2023 Michigan Wolverines, it seems that the primary challenge for the final stretch of the season will come from off the field. The players have consistently modeled the right attitude and approach, summarized best by JJ McCarthy: they focus on “keeping the main thing the main thing”. The Wolverines have to avoid trying to press and doing too much to answer critics and skeptics from outside the program. I think Michigan might face some early rhythm & timing issues coming out of the bye, but once they click we will see more of the same: dominance.
Michigan 40 Purdue 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 30 Purdue 17)
MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 11/1/23, 8-0
- SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 29.2
- SP+ Offense: 7th (↓1), 39.5
- SP+ Defense: 2nd (same), 10.6
- SP+ Special Teams: 7th (↓1), 0.4
- AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1494
- Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1520
- CFP Rank: 3rd
Michigan Football Podcast — One Track Mind – Game 9 Purdue Preview
Support the Podcast, Get Gear
Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer preview the game vs Purdue – SP+ analysis, commentary, and prediction. With QB JJ McCarthy, OL Trevor Keegan, WR Roman Wilson, TE AJ Barner, and Coach Jim Harbaugh.
Subscribe:
Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Google Podcasts | Spotify | Pandora | Stitcher | Email | RSS |
Podcast Archive
Podcast Summary
- Michigan Wolverines football with Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer.0:00
- Autograph app sponsors podcast, offers rewards for biggest Michigan fans.
- Michigan football team’s strengths and weaknesses.1:39
- Analysts expect a repeat of last season’s performance against Purdue, with Michigan facing similar challenges despite their undefeated record.
- Disrupting Michigan’s rhythm with an unconventional bye week may help them more than hurt them in their upcoming game.
- Michigan football’s resilience amid controversy.5:50
- Michigan players express frustration with national attention, but show resilience in face of adversity.
- Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss how Michigan’s undefeated season and recent controversies will draw extra attention to their upcoming game, with many rooting for an upset and scrutinizing every play.
- The hosts believe the team will feel pressure to prove their dominance despite the negative attention, and they will need to separate the controversy from their preparation and performance on the field.
- Clint Derringer and J.J. McCarthy discuss the importance of staying focused and executing well, even when facing adversity.
- Michigan’s SP plus rankings remain dominant, with a rating of 29.2 and a three-point advantage over Georgia.
- College football rankings and team performance.13:13
- Phil Callihan notes that Michigan’s ranking in the college football playoffs rankings raises pressure on Ohio State, despite the Wolverines’ convincing win.
- J.J. McCarthy credits staying humble and hungry for his success, despite a rough start vs Bowling Green.
- Clint Derringer discusses the college football playoff rankings, emphasizing the importance of wins and losses on the field and the mixed methodology used by the committee to rank teams.
- The top five undefeated power five teams are Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, and Washington, with Ohio State having the strongest resume based on their opponents’ strength.
- Michigan football’s chances in the playoffs despite off-field distractions.18:18
- Clint Derringer highlights Florida State’s dominance and Washington’s win over Oregon as standout performances, while Phil Callihan notes Ohio State’s potential to sneak into the playoff despite a loss if Michigan is their only defeat.
- Roman Wilson enthusiastically endorses JJ McCarthy as a Heisman candidate, citing his ability to throw and run the ball, leadership, and community involvement.
- Phil Callihan: JJ McCarthy’s performance could be a game-changer for Michigan, erasing stigma and shifting attention to on-field success.
- Trevor Keegan: Player perspective on negative attention towards Michigan is frustrating, as they’ve worked hard to change the program’s culture.
- Michigan football’s upcoming game, including analysis of the team’s passing game and defense.23:41
- Clint Derringer predicts Michigan will win by 4 scores, with a final score of 40-10.
- Ryan Walters’ defense will be challenged by JJ McCarthy’s proficiency in the passing game.
- Michigan football’s kicking game and punting performance.26:42
- Phil Callihan hopes to see Michigan’s kicking unit attempt long field goals in a game to gain reps and peace of mind.
- Clint Derringer discusses Michigan football’s punting strategy and performance.
Michigan Football Podcast — Chilling in the Storm – Bye Week Drama
Support the Podcast, Get Gear
Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer discuss Michigan’s prospects heading into the season’s home stretch, J.J McCarthy’s Heisman prospects, and the hoopla over Michigan’s sign scouting. With QB J.J. McCarthy, WR Roman Wilson, RB Blake Corum, and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.
Subscribe:
Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Google Podcasts | Spotify | Pandora | Stitcher | Email | RSS |
Podcast Archive
Podcast Summary
- Michigan Wolverines football.0:00
- Tom Brady sponsors app to reward diehard Michigan fans.
- Michigan football’s performance and off-field drama.1:27
- Clint Derringer: Michigan’s on-field success despite off-field drama.
- Michigan QB JJ McCarthy’s Heisman chances.3:02
- Phil Callihan agrees that the current Wolverines team is better than expected, despite facing tough opponents like Purdue and Ohio State.
- Clint Derringer notes that JJ McCarthy’s Heisman hype is unusual due to his limited playing time, with only four passes thrown in the fourth quarter of eight games.
- Clint Derringer argues that JJ McCarthy’s Heisman case is based on his efficiency and leadership on a strong Michigan team, rather than just raw output.
- Phil Callihan agrees with Clint, highlighting JJ’s great answer to the question about his Heisman chances.
- Football player JJ McCarthy’s mindset and performance.8:16
- J.J. McCarthy emphasizes team’s championship goals, daily improvement, and stacking wins.
- J.J. McCarthy prioritizes humility and hunger, drawing inspiration from Kobe Bryant’s mentality.
- JJ McCarthy’s Heisman candidacy and Michigan football.11:31
- Quarterback J.J. McCarthy prioritizes injury prevention despite being a hard-hitting player.
- Phil Callihan believes JJ McCarthy’s performance in a day game at home against Penn State could make him a Heisman contender.
- Phil Callihan highlights JJ McCarthy’s leadership and all-around skills, with Roman Wilson praising his throwing and running abilities, as well as his community involvement.
- The team’s supportive attitude towards JJ, including his humility and focus on the team’s success, is also noted, with Callihan suggesting that even if JJ doesn’t win the Heisman, he’ll be okay with it if Michigan wins.
- Michigan Wolverines football program’s culture and leadership.17:42
- Derringer: JJ’s ability to block out negativity and lead with positivity since 2020.
- Distractions have been a persistent issue for the team, with the current one being the biggest.
- Callihan and Derringer discuss allegations of sign stealing in college baseball, with Callihan sharing his surprise that the sign in question was still up after a staff member left the program.
- College football program’s use of video to gain competitive advantage.23:54
- Clint Derringer criticizes the NCAA for leaving too much wiggle room in the rules regarding sign stealing, allowing big programs to gain an unfair advantage.
- Derringer believes the issue could have been solved 30 years ago if the NFL had implemented proper measures, such as microphones and speakers in helmets, to allow for direct communication between coaches and players on the sideline.
- Clint Derringer expresses frustration with Michigan’s NCAA violations, hoping for investigation and potential sanctions.
- Phil Callihan acknowledges that some coaches may cover their mouths when talking to avoid being recorded, but he doesn’t find it surprising or outrageous due to his background and expertise in the field.
- College football program’s potential NCAA violation.31:06
- Phil Callihan is unimpressed by the media frenzy over Michigan’s alleged rules violation, seeing it as equivalent to exceeding the speed limit by 5 mph.
- Callihan believes the media’s outrage is misplaced, as Michigan fans and big donors are largely supportive of Jim Harbaugh and the program’s financial success.
- Phil Callihan believes the NCAA is irrelevant and can’t take action against Michigan due to the potential backlash and legal implications.
- Callihan compares the NCAA to an accountant who tells you what you want to hear but doesn’t add up, and the national media is stirring misinformation to remain relevant.
- Michigan football’s NCAA investigation and potential PR strategy.37:23
- Clint Derringer suspects a PR strategy against Michigan, timed to coincide with the team’s most challenging stretch of the season.
- Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss the legitimacy of allegations against Michigan football, with Callihan expressing skepticism and Derringer withholding judgment until more facts are revealed.
- Phil Callihan questions the NCAA’s motives in investigating Jim Harbaugh’s alleged misconduct, citing inconsistent enforcement and prioritization of less important issues.
- College football revenue sharing and alleged sign stealing.45:19
- Jim Harbaugh advocates for revenue sharing with college student athletes.
- Jim Harbaugh argues for revenue sharing in college sports, citing successful examples from other industries.
- Jim Harbaugh addresses speculation about him being involved in a “hit job” on himself.
- Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss the Michigan Wolverines football team, with Clint expressing excitement to get back on the field and Phil pointing out the lack of resources dedicated to the team.
- Jim Harbaugh compares the team to field corn, suggesting they have the potential to grow and produce energy with any available resources.