Michigan 31 Rutgers 7 – Game 4 Recap
WEEK 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS
Final Score: 31-7, Michigan by 24 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 28.6 (-4.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 17 (+7)
FIVE FACTORS
WEEK 4 RECAP vs. Rutgers
A longing feeling still remains with the offense. It’s not very easy to put a finger on, but we can certainly feel like there is more potential remaining untapped. But, Michigan gained over 400 yards, and again eclipsed 50% success rate in the run game. We got an early peek at some creative play calling in the first quarter with a reverse flea flicker. I also enjoy the two-running back formations that the Wolverines put on film today. But, after those schemes were successful, they went back into the garage and the Wolverines methodically trampled the Rutgers defensive front. Blake Corum finished with 97 yards and 2 touchdowns. JJ McCarthy was cleaner today, going 15-for-21 through the air for 214 yards and a touchdown.
The defense had an unfortunate missed tackle on Rutgers’ first series of the day. A 69-yard touchdown pass on the third snap sucked the energy right out of the building. However, the Michigan defense flexed after the start of the 2nd quarter. The Scarlet Knights only gained 122 yards in the final three quarters of the game. Junior Colson led on the stat sheet with six tackles. But, the most electric moment of the game was a 71-yard pick six by captain Mike Sainristil in the 3rd quarter. Rutgers never seriously threatened to score again.
The kicking game also left something to be desired. James Turner narrowly missed a 42-yard field goal wide. Also, Jake Thaw wasn’t aggressive on an early punt and let it roll out. The result was a 75-yard field punt that flipped the field position. There is still no alarm to panic about, but this team will need to improve their special teams execution to win the biggest games on the schedule.
Overall, the Wolverines have held serve through these opening four home games. Now, Michigan must pack a few more improvements into their suitcases and travel for the first time in 2023 next week. We’ll keep an eye on exactly how good a win this ends up being over Rutgers. I think that team should head to a bowl this season, and might surprise one or two B1G teams, also. Onward!
Michigan Football Podcast — There’s Nothing Like Game Day – Game 4 Rutgers Preview
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Phil and Clint discuss the game vs Rutgers with SP+ analysis, preview, and game prediction.
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Podcast Summary
- Michigan Wolverines’ upcoming game vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights.0:00
- Rutgers has improved under Greg Schiano, giving Michigan problems in recent years.
 
 - Michigan Wolverines football team’s upcoming game against Rutgers Scarlet Knights.2:00
- Phil Callihan expresses hope that Michigan will clean up issues and roll over less talented Bowling Green, despite offensive inconsistencies.
 - Clint Derringer notes significant difference in competition level between Rutgers and previous non-conference opponents, with Rutgers offense and defense showing potential.
 - Michigan must execute offense at an average level to win, while limiting mistakes and Rutgers’ scoring opportunities.
 - Phil Callihan notes that the game against Rutgers will be different from the previous one against Michigan, as Rutgers has a better defense that won’t allow for risky plays like the flea flicker.
 - Kris Jenkins highlights the importance of decision-making and confidence in quarterback JJ McCarthy’s performance, citing instances of regression in recent games.
 
 - Michigan Wolverines’ football team’s performance and coaching staff.8:50
- Clint Derringer highlights importance of QB position, coaching staff’s return to normal roles for improved adaptability in Michigan’s offense.
 - Clint Derringer believes Rutgers will improve their ability to adjust on the fly in this game, potentially leading to better performance in the second half.
 - Phil Callihan expresses concern that Michigan’s tendency to start slow may continue, potentially impacting their ability to secure victories.
 
 - Michigan football team’s performance and strategy.12:29
- Phil Callihan is looking for Rutgers to “wail on” an opponent to make him feel better after the team’s lackluster performance in the first three games.
 - Clint Derringer believes that Sharon Moore’s return as offensive line coach will make a significant difference in the team’s in-game adjustments and overall performance.
 - Clint Derringer expects a close game between Rutgers and Michigan due to Rutgers’ improved defense and Michigan’s conservative offensive playcalling.
 - Derringer predicts a score of 27-10 in favor of Michigan, with Rutgers’ defense creating fewer havoc plays and Michigan’s offense relying on a conservative run-heavy gameplan.
 
 - Michigan football team’s offensive performance in upcoming game.18:28
- Phil Callihan wants Michigan to score sooner and more explosively, particularly in the first half, to avoid a close game.
 - He hopes to see long runs and passes from Blake and JJ, respectively, to extend the lead and showcase the team’s offensive capabilities.
 - Clint Derringer expects Michigan’s offense to be more explosive in the run game and exploit one-on-one matchups against the defense.
 
 - Michigan Wolverines’ offensive performance and potential improvements.22:59
- Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan analyze Michigan’s offensive struggles, particularly in the red zone, and discuss the impact of interceptions on the team’s scoring opportunities.
 - The hosts discuss the importance of JJ McCarthy being a “guardian of the ball” and avoiding costly turnovers, as well as the potential for Michigan to click into a higher gear on offense.
 - Phil Callihan highlights Michigan’s talent and potential for success in the Big Ten and college football playoffs, but emphasizes the need to improve ball security to achieve these goals.
 - Clint Derringer discusses personnel changes on the offensive line and the potential for LaDarius Henderson to start, as well as the team’s shift towards a more traditional running game.
 
 - Michigan football players’ injuries and performance.28:30
- Clint Derringer notes that some players may sit out or have reduced snap counts due to injuries, but the defensive tackle position has depth to absorb minor injuries.
 - LaDarius Henderson and Blake Corum share their thoughts on getting back to their best after injuries, with Henderson focusing on mental toughness and Corum working on cutting and being electric again.
 - Phil Callihan expects to see Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards make big plays, potentially including long touchdown runs or receptions.
 - Clint Derringer agrees, highlighting Corum’s potential to regain his top end speed and exploit Rutgers’ coverage, while also noting the potential for creative playcalling to involve Edwards.
 
 - Michigan Football with Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer.33:43
- Callihan and Derringer agree on preference for noon kickoffs, despite logistical challenges.
 - Phil Callihan expresses grumpiness about the possibility of Michigan football games being broadcast across multiple time zones.
 - Jim Harbaugh compares the Michigan Football program to a recession-proof housing market, describing it as a “superhero” that can absorb and overcome challenges.
 
 
By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. Rutgers
LAST WEEK RECAP
Michigan cashed in a few run game corrections, but JJ McCarthy had perhaps his worst game as a starter. The result was a 31-6 victory over BGSU that didn’t serve to calm the discomfort of our fan base.
NEXT UP: vs. Rutgers: SP+ 64th, 2.1
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 28.6, Michigan Win Probability 95%
The Big Ten season brings a marginal increase in opponent strength according to SP+. The model still favors the Wolverines by four touchdowns against the Scarlet Knights.
Michigan Offense (16th) vs. Rutgers Defense (44th)
This matchup will likely play the biggest role in the final outcome of the game. Greg Schiano has continued to improve on defense in each season since his return to Pascataway. The defensive line creates a lot of motion and disruption for the blocking scheme of the offensive line. This will be a legitimate test for Sherrone Moore’s group to show that they have ironed out the last of the wrinkles we’ve seen so far in the 2023 run game.
I expect a bounce-back performance from JJ McCarthy through the air after the night-game wakeup call last week. Really, the primary danger for Michigan in terms of an upset would be another sloppy performance riddled with turnovers. I don’t want the Wolverines to be completely risk averse, but they should prioritize executing the base offensive plays well.
Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Rutgers Offense (78th)
Again this week, we’ll see Michigan’s defensive line looking to exploit a giant mismatch, this time versus the Rutgers offensive line. The Scarlet Knights are led by mobile quarterback Gavin Wimsatt, and underrated running back Kyle Monangai. While I expect to see 2 or 3 Wolverines in the backfield on nearly every snap, Rutgers has shown the ability to exploit a defense using designed QB runs. The Scarlet Knights will be looking for a Denard-like performance from Wimsatt to try and shock Michigan.
When Rutgers does try to pass, they will likely settle for short dump off passes within 6 or 7 yards of the line of scrimmage. The tight ends and running backs have nearly as many targets as the wide receivers from game-to-game. The key will be fundamental tackling. Linebackers, safeties, and corners must be sure tacklers to keep short passes and QB run plays from becoming explosive plays.
PREDICTION: Michigan gains two intangible bonuses for Week 4: Jim Harbaugh returns to the sideline after completing his three-game suspension & the kickoff returns to the traditional noon window. I expect to see a game plan that is much more cleanly executed now that the coaching staff will all be back to their normally assigned roles. Also, we should see adjustments made more quickly. If the Wolverines get off to a fast start in all three phases, they could potentially bury Rutgers.
However, that has not been the case recently in these games against the Knights.  Greg Schiano will stick to a conservative, defense & field-position strategy to try and keep the game close.  Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca will also be looking for his preferred matchup to isolate Wimsatt.  This game could go by quickly with the new clock rules.  And, when we look up at the new scoreboards, we might be wondering how Rutgers managed to hang around.
Michigan 27 Rutgers 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 31 Rutgers 16)
MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/20/23, 3-0
- SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 28.2
- SP+ Offense: 16th (↓2), 37.8
 - SP+ Defense: 2nd (↑1), 9.9
 - SP+ Special Teams: 5th (↑35), 0.3
 
 - AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1481
 - Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1514
 - CFP Rank: N/A
 

Michigan Football Podcast — The No Star Defense – Game 3 Michigan 31 Bowling Green 6
Phil and Clint discuss Michigan’s 31-6 victory over Bowling Green with J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum, and Jim Harbaugh.
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Podcast Highlights
2023_12_PhilClintPodcast 03 UM 31 BG 6
Summary
- Michigan football’s trust-based defense and leadership.0:00
- Trust and teamwork are key to Michigan’s successful defense.
 
 - Michigan football’s performance in a close game.1:12
- Clint Derringer and Jim Harbaugh discuss Michigan’s win over Bowling Green, focusing on their performance in the game and their expectations for the season.
 
 - Michigan Wolverines’ game performance with a focus on QB JJ McCarthy’s struggles.2:46
- Michigan football struggles in non-conference game, despite strong running game performance.
 - Clint Derringer highlights JJ McCarthy’s poor performance, including 3 interceptions and a touchdown, despite positive aspects of the game such as the running game and offensive line play.
 - Derringer notes that the game was short and difficult to get into rhythm, with Bowling Green starting their second and third string quarterbacks, and the Wolverines struggling to execute and make plays.
 
 - JJ McCarthy’s performance in a college football game.7:46
- JJ McCarthy takes responsibility for interceptions, vows to learn from mistakes.
 - Phil Callihan highlights JJ McCarthy’s NFL-caliber throws, but also notes the risk of overestimating his abilities.
 
 - Michigan football’s performance and coaching staff changes.12:20
- Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss JJ McCarthy’s performance, with a focus on the importance of ball control and the likelihood of regressing to the mean.
 - Clint Derringer suggests that the absence of Jim Harbaugh and the resulting chaos on the coaching staff have had an impact on Michigan’s performance, despite the team’s 3-0 record.
 - Derringer believes that the non-standard routines and communications within the coaching staff are affecting the team’s performance, and he looks forward to moving past this chapter of the season.
 
 - Michigan Wolverines’ football game with analysis of player performance.17:15
- Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan analyze Michigan football’s victory, focusing on Blake Corum’s performance and potential rust from injury.
 - Phil Callihan praises the atmosphere of the game, particularly the nighttime effects, which he found impressive.
 - Callihan notes that while the game was not as good as expected, the team’s performance had a “cruddy feeling” despite the 31-6 victory.
 - Callihan and Derringer analyze defense’s performance in game, highlighting interception in end zone.
 
 - Michigan football team’s defense in a game.24:34
- Michigan’s defense turns the tide with turnovers and stops, leading to a comeback victory.
 - Clint Derringer highlights dominant defense, poor third-down performance in Michigan win.
 
 - Michigan Wolverines football team’s performance and upcoming challenges.28:10
- Phil Callihan agrees with Coach Harbaugh that it’s better to feel bad after a win than after a loss, and notes that the defense is “lights out” but will be challenged by better teams.
 - Callihan expresses frustration with the close score of 7-6 against Bowling Green, hoping for a more convincing win, and doubts Coach Harbaugh’s satisfaction with the result.
 - Concern about secondary health, but backup players have been positive.
 - Clint Derringer praises punter Tyler Morris for sure-handed fielding despite difficult bounces.
 
 

 



























































































