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Michigan 27 USC 24 – Game 4 Recap

GAME 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over USC
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.9 (-0.9)
CD Projection: USC by 4 (+7)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 4 RECAP vs. USC

To make a classic football game, both sides have to have a legit chance to win. USC played a whale of a game on the road to put themselves in position to win. Lincoln Riley vs. Wink Martindale was like Ali vs. Frazier. Unfortunately, the offense played the role of Achilles’ heel. The Wolverines only mustered 32 yards passing on 12 attempts. But, the offense was able to put 21 points on the board (defense scored 6) because they committed to their smash identity. One critical result here is buying more time for Kirk Campbell to figure out how to create more balance with scripted plays & high percentage throws. Kalel Mullings should get at least one week of Campbell’s salary. Mullings rushed 17 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns, including a 4th down, game-on-the-line smash that should go into Wolverines’ lore forever.

Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale had a proverbial gauntlet laid down after Texas romped over Michigan in the Big House. He had to simplify enough to let these college kids play fast, without too much thinking. At the same time, he had to keep enough variability to match wits with offensive wizard Lincoln Riley coming off a bye. This afternoon was a resoundingly successful proof of concept for the ol’ NFL coordinator. The Trojans started the third quarter with an impressive 75-yard touchdown drive. Outside of that drive, the wins for USC were more flashes in the pan. By the end, Miller Moss was seeing ghosts, and hearing footsteps when it mattered the most in he fourth quarter. Will Johnson cemented his big play legacy when he set a Michigan record with his third career pick-six, but left the game early for an unknown reason.

We now know that the Michigan kicker, Dominic Zvada, is human. He clunked a PAT low enough to get blocked. That missing pointt gave USC an opportunity to tie the game with a field goal at the end. However, his boy Tommy Doman stepped in and carried the kicking game. Doman averaged 47.9 yards per punt on seven punts. The first half field position advantage led directly to the Wolverines’ 14-3 half time lead.

Live during the game, I noted that Michigan was approximately 70/30 run plays and USC was 70/30 pass plays. This sparked my memory of Jim Harbaugh’s quip about George Patton getting it done on the ground, and Neil Armstrong getting it done through the air. While both sides left it all out there, the astronaut’s offense from California couldn’t outlast Patton’s barrage on the ground. Smash!

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By the Numbers: Game 4 vs. USC

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan handled their business early, but still didn’t look sharp in the passing game.  The Wolverines overcame 3 interceptions and a -2 turnover margin to defeat the Arkansas State Red Wolves 28-18. 

NEXT UP: vs. USC: SP+ 17th, 16.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 3.9, Michigan Win Probability 60%

The SP+ model is blind to the QB switch to Alex Orji.  We shall see if the offense ticks up from 57th nationally with the added dimension to the run game.  USC meanwhile is climbing as a defense, but with only two games of data to add atop their preseason ranking.

Michigan Offense (57th) vs. USC Defense (70th) 

The switch to Orji as the starting quarterback will get the majority of media attention.  But, the real test is how much continued improvement we see from the offensive line.  LT Myles Hinton has been good, but nobody else up front has stood out for positive performance.  At a minimum, this unit needs to clean up the mental mistakes.  For the Wolverines to be successful, they need to be successful on standard downs, especially 1st & 10.  Consistently putting 2nd & 5, or 3rd & 1 in front of Alex Orji will allow coordinator Kirk Campbell to utilize any page from the playbook that they’ve installed. 

Michigan Defense (4th) vs. USC Offense (4th)

Very similarly to the Texas matchup, this is strength-on-strength.  Lincoln Riley knows how to maximize his QB’s talent.  Miller Moss is not a serious run threat, but they will look to pick on the linebackers with RPO’s, as well as attacking Jayaire Hill down the field.  Wink Martindale showed that he can turn the dial down last week versus Arkansas State.  Early in this game, we want to see Michigan hang back and force USC to hand he ball off into light boxes.  The Wolverines’ defensive line should be able to win one-on-one matchups inside, allowing the linebackers to stay in passing lanes. 

PREDICTION: Michigan needs their best performance of the season to beat the Trojans.  There are a handful of 50/50 what-if matchups, and I think Michigan needs to win three or four of those coin flips.  We need Orji to threaten the safeties with his legs (good blocking) and with his arm (stretching deep when they creep forward).  We also need to move the chains consistently enough that USC is forced to drive 70+ yards on each of their possessions.  Keep the game close, and look to wear the Trojans down in the 4th quarter.

More bad news for Michigan as we hear that tight end Coleston Loveland will be sidelined with a shoulder injury.  This puts more pressure on Kirk Campbell to scheme up plays that will give Alex Orji a chance to hit an open receiver.  When in doubt, pull the ball down and run!  It just feels like there may be too many what-ifs for Michigan to overcome.
Michigan 20 USC 24 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 USC 10)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/17/24, 2-1

CFP Rank: N/A

SP+ Overall: 12th (↑1), 17.4
SP+ Offense: 57th (↑10), 28.4
SP+ Defense: 4th (↓1), 11.3
SP+ Special Teams: 11th (↑13), 0.3

AP Poll: 18th (↓1), 447

Coaches’ Poll: 17th (↓1), 439

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Big Ten Openers – – Michigan State — Looking Back – 1998

Looking Back is a Special Feature by Jeff Cummins

The fifth and final installment of this week’s series looking back at Big Ten openers takes us to 1998. The year started out perfectly. The national economy was roaring and our beloved Michigan Wolverines were national champions, having just completed a perfect season. If that wasn’t enough, Michigan added 5,000 seats to Michigan Stadium in the offseason to reclaim the title of largest on-campus football stadium in the United States, and the team had just signed the top-ranked quarterback recruit (Drew Henson) and top-ranked running back recruit (Justin Fargas) in the nation. It sure was great to be a Michigan Wolverine!

It was so great, in fact, that the party never seemed to end for the Wolverines. Many a back was patted, and many a drink enjoyed. Unfortunately, the new season arrived with all the charm of a hangover. Charles Woodson was gone, off to the NFL. Marcus Ray was suspended for a few games for communicating with an agent. Quarterback Brian Griese had graduated, and he was replaced by some new guy. Hey, what happened to the party? Where did everybody go?

Yes, things started off so poorly that Michigan violated one of Bo Schembechler’s cardinal rules, allowing one loss to become two losses. Michigan woke up against Eastern Michigan, but the Big Ten opener would bring a much more challenging foe.

Yes, by late September, Michigan knew it had to start playing serious football again, and just in the nick of time, because Nick Saban was leading a bunch of angry behemoths in green helmets down the Michigan Stadium tunnel. All the accolades that Michigan had received the previous season seemed a distant memory now; reality was setting in.

Fortunately for Michigan, facing Michigan State proved to be just the tonic for the Wolverines. Michigan State jumped out to an early 3-0 lead, but the Wolverines wasted no time answering. Anthony Thomas received the ensuing kickoff, and kept running, all the way into Spartan territory. Quarterback Tom Brady taught everyone his name, as he started throwing pinpoint passes that penetrated the Michigan State defense.

Still, it wouldn’t be easy. Plaxico Burress hauled in a touchdown pass to give Michigan State the lead, and he gave the Spartans possession of the ball on the ensuing kickoff when he hit Grady Brooks and caused a fumble. Unfazed by the Michigan State theatrics, the Michigan defense stopped the Spartans, and then Brady responded by handing the ball to Anthony Thomas, who rumbled 70 yards for the tying score. Suddenly, Michigan State had to respect Thomas and the counter trey run, which left the Spartans’ secondary vulnerable. Brady responded by throwing a fade in the corner of the north end zone to Tai Streets, who outjumped a cornerback to pull down the ball, giving Michigan a 17-10 lead. Jay Feely extended Michigan’s lead to 10 points, but this was still a Michigan vs. Michigan State game. There was still some drama left, and it occurred when James Whitley fumbled a punt, which was recovered by State’s Aric Morris. A few minutes later, Michigan State QB Bill Burke snuck over from the 1-yard line, and Michigan went to the locker room at halftime nursing a 20-17 lead.

The drama ended in the second half. Michigan went back to basics in all three phases of the game, gradually establishing unmistakable control. A long drive by the Wolverines resulted in another Feely field goal. Michigan led by six points in the fourth quarter when Brady threw a 48-yard dagger to Marcus Knight that was ruled short of the goal line. Undaunted, Brady snuck over the goal line on the next play to give Michigan firm control of the game.

The Michigan defense then shut door on the Spartans, stifling the last of their opportunities, as Michigan held on to win, 29-17.

The 1998 season started out in rocky fashion, but the Wolverines made the best of things, finishing with a 45-31 win over Arkansas in the Florida Citrus Bowl.

Many thanks to ABC Sports, YouTube, and YouTube poster Pizza Pizzichetti for the video of this game. As always, we own nothing and this blog post is provided strictly for the enjoyment of readers.

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Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Game 4 Preview — USC

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Tune into the latest podcast as @pcallihan and @Clint_Derringer dive into Michigan’s crucial upcoming matchup against USC, highlighting the switch to Alex Orji at quarterback. The game promises to be a tight contest. Key players like Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards will be essential, while Michigan’s defense faces a stiff challenge against a rising USC team.

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