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Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer give their predictions for game 6 of the Michigan football season vs Nebraska with clips from head coach Jim Harbaugh.
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LAST WEEK RECAP
The players, coaches, and even the fan base are starting to believe in Michigan as a B1G Ten East contender after the Wolverines traveled to Madison and schooled the Badgers 38-17.
The SP+ model and the Vegas betting lines have converged in Week 6 in regard to Michigan. There is only a 0.1 point difference in the spread, and a 1 point difference in the O/U total projection. This spread is narrowed significantly by an adjustment for home field advantage. We’ll see if Michigan can stay sharp on the road for the second consecutive week.
Michigan Offense (26th) vs. Nebraska Defense (20th)
The Wolverines are coming off another clean performance against the SP+ #3 defense from Wisconsin. The Nebraska “black shirt” defense continues to improve, and manages to keep the Cornhuskers in every game they play.
Michigan will have to deploy a balanced game plan, but I expect Josh Gattis to start the game by testing the interior of Nebraska’s defense. The onus will be on the Michigan offensive line to create movement against their DL, and on Cade McNamara to make the correct reads and accurate throws on RPO opportunities behind the linebackers.
Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Nebraska Offense (34th)
On paper, the Michigan defense appears to have another significant advantage over Nebraska’s offensive unit. One particularly lopsided match up will be on the edges of the line of scrimmage. Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, and the rest of the “Reapers” who play OLB for the Wolverines will be too much to handle for the Huskers’ offensive tackles. That means Scott Frost will be leaning heavily on plays that get the ball out of QB Adrian Martinez’ hands quickly as possible.
More importantly, I think Nebraska will be extremely dependent on Martinez’ legs to move the ball by running option plays. Surely Michigan is reviewing the film of Noah Vedral causing problems in the 2nd half of the Rutgers game. Getting a healthy Josh Ross back into the center of the defense to make the calls and pick up formation tendencies will be a huge boost against Frost’s QB run game.
PREDICTION: The dynamic of this game is very similar to last week as Michigan prepped for a trip to Madison. You can add in the challenge of sitting around in a hotel all day waiting for a night game. The atmosphere and crowd will be much more jacked up for this one. Also, Adrian Martinez presents a much more dangerous dual threat challenge than Graham Mertz last week. However, Martinez is prone to taking risks with the ball, and making turnover-worthy mistakes multiple times per game.
Michigan will also leverage a clear advantage in special teams in this game. Nebraska dropped their game against MSU specifically because of poor punting and punt coverage. With all that said, the single largest reason that I am much more confident that Michigan can bring their best performance on the road is the strength of the player leadership on this team makes a significant difference. Nebraska’s penchant for making critical errors, and my confidence in Michigan’s ability to stay laser focused in the face of adversity make this feel like another multiple score victory for the Wolverines.
Michigan 33 Nebraska 13 (PRESEASON Michigan 42 Nebraska 23)
MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/3/21), 5-0
AP Poll: 9th (↑5), 1,053
Coaches’ Poll: 8th (↑6), 1,125
CFP Rank: N/A
Let’s break down Michigan’s first touchdown versus Wisconsin in their 38-17 victory.
The Wolverines execute a textbook example of flea flickers pass. They line up in an I-formation with two wide outs. Roman Wilson goes in motion pre-snap and the Wisconsin defensive back #21 goes with him, clearing out the left side of the field.
Look at what Cade sees pre-snap. You can #9 the safety already cheating up.
#25 Hassan Haskins is lined up behind Cade to take the hand-off post snap. By lining strong right the Wolverines cause the Wisconsin defense to shifts attackers away from the center of Michigan formation. The Michigan offensive line must prevent any defender from getting to Haskins before he can flip the ball back to McNamara. Michigan has five offensive lineman to counter Wisconsin’s nose tackle, defensive linemen, and defensive end (4).
This play targets the safety #9, who overcommits to the run when he see #25 Hassan Haskins take the hand-off from #12 Cade McNamara.
#9 comes up to cover the run and he shifts to cover #14 Roman Wilson when the he recognizes that something is afoot. #6 Cornelius Johnson takes off to the left corner of the endzone. #21 from Wisconsin who had gone in motion to cover #14 Wilson shifts to cover Johnson but he is too late, getting turned around with his back to the play in an effort to close the gap. #11 shadows mirrors Johnson but can’t match his speed.
McNamara throws a prefect pass to Johnson and Michigan scores their first touchdown of the day.
Everything worked for Michigan to execute this play.
Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer discuss Michigan’s 38-17 road win over Wisconsin.
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Final Score: 38-17, Michigan by 21 over Wisconsin
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 1 (+20)
CD Projection: Wisconsin by 3 (+24)
Michigan now stands a perfect 5-0 after beating Wisconsin convincingly 38-17 in Madison. While nobody would call this a perfect performance for the Wolverines, this team showed mental toughness on the road that previous teams of the Jim Harbaugh era lacked. Michigan got off to a great start in the 1st quarter and never gave the Badgers any reprieve. When key plays needed to be made, various players managed to step up to the challenge. By the 4th quarter Wisconsin had suffered too many key injuries on offense and became totally one dimensional. The vaunted Badger defense also wore down early in the 4th quarter and finally conceded a handful of explosive plays to the Wolverines.
Offensively, Josh Gattis and his staff surprised me. I expected another conservative game plan. I thought Michigan would want to manage the offense to avoid risk in an effort to challenge the Badger offense’s execution problems this season. Instead, the Wolverines displayed their most balanced attack of the season running 54% of the time and passing 46% of the time (garbage time removed at the end). Cade McNamara finished 17-28 for 197 yards and 2 TDs. More importantly, I think, Gattis showed he was willing to stretch the defense vertically down the field once again. Keeping the pressure on the Wisconsin safeties deep helped create just enough room underneath, and unclogged the box just a bit for the run game.
The FOX broadcast team showered Michigan’s defense with a lot of love, and rightfully so. Wisconsin was only able to run 9 plays in the 1st quarter, and started the game with 4 straight 3-and-out drives. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz showed a lot of guts and accuracy just before halftime to cut Michigan’s lead to 13-10 with two perfect throws over Daxton Hill. However, Dax got the last laugh. Hill flashed into the backfield for a sack on a 3rd & 9 blitz on the first drive of the 3rd quarter. The backup QB was forced to take over from there, and Wisconsin was never within one score again.
Michigan leveraged a huge special teams advantage in this game also. The Wolverines turned a muffed punt into 3 points in the 1st half. Jake Moody was 2-for-2 on field goals, including a 47-yarder. And Wisconsin shanked one kickoff out of bounds trying to avoid giving the ball to Blake Corum. One big special teams swing occurred in the 2nd quarter when the Badgers nearly gave Michigan the ball back on a squib kick with less than a minute on the clock before halftime. Wisconsin managed to recover, and started their last drive at their own 37 yard line. That field position allowed them to unleash Mertz for their first touchdown of the game. Onward to Nebraska!