PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 40.9, Michigan Win Probability 99%
Michigan enters the regular season sporting the #3 overall SP+ ranking from Bill Connelly at ESPN. The Pirates from ECU are a reasonably successful Group of 5 program, but the model expects this to be a laugher.
Michigan Offense (7th) vs. ECU Defense (81st)
Michigan brings back six starters from the 2022 unit that finished ranked 15th in SP+. Blake Corum & Donovan Edwards represent the strongest running back room in the country, and the coaching staff believes the entire two-deep on the offensive line is NFL caliber. The Wolverines’ attack will again be centered on their powerful run game. However, new QB coach Kirk Campbell & offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore have indicated they want to increase the ratio of pass plays called in 2023.
Fans and analysts alike expect Michigan to get whatever production they want on the ground in this matchup. The more interesting dynamic will be down the field. Will senior receiver Roman Wilson see a major increase in targets after stepping in for Ronnie Bell? Who will emerge at the outside receiver position to join Cornelius Johnson? How will Kirk Campbell utilize personnel & formations to exploit matchup problems for Donovan Edwards and tight end Colston Loveland?
The ECU defense will utilize a variety of fronts and coverages in their scheme, which makes the Pirates a good non-conference test for junior quarterback JJ McCarthy. I am interested to see how much decision making the offensive staff puts on McCarthy’s plate, both pre-snap play adjustments and post-snap option reads. Ideally, we’ll get to see a few offensive series that rely heavily on the passing game. If this game gets lopsided, we don’t know how many snaps all the starters will get together.
Michigan Defense (4th) vs. ECU Offense (93rd)
Defensively, the Wolverines also return six starters from 2022 where they finished ranked 9th in SP+. Michigan is loaded with experience in the core of their unit, led by defensive tackle Kris Jenkins and bolstered by both Mike Barrett and Junior Colson returning as inside linebackers. Junior safety Rod Moore, sophomore corner Will Johnson, and sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham are all poised to make a leap toward All-American status.
The Big House will host the likely debut of ECU’s talented sophomore quarterback Mason Garcia. While the Pirates lost a majority of their production at the skill positions from last year, they will have experienced players stepping into larger roles. That experience will be critical to help steady the young quarterback as the Pirates will continue to focus on trying to play mistake-free on offense.
For me, the main matchup focus happens along the edge of the line of scrimmage. Michigan has question marks about how this defense will generate pressure on the quarterback. After both Aiden Hutchinson and David Ojabo were drafted into the NFL in spring 2022, Jesse Minter had to rely on overload schemes and blitzing to create havoc last season. In 2023 Michigan will look to senior Braden McGregor, junior transfer Josiah Stewart, and sophomore Derrick Moore to win more 1-on-1 battles in the pass rush. The ECU matchup could be advantageous for someone to create some buzz. Coming out of fall camp, the major questions for ECU seem to center around their offensive tackles.
PREDICTION: Jim Harbaugh will be serving the first of his three-game suspension on Saturday. Jesse Minter will add head coach responsibilities to his defensive coordinator role. On offense Kirk Campbell will be the interim play caller while Sherrone Moore also serves a one-game suspension. To top it all off, recent news rumblings indicate that Michigan may have a handful of injury concerns on both sides of the ball.
With all of that bad news accounted for, Michigan is fortunate to be able to lean on superstar talent (Corum, McCarthy, Jenkins) as well as impressive depth. A laundry list of distractions like the one described above is cause for concern. However, we repeatedly see this group of players excel in their leadership roles. Somehow, they manage to compartmentalize off-field chaos and focus on their objectives game-by-game. We might see a few hiccups on Saturday, but I expect to see the Wolverines overwhelm ECU in the opener at the Big House.
On offense, Donovan Edwards returns in the backfield next to Heisman hopeful Blake Corum. Junior quarterback J.J. McCarthy will be responsible to distribute the ball to both star running backs while the Wolverines also look to increase the share of pass plays called in 2023.
Michigan enters the 2023 season as the two-time defending B1G Ten champions. The Wolverines were able to prove the 2021 season was no fluke by traveling to Columbus and pulling away from the Buckeyes for their first road win in The Game since 2000. Blake Corum headlines a list of players returning who could have been drafted by the NFL last April. Now, it’s August so with sky-high expectations we kick off the 2023 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with this game-by-game preview of the 2023 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbersarticles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for making educated bets, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.
What is SP+
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date. 2023 Preseason SP+ Rankings (ESPN+) Original Explanation (SB Nation)
PAST RESULTS
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.
Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections are amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners over the past 5 seasons (80% correct). Against the spread, the SP+ results improve once there is 2023 game data available to be fed into the model each week. The game week SP+ projections correctly pick the winner against the spread in Michigan games 55% of the time.
Historically in this space, my By the Numbers preseason predictions have been correct 76% of the time straight up, and 52% against the spread. The data are pretty clear also that I have a harder time adjusting away from my preseason notions than the SP+ model does. Once we get into game week predictions, my accuracy only improves by ~4% points once we have seen the Wolverines on the field.
As mentioned above, Michigan has the highest possible preseason expectations after reaching the College Football Playoff, but losing in the semifinals both of the past two seasons. The returning production on offense keeps the Wolverines in the top ten in Offense SP+ rankings. Their jump all the way up to 4th in the preseason Defense SP+ rankings really stands out, though. Together the units combine to place Michigan in the 3rd Overall spot with Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, & Alabama all within 1.1 points of one another.
2023 Regular Season Schedule
vs. East Carolina: 87th Overall, 93rd Offense, 81st Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 37.3
PREDICTION: The non-conference slate is relatively weak for a second consecutive year. Of the three opponents from outside the B1G Ten, the Pirates hold the highest preseason SP+ rating. ECU has enjoyed moderate success in the American Athletic Conference in five years under Mike Houston. While there will be some big plays from both sides, Michigan’s offensive firepower will overwhelm the Pirates near halftime. Michigan 45 ECU 13, 1-0
vs. UNLV: 110th Overall, 100th Offense, 112th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 43.2
PREDICTION: Typically in coach speak, a team makes a significant jump from the first game week to the second. I expect the Wolverines to clean up a handful of near misses from their first game. The underwhelming Rebels will be somewhat unlucky opponents during a much cleaner performance from Michigan. Michigan 52 UNLV 6, 2-0
vs. Bowling Green: 129th Overall, 105th Offense, 130th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 49.0
PREDICTION: According to preseason SP+, the Falcons are the weakest opponent on Michigan’s 2023 regular season schedule. We already know this game has been slotted into the 7:30 PM slot on Big Ten Network, so maybe the night game atmosphere will provide some electricity. I am expecting a big margin of victory here, but we definitely have to keep an eye on whether or not the Wolverines allow themselves to become overconfident and sluggish. Michigan 48 BGSU 7, 3-0
vs. Rutgers: 77th Overall, 99th Offense, 60th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 34.3
PREDICTION: Week 4 brings another opponent ranked in the bottom half of the nation in SP+ as the B1G 10 season kicks off against Rutgers. Consistently, Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights well prepared for the Michigan game, especially his defensive unit. This matchup is highly likely to expose some offensive flaws for the Wolverines that we may not know about yet. In the end, the Wolverines will make the key plays they need in the 2nd half to win by two scores. Michigan 31 Rutgers 16, 4-0
PREDICTION: The first B1G Ten road game lands in Lincoln, Nebraska. New head coach Matt Rhule inherits a program that has some talent on both sides of the ball, but could never find the missing link under Scott Frost. The Wolverines cruised past Nebraska in Ann Arbor 34-3 last year, but I expect this game to look and feel much more like the 2021 edition. The Huskers could be 3-1 or 4-0 heading in and will be looking to make a major program statement at Michigan’s expense. Michigan 34 Nebraska 13, 5-0
PREDICTION: P.J. Fleck has raised the bar for the Golden Gophers’ fans. They are consistently a tough match up in B1G West games, although they haven’t yet broken through and qualified for a trip to Indianapolis. Even if Michigan is firing on all cylinders at this point in the season, a 2nd consecutive B1G Ten road trip against a quality opponent will be a legitimate test for Jim Harbaugh’s crew. The Wolverines are the better team, but they will have to overcome some adversity to win this one in Minneapolis. Michigan 31 Minnesota 14, 6-0
vs. Indiana: 83rd Overall, 71st Offense, 100th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 34.8
PREDICTION: The back half of the regular season starts with Tom Allen’s Hoosiers visiting Ann Arbor. Indiana again finds themselves in a spot on Michigan’s schedule that could present a trap game risk where a rivalry game is looming on deck. These risks were much scarier when the Hoosiers were sporting a defense ranked better than 100th in SP+, but Indiana rebuilt their 2023 roster via the transfer portal so the range of potential outcomes here could be pretty wide.
PREDICTION: Michigan’s final game in the month of October is their third road game in four weeks. It also happens to be a short trip to East Lansing to take on the Spartans in their 2023 super bowl equivalent game. To avoid disaster, the Wolverines will have to eliminate major mistakes and create turnovers versus MSU’s less-talented offense. Getting off to a fast start and taking the Spartan crowd out of the game would be a big help, but if this game stays close then Michigan will be forced to win another dog fight. Michigan 31 Michigan State 20, 8-0
vs. Purdue: 58th Overall, 53rd Offense, 55th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 24.6
PREDICTION: Michigan returns home after the bye week in a rematch of the 2022 B1G Championship game against Purdue. Jeff Brohm left for his alma mater Louisville, so rookie head coach Ryan Walters will lead the Boilermakers. The preseason SP+ ratings place the Boilers almost exactly in the middle of FBS, but I think Walters will overachieve in year one, especially on defense. This game could worry some folks at the Big House because it may stay close all the way into the 4th quarter. Michigan 30 Purdue 17, 9-0
@ Penn State: 6th Overall, 22nd Offense, 5th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.6
PREDICTION: Perhaps the biggest TV scheduling break for the Wolverines comes in Week 11. FOX has already penciled the potential top-ten battle into the noon slot. This allows Michigan to avoid the White Out night game atmosphere at Beaver Stadium. On the field, the Nittany Lions are loaded with talent in many of the same positions as the Wolverines. They have two great running backs, and several great playmakers on defense. For Michigan, this game will be decided by the quarterback comparison. I like the odds that J.J. McCarthy will step up and outshine PSU’s sophomore Drew Allar. Michigan 27 PSU 17, 10-0
PREDICTION: The Wolverines will visit old friend Josh Gattis in Week 12 as Michigan travels to College Park to take on the Terrapins. Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has big-time playmaker ability that can help keep pace with Michigan’s offense. However, he often makes big mistakes in key moments, especially when under pressure. This game will be a great test for the Wolverines’ secondary as they attempt to bottle up a “Speed in Space” offense. Michigan 35 Maryland 21, 11-0
vs. Ohio State: 2nd Overall, 1st Offense, 12th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 0.2
PREDICTION: As far as we can reasonably predict in the preseason, The Game is shaping up to be another clash of B1G Ten & national title contenders. On defense, the Buckeyes will likely continue to improve in year two under coordinator Jim Knowles, but they will again be forced to sell out to try and stop Michigan’s run game. Offensively, OSU boasts the most prolific wide receiver room in the country, and nobody is really that close. Wolverines’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will have to use every coverage look and any creative pressure packages he can conjure to slow the Buckeyes’ first-year starting quarterback: either Kyle McCord or Devin Brown. Michigan 39 Ohio State 33, 12-0
1st Place in B1G Ten East
Sophomore cornerback Will Johnson emerged on the national scene with two interceptions in the B1G Ten Championship game vs. Purdue in 2022. This season he will be expected to lock down nearly every opponent for defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.
Final Score: 45-51, TCU by 6 over Michigan SP+ Projection: Michigan by 9.3 (-15.3) CD Projection: Michigan by 13 (-19)
FIVE FACTORS
CFP SEMIFINAL GAME RECAP vs. TCU
If you had told me that JJ McCarthy’s stat line would be equal to or better than Max Duggan’s at the end of this game, I would have gladly signed myself up for that outcome. While Duggan was 14/29 for 225 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs, McCarthy finished 20/34 for 343 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs (both became lethal pick-sixes). Both QBs added to the rushing attack also, and both found the end zone.
However, we knew the Michigan rushing attack was what mattered most. After the first snap saw Donovan Edwards flash for 54 yards, the Wolverines were unable to punch it into the end zone. Michigan’s 39% Success Rate on run plays was on par with their OSU performance, but the explosiveness was not the same after the first snap. Averaging 4.9 yards per run play was a full yard short of their season average of 5.9 YPP. The frantic game pace, and playing from behind the entire night, also forced Michigan to rely on the pass much more than normal.
Defensively, Michigan surrendered more huge explosive plays in this game than any other. TCU created four plays greater than 30 yards (32, 46, 69, 76) and they got larger as the game progressed. No other game saw more than two such plays against the Wolverines’ defense, and only two of those previous plays came in the 2nd half (48-yard pass by PSU and a 44-yard pass by OSU).
While the secondary accomplished what I had hoped in coverage versus TCU’s talented outside WRs, it was brutal to see too many missed tackles in critical spots. Both the 69-yard run (eventually tackled at the 1 yard line) and the 76-yard touchdown pass in the second half had the potential to be stopped short.
The special teams were another strength throughout the season. While the kicking units were mostly reliable in this game, a 31-yard punt return allowed in the 4th quarter led to a TCU field goal. That one negative blip is counteracted by the career-long 59-yard field goal nailed by Jake Moody on the final snap of the first half. The kick set a Michigan record for longest field goal, as well as the Fiesta Bowl record. A fitting end to a legendary individual career for Moody.
In most of the traditional statistical categories, Michigan finished with a slight edge. But, this game came down to the high-leverage moments, as all close football games do. When all the chips were on the table, Max Duggan and the TCU Horned Frogs were able to answer the challenge. Michigan’s sloppiness down to down forced the Wolverines into a shootout that TCU was certainly more accustomed to. It was quite a feat for Michigan to continue to answer the bell from behind, and they repeatedly showed the heart of champions.
The 2022 season was absolutely another step forward for the Michigan football program. There is a bitter taste that comes with falling short of their National Championship goals, and it’s especially sour to play less than your best in the last game. But, with all that said, this team is one of the greatest Michigan teams of all-time. And, the foundation for optimism heading into 2023 is just as strong as it was heading into this year. Now, the work begins to prepare to take the final few steps to the pinnacle of the sport. Onward!
Final Score: 43-22, Michigan by 21 over Purdue SP+ Projection: Michigan by 24.3 (-3.3) CD Projection: Michigan by 22 (-1)
FIVE FACTORS
B1G CHAMPIONSHIP GAME RECAP vs. Purdue
I am stunned, from a metrics standpoint, that this felt like such a dominant performance. Purdue ran 83 plays (!), compared to just 56 for Michigan. Despite that imbalance in possession, every other metric above is green on the Wolverines’ side of the ledger. This was like the boa constrictor swallowing an ox: it sure looked awkward, but proved to be deadly nonetheless.
Offensively, the stats looked like another slow start for Michigan. More realistically, it’s reflective of Purdue getting the ball first. The teams each had a touchdown drive, each had a punt, and Purdue ended the first quarter on an 11-play field goal drive. By the time halftime arrived, Michigan had constructed two great touchdown drives on just 26 total plays. Once the staff made a couple small tweaks at halftime, the Wolverines’ 2nd half run game took over. Michigan piled up 180 rushing yards in the 2nd half, led by game MVP Donovan Edwards. Edwards finished with 185 yards and a touchdown. JJ McCarthy again made critical plays while the staff cleaned up the run game. McCarthy finished with 3 touchdown passes for the game, including a beautiful strike over the middle to Ronnie Bell in the 4th quarter. Michigan’s first touchdown was also an all-time highlight as freshman tight end Colston Loveland leaped up like an acrobat and high pointed the ball at the pylon.
Michigan’s defensive game plan was structured around mixing zone & man coverages to keep Purdue from hitting explosive touchdown plays. The plan seemed very similar to what Michigan created to contain the Buckeyes last week, just adapted for Purdue. The Wolverines conceded significant yardage, as QB Aidan O’Connell finished with 366 yards passing, and WR Charlie Jones racked up 162 yards receiving. But, after Purdue crossed the Michigan 40-yard line the Wolverines were able to clamp down. On the Boilers’ 7 scoring opportunities, they managed 1 touchdown, 5 field goals, and threw an interception to freshman CB Will Johnson (1 of 2 picks in the game for Johnson). During the pregame I mentioned I wanted to keep an eye on the Michigan linebackers. Junior Colson & Mike Barrett combined for 25 total tackles and a sack to lead the defense in the absence of edge rusher Mike Morris (leg injury).
It was a relatively light day for the special teams. Jake Moody handled his business on PATs, but his 1 field goal attempt was preempted by a Purdue offside penalty, and Michigan then converted on 4th & 1. Brad Robbins’ net punting yardage of 41.0 is his best day since game #6 at Indiana. The punt block unit narrowly missed a block once again. Michigan picked up a “running into the kicker” penalty on the play because the player’s hands missed the ball and contacted the punter’s leg instead.
Soak it in! Seasons like this may feel like the new standard (I hope so). But, stringing success together like this is rare for any program. Enjoy every moment you get with every other M fan you come across. And, remember to praise our players & coaches with honor & respect. ONWARD to the College Football Playoff!
Final Score: 45-23, Michigan by 22 over Ohio State SP+ Projection: Ohio State by 6.0 (+28) CD Projection: Michigan by 3 (+19)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 12 RECAP @ Ohio State
Offensively, this is by far the most explosive performance for Michigan that I have ever tracked (back to 2016), against ANY opponent. The Wolverines’ 2.20 IsoPPP (a metric that measures how explosive just the successful plays are) is 38% higher than the 2nd highest mark in the 2022 season. Michigan’s season-long success on the ground forced the Ohio State defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles, to sell out 100% against the run. JJ McCarthy and Cornelius Johnson kept Michigan afloat in the first half by exploiting that aggressive plan. Then, in the 2nd half, the offensive line and Donovan Edwards left no doubt about who is in control. Edwards streaked for a 75-yard touchdown and an 85-yard touchdown to send the Buckeye fans packing in the 4th quarter.
After Mike MacDonald left in the offseason, Jim Harbaugh reportedly asked candidates how they would plan to stop both the Buckeyes and the Spartans. Today we finally got to see how Jesse Minter answered that question, and why he was selected to be the D Coordinator. Ohio State’s top-ranked pass offense was contained to gathering meaningless yards in the middle of the field. When push came to shove, CJ Stroud and company could not find the end zone. The Buckeyes settled for a meager 3.2 points per trip into scoring position. Ryan Day was also timid on 4th down calls after getting stuffed on an early aggressive decision. Take a bow, Mr. Minter!
Brad Robbins returned to his normal form as he pushed his net punting average back up over 40 yards per kick in this game. That was still 6 yards behind his counterpart from Ohio, but glad to see Robbins back to his old self. Jake Moody converted a 1st quarter attempt as Michigan weathered the storm, but couldn’t quite muster enough juice for a 57-yarder in the 4th quarter.
So now The Rivalry flips in favor of the Maize & Blue. This 2022 version of The Game felt like the inverse of the 2019 version (56-27 OSU). In both cases, the better team won. Both game scores were somewhat close into the 2nd half, but really stretched out late. And, in both cases, the 2nd best team on the field is left wondering whether they can just tweak a few things, or if they need to undergo a major overhaul. ONWARD to the B1G Championship Game!
