Michigan enters the 2023 season as the two-time defending B1G Ten champions. The Wolverines were able to prove the 2021 season was no fluke by traveling to Columbus and pulling away from the Buckeyes for their first road win in The Game since 2000. Blake Corum headlines a list of players returning who could have been drafted by the NFL last April. Now, it’s August so with sky-high expectations we kick off the 2023 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with this game-by-game preview of the 2023 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for making educated bets, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.
What is SP+
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
2023 Preseason SP+ Rankings (ESPN+)
Original Explanation (SB Nation)
PAST RESULTS
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.
Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections are amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners over the past 5 seasons (80% correct). Against the spread, the SP+ results improve once there is 2023 game data available to be fed into the model each week. The game week SP+ projections correctly pick the winner against the spread in Michigan games 55% of the time.
Historically in this space, my By the Numbers preseason predictions have been correct 76% of the time straight up, and 52% against the spread. The data are pretty clear also that I have a harder time adjusting away from my preseason notions than the SP+ model does. Once we get into game week predictions, my accuracy only improves by ~4% points once we have seen the Wolverines on the field.
Predicting Michigan Games in Preseason (2018-22)
| SP+ Preseason Projections | By the Numbers Preseason Predictions | |||
| Straight Up | vs. Spread | Straight Up | vs. Spread | |
| 2018 | 11-1 | 7-5 | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| 2019 | 11-1 | 7-5 | 10-2 | 7-5 |
| 2020 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| 2021 | 7-5 | 1-11 | 8-4 | 4-8 |
| 2022 | 11-1 | 4-8 | 11-1 | 6-6 |
| TOTAL | 43-11, 80% | 22-32, 41% | 41-13, 76% | 28-26, 52% |
Predicting Michigan Games on Game Week (2018-22)
| SP+ Game Week Projections | By the Numbers Game Week Predictions | |||
| Straight Up | vs. Spread | Straight Up | vs. Spread | |
| 2018 | 11-2 | 6-7 | 10-2 | 3-9 |
| 2019 | 13-0 | 7-6 | 11-2 | 10-3 |
| 2020 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 3-3 | 5-1 |
| 2021 | 12-2 | 9-5 | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| 2022 | 12-2 | 7-7 | 13-1 | 7-7 |
| TOTAL | 51-9, 85% | 33-27, 55% | 47-12, 80% | 33-26, 56% |
SP+ Projections & By the Numbers Predictions
Michigan 2023 SP+ Preseason Ranking
Overall – 3rd, 28.6
Offense – 7th, 40.1
Defense – 4th, 11.5
As mentioned above, Michigan has the highest possible preseason expectations after reaching the College Football Playoff, but losing in the semifinals both of the past two seasons. The returning production on offense keeps the Wolverines in the top ten in Offense SP+ rankings. Their jump all the way up to 4th in the preseason Defense SP+ rankings really stands out, though. Together the units combine to place Michigan in the 3rd Overall spot with Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, & Alabama all within 1.1 points of one another.
2023 Regular Season Schedule
vs. East Carolina: 87th Overall, 93rd Offense, 81st Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 37.3
PREDICTION: The non-conference slate is relatively weak for a second consecutive year. Of the three opponents from outside the B1G Ten, the Pirates hold the highest preseason SP+ rating. ECU has enjoyed moderate success in the American Athletic Conference in five years under Mike Houston. While there will be some big plays from both sides, Michigan’s offensive firepower will overwhelm the Pirates near halftime.
Michigan 45 ECU 13, 1-0
vs. UNLV: 110th Overall, 100th Offense, 112th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 43.2
PREDICTION: Typically in coach speak, a team makes a significant jump from the first game week to the second. I expect the Wolverines to clean up a handful of near misses from their first game. The underwhelming Rebels will be somewhat unlucky opponents during a much cleaner performance from Michigan.
Michigan 52 UNLV 6, 2-0
vs. Bowling Green: 129th Overall, 105th Offense, 130th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 49.0
PREDICTION: According to preseason SP+, the Falcons are the weakest opponent on Michigan’s 2023 regular season schedule. We already know this game has been slotted into the 7:30 PM slot on Big Ten Network, so maybe the night game atmosphere will provide some electricity. I am expecting a big margin of victory here, but we definitely have to keep an eye on whether or not the Wolverines allow themselves to become overconfident and sluggish.
Michigan 48 BGSU 7, 3-0
vs. Rutgers: 77th Overall, 99th Offense, 60th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 34.3
PREDICTION: Week 4 brings another opponent ranked in the bottom half of the nation in SP+ as the B1G 10 season kicks off against Rutgers. Consistently, Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights well prepared for the Michigan game, especially his defensive unit. This matchup is highly likely to expose some offensive flaws for the Wolverines that we may not know about yet. In the end, the Wolverines will make the key plays they need in the 2nd half to win by two scores.
Michigan 31 Rutgers 16, 4-0
@ Nebraska: 59th Overall, 68th Offense, 38th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 24.9
PREDICTION: The first B1G Ten road game lands in Lincoln, Nebraska. New head coach Matt Rhule inherits a program that has some talent on both sides of the ball, but could never find the missing link under Scott Frost. The Wolverines cruised past Nebraska in Ann Arbor 34-3 last year, but I expect this game to look and feel much more like the 2021 edition. The Huskers could be 3-1 or 4-0 heading in and will be looking to make a major program statement at Michigan’s expense.
Michigan 34 Nebraska 13, 5-0
@ Minnesota: 27th Overall, 57th Offense, 9th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 15.8
PREDICTION: P.J. Fleck has raised the bar for the Golden Gophers’ fans. They are consistently a tough match up in B1G West games, although they haven’t yet broken through and qualified for a trip to Indianapolis. Even if Michigan is firing on all cylinders at this point in the season, a 2nd consecutive B1G Ten road trip against a quality opponent will be a legitimate test for Jim Harbaugh’s crew. The Wolverines are the better team, but they will have to overcome some adversity to win this one in Minneapolis.
Michigan 31 Minnesota 14, 6-0
vs. Indiana: 83rd Overall, 71st Offense, 100th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 34.8
PREDICTION: The back half of the regular season starts with Tom Allen’s Hoosiers visiting Ann Arbor. Indiana again finds themselves in a spot on Michigan’s schedule that could present a trap game risk where a rivalry game is looming on deck. These risks were much scarier when the Hoosiers were sporting a defense ranked better than 100th in SP+, but Indiana rebuilt their 2023 roster via the transfer portal so the range of potential outcomes here could be pretty wide.
Michigan 42 Indiana 14, 7-0
@ Michigan State: 46th Overall, 62nd Offense, 30th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 22.3
PREDICTION: Michigan’s final game in the month of October is their third road game in four weeks. It also happens to be a short trip to East Lansing to take on the Spartans in their 2023 super bowl equivalent game. To avoid disaster, the Wolverines will have to eliminate major mistakes and create turnovers versus MSU’s less-talented offense. Getting off to a fast start and taking the Spartan crowd out of the game would be a big help, but if this game stays close then Michigan will be forced to win another dog fight.
Michigan 31 Michigan State 20, 8-0
vs. Purdue: 58th Overall, 53rd Offense, 55th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 24.6
PREDICTION: Michigan returns home after the bye week in a rematch of the 2022 B1G Championship game against Purdue. Jeff Brohm left for his alma mater Louisville, so rookie head coach Ryan Walters will lead the Boilermakers. The preseason SP+ ratings place the Boilers almost exactly in the middle of FBS, but I think Walters will overachieve in year one, especially on defense. This game could worry some folks at the Big House because it may stay close all the way into the 4th quarter.
Michigan 30 Purdue 17, 9-0
@ Penn State: 6th Overall, 22nd Offense, 5th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.6
PREDICTION: Perhaps the biggest TV scheduling break for the Wolverines comes in Week 11. FOX has already penciled the potential top-ten battle into the noon slot. This allows Michigan to avoid the White Out night game atmosphere at Beaver Stadium. On the field, the Nittany Lions are loaded with talent in many of the same positions as the Wolverines. They have two great running backs, and several great playmakers on defense. For Michigan, this game will be decided by the quarterback comparison. I like the odds that J.J. McCarthy will step up and outshine PSU’s sophomore Drew Allar.
Michigan 27 PSU 17, 10-0
@ Maryland: 41st Overall, 47th Offense, 27th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 19.3
PREDICTION: The Wolverines will visit old friend Josh Gattis in Week 12 as Michigan travels to College Park to take on the Terrapins. Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has big-time playmaker ability that can help keep pace with Michigan’s offense. However, he often makes big mistakes in key moments, especially when under pressure. This game will be a great test for the Wolverines’ secondary as they attempt to bottle up a “Speed in Space” offense.
Michigan 35 Maryland 21, 11-0
vs. Ohio State: 2nd Overall, 1st Offense, 12th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 0.2
PREDICTION: As far as we can reasonably predict in the preseason, The Game is shaping up to be another clash of B1G Ten & national title contenders. On defense, the Buckeyes will likely continue to improve in year two under coordinator Jim Knowles, but they will again be forced to sell out to try and stop Michigan’s run game. Offensively, OSU boasts the most prolific wide receiver room in the country, and nobody is really that close. Wolverines’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will have to use every coverage look and any creative pressure packages he can conjure to slow the Buckeyes’ first-year starting quarterback: either Kyle McCord or Devin Brown.
Michigan 39 Ohio State 33, 12-0
1st Place in B1G Ten East
Sophomore cornerback Will Johnson emerged on the national scene with two interceptions in the B1G Ten Championship game vs. Purdue in 2022. This season he will be expected to lock down nearly every opponent for defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.
