Author: Clint Derringer

@clint_derringer on Twitter U-M B.A. Sport Management & Communications ‘05 U-M M.S. Program & Project Management ‘18
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Michigan 31 Bowling Green 6 – Game 3 Recap

GAME 3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 31-6, Michigan by 25 over BGSU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 45.1 (-20.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-8)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 3 RECAP vs. Bowling Green

Do you want the good news first, or the bad news? For the third consecutive week, Michigan had one phase of the offense humming, but struggled in the other. JJ McCarthy threw 3 interceptions, all of them on scoring opportunities inside Bowling Green’s 40-yard line. In addition to the turnovers, he also missed a few open receivers with his eyes, and a couple with his arm. While the passing attack struggled, Michigan returned to sky-high success rate on the ground (68%). Blake Corum kicked the game off with a 54-yard scamper, and Donovan Edwards also averaged 5.6 yards per carry for the game.

The defense was physically dominant again for the third consecutive week. On a night that Michigan turned the ball over four times, the shut out potential was lost early. However, the pass rush and ball-hawking secondary combined to create three turnovers to help balance the scales. One particular highlight was Mason Graham pressuring the Falcons’ quarterback on a screen pass that was picked off by tackle Kris Jenkins. Jenkins had his eyes on the end zone, but was dragged down just short. Corum pounded the ball in for Michigan’s third touchdown.

Special teams was uncharacteristically sloppy as well. The most costly event was a fumbled pooch kick by Max Bredeson after Bowling Green’s first field goal. That quick change resulted in the second score allowed by the defensive unit, but they would not allow any more. On the positive side of the ledger, James Turner looks like he’s settled in as the place kicker. Also, both Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris were sure-handed while fielding bouncing punts.

This was a text book example of an ugly win. The Wolverines were able to win comfortably based on their defensive line dominance and creating explosive offensive plays. This might be the ugliest of the three games we’ve seen in 2023, but the concern is that we still haven’t seen a complete performance from Michigan. The next test from Rutgers will force the Wolverines to put all the pieces together. The Scarlet Knights come to Ann Arbor next week with a 3-0 record. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 3 vs. Bowling Green

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines narrowly missed a shut out for the second consecutive week.  Michigan cruised to a 35-7 victory behind pinpoint accuracy from JJ McCarthy, and physical dominance by the defensive line. 

NEXT UP: vs. Bowling Green: SP+ 113th, -15.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 45.1, Michigan Win Probability 100%

Rinse and repeat for the non-conference schedule.  The SP+ model again picks the Wolverines by over 40 points, and predicts the opponent to stay under a full touchdown score.  This week the model produced a 49-4 prediction.

Michigan Offense (14th) vs. BGSU Defense (121st) 

The Wolverines have two main objectives offensively in Week 3: maintain the passing game momentum & smooth out the run game execution and timing.  JJ McCarthy only has 7 incompletions through two games, compared to 5 touchdown connections with Roman Wilson.  The key run game metrics for this week will be related to explosiveness.  If we see a significant uptick on yards per play and in EPA per play, we can infer the offensive line has cleaned up assignments, the wide receivers are engaging better on the perimeter, and the running backs are in sync.

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. BGSU Offense (94th)

This matchup pits one of Michigan’s greatest strengths, the defensive line, directly against one of Bowling Green’s greatest weaknesses, their offensive line.  That imbalance in the trenches might make it difficult to evaluate other individual players, or the back seven position groups.  We can watch out for continued improvement from the edge players.  I would love to see Braden McGregor, Josiah Stewart, Derrick Moore, & Jaylen Harrell continue to fill the stat sheet with TFLs and sacks.  Ideally, those plays would also come after beating the block of an offensive lineman.  Last week, a handful of TFLS were the direct result of Wolverines who were totally unblocked.

PREDICTION: Sherrone Moore gets his turn to add Head Coach duties to his plate this week.  While I am happy for Coach Moore to showcase his talent, I am very much looking forward to putting the Harbaugh suspension behind us and settling into normal coaching staff roles.  Jesse Minter’s defense has flirted with a shutout in both of Michigan’s first two games.  We might be trying to protect a goose egg in this one as well.

BGSU drew praise from Jim Harbaugh this week related to their passing concepts.  However, I think they will rely much more on their running game in order to keep the clock churning.  The Falcons are a team who utilizes hurry up and temp the least.  It makes sense for them to try and reduce the number of drives and plays in order to keep this game close.   
Michigan 36 BGSU 3 (PRESEASON Michigan 48 BGSU 7)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/13/23, 2-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 27.7
    • SP+ Offense: 14th (↓3), 38.2
    • SP+ Defense: 3rd (same), 10.6
    • SP+ Special Teams: 40th (↑4), 0.1
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1458
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1533
  • CFP Rank: N/A
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Michigan 35 UNLV 7 – Game 2 Recap

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 35-7, Michigan by 28 over UNLV
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 40.2 (-12.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 33 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 2 RECAP vs. UNLV

JJ McCarthy was able to match his Week 1 performance going 22-25 through the air for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. Eventually, the Wolverines nudged their rushing total up to 179 yards, but there is still a feel that they have another gear or maybe two gears they haven’t hit yet in 2023. We did see the Wolverines add the quarterback to the running attack. McCarthy had a 17 yard run on a keeper to set up a Blake Corum touchdown.

The most entertainment value in the 2nd half came from another shutout watch for Jesse Minter’s defense. Michigan set up shop in the UNLV backfield and finished with 10 tackles for loss. Perhaps the most valuable part of the game was adding snaps and reps for the players down the depth chart. The Wolverines were again without Rod Moore and Will Johnson for most of this game as a precaution. Today Quinten Johnson made some impact from the safety position, especially as a blitzer.

James Turner didn’t get any field goal opportunities, but was a perfect 5-for-5 on extra points. In the return game, Semaj Morgan and Kalel Mullings both had 20+ yard kick returns, and we saw a flash of explosiveness from Tyler Morris on punt return. Morris made his first appearance this week after sitting out the opener with a minor injury, and also made a great 3rd down catch in the first half.

Hard to find a whole lot to nit pick in Michigan’s second consecutive solid performance. The defense might be more dominant than 2022 if the pass rush continues to ascend for the defensive line. JJ McCarthy is playing nearly perfectly, albeit versus two lackluster defensive units. Once Michigan settles on their offensive line starters, and Blake Corum knocks the rest of the recovery rust off, the Wolverines seem primed to unleash their full potential in the Big Ten season. Onward!

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By the Numbers: Game 2 vs. UNLV

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan nearly shut out the Pirates of East Carolina, 30-3.  JJ McCarthy had nearly as many touchdown passes (3) as he had incompletions (4), and the defense was dominant despite missing a few stars in the secondary. 

NEXT UP: vs. UNLV: SP+ 93rd, -9.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 40.2, Michigan Win Probability 99%
While the Wolverines stayed at #3 in the SP+ for Week 2, the Rebels moved up 17 spots on the back of their 44-14 victory over the FCS Bryant Bulldogs.  Bill Connelly’s model spit out a Week 2 Michigan prediction (M 45-5) that is almost exactly the same as the Week 1 prediction (45-4).

Michigan Offense (11th) vs. UNLV Defense (100th) 

The Wolverines will look to maintain balance between run & pass play calling in 2023.  Michigan was quicker to adjust the game plan last week when ECU clearly sold out to stop the run.  Kirk Campbell turned the reins over to JJ McCarthy as soon a field position allowed on the second possession.  In addition to utilizing multiple receiving targets, Michigan will look to test the edge more frequently this week.  This should provide more points of comparison at both tackle positions.  We expect to see two new starters against UNLV: Trente Jones and Ladarius Henderson. 

The Rebels’ base defense is a  3-3-5, similar to what Michigan saw recently versus TCU and East Carolina.  While I expect UNLV will try to duplicate the TCU/ECU game plan that held Michigan’s run game in check, I don’t believe they will be successful to the same degree.  This UNLV unit just gave up 400+ yards of offense to FCS-level Bryant in Week 1.  Despite ceding all that yardage, UNLV managed to tighten up inside their own 40 yard line and only allowed 14 points.  For Michigan, the key metric this week will be points per scoring opportunity.

Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. UNLV Offense (89th)

UNLV runs an uncommon system called the Go-Go offense.  My oversimplified description: it’s a shotgun two-back system that relies heavily on option-style runs that include the quarterback.  While they will churn up most of their yardage on the ground, the passing game goes for the jugular by pushing the ball vertically on sporadic deep shots.  By now you probably have heard that Saturday also marks the return of Ricky White, the former Spartan wide receiver who showed loads of deep ball prowess in the Big House in 2020.  

While Michigan will have a talent advantage in the trenches, I am most encouraged by how clean the three top linebackers played last week.  Chris Partridge’s group will need to be sound in their assignments and run fits to stop this rushing attack.  The Wolverines may also welcome the return of corner Will Johnson and possibly safety Rod Moore to extend a talent advantage on the perimeter.

PREDICTION: Jay Harbaugh will assume head coaching duties in the first half, and Mike Hart will take over in the second half while Jim Harbaugh serves the second of his three-game suspension Saturday.  Michigan also adds offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore back to the sideline after a one game suspension.  Switching head coaches mid-game seems like an unnecessary risk to me.  However, I am confident the return of Moore as a play caller and as the OL coach will make Game 2 a net positive for the staff. 

UNLV started the 2023 season ranked 110th overall in SP+.  By the end of this season, I think this team may get up near the top half of FBS teams.  The Rebels will be interesting to watch all season, but they are not ready defensively to stop a balanced Michigan attack. 

I am reducing my expected points scored from my preseason estimate due to the new clock rules.  Both teams will feature plenty of run plays, and we might see both teams run fewer than 70 total plays in the game.  It’s critical to avoid huge mistakes on special teams and stay even in turnover margin to remove any thoughts of an upset.  I expect Michigan will almost cover the 36-point spread, but not quite.  
Michigan 40 UNLV 7 (PRESEASON Michigan 52 UNLV 6)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/05/23, 1-0

  • SP+ Overall: 3rd (same), 28.0
    • SP+ Offense: 11th (↓4), 38.3
    • SP+ Defense: 3rd (↑1), 10.4
    • SP+ Special Teams: 40th, 0.1
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1485
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1534
  • CFP Rank: N/A
2023 Michigan Wolverine Football Depth Chart – Game 2 vs UNLV
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Michigan 30 East Carolina 3 – Game 1 Recap

GAME 1 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 30-3, Michigan by 27 over ECU
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 40.9 (-13.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 32 (-5)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 1 RECAP vs. ECU

Offensively, the number that stands out is 60(%).  Michigan called pass plays 60% of the snaps that were non-garbage time against ECU.  That clarifies an increased focus on letting J.J. McCarthy have more control over the game.  He stepped up to the challenge by going 26-of-30 for 280 yards and connecting for 3 touchdowns to Roman Wilson.  There were hiccups, as we expected, with the offense in Sherrone Moore’s absence.  However, I expect that will smooth out when Moore returns and the offensive line continues to gel together.

The defense was robbed of a shutout on the final snap of the game.  ECU settled for the saddest possible 33-yard field goal to get onto the scoreboard with 0:05 left in the game.  The Wolverines gained a lot of game experience for their younger players, especially in the secondary.  With Will Johnson and Rod Moore both sitting out, Keon Sabb and Jyaire Hill stepped in admirably.  Kenneth Grant showed that he will be adding value to the interior pass rush.  He was in the face of ECU quarterback Mason Garcia to force an interception by Mike Sainristil.

2023_01__UM30_ECU3_PSC_-1

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There was almost no way to sustain the kicking game level we’re used to from the Jake Moody / Brad Robbins era.  James Turner’s nerves got the best of him as he missed an extra point.  However, he showed plenty of leg while he nailed a 50-yard field goal in the first half, and missed a 53-yarder wide in the second half.

Overall, I didn’t see anything that made me change my expectations for the early portion of the season.  It was very encouraging to see an offensive commitment to the pass game, and we know the run game will sort itself out to some extent.  Other than the players who sat out, I think the Wolverines managed to stay healthy.  Next, Michigan will look to play a cleaner game under two different acting head coaches when they take on UNLV for Game #2.  Onward!