Clint Derringer – Page 14 – UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball

November 10, 2021November 10, 2021

By the Numbers: Game 10 @ Penn State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan rolled in ho-hum fashion over the Indiana Hoosiers. The Wolverines came out ahead in all of the Five Factors metrics as they collected a 29-7 victory.

NEXT UP: vs. Penn State: 11th, 17.5

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 1.8, Michigan Win Probability 54%
The Wolverines are traveling to Happy Valley in search of their first road victory over Penn State since Jim Harbaugh’s first season in Ann Arbor in 2015. It is important to note that SP+ does not adjust for injuries. Some key defenders are missing for PSU, and Michigan may be down a handful of offensive weapons too.

Michigan Offense (17th) vs. Penn State Defense (7th)

One key injury in this matchup is on the NIttany Lion interior defensive line: PJ Mustipher. Before Mustipher got hurt, Penn State held opposing rushing attacks to 3.0 yards per carry in 5 out of their first 6 games. After the injury, Illinois ran for 5.3 yards per carry, and Ohio State ran for 5.1 per carry.

This should be good news to Josh Gattis’ ears, although Blake Corum will be limited if he’s even available at all. I am sure the broadcast narrative will highlight red zone efficiency, and Penn State is another great red zone defense. Michigan may start looking for opportunities to strike from 25-35 yards away through the air.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Penn State Offense (47th)

On paper, Michigan’s defensive unit has the most lopsided advantage over the PSU offense. This all starts and ends with the Penn State offensive line woes. They are a mediocre pass protecting unit, and have been abysmal in the run game.

Another handicap for the Nittany Lions is the health of senior QB Sean Clifford. Clifford has played well even after being injured against Iowa. However, James Franklin and his staff have seen what life looks like with Clifford on the bench, and they have since chosen to remove Clifford’s ability to run out the game plan for the most part.

This matchup will be analogous to a heavyweight fight of big-play haymakers between Clifford & Jahan Dotson versus Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, and Dax Hill. We could be saying “he who laughs last, laughs loudest” during the post-game.

PREDICTION: Even way back in the preseason, I expected Michigan would have their issues pretty much worked out by November. I predicted the Wolverines to snap their losing skid in Happy Valley back then, and neither team has done anything to make me think any differently now.

I do think Penn State will play well, and this will be a tight game. We could be looking at a second half reminiscent of the 2019 game. The defense will strangle the Nittany Lion offense for long stretches, but Michigan cannot let Clifford and Dotson make the big plays in high leverage moments late in this game, a la 2019 KJ Hamler.
Michigan 27 Penn State 21 (PRESEASON Michigan 20 Penn State 16)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/09/21), 8-1

SP+ Overall: 5th (same), 21.8
SP+ Offense: 17th (↑1), 36.1
SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 14.9
SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑1), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (same), 1,072

Coaches’ Poll: 8th (↓2), 1,099

CFP Rank: 6th (↑1)

November 6, 2021November 7, 2021

Michigan 29 Indiana 7 – Game 9 Recap

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 29-7, Michigan by 22 over Indiana
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 17.9 (+4.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 22 (✅)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Indiana

That was a clean sweep on the Five Factors for Michigan. Those games usually result in a ho-hum response from the media and from fans. However, that is exactly what this team needed. They played to their strengths, tried to answer a few questions from previous weeks, and rolled to a 3-score victory.

Offensively, Hassan Haskins stepped forward to carry this team once again. Haskins had 168 yards on 27 carries, both career highs. H2 was without his normal running mate, as Blake Corum only played a handful of snaps before retreating to the locker room for further evaluation of an injury.

Also, Cade McNamara showed that he is still the right QB to lead this unit. He completed 10-of-18 passes for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns. Josh Gattis clearly wanted to return to a balanced approach with his run game and passing attack. The play calls were 50/50, and yardage was almost equal as well.

The Michigan defense was back to being dominant for large swaths of this game. Outside of one drive where Indiana QB Donaven McCulley broke tackles and scrambled for big plays, the Wolverines really suffocated the Hoosiers. Indiana finished with just 195 total net yards for the whole game. While the defense bottled up the IU rushing attack (average 0.036 Expected Points Added per play), the Wolverines really attacked Indiana when they dropped back to pass. The Hoosiers’ pass plays averaged a negative EPA on the day, -0.129.

Jake Moody led the special teams unit, and cashed in another 3 field goals today. While his kickoffs were high and short, Indiana wanted no part of testing the coverage units. The return game was particularly impacted by injuries in this one. AJ Henning and Andrel Anthony both were dinged up in addition to Corum. DJ Turner filled in as the next man up returning punts. Onward to Happy Valley!

2021-09-UM-29-Indiana-7-Final-Stats Download

November 3, 2021November 3, 2021

By the Numbers: Game 9 vs. Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines let a 16-point lead slip through their fingers in East Lansing during a painful 37-33 loss to the Spartans. Michigan did many positive things against Michigan State, but just couldn’t come up with the critical plays in high leverage moments.

NEXT UP: vs. Indiana: 61st, 5.3

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 17.9, Michigan Win Probability 85%
Indiana has crashed back to earth after living a charmed existence in 2020 as everyone’s favorite COVID team. QB Michael Penix can’t stay healthy, and the Hoosiers have also lost their best defensive coverage guys to injury.

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Indiana Defense (41st)

SP+ does not adjust for injured players who are missing, and that is the story of Indiana’s defense. Their defensive backfield looked elite coming into the 2021 season. However, they are hobbled by major injuries, most notably to cornerback Taiwan Mullen. This matchup feels similar to how the Wolverines lined up with the Washington Huskies back in Week 2, except Indiana has lost their best cover guys. I will be concerned if Michigan struggles for more than a series or two with their starters in this game.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Indiana Offense (74th)

Mike MacDonald and the Wolverine defense need a get right game. The Hoosiers should be just what the doctor ordered. Former Michigan backup QB Nick Sheridan has been uninspiring as offensive coordinator in Bloomington. I don’t believe Indiana will be able to protect their own backup QB Donaven McCulley. Indiana has come up with troublesome game plans in years past, though. I expect the Hoosiers will attempt to exploit the Wolverines’ alignment issues versus tempo that proved to be fatal last week in East Lansing.

PREDICTION: Michigan will be challenged again to focus on the task at hand without looking ahead. Nearly every matchup on paper is a sizable advantage for the Wolverines, and they are 3 touchdown favorites. The team will not be able to disprove their most vocal doubters against this under-manned Hoosier team. The goal must be to clean up the personnel issues on defense. We also want to see confidence continue to build on offense. Cade McNamara is coming off his best performance. Now, Michigan fans would love to see a full, completely balanced performance from both the passing and rushing attacks. I believe we’ll see continued success in terms of yardage, but this probably won’t be the game where Josh Gattis answers the red zone touchdown questions.

Michigan 32 Indiana 10 (PRESEASON Michigan 25 Indiana 17)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/31/21), 7-1

SP+ Overall: 5th (↑2), 20.8
SP+ Offense: 22nd 18th (same), 35.9
SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.7
SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (same), 0.6

AP Poll: 9th (↓3), 1,048

Coaches’ Poll: 10th (↓4), 1,050

CFP Rank: 7th

October 30, 2021November 1, 2021

Michigan 33 MSU 37 – Game 8 Recap

GAME 8 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 33-37, MSU by 4 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 3.5 (-7.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 10 (-14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 8 RECAP @ MSU

It was incomplete. All of it. Any facet of this game that you look at, there is a lot more good to talk about than there is bad. But, Michigan didn’t finish. The game plans on both sides were solid, but didn’t adjust once the Wolverines were up 16 in the 3rd quarter and MSU had to empty the clip.

Offensively, Michigan got off to a rocket start by surprising everyone with a first-half passing clinic. Andrel Anthony burst onto the scene with a 93-yard touchdown, and Cade McNamara was pin-point accurate.

When the Wolverines pushed it to a 30-14 lead, I assumed Michigan would salt this away. The only questions was whether Haskins or Corum would be the one hammering. Somehow, that didn’t happen. This was the first negative EPA run performance of 2021, and it deserves a much closer look. There would be a lot on this film to be excited about offensively, if Paul B. was on the bus back to Ann Arbor. But…he ain’t.

It was sickening to listen to the FOX broadcast team highlight Mel Tucker’s pregame quote: “…body blows…In the championship round, we think they’ll flinch…” It was sickening because it was happening in front of our eyes. Defenders got out of the run gaps, and Kenneth Walker made us all pay. Interceptions were there to be had, yet hit the turf instead.

When a 2nd half lead evaporates, I always want to see under the hood on defense first. Regardless of the detail, the Wolverines could not limit the big plays the way Indiana and Nebraska did previously to the Spartans.

On special teams, Jake Moody gets a huge tip of my cap. He was 4/4 on field goals, including repeatedly hitting them at the end of the 1st half when Mel Tucker tried to ice him with all three timeouts. Additionally, the MSU return game was satisfied with Fair Catches and Touchbacks. Brad Robbins mishandled a punt snap (yikes!), but the defense managed to cover for him.

AJ Henning was solid returning the ball, but really hurt field position in the 2nd quarter when he let a punt bounce and roll. Still work to do in all three phases.

There will be a lot of bluster and big talking this week. Michigan needs to get right against Indiana and play well in all 3 phases. No Michigan team should ever shrivel in the face of adversity. Still a lot to play for. We’ll see how this version of the Wolverines manages to dig deep. Onward!

2021-08-MSU-37-UM-33-Final-Stats Download

October 27, 2021October 28, 2021

By the Numbers: Game 8 @ Michigan State

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan handled their business by avoiding the classic trap game coming out of the bye week. The Wolverines dominated statistically en route to a 33-7 victory.

NEXT UP: vs. Michigan State: 21st, 13.6

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 3.5, Michigan Win Probability 58%
There was a mild flare up online when the line for this game settled at Michigan (-4.5). For yet another week, the Vegas spread is very close to the SP+ projection. Through 7 games in 2021, Bill Connelly’s model is 5-2 against the opening spread in Michigan games.

Michigan Offense (18th) vs. Michigan State Defense (12th)

When Michigan has the ball, this game will feel like the prototypical U-M vs MSU rivalry game. The Wolverines are going to run the ball inside and out, and the Spartans are well aware of this. For large portions of the contest I am sure this will be a gritty battle in the trenches. I have very little doubt that Josh Gattis will basically say “here we come, try to stop us” as a base strategy. Despite all that, the game may largely be decided on the handful of plays that Michigan State sells out to stop the Wolverine running game, and Josh Gattis dials up his counterattack. Cade McNamara must be efficient and seize those opportunities for big chunk plays down the field.

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Michigan State Offense (53rd)

Michigan State’s offense has proven to be explosive in 2021. Kenneth Walker has been electric running the ball. Payton Thorne connects consistently with Jayden Reed and Jaylen Nailor on the outside. Those two WRs have combined for 11 touchdown receptions through 7 games. However, both Nebraska and Indiana were able to effectively bottle up this Spartan offense. Michigan State managed to gain just 254 total yards in Week 4 versus the Cornhuskers. The Hoosiers’ defense fared even better, holding MSU to only 241 total yards just before the Spartans took their week off. The challenge for Mike MacDonald will be keeping all of the Spartan playmakers inside and in front of his defenders. If the Wolverines’ DBs don’t get beat over the top, and can avoid giving away conversions via penalty, I trust Michigan’s edge defenders to keep Walker contained inside.

PREDICTION: The 2021 battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy is the most anticipated chapter of the game in my lifetime. Both teams are undefeated heading into the game for the first time since 1999, when UMGoBlue.com first appeared on dial up internet. In many ways, these teams are very similar. As is usually the case, Saturday’s victor will be decided by which players step up in key moments and can deliver big time plays. All things considered, I believe Michigan will wear down the Spartans and take control of this game in the 2nd half. Prepare yourself for an emotional rollercoaster as Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines are trading haymakers (figuratively of course) with Mel Tucker’s Spartans.
Michigan 31 Michigan State 21 (same as preseason)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/24/21), 7-0

SP+ Overall: 7th (↑1), 19.6
SP+ Offense: 22nd 18th (↓4), 34.9
SP+ Defense: 8th (↑1), 15.9
SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 0.6

AP Poll: 6th (same), 1,270

Coaches’ Poll: 6th (same), 1,313

CFP Rank: N/A