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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #01 – 10/31/2022 – Basketball Is Back

Yeah, it’s time for college basketball again.  Sure, it’s another exciting season for the football team, but basketball games start this week.  Let’s check out this season’s team.

Here’s my traditional standard description of this weekly column:

Yeah, it’s time for University of Michigan men’s basketball, and this is the place to read all about it: “Nothing But ‘Net” on UMGoBlue.com.  Check back every Monday morning between now and the end of the season for a quick, concise wrap-up of the previous week, and a look ahead at the upcoming week, all in one easy-to-read article.

As always here at UMGoBlue.com, the perspective is “by fans, for fans”.  I’m a fan (since 1974), and I go to all the home games, and watch/listen to all the away games.  I don’t have any special access (other than being an usher in Sections 209-210), I don’t go to the press conferences, and I don’t interview high school recruits.   I see the same things you do, and write about them as a fan.

Once again, it was a very busy off-season, with lots of surprises and changes.  Let’s get to it.

Executive Summary

The big question: how good is Michigan going to be this season?

The big answer: pretty good, but it’s hard to be sure.  There have been a lot of changes, and the era of the Transfer Portal and NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) money makes things really unpredictable.  Michigan is ranked #22 in the AP Top-25 Preseason poll.

What’s New?

There are lots of changes to the roster from last season:

  • Players Leaving:
    • 5 seniors graduated
    • 3 players transferred
    • 2 players left for the NBA Draft
  • Players Arriving:
    • 5 incoming freshmen
    • 3 incoming transfer players
    • 1 new “practice squad” player

Graduating Seniors

Graduating seniors are a natural part of the college sports experience.  In the current environment of players leaving early for the NBA, or transferring to other schools, it is getting to be a rare event when a player stays all 4 years at the same school and graduates.  While it is sad to see players leave after having watched them for 4 years, it is really something to be celebrated and appreciated.  Here are the 5 seniors who graduated:

  • Adrien Nuñez – Adrien was on the team for 4 years, but he never did play much, and when he did, he didn’t contribute much.  He will not be missed, but we wish him well.
  • Brandon Wade – Brandon was always just a “practice squad” player.  He will not be missed, but we wish him well.
  • DeVante’ Jones – DeVante’ transferred to Michigan from Coastal Carolina, and only played for 1 year.  He did a fine job, and he will be missed.
  • Jaron Faulds – Jaron was mostly a “practice squad” player, but he did contribute more than a typical scrub.  He will be missed, and we wish him well.
  • Eli Brooks – Eli played at Michigan for 5 seasons, thanks to the “COVID-19 year” rule.  He was a key member of the team for several years, and he will be missed very much.

Players Who Transferred

Three players transferred to other schools after last season.  They are:

  • Frankie Collins – Frankie had a very promising freshman season at Michigan, and he appeared to be in the mix for the starting job at point guard.  Then he decided to transfer to Arizona State, apparently because Michigan took a grad transfer point guard.  More on that below.  He will be missed.
  • Zeb Jackson – Zeb played at Michigan for 2 years, but never very much.  He had some exciting moments, but he also sat on the bench a lot.  On social media, he appeared to be one of the most committed and enthusiastic players on the team, so his decision to transfer was quite a surprise.  He decided to transfer to Virginia Commonwealth (VCU).  He might be missed.

Players Who Left For The NBA Draft

Two players left the team to enter the NBA Draft.  They are:

  • Moussa Diabate – Moussa was a rare “one and done” for Michigan.  He was erratic in his only season at UM, hot one game and non-existent the next.  I didn’t think that he showed enough in his one season to get drafted, but the L.A. Clippers disagreed, and selected him in the 2nd round (43rd overall) of the draft.
  • Caleb Houstan – Caleb was another rare “one and done” for Michigan.  He had a decent freshman season at UM, with a few impressive games and more than a few “empty” games.  Once again, I didn’t think that he showed enough in his one season to get drafted, but the Orlando Magic took a chance on him, drafting him in the 2nd round (32nd overall) of the draft.

Incoming Freshmen

Last year, Michigan had the #2 recruiting class in the nation.  This year, the recruiting class isn’t quite as highly ranked, but it’s still pretty good: #13.  There are 5 incoming freshman players this season:

  • Gregg Glenn III #23 (6’7”, 230 pounds, F) – Gregg is a 4-star power forward, the #18 power forward in his class.  He’s a decent shooter, but he can also take the ball to the rim.  He should get a fair amount of minutes for a freshman.
  • Jett Howard #13 (6’8”, 215 pounds, G) – Jett is a 4-star shooting guard/small forward (“wing”).  He’s the #40 recruit (#15 small forward) in his class.  Yes, he’s the younger son of Michigan head coach Juwan Howard, and the younger brother of Jace Howard.  He’s one of the better outside shooters on the team, and he’ll be an integral part of UM’s lineup.
  • Youssef Khayat #24 (6’9”, 195 pounds, F) – Youssef is not ranked, since he’s from Lebanon.  I haven’t heard much about his basketball skills other than “good defender”.  He may be redshirted this season.
  • Dug McDaniel #0 (5’11”, 160 pounds, G) – Dug is a 4-star point guard, the #12 point guard in his class.  “Dug” is his nickname, his given name is Knasir.  Scouting says that he’s a “pass first” point guard with a so-so outside shot, and a good defender.  He should get a lot of playing time, since there’s only one other point guard on the team (see below).
  • Tarris Reed, Jr. #32 (6’10”, 260 pounds, F) – Tarris is a 4-star center/forward, the #7 center in his class, #35 overall.  He’s the highest ranked recruit in this season’s freshman class.  He’s a “banger” at center, with a decent shot and good rebounding and defensive instincts.  He should play a lot, backing up Hunter Dickinson.

This is a solid recruiting class.  We’ll see how they fit in with the rest of the team.

Incoming Transfer Players

Last season, Coach Howard went to the transfer portal and picked up a very talented player who played for one season at Michigan: DeVante’ Jones.  This season, he picked up three transfer players, including another one-year player to be the main point guard:

  • Joey Baker #15 (6’7”, 205 pounds, G) – Joey transferred to Michigan from Duke, where he played for 4 seasons.  He was lightly used (4.1 points/game), and decided to transfer to Michigan for his “COVID-19 year”.  He’ll have one year of eligibility.
  • Jaelin Llewellyn #3 (6’2”, 190 pounds, G) – Jaelin transferred to Michigan from Princeton, where he was on the team for 4 seasons.  Since the Ivy League cancelled the entire 2020-2021 season, he only played for 3 seasons at Princeton.  In theory, he should have 2 years of eligibility left, but I only expect him to play 1 season at Michigan.  He’s going to be the main point guard this season.  Word is that he’s a good shooter and passer.
  • Cooper Smith #45 (6’1”, 175 pounds, G) – Cooper transferred to Michigan from Kalamazoo College.  He’s a preferred walk on.  Apparently, he missed his entire freshman season at Kalamazoo due to a back injury, so he should have 4 years of eligibility (maybe even 5, due to COVID-19), but he’s listed as having sophomore eligibility.  His bio says that he’s still recuperating from back surgery, so I don’t know if he’ll practice/play this season at all.  If he does practice/play, I expect him to be on the “practice squad”.

New Practice Squad Players

There’s only one new player on the practice squad:

  • Jackson Selvala #34 (6’7”, 215 pounds, F) – Jackson was a team manager who walked on as a player.  He’s a senior in school, but he has 4 years of eligibility.  Looking at his bio, he was quite the player in high school.  He should be a valuable member of the practice squad, and he might even get to play a couple minutes in blowout games.

Who’s Coming Back?

Michigan is a very young team this season, with a lot of new faces.  However, there is a solid core of returning players.

Let’s look at the returning players on the team:

Freshman Eligibility

  • Will Tschetter #42 (6’8”, 240 pounds, F) – Will was the #1 cheerleader on the bench last season, as he was voluntarily redshirted.  It’s hard to predict how much playing time he’ll get this season.

Sophomore Eligibility

  • Isaiah Barnes #11 (6’7”, 200 pounds, G) – Isaiah actually played in 2 games last season, but he applied for a redshirt year.  I don’t know if he was awarded it or not, but he’s listed as sophomore eligibility right now.  Once again, since I haven’t seen him play, it’s hard to predict how much playing time he’ll get this season.
  • Kobe Bufkin #2 (6’4”, 195 pounds, G) – Kobe played in 28 games as a freshman, and scored 85 points.  He looked good in a few games (Prairie View A&M, Southern Utah, Central Florida, and away Iowa) and like a freshman in the rest.  He didn’t shoot very well from 3-point range (8-for-36 = 22.2%), and he had more turnovers (15) than assists (8).
  • Ian Burns #13 (6’6”, 205 pounds, G) – Ian was on the practice squad as a freshman, and he only played 2 minutes in 2 games.  He missed his only shot attempt.

Junior Eligibility

  • Hunter Dickinson #1 (7’1”, 260 pounds, C) – Hunter is the undisputed heart and soul of this team.  His stats were actually up from his freshman season to his sophomore season, but it didn’t feel like it.  He started out slower last season, almost appearing disinterested during some of the non-conference losses, but he picked up steam as the season went along.  One aspect of his game was definitely better last season: 3-point shooting.  His freshman season, he was 0-for-4.  His sophomore season, he was 21-for-64 (32.8%).  He led the team in scoring (18.6 points/game), rebounding (8.6 rebounds/game), and blocks (49).  Unfortunately, he also led the team in fouls and turnovers.  He is one of the top centers in the Big Ten and the country.
  • Jace Howard #25 (6’7”, 225 pounds, G) – Jace played in 14 games and scored 16 points last season.  He even hit a 3-pointer.  He was often brought in for defensive purposes, and he contributed to a mean full-court press.  I expect him to contribute even more this season.
  • Terrance Williams II #5 (6’7”, 225 pounds, F) – Terrance played in 31 games (started 1), and scored 146 points last season.  He’s had a couple great games (Buffalo, at Nebraska, at Indiana, and at Ohio State) and a bunch of forgettable games.  He was the 2nd best 3-point shooter on the team (20-for-52 = 38.5%).  He’s a good defender, and a good rebounder for his size.

Senior Eligibility

There are no seniors at the team this season.

Starting Lineup/Depth Chart

This is really tricky this season, with all the new players.  My guess:

Point guard: Llewellyn (backups: McDaniel and Bufkin)

Shooting guard: Bufkin (backups: Baker and Barnes)

Small forward: Jett Howard (backups: Williams, Barnes, Jace Howard, Tschetter, and Khayat)

Power forward: Williams (backups: Glenn, Tschetter, and Khayat)

Center: Dickinson (backups: Reed and Glenn)

Last Season

From last season’s Wrap-Up article:

Michigan ended the season with a record of 19-15 (11-9 in Big Ten).  They came in tied for 8th place in the Big Ten regular season standings, lost their only game in the Big Ten Tournament, won their first two games in the NCAA Tournament, then lost in the Sweet Sixteen.  On the one hand, this performance is well below pre-season expectations, but on the other hand, it exceeded most expectations from early February, when their record was 11-9 (5-5 in Big Ten).  Most of the pre-season “experts” picked Michigan as a Top-10 team, and I bought into it.  Things didn’t work out that way.

The season started out well enough, with solid wins in the (away) exhibition game (Wayne State) and the first 2 non-conference games (Buffalo at home and Prairie View A&M at a neutral site), then the first hints of trouble showed up: a 2-point home loss to Seton Hall.  At the time, Seton Hall wasn’t ranked, and Michigan had climbed to #4 in the AP Poll, so this was a shocking result.  By the end of the season, Seton Hall was a respectable 21-11, they were ranked for part of the season, and they were a #8 seed in the Big Dance, so this loss isn’t as bad as it looked at the time.

Michigan went out to Las Vegas for a pre-Thanksgiving tournament, the Roman Main Event.  They beat a pretty good UNLV team in their home town, but they looked terrible in losing to Arizona 80-62 two days later.  Once again, Arizona wasn’t ranked at the time, but they sure were by the end of the season.  They ended the season 33-4, ranked #2 in the final AP Poll, and a #1 seed in the Big Dance.  In hindsight, this was not a very bad loss at all, but it sure felt like it at the time.

Michigan returned home, beat a mediocre Tarleton State team by only 11 points, then they went back on the road, for an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game at North Carolina.  UNC throttled them, 72-51.  Do you see the pattern yet?  At the time, UNC wasn’t ranked, but they sure were for much of the season.  They are currently 29-9, they’re a #8 seed in the Big Dance, and they are playing in the National Championship game tonight.  So, another loss that doesn’t look so bad in the rearview mirror.

Michigan returned home again, and beat a pretty good San Diego State team handily, 72-58.  This was one of Michigan’s better wins.  SDSU ended the season 23-9, and they were a #8 seed in the Big Dance.  Michigan followed up this win with another solid win, 102-67 at Nebraska.  Sure, Nebraska wasn’t predicted to be very good this season, but winning by 35 points on the road is pretty impressive.  Just when it looked like Michigan had finally turned the corner, they played their worst game of the season, losing 75-65 to lowly Minnesota in Crisler Arena.  This was one of the most embarrassing losses in the last 10 years.  Minnesota was dreadful this season, finishing 13-17 (4-16 in Big Ten), tied for last place in the conference with Nebraska.

Michigan returned home yet again, and beat a decent Southern Utah team, 87-50.  They were supposed to play Purdue-Fort Wayne in Crisler just before Christmas, but Fort Wayne had to cancel due to COVID-19 issues in their program.  There was no wiggle room in the schedule to reschedule the game, so it was just canceled.  Michigan’s final non-conference game was at Central Florida, and it was terrible.  Michigan led by 12 points midway through the 2nd half, then they fell apart and lost 85-71.  If the Minnesota loss a few weeks earlier was the worst loss of the season, this one was close behind.

On to the Big Ten!  Michigan was a perfect 12-0 all-time against Rutgers, so they should be able to beat them, even on the road, right?  Wrong.  Another disheartening loss.  However, as with several other opponents this season, Rutgers turned out to be a lot better than expected.  They ended up 18-14 (12-8 in Big Ten), and were a #11 seed in the Big Dance.

As if the Rutgers loss wasn’t bad enough, Michigan had COVID-19 issues in their program, and they had to postpone their next two games, both at home, against two of the tougher teams in the conference: (#10) Michigan State and (#4) Purdue.  At the time, it wasn’t clear when, or even if, the games would be rescheduled, but they were.  Of course, that made for a couple really busy weeks late in the season, but we’ll get to that.

Michigan went on the road again, and lost big at (#25) Illinois.  They beat Maryland in Ann Arbor, Indiana on the road, and Northwestern in Ann Arbor.  Ladies and gentlemen, that was Michigan’s longest winning streak of the season: 3 games in a row.

Back on the road, another loss, this time at (#10) Michigan State.  Back home, playing a team that they beat by 35 points on the road earlier in the season, Nebraska.  No problem, right?  Wrong!  They struggled mightily, but managed to squeak out a win, 85-79.  Back on the road, another Top-10 opponent, another loss: at (#4) Purdue.  The next game was a rare road win, at Penn State.  The season was hanging in the balance.

Look at the emerging pattern: besides the “awesome” 3-game winning streak, Michigan had almost always followed a win with a loss.  The next game was at home, but it was against (#3) Purdue.  This was one of the two rescheduled/make-up games from earlier in the season.  On paper, it looked like Michigan stood no chance.  On the court, it was Michigan’s best game of the season.  They dominated Purdue, 82-58.

Unfortunately, this 2-game mini winning streak was the last time Michigan won two games in a row until the NCAA Tournament.  The rest of the season looked like this:

A few comments on this batch of games:

The win at Iowa was one of Michigan’s better road wins this season, second only to their win at Ohio State to close out the regular season.

The win over Rutgers was nice revenge for their early loss to them on the road.  Ditto for the MSU game.

It makes no sense that Michigan could beat Iowa on the road, then lose to them at home.  Same idea for the Indiana game – Michigan beat them on the road, then lost to them on a neutral court.  It makes no sense.

One of the bigger stories this season came right after the loss at Wisconsin.  Coach Howard was upset by the behavior of some of the Wisconsin coaches and players during the game, and he lost his temper and slapped one of the Wisconsin assistant coaches in the post-game handshake line.  A small brawl broke out, and in the aftermath, Howard was suspended for the last five games of the regular season, two Michigan players (Moussa Diabate and Terrance Williams II) were suspended for one game, one Wisconsin player was suspended for one game, and the Wisconsin head coach (Greg Gard) was given a slap on the wrist.  While Howard was suspended, associate head coach Phil Martelli coached the team, and did a fine job.

The loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament was right up there in the “sad” category.  Once again, Michigan had a nice lead (17 points) midway through the 2nd half, when they just stopped playing.  That game, along with the Minnesota and UCF games, were the only three really bad games Michigan played all season.  The rest of their losses were all explainable and forgivable.

That brings us to the NCAA Tournament.  As the #11 seed, Michigan was not expected to beat the #6 seed ([#24] Colorado State) in the first round, and they certainly were not expected to beat the #3 seed ([#5] Tennessee) in the second round.  Losing to the #2 seed ([#6] Villanova) is nothing to be ashamed of.  Villanova went on to play in the Final Four.

So, what happened?  How did pre-season #6 Michigan end up unranked and a #11 seed in the Big Dance?  I think all of the experts were way too optimistic about the new players, including incoming freshmen and a transfer player.  They eventually all contributed, but not at the beginning of the season, and not consistently.  The freshmen often played like freshmen.  It took longer than expected to develop the right team chemistry.  The schedule also turned out to be a lot more challenging than it looked before the season.

This Season

Let’s look at Michigan’s schedule for this season:

DateOpponentLocationTime (ET)
11/04/2022 (Fri)Ferris State (exhibition)Ann Arbor, MI7:00 p.m.
11/07/2022 (Mon)Purdue – Fort WayneAnn Arbor, MI6:30 p.m.
11/11/2022 (Fri)Eastern MichiganDetroit, MI9:00 p.m.
Legends Classic
11/16/2022 (Wed)PittsburghBrooklyn, NY6:00 p.m.
11/17/2022 (Thu)Arizona State/VCUBrooklyn, NY7:00/9:00 p.m.
11/20/2022 (Sun)OhioAnn Arbor, MI7:30 p.m.
11/23/2022 (Wed)Jackson StateAnn Arbor, MI8:30 p.m.
ACC/Big Ten Challenge
11/29/2022 (Tue)VirginiaAnn Arbor, MI9:30 p.m.
London Showcase
12/04/2022 (Sun)KentuckyLondon, England1:00 p.m.
12/08/2022 (Thu)MinnesotaMinneapolis, MN9:00 p.m.
12/17/2022 (Sat)LipscombLincoln, NE4:00 p.m.
Jumpman Invitational
12/21/2022 (Wed)North CarolinaCharlotte, NC7:00 p.m.
12/29/2022 (Thu)Central MichiganAnn Arbor, MI7:00 p.m.
01/01/2023 (Sun)MarylandAnn Arbor, MI4:30 p.m.
01/04/2023 (Wed)Penn StateAnn Arbor, MI7:00 p.m.
01/07/2023 (Sat)Michigan StateEast Lansing, MI2:30 p.m.
01/12/2023 (Thu)IowaIowa City, IA7:00 p.m.
01/15/2023 (Sun)NorthwesternAnn Arbor, MI12:00/2:15/4:30 p.m.
01/19/2023 (Thu)MarylandCollege Park, MD7:00 p.m.
01/22/2023 (Sun)MinnesotaAnn Arbor, MI12:00/1:00/2:00 p.m.
01/26/2023 (Thu)PurdueAnn Arbor, MI9:00 p.m.
01/29/2023 (Sun)Penn StateState College, PA12:00 p.m.
02/02/2023 (Thu)NorthwesternEvanston, IL7:00 p.m.
02/05/2023 (Sun)Ohio StateAnn Arbor, MI1:00 p.m.
02/08/2023 (Wed)NebraskaAnn Arbor, MI6:30 p.m.
02/11/2023 (Sat)IndianaAnn Arbor, MI6:00 p.m.
02/14/2023 (Tue)WisconsinMadison, WI9:00 p.m.
02/18/2023 (Sat)Michigan StateAnn Arbor, MI9:00 p.m.
02/23/2023 (Thu)RutgersPiscataway, NJ8:30 p.m.
02/26/2023 (Sun)WisconsinAnn Arbor, MI2:00 p.m.
03/02/2023 (Thu)IllinoisChampaign, IL7:00 p.m.
03/05/2023 (Sun)IndianaBloomington, IN4:30 p.m.
Big Ten Tournament
03/08/2023 (Wed)1st RoundChicago, ILTBA
03/09/2023 (Thu)2nd RoundChicago, ILTBA
03/10/2023 (Fri)QuarterfinalsChicago, ILTBA
03/11/2023 (Sat)SemifinalsChicago, ILTBA
03/12/2023 (Sun)ChampionshipChicago, ILTBA

Some comments on the schedule:

  • The 11/11/2022 game vs. Eastern Michigan is being played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, and will be closely watched because of Emoni Bates being on the EMU roster.
  • None of the other teams in the Legends Classic (Pittsburgh, Arizona State, and VCU) are ranked, so Michigan will be the favorite.  A game vs. VCU could be interesting, since two former Michigan players (Zeb Jackson and Brandon Johns, Jr.) are on the team.
  • The ACC/Big Ten Challenge game vs. Virginia is going to be challenging.  UVa is ranked #18 in the AP Top 25 Preseason poll.  Fortunately, the game is in Ann Arbor.
  • The London Showcase game vs. Kentucky in London, England, is going to be very challenging.  Kentucky is ranked #4 in the AP Top 25 Preseason poll.
  • The Jumpman Invitational game vs. North Carolina in Charlotte, NC, is going to be very challenging.  UNC is ranked #1 in the AP Top 25 Preseason poll.  Sure, the game is technically at a neutral site, but Charlotte is much closer to Chapel Hill than Ann Arbor.
  • The five “guarantee” non-conference games (Purdue – Fort Wayne, Ohio, Jackson State, Lipscomb, and Central Michigan) are all winnable, and will be good preparation for the Big Ten schedule.
  • The single December Big Ten game (at Minnesota) is winnable.
  • There is one particularly tough stretch in the schedule: six of the last seven Big Ten games (all except Rutgers) are against teams that are either picked to finish in the top tier of the Big Ten (Indiana [twice] and Illinois) or are big rivalry games with Michigan (Wisconsin [twice] and Michigan State).
  • Each Big Ten team plays 6 teams once (3 home/3 away) and 7 teams twice, for a total of 20 games.  This season, Michigan plays:
    • Once: Iowa (away), Purdue (home), Ohio State (home), Nebraska (home), Rutgers (away), Illinois (away).
    • Twice: Minnesota, Maryland, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Indiana, Wisconsin.

Expectations

I like to divide the games up into 3 categories (“Should Win”, “Should Lose”, and “Toss Up”):

  • Should Win (15) – Purdue-Fort Wayne, Eastern Michigan, Ohio, Jackson State, Lipscomb, Central Michigan, Nebraska, Rutgers, Minnesota (twice), Maryland (home), Penn State (twice), Northwestern (twice).
  • Should Lose (6) – Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan State (away), Wisconsin (away), Illinois (away), Indiana (away).
  • Toss Up (10) – Pittsburgh, Arizona State/VCU, Virginia, Iowa, Maryland (away), Purdue, Ohio State, Indiana (home), Michigan State (home), Wisconsin (home).

If UM can win all 15 of the “Should Win” games, and half (5) of the 10 “Toss Up” games, that would give them a record of 20-11 (12-8 in the Big Ten).  That should be good enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament with a decent seed.  They’ll need to win more like 7 of the 10 “Toss Up” games and 2 of the “Should Lose” games to contend for the Big Ten title.

This Week

This week, Michigan only plays one game.  On Friday (11/04/2022, 7:00 p.m., B1G+) they play Ferris State in Ann Arbor, in their only exhibition game.

Ferris State was 22-9 (16-4 in the GLIAC) last season.  They are a Division II team, and they lost badly to the two Division I schools they played last season.  They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have some height: a 6’10” guy and a 7-footer.  This should be a relatively easy exhibition game.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!