Michigan is looking to follow up on perhaps their best season since the 1997 National Championship. We endured a “will he, won’t he” with Jim Harbaugh and the NFL. We’re also just starting a QB battle between Cade McNamara and JJ McCarthy that threatens to split the fan base in half. But now it’s Labor Day weekend, and that means we kick off the 2022 return of UMGoBlue.com By the Numbers analysis with a game-by-game preview of the 2022 Michigan Football season. In the By the Numbers articles and podcasts we will compile, review, and summarize various metrics to look deeper into the football team’s performance while trying to provide a clearer picture of how the upcoming games may turn out.
The foundation for most of my analysis comes from the ESPN SP+ college football analytics model, created by Bill Connelly. While his system is meant to be predictive for beating the odds against Vegas, studying the Five Factors is also useful for understanding what a team does, or needs to do, to win football games.
What is SP+
SP+ is the tempo and opponent adjusted college football analytical model developed by Bill Connelly for Football Outsiders (he is now at ESPN). SP+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. The resulting metric is expressed in adjusted points per game, as compared to the average CFB team.
2022 SP+ Rankings (Google Sheets)
PAST RESULTS
When it comes to predicting the outcome of Michigan Football games, I’ve tracked my own record, and that of the SP+ projections, since I started writing for UMGoBlue.com in 2018.
Connelly’s SP+ preseason projections were amazingly accurate in picking the straight up winners in 2018 & 2019, missing only twice (2018 picked MSU & 2019 picked Michigan over PSU). In 2019, as Connelly updated his model through the season for Game Week projections, SP+ correctly picked the straight up winner in all 13 games for Michigan. Just like almost everything in 2020, college football projections were a total crapshoot, even for the best in the business. In 2021 the SP+ preseason model was off in their preseason evaluation of Michigan, including 1-11 against the spread. That can be forgiven since nearly everyone was surprised by Michigan’s 2021 Championship turnaround.
Like most Michigan fans, I have often been a victim of preseason optimism. The 2018 season was also a painful learning experience while riding too high on the Revenge Tour. While I picked the correct outcome in 10 out of 12 games, I was bad at predicting the margins. That led to a 3-9 inaugural season against the spread. In 2019 I bounced back against the spread to 10-3, and followed up with a 5-1 record in the 2020 COVID season. That one miss in 2020 was my worst ever, in Game #2 vs. MSU. I cooled off a touch in 2021 with an 8-6 record against the spread in my game week predictions.
Predicting Michigan Games in Preseason (2018-21)
Predicting Michigan Games on Game Week (2018-21)
SP+ Projections & By the Numbers Predictions
Michigan 2022 SP+ Preseason Ranking
Overall – 6th, 21.4
Offense – 6th, 39.9
Defense – 17th, 18.6
The Wolverines’ SP+ ranking is in alignment with our preseason expectations. The defense looks like it should be good, but maybe not great. The offense will likely be asked to carry the team multiple times in 2022, particularly in the first half of the season.
2022 Regular Season Schedule
vs. Colorado State: 96th Overall, 109th Offense, 71st Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 31.5
PREDICTION: The weakness of the non-conference slate in 2022 has gotten a lot of publicity as Michigan’s season draws near. Colorado State brings the SP+ 96th ranked team to Ann Arbor, and they are the highest ranked non-con opponents…by ~30 spots. I think the Rams will finish the season much higher than 96th, but this game will see the Wolverines trying to make a statement that last year was no fluke.
Michigan 49 Colorado State 14, 1-0
vs. Hawaii: 123rd Overall, 101st Offense, 129th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 43.1
PREDICTION: It’s tough to make too much out of this mismatch. Hawaii always has an uphill climb with the logistics challenges involved with flying a football team across an ocean for half your season. This season new head coach Timmy Chang will be given plenty of leeway to show what he’s capable of. I expect this Week 2 night game matchup with Michigan to be pretty lopsided for the Wolverines.
Michigan 56 Hawaii 9, 2-0
vs. UConn: 128th Overall, 129th Offense, 122nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 48.8
PREDICTION: Michigan might experience an emotional let down in Week 3. UConn comes into Ann Arbor with their new head coach Jim Mora. If the Huskies are 0-2 and look as listless as they did in 2021, this one will struggle to crack 100K in Big House attendance. Let’s hope the apathy is limited to the fan base, and the team is not caught looking ahead to the B1G season opener.
Michigan 37 UConn 10, 3-0
vs. Maryland: 54th Overall, 29th Offense, 89th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 19.8
PREDICTION: This game has already lulled Michigan fans and local media to sleep. The preseason narrative is all about the weak “September Schedule” and the first four walkover games before a road trip to Iowa City. That is a big mistake. Maryland’s wide receivers are in the same tier as Michigan’s & Ohio States. If the Terps can protect Taulia Tagovailoa, and can also protect the football, this game could be a shoot out.
Michigan 48 Maryland 39, 4-0
@ Iowa: 27th Overall, 62nd Offense, 8th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 5.6
PREDICTION: The Wolverines have experienced multiple nightmares at Kinnick versus the Hawkeyes. Both teams could be 4-0 leading into this rematch of the 2021 B1G Championship Game. If that happens, FOX probably chooses this game for their noon slot. That would be a very good break for Michigan. Regardless of time slot, I expect this game will be a low-scoring rock fight. Bet the under as soon as it’s available.
Michigan 20 Iowa 13, 5-0
@ Indiana: 86th Overall, 98th Offense, 68th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 23.9
PREDICTION: Indiana’s program has been problematic for Michigan under Tom Allen’s leadership. I think this 2nd consecutive road trip will create some fatigue for the Wolverines, and the Hoosiers will do their best to duplicate the Iowa defensive game plan. In the end, this may be the game where we find out which players will step up in the biggest moments for Michigan. Initially, I am looking to Ronnie Bell and DJ Turner to make the critical plays in high leverage situations.
Michigan 31 Indiana 17, 6-0
vs. Penn State: 13th Overall, 48th Offense, 6th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.4
PREDICTION: The Nittany Lions travel to the Big House to kick off the 2nd half of the schedule. Traditionally, Jim Harbaugh’s teams have handled James Franklin’s program with ease in home games. The 2020 COVID year was a glaring exception. Penn State’s defense could keep this from getting to blow out status, but I think the Wolverines will stay in control for almost the entire game to stay unbeaten.
Michigan 29 Penn State 17, 7-0
vs. Michigan State: 15th Overall, 20th Offense, 20th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 7.8
PREDICTION: I am mostly a believer in Mel Tucker’s ability to put together a dangerous team from the transfer portal. I expect the 2022 battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy to resemble a heavyweight fight. Both sides will land some haymakers. The biggest advantage for Michigan will be talent in the secondary. I expect to see the Wolverines make 1 or 2 huge plays in the 4th quarter, with perhaps another Andrel Anthony sighting.
Michigan 41 Michigan State 33, 8-0
@ Rutgers: 80th Overall, 96th Offense, 56th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 21.6
PREDICTION: Plain and simple, Greg Schiano’s defensive scheme gives Michigan problems. The Wolverines got out to a good start against the Scarlet Knights in 2021, but their lack of linebacker depth allowed Rutgers to hang out longer than Maize & Blue faithful were comfortable with. This might be the BTN night game, on the road in Piscataway. I think Schiano finds a way to keep it close again.
Michigan 30 Rutgers 20, 9-0
vs. Nebraska: 44th Overall, 53rd Offense, 33rd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 15.6
PREDICTION: The crystal ball gets pretty cloudy when trying to predict November games from the couch in preseason. Nebraska is a total wild card. History says that Scott Frost will put together a very solid football team. But, they will find ways to lose football games. In a lot of ways they remind me of my favorite NFL team. I am just assuming the Cornhuskers get it figured out well enough to give this game a medium-sized profile. I also expect Frost to find a way to choke away a heartbreaker.
Michigan 24 Nebraska 23, 10-0
vs. Illinois: 79th Overall, 104th Offense, 42nd Defense
PRESEASON SP+: U-M by 26.3
PREDICTION: In 2022, the Fighting Illini have drawn the sandwich November trap game slot in Michigan’s schedule. If the Wolverines find themselves undefeated and in the hunt for a B1G Championship and CFP berth, then the most important question will be whether the players can focus on anything other than The Game. This will be Senior Night, and player leadership will be crucial in keeping Illinois & their running game in the crosshairs.
Michigan 42 Illinois 21, 11-0
@ Ohio State: 3rd Overall, 1st Offense, 15th Defense
PRESEASON SP+: OSU by 10.8
PREDICTION: Ohio State’s offense is probably going to be BETTER than that Death Star from 2021. CJ Stroud, Jackson Smith-Njigba, & Trevyon Henderson were superstars last year, and they will all be battling for Heisman trophy consideration by this point in the season. The bigger questions reside on the Buckeyes’ coaching staff. Has Ryan Day’s 1-1 record versus Michigan sewn any lasting doubt? Can Jim Knowles right the ship on defense in one season? I expect the Wolverines will have a number of chances to win their 2nd consecutive game versus OSU for the first time since 2000. However, in Columbus, I am bracing myself for something ridiculous to happen.
Michigan 39 Ohio State 45, 11-1
2nd Place in B1G Ten East
