Final Score: 11-49, Wisconsin by 38 over Michigan SP+ Projection: Wisconsin by 9.8 (-28.2) CD Projection: Wisconsin by 17 (-21)
WEEK 4 RECAP vs. Wisconsin
Michigan fans were dispirited heading into this game, and somehow feel worse limping out of it. It’s time to figure out what the plan for 2021 is, I think. I will keep the analysis brief, because I am not one to blow smoke.
Offensively, I will summarize like this: both of Michigan’s scoring drives happened while the scoreboard determined that it was technically garbage time. 28-0 in the 3rd quarter, Jim Harbaugh was forced to send Quinn Nordin in to kick a mercy field goal on 4th & 10. By the time Cade McNamara hit three chunk plays through the air in the 4th quarter, it was 35-3 and those stats will also be removed from the data.
Defensively, at least the problems tonight were different than the last two weeks…? The corners finally looked serviceable, but with both Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson out, the Wolverines failed to set an edge from start to finish. RBs and WRs rushed the ball outside with ease. When the Badgers did need to throw, Graham Mertz found easy connections in the flat where LBs could not cover.
It’s extremely frustrating to look less prepared than the team that had their last two games canceled during a 10-day shutdown due to a COVID breakout. I don’t know what the right answer is, but it’s time to start asking the hard questions.
The Wolverines fell flat against Indiana, losing 38-21 in Bloomington. The loss increased considerable hot seat conversations for multiple Michigan coaches.
NEXT UP: vs. Wisconsin: 4th, 25.7
PREGAME SP+: Wisconsin by 9.8, Michigan Win Probability 29% As a predictive system, the SP+ numbers are really handcuffed by Wisconsin. They have only played one game, and could be missing numerous players to COVID protocol. However, given Michigan’s struggles, the projected margin has increased by about two points since the Big Ten preseason.
Michigan Offense (30th) vs. Wisconsin Defense (2nd) The first question of many for the Wolverines: who are the healthiest offensive lineman? Michigan has struggled desperately to find success in the run game in their two losses. Even if they had the week one offensive line, the yards would be tough to come by against the Badgers’ defensive front. Strategically, I’m still looking for Josh Gattis to utilize his skill guys to put edge defenders into conflict. If those types of plays bring the defensive backs up into press, we need to see the fastest WRs like Roman Wilson stretch the field vertically.
Michigan Defense (19th) vs. Wisconsin Offense (12th) This matchup is a total wild card. Michigan is limping through key injuries up front to Aidan Hutchinson and possibly to Kwity Paye. Missing key pass rushers does not bode well for a team trying to support struggling cover corner guys. At the same time, Wisconsin will either have their fourth-string quarterback under center, or a QB returning from foot surgery (Jack Coan), or a redshirt freshman returning from COVID isolation (Graham Mertz). With so much unknown in this matchup, I expect Don Brown to double down on his aggressive philosophy. That means blitzers from all directions, and could be another challenge to some young CBs trying to make a name for themselves like freshman Andre Seldon.
PREDICTION: Sometimes the different metric systems like SP+ cannot “see” the important mitigating factors from week to week. This game between struggling Michigan, and virus-depleted Wisconsin seems like it is wholly made up of unknown mitigating factors. Amidst all that chaos, I am expecting that the more experienced and higher-ranked defense for the Badgers will be the greatest difference. The Wolverines will need to find some big plays, maybe on special teams, to upset the Badgers. Michigan 20 Wisconsin 37 (PRESEASON Michigan 17 Wisconsin 23)
Final Score: 14-35, Wisconsin by 21 over Michigan SP+ Projection: Wisconsin by 9.0 (+12) CD Projection: Wisconsin by 4 (+17)
WEEK 4 RECAP @ Wisconsin
Wisconsin did not spring any traps. We did not see any artfully scripted series coming out of the Badgers’ bye week. They simply lined up and said, “Here we come, try and stop us.” Michigan could not find any answers. Wisconsin’s first drive went 12 plays, and took 6:25 off the clock. The drive included the riverboat gambler awakening of Paul Chryst, who finally realized he should use the best running attack in the country on all four downs. On 4th & 1, from his own 34 yard line, Chryst rolled the dice on the first drive of the game! Jonathon Taylor answered the bell with a 3-yard run. Wisconsin converted two subsequent 3rd down plays, including the 1-yard touchdown plunge by Taylor. The Badgers made an emphatic statement, right from the opening bell.
After the ensuing touchback, the Wolverines looked to Josh Gattis and Shea Patterson for their opening statement. On 1st & 10, Patterson connected with Ronnie Bell, who raced 68 yards down inside the Wisconsin 10 yard line. After Patterson missed Nico Collins on 1st & Goal, Michigan looked confused trying to get their heavy personnel onto the field, including recently converted defensive tackle, Ben Mason. Jim Harbaugh called timeout to ensure everyone was on the same page. After the time out, Mason fumbled his first carry since 2018. Through three games, the Wolverines have fumbled their first drive away 100% of the time.
Wisconsin began to march again, before Chryst inexplicably forgot about Jonathon Taylor again. After moving the sticks a couple times, the Badgers punted back to Michigan from midfield. With under four minutes left in the first quarter, Michigan was given another chance to answer Wisconsin’s opening statement. A quick completion to Tarik Black set up 2nd & 5. Patterson attacked the deep middle of the field by throwing a laser to Ronnie Bell. Bell made a beautiful diving catch, and again Michigan looked poised to stand toe-to-toe with Wisconsin.
Alas, the play was reviewed, and the catch was ruled incomplete. The FOX network’s rules analyst, former referee Mike Pereira, disagreed with the decision. He stated that it was so clearly a catch that if the call had been incomplete, he would have overturned that to rule it a catch. Regardless, Michigan was challenged to convert on 3rd & 5. When Patterson couldn’t connect with Sean McKeon, the Wolverines punted to the Badgers’ 28 yard line. On the very next play play, Taylor took an inside hand off 72 yards untouched to the end zone to make it 14-0.
Now with 2:32 left in the first quarter, Michigan would have one more chance to answer the challenge from the Badgers. On 3rd & 5, Patterson looked to Donovan Peoples-Jones, who was making his first appearance of 2019. Peoples-Jones drew a pass interference penalty to give Michigan an automatic first down, but lost his composure after the call. After marking off the unsportsmanlike penalty yardage, the Wolverines had gained six yards on the spot foul, and lost fifteen yards on the dead ball foul. Four plays later Michigan punted again. After the Badgers bulldozed their way to a third touchdown (15 plays, 80 yards, 8:29, two 4th down conversions), the Wolverines would not get another real opportunity to right the ship.
Michigan Football repeatedly finds themselves in this early hole on the road against competitive teams. We’ve discussed both verbally and in print how the metrics highlight clear issues on the road. Today, Michigan again failed to rise above some early adversity at Camp Randall, and Wisconsin made them pay. Michigan’s program is not on life support, despite how dead we may feel inside when these shoddy performances are repeated annually.
There will undoubtedly be a renewed sense of urgency inside Schembechler Hall this week. The talented players and proven coaches in Ann Arbor can absolutely solve these issues. They must find a way to rise to the largest challenges when the pressure is highest. To enable his players and his coaches, Jim Harbaugh must first reform his culture of both physical and mental toughness before the other necessary corrections truly matter at all. All hope is not lost, but Michigan must start by answering the coming challenges with a fighter’s mentality. The challenges will start in a matter of hours with some pretty brutal film sessions.
During the bye week, I was able to take a peek back to the three previous meetings between Michigan and Wisconsin. Here is a quick review of those games through an SP+ lens. When game statistics feed into Bill Connelly’s SP+ system, a Postgame Win Expectancy gets created. The system calculates the percentage of repeated games with those statistics that would result in a Michigan win. Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan has a 2-1 record versus the Badgers.
2018: #17 Wisconsin @ #5 Michigan; W 38-13; Postgame Win Exp. 86% Michigan started to see the offensive line gel as a unit, and the Arc Read QB read option package made its debut. The defense was without Rashan Gary, but Kwity Paye and Josh Uche filled in admirably. Inexplicably, Wisconsin continually took Jonathon Taylor off the field on 3rd down.
2017 (SBNation): #27 Michigan @ #6 Wisconsin; L 10-24; Postgame Win Exp. 26% Both defensive units established dominance in 2017, but the Wisconsin offense was able to make more big plays in key spots. Wisconsin edged Michigan slightly in success rate 31% to 27%, but had a much more prominent edge in explosiveness. The Badgers dominated the Yards/Play metric 5.27 to 3.68. On standard downs, the Badgers recorded an IsoPPP of 1.08 compared to 0.75 for the Wolverines.
2016 (SBNation): #11 Wisconsin @ #3 Michigan; W 14-7; Postgame Win Exp. 97% In 2016, Michigan utilized an Army-style game plan to grind out a one-score victory. The Wolverines ran 80 offensive plays, compared to just 53 for the Badgers, and were also boosted by a +2 turnover margin. While being slightly less explosive, especially in the ground game, Michigan doubled the success rate of Wisconsin 42% to 21%. The game was kept close largely because of the Wolverines’ inability to finish drives. Michigan averaged 2.33 points in six trips inside Wisconsin’s 40 yard line. The Badgers only created three scoring opportunities in the game.
NEXT UP: @ Wisconsin: 7th, 24.9
PREGAME SP+: Wisconsin by 9.0, Michigan Win Probability 30% Michigan’s defense has moved up to 1st in SP+ unit rankings, but the offense is down to 74th. That is below average for FBS, and way below Power 5 average.
Michigan Offense (74th) vs. Wisconsin Defense (10th) This match up will likely determine Saturday’s winner. The Wolverines absolutely MUST eliminate turnovers, and they would be well served to continually move the chains and give the defense a break. I expect to see an outing that looks more like Week 1 vs. MTSU (still not flawless) as opposed to what we saw in Week 2 vs. Army. The expected return of Donovan Peoples-Jones should lead to increased space for Shea Patterson to attack through the air. That in turn could stretch the Wisconsin linebackers out of the zone running lanes for Zach Charbonnet and Christian Turner.
Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Wisconsin Offense (16th) Don Brown will come up with a creative game plan to contain the Badgers’ rushing attack. The key for the game will be whether Wisconsin can exploit Michigan’s lack of depth on the interior defensive line. The Wolverines will need to swarm to the ball on every tackle to limit +2, +3, and +4 yard running play add-ons by Jonathon Taylor. It would also be crucial for an opportunistic Michigan defense to create an early turnover and help take the crowd out of the game.
PREDICTION: Jim Harbaugh’s appreciation of this team’s work ethic, and their ability to string together good practices encourages me a bit. His short press conference answer about “having a good team” as the key to winning on the road seemed abrupt to some. However, he has previously discussed that being a “good team” is being able to find a way to be successful in the face of adversity. In the Army post game, he also alluded to good teams having to win a “football fight” like the Wolverines did against the Black Knights. These intangibles should be a program focus for improving road game performance in 2019. With all of that said, I haven’t seen enough offensive cohesion or explosiveness to outweigh my preseason concerns about Michigan winning away from Ann Arbor. Wisconsin 27 Michigan 23 (PRESEASON Wisconsin 26 Michigan 24)
Welcome to the bye week! For fans, the off week will present a challenge to avoid yanking every hair out of our heads. However, I think the timing favors the Wolverines considering Wisconsin is off to a 110-0 start, and Michigan…is not. Let’s use the extra time to look at the 2019 offense through two games and compare to two early season home games from 2018: Week 2 vs. WMU and Week 3 vs. SMU. Click here for more detail on the Five Factors (Explosiveness, Efficiency, Finish Drives, Field Position, TOs / Penalties).
2018 OFFENSE vs. 2019 OFFENSE
Despite the most pervasive feelings in the fan base ranging from nervous to apocalyptic, we have seen significant positive building blocks for the offense:
Zach Charbonnet: a) ball security, b) pass protection, & c) zone running
TE blocking improvement creates mismatches & TEs don’t tip Run or Pass
Depth: a) TE, b) WR, c) OL, d) RB, e) QB
Challenge for Defensive Coordinators to prepare for what is yet unseen
My list of positives so far in 2019 starts with the introduction of Zach Charbonnet. Typically, early season breakout parties come from explosive plays and shiny stat lines that may or may not be sustainable throughout a whole season. This feels different. The praise being heaped on Charbonnet centers around things freshmen running backs are typically very shaky on: ball security and pass protection. We have seen the physical thump he brings both with the ball in his hand on the goal line vs. Army and in the face of pressure from blitzing linebackers vs. MTSU. I am confident that shiny stats and explosive plays are coming.
In 2018, Sean McKeon was challenged to become a key blocker as Michigan diversified their zone running scheme to include an Arc Read Option. You may remember Shea Patterson’s surprise long run from the 2018 Wisconsin game. That was the introduction of the Arc Read series complementing the Split Zone play. While this series was moderately successful, it was a lot to handle for McKeon. Fast forward to present day, and not only is McKeon improved in the blocking role, but he is joined by Nick Eubanks. When the Arc Series is combined with the potential of either tight end threatening vertically in the passing game, we can see how Josh Gattis can create more space for the faster skill players in 2019.
Numbers 2 and 3 on the list are both a testament to year-over-year individual improvement and solid recruiting. The depth at tight end is matched by the wide receivers. Michigan fans should be grateful that receiver, offensive line, and running back depth were strengths coming out of fall camp, because injuries have put that depth to use early in 2019. Large portions of the fan base are focusing on the quarterback depth as a silver bullet solution to early season questions. In reality, the QB depth should help lighten the load on Shea Patterson as he recovers from an oblique injury, and reassure fans that the future of the program remains built on a strong foundation.
Finally, the element of surprise still may be another factor working in favor of the Wolverines. Both national and local media have fully documented the lack of answers to off season questions for this offense. The silver lining to that cloud is that defensive coordinators still have to ask themselves those questions while trying to prepare for Michigan, especially at Wisconsin and Rutgers. This can pay dividends in two ways: 1) we may see the #SpeedInSpace scheme unleashed against under-prepared defensive units or 2) even if those defensive units are well prepared, they had to dedicate a boat load of man-hours and energy to preparing for many what-if scenarios and Gattis’ counterattacks. That means other defensive fundamentals, or new exotic defensive schemes probably took a back seat for Michigan week.
OK, now we can discuss what has caused so much of our fan stress, and what I think needs to be corrected in order for this offense to tighten up their execution and take off. After viewing the 2019 games and comparing the metrics, I bucketed known (observed) problems and potential (implied/assumed) problems. Here is the list, in order of severity:
Fumbles: a) QB Security, b) Blitz Pickups
Injuries: a) QB, b) OL, c) WR
QB / WR Connection: a) timing, b) accuracy, c) drops
Road Game Execution
Distribution of Passing Game Targets
Zone Read: a) QB Run, b) Interior Push
First, let me admit that the TO issue is even worse than it looks in the numbers above. I did not include Lavert Hill’s muffed punt in Week 1 as a turnover by the offense. Of course, it still affected the game outcome and the fans’ current state of mind. Now, why the big uptick in fumbles lost? The largest factor in fumble stats is bad short term luck. An oblong football bounces in weird ways, and you never know what could happen. However, other factors are more controllable, and must be addressed by the players and coaches in the bye week. Shea Patterson absolutely has to tighten his ball security, both in the pocket as a passer and as a runner. Far too often, we can see images of Shea holding the ball one-handed and out away from his body. These fundamentals can be improved quickly through specific drills and coaching reinforcement. Additionally, any running back that enters the game must be able to pick up protection calls. Michigan cannot allow free shots on the quarterback. Charbonnet and Tru Wilson have shown their reliability. Christian Turner and Hassan Haskins both need to improve their pass protection to earn more snaps.
The next issue challenging the offense has been a rash of injuries in the early season. Coming out of fall camp, only the Andrew Stueber injury and Ambry Thomas illness were widely reported. Since the end of camp the injury list has grown. Running back Tru Wilson missed a game and a half. Neither Donovan Peoples-Jones nor Jon Runyan has yet to play a snap. Shea Patterson is reportedly battling an oblique injury. He has missed a few snaps, and appeared hampered on others. The depth we discussed in the positives section has been immediately tested on offense. Perhaps the early bye week is just what the doctor ordered for the Wolverines.
In a problem that seems to have carried over from 2018, Shea Patterson has still not established precise timing with his talented receiving threats. Last year under Pep Hamilton, the vertical passing attack favored deep drops and slow developing routes. Many long throws, even the completions, ended with the wide receiver slowing down to jump and high point a contested ball against a defender. I doubt this issue is related to any question about Patterson’s arm strength. I have maintained that he holds the ball for a split second too long before throwing to an area and allowing the receiver to run to it. In 2019 there is an added challenge of totally revamped reads for the quarterback. It’s understandable to see more examples of missed timing (like the missed post route to Nico Collins in 2OT) than we see rhythmic pitch-and-catch (like the seam route TD to Sean McKeon vs. MTSU) early in the season. We should only be concerned if this issue persists into the middle and second half of the season. I am a believer in Ben McDaniels and Jim Harbaugh as QB coaches, and in Josh Gattis as a receivers coach. The explosive plays are coming.
In addition to the issues we’ve seen so far in 2019, there are still lingering questions to be answered from Michigan’s recent performance history. Top of my potential issues list is execution in road games. As I laid out in my season preview, Michigan’s 2018 average performance relative to SP+ projections decreased by 15+ points away from the Big House. There is an unending list of possible variables that could contribute to this problem, so there is not a simple correction. Somehow, the coaching staff has to make mental preparation and solid first quarter starts a priority in road games. Additionally, I think this challenge falls to the leaders in the Michigan locker room. Championship performances require mental toughness and diligent focus in the face of adversity, especially in a hostile environment. I think Michigan’s captains, seniors, and best players must first lead by example, as well as relentlessly elevate every teammate to match the championship intensity.
The next challenge is trying to find balance in distributing touches between the various offensive weapons. Gattis’ increased tempo resulted in 79 offensive snaps in Week1, and even managed 69 snaps in regulation versus the ball hogs of Army (equal to the 2018 average for Michigan). More snaps per game should help to distribute the ball to more players. More importantly, eliminating the turnover bug would be even more beneficial. The #SpeedInSpace philosophy centers around putting the defense in conflict by forcing them to pick their poison: Charbonnet or McCaffrey? Collins or McKeon? DPJ in space or Tarik Black deep? . To accomplish this, Michigan needs to get into a regular rhythm and needs to string successful plays together to knock the defense back onto their heels. Nothing disrupts an offense’s rhythm and reanimates a reeling defense like a turnover. Consistent repetitions with all the healthy first stringers during the bye week will also be critical to solving this problem.
The final problem on offense to keep your eye on is the success of the read option rushing attack. In the aftermath of the Army Scare, many conspiracy theories circulated on all forms of media. Can Shea Patterson run the ball despite an injury? If not, why don’t the coaches trust Dylan McCaffrey? If he’s healthy, is he just misreading the option plays, or has Harbaugh grabbed the keys back from Gattis and demanded a return to vanilla inside zone hand offs? I am here to tell you, all of these theories are white noise, and can be labeled “we’ll see”, then put onto the shelf. We confirmed Patterson’s not 100%, but Gattis was clear in his Monday interview that the called plays all required the quarterback to read the defense. Fans observing video clips online began analyzing defensive scrape exchanges and open space on the edge, then began to formulate the various questions above.
Instead, there is actual evidence that Army pulled many of the correct levers for their defensive scheme vs. Michigan’s read option. When Michigan adjusted to a shortage of remaining second half possessions against Army, they committed to the low risk read option play almost exclusively (three first half turnovers will do that to ya!). Army correctly countered with corner blitzes, and linebacker scrape exchanges to force Patterson to hand the ball off (usually correctly, but not always). We can still wonder why Michigan didn’t call the “counter to the counter”, but the simpler run scheme was moving the ball. Despite the fans’ frustration at the consecutive run plays, the Wolverines’ only punted one time last Saturday.
All of this is a long-winded way to advocate for practicing just a bit more patience with the offense through its infancy. The explosive plays are coming! I just hope they arrive in time to win the first key Big Ten match up in Madison next Saturday.