Tag: Little Brown Jug

Posted on

Michigan 27 Minnesota 24 – Game 5 Recap

GAME 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.0 (-9.0)
CD Projection: Michigan by 15 (-12)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 5 RECAP vs. Minnesota

Michigan offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell answered the bell. This game plan was solid, and creative. We saw personnel adjustments that better utilized the Wolverines’ talent, even with Semaj Morgan sidelined. Unfortunately, Michigan is still one or two mistakes away from efficient execution. Kalel Mullings cashed in on a long run, and a short field to score two first quarter touchdowns. A blocked punt led to a 3rd score and a 21-3 halftime lead. The yardage told a different story, though. The Gophers outgained Michigan 130-107 in the first half, and 166-134 in the second half. Coleston Loveland still looks less than 100%, and now Myles Hinton adds another big injury concern at left tackle.

While it was clearly a story of two halves for Michigan overall, the defense was a little different. The Wolverines looked dominant in the 1st and 3rd quarters, but could not get the big stops necessary in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Linebacker Ernest Hausmann led the effort with 9 total tackles, and Mason Graham led with 2 tackles for loss. Maybe the highlight of the game was an acrobatic interception by Jayaire Hill on a deep bomb along the sideline. Hill was in great position, got his head around to find the ball, made the pick with his hands and managed to toe tap in bounds.

Placekicker Dominic Zvada reentered the scoring sheet with two field goals, and provided the eventual game winning points. Tommy Doman averaged nearly 47 yards per punt, but a first half touchback, and a big 60-yard return in the second half killed the net effect. Michigan averaged just 26.4 net yards per punt, and lost a significant field position advantage in the second half.

Right now Michigan Football feels like a boxer who has been stunned, and just needs to hang in there until the bell. The injuries are piling up, and it seems like most other teams have had their first bye week at this point. The Wolverines will need to get back to work right away to prep for their first road trip out west to Seattle next week. Then they will feel the relief of some rest during a bye week. The Michigan staff needs to tighten up their execution to ride their complementary football style to another victory before the break. Smash!

Posted on

By the Numbers: Game 5 vs. Minnesota

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scored with under a minute remaining to take the lead, and held on to secure the 27-24 victory over the USC Trojans in an instant classic. The defense held their own against a top-tier offense, and Kalel Mullings was an absolute beast on the ground, including a Jim Brown style rumble for 63 yards on the game winning drive. 

NEXT UP: vs. Minnesota: SP+ 47th, 6.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.0, Michigan Win Probability 77%

The Vegas lines are finally shifting closer to the SP+ model output.  Right now Michigan is a 10.5 point betting favorite, and SP+ likes the Wolverines by 12.  I am surprised Minnesota’s defense stayed ranked in the top 20 after allowing Iowa to score 31 points last week.

Michigan Offense (61st) vs. Minnesota Defense (17th) 

All the analysis and prognostication is centered on this match up with Alex Orji making his second start at QB.  After going 7-for-12 for 32 yards passing last game, a huge portion of the Michigan fan base wants to see more passing game competence.  Unfortunately for them, rainy conditions in the Big House will likely limit the play calling options available to offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. The Wolverines are completely satisfied duplicating what worked for them last week versus USC, because it also worked just fine for Iowa in a 31-14 victory in Minneapolis.  For me, the most important thing is getting your five best offensive weapons onto the field together as frequently as possible.  Kalel Mullings, Coleston Loveland, Donovan Edwards, Max Bredeson, and Semaj Morgan should see a lion’s share of the snaps in order to threaten the entire field.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Minnesota Offense (89th)

Put very simply, this is a David vs. Goliath mismatch.  Michigan has to handle their business down-to-down to avoid giving the Gophers any sense of confidence.  Under PJ Fleck, Minnesota has been a run-first offense with a smash mentality similar to Sherrone Moore’s Wolverines.  However, this year they are more reliant on a super dangerous wide receiver #9 Daniel Jackson, and transfer QB from New Hampshire #16 Max Brosmer.  One potential snag for Michigan could be depth at the defensive back position.  Will Johnson was not 100% healthy to finish last week’s game, so #20 Jyaire Hill and #12 Aamir Hall may be called on to answer the challenge against Jackson.  I expect Michigan’s defensive line to wreak havoc on the Gophers all day, but the defensive backs will have to avoid coverage busts and missed tackles that have been too commonplace to start this season.

PREDICTION: Michigan will likely need to build their own energy down on the sidelines.  It’s a grey, rainy day in Ann Arbor that might suppress the enthusiasm of the Big House crowd after last week’s classic comeback.  I expect the defense to set up the offense with a couple short fields, and if Orji and the offense cash those possessions in early, this could become a blow out.  Right now, I need to see a little cleaner execution from the offensive line, and more creativity with personnel from Kirk Campbell before I start predicting high score totals for the Wolverines.

Michigan 21 Minnesota 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Minnesota 9)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/14/24, 3-1

CFP Rank: N/A

SP+ Overall: 15th (↓3), 15.8
SP+ Offense: 61st (↓4), 28.5
SP+ Defense: 5th (↓1), 13.1
SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑9), 0.4

AP Poll: 12th (↑6), 805

Coaches’ Poll: 12th (↑5), 692

Posted on

Michigan 52 Minnesota 10 – Game 6 Recap

GAME 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 52-10, Michigan by 42 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 18.5 (+23.5)
CD Projection: Michigan by 27 (+15)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 6 RECAP @ Minnesota

The Wolverines have settled on their starting five offensive linemen, and it paid off. Michigan put up a 67% success rate against Minnesota, who came into the contest as the 28th ranked defense, per SP+. That is the 2nd highest mark of the season for Michigan (68% vs. Bowling Green). JJ McCarthy was also solid in the passing game with a 70% completion rate, 219 yards, and a touchdown to Colston Loveland. The most impactful part of McCarthy’s game was adding 2 touchdown runs. The QB run game must officially be accounted for by the rest of the defensive coordinators on Michigan’s schedule.

We’ve seen the Michigan defense give up an explosive score early (vs. Rutgers), and a few times late (most recently Nebraska). This time, the cringe-worthy play happened just before halftime when Minnesota’s WR Daniel Jackson beat Mike Sainristil on a fade route late in the 2nd quarter. After the Wolverines were staying blocked on some outside zone runs, this looked like there could be significant question marks. Then the 2nd half arrived, and Mason Graham and his partners smothered the Golden Gophers, allowing only 46 total yards after half time.

On special teams, James Turner has settled in as the place kicker. He has shown a strong leg, and looked solid on all 7 (!) extra points while also converting a chip shot field goal. Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris continue to compete for the punt return duties. Seems like Thaw is the “safe” option, while Morris probably has more upside for an explosive return.

While the B1G Ten season’s opening three games have come against similar opponent profiles (Rutgers, Nebraska, & Minnesota), we are seeing the Wolverines continually improve week after week. The offensive line is settling in, but there is still room to grow as the running backs continue to look to add more big runs. The interior defensive line appears unblock-able for long stretches in every game, but there are still cracks visible in the secondary. This team is playing extraordinarily well, but the scariest thing is that they might not be at their peak. Yet.

Posted on

By the Numbers: Game 6 @ Minnesota

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan finally delivered a dominant performance in all phases.  This one came on the road in Lincoln as the Wolverines pounded Nebraska 45-7. 

NEXT UP: @ Minnesota: SP+ 46th, 4.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 18.5, Michigan Win Probability 86%

Michigan stayed #1 overall in the SP+ rankings, thanks to the offense jumping back up into the top ten unit rankings.  The Golden Gophers are 46th overall, led by their 28th ranked defense.

Michigan Offense (9th) vs. Minnesota Defense (28th) 

The Wolverines may have settled on a 5-man offensive line unit for the time being.  Ladarius Henderson got his first start at left tackle last week, and Karsen Barnhart shifted over to right tackle.  The run game execution looked a little cleaner to me.  Now we’ll be looking to see Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards make a man miss and create explosive runs. 

JJ McCarthy is back to his razor sharp form.  McCarthy continues to carve up zone coverages through the middle of the field.  He also presents a major headache when he moves out of the pocket.  It’s nearly impossible to stay tight in coverage on Michigan’s receivers for the extra three or four seconds when JJ is on the move.  I expect to see the Wolverines exploit the middle of Minnesota’s defense through the air, but maybe we will see more targets toward the tight ends today.  

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Minnesota Offense (77th)

Week six presents another lopsided mismatch for the Michigan defense.  Minnesota has an OK running attack when they are at full strength, but they have been missing their best running back recently.  Regardless of who is carrying the ball, defensive tackles Kris Jenkins and Mason Graham have been almost impossible to block.  We expect Graham to return for this game with a club on his hand.  I will be interested to see if he sheds blocks at the same rate without use of one hand.  

The Wolverines’ pass defense presents the best opportunity for growth and improvement in Minneapolis.  We still haven’t seen the outside corners challenge and press the opposing wide receivers at the line of scrimmage.  Also, some of the zone coverages in the middle have yielded big windows for quarterbacks to hit slants, and those receivers have been able to run after the catch.  I will be looking for more aggressive coverage technique from the corners, expecting the ball to come out quickly.  The added aggression could yield multiple turnovers from Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis.  

PREDICTION: The first half of the regular season will come to close at the completion of tonight’s game.  There was remarkable similarity between the first three opponents, and now the 4th-6th opponents are equally comparable.  I think we’ll see a performance very similar to those against Rutgers and Nebraska. 

The one concerning question is whether the prime time (7:30 PM EST) time slot creates issues for Michigan as it did in Week 3 versus Bowling Green.  If the Wolverines come out and can generate another hot start on the road like last week, we’ll see matching results.  But, if there is a lack of energy, or any sloppiness that leads to early turnovers, this Minnesota team and crowd will be ready throw everything they have, including the kitchen sink, toward an upset bid.
Michigan 33 Minnesota 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 31 Minnesota 14)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 10/02/23, 5-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 25.0
    • SP+ Offense: 9th (↑4), 37.4
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↓1), 12.8
    • SP+ Special Teams: 8th (↑8), 0.4
  • AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1436
  • Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (same), 1503
  • CFP Rank: N/A