Looking Back is a Special Feature by Jeff Cummins Highlighting Key Rivalry Games
The third installment of this weekā€™s series looking back at the football rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State takes us to 2002. Five years after Michiganā€™s 1997 National Championship, the landscape looked a little different. Ohio State coach Jim Tressel established the previous season that he would be a force to be reckoned with; a sobering reality for Michigan fans who had thoroughly enjoyed the rivalry during the John Cooper years.
Adam Finley provided much of the spark in the first half for Michigan. Finleyā€™s three field goals sent the Wolverines to the locker room with a 9-7 lead at halftime.
With less than seven minutes remaining, Ohio State faced a critical 3rd down and 7 yards to go. Michigan needed just two stops to give the ball back to the Wolverine offense. Someone from Michigan had to make a big play.
Unfortunately for the Wolverines, that player was Ohio State quarterback Craig Krenzel, a native of Michigan. After gaining six yards on third down, Krenzel stretched past the first down marker, giving Ohio State a fresh set of downs. A few plays later, Krenzel pitched the ball to Maurice Hall, who ran into the corner of the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown.
But Michigan was not done. With one second left on the clock, the Wolverines were 24 yards from the end zone. All Michigan needed was one clutch play to secure the victory.
Sadly, it was not to be. Will Allen intercepted John Navarreā€™s pass short of the goal line, ending the game. The loss was frustrating for the Wolverines, who earned 26 first downs to just 13 for Ohio State. Unfortunately, the Wolverines were not able to complete any drives, a key point in the defeat.
A little more than a month later, the season ended on a high note for the Wolverines, as the offense found the warm Florida sun to its liking. Michigan topped the Florida Gators, 38-30, securing the Wolverinesā€™ 10th win of the season. The following season would bring new opportunitiesā€”and new gloryā€” for Michigan.
Looking Back is a Special Feature by Jeff Cummins Highlighting Key Rivalry Games
The second installment of this yearā€™s series looking back at the football rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State takes us to 2006. After a few subpar seasons, Michiganā€™s junior class was finally meshing, and the Michigan football team was living up to its potential. Down in Columbus, the the Ohio State Buckeyes were also hitting on all cylinders, setting up a showdown for the ages.
Just days before the game, former Michigan coach Bo Schembechler passed away, changing the tone of the matchup. Suddenly, some Buckeyes were mildly sympathetic to Michigan. Michigan coach Lloyd Carr chose not to use Schembechlerā€™s passing as a motivational tool to spark the Wolverines, a decision that could easily be debated. The atmosphere was already charged; both teams entered the game with perfect records. Ohio State was ranked No. 1 in both polls, and Michigan was ranked second. The pregame hype for the 2006 game surpassed any other meeting in the series history.
Once the game began, Michigan drew first blood. Quarterback Chad Henne established a consistent connection with receiver Mario Manningham, and Mike Hart scored on a 1-yard run to give the Wolverines the first lead, much to the dismay of the vociferous throng in Ohio Stadium.
The battle raged back and forth over three hours. Ohio State took a significant lead, but Michigan fought back. Late in the game, Henne connected with tight end Tyler Ecker for a 16-yart touchdown pass, and then followed that with a completion to Steve Breaston for a 2-point conversion. Suddenly, Michigan trailed by only three points.
Unfortunately, the Wolverines never got any closer. The play that bothers Michigan fans to this day came with Ohio State leading, 35-31, with less than seven minutes remaining in the game. On 3rd down and 15, Michigan defensive end Shawn Crable was penalized for hitting Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith with his helmet during a tackle, extending an Ohio State drive. Crableā€™s infraction gave Ohio State new life in a matchup in which one mistake could easily alter the outcome.
The irony is that neither team ended up winning the National Championship that season. Ohio State fell to eventual champion Florida, while Michigan fell flat in the Rose Bowl, losing to USC, 32-18. Many of the stars from that Michigan team returned for their senior years in 2007, but the 2006 team was probably the final legitimate chance for Carr to win a second National Championship.
Thanks to YouTube, ESPN, and YouTube poster Dave R for the broadcast of this game. As always, we own nothing and this blog post is intended strictly for the enjoyment of readers.
Last January, Phil and I discussed a comparison of Jim Harbaughā€™s 4-year coaching record to the last 4 years of Lloyd Carrā€™s coaching career (Harbaugh and Carr each had an advantage in 7 metrics, with 3 ties).Ā My general feeling was that Harbaugh had returned Michigan to the level at which Lloyd had left it. In my eyes, that made the 2019 season pivotal for the Harbaugh era.Ā Phil and I wondered whether the program would continue to rise, and I was certainly optimistic.
Now, in February of 2020, we have more information to process, and we can complete a 5-year analysis. After Michigan completed a frustrating 9-4 season in 2019, and the 2003 Big Ten Championship season (10-3) gets added to the Carr side of the ledger, the comparison swings in Lloyd Carrā€™s favor. Carr has an advantage on 7 metrics, Harbaugh in 4, with 2 ties. The advanced metrics were ignored for lack of 2003 & 2004 data, but Lloydā€™s 3-year average would have been 3 more wins for him. This seemed like bad news for a Harbaugh optimist like myself. So, I wanted to extend the comparison to see how the Harbaugh era, as it stands right now, compares to some other notable college football coaches.
METHOD
In addition to Lloyd Carr, I chose these coaches to compare to Harbaugh: Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer, Mark Dantonio, Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney, Brian Kelly, James Franklin, & Chris Petersen. From the Carr comparison, my curiosity immediately jumped to Jim Tresselā€™s final five seasons at Ohio State. After completing that comparison, I wanted a better apples-to-apples comparison so I wanted to use the first five seasons (of their current tenure) for the rest of the coaches I selected. In addition to comparing the coachesā€™ records through their first five seasons, I also wanted to be able to use consistent metrics. The advanced statistical rankings didnā€™t exist back into the early 2000s, and recruiting has also changed significantly since then. Each metric was compared head-to-head with Harbaughā€™s results to create an Advantage %. Records and stats came from Sports-Reference.com. Recruiting rankings came from 247sports.com. F+, FEI, & S&P+ rankings come from FootballOutsiders.com. Here are the 17 metrics that I compared:
Final Rankings in F+, FEI, & SP+ systems (SP+ now on ESPN in 2019)
Overall W-L record
Offensive Pass Yds / Game & Rush Yds / Game
Points Scored / Game
Defensive Pass Yds / Game & Rush Yds / Game allowed
Defense Points Allowed / Game
Big Ten W-L record (if applicable)
W-L Record vs. OSU (or record vs. Michigan for OSU coaches)
W-L Record vs. MSU (record vs. Michigan for Dantonio)
W-L Record vs. Notre Dame (record vs. Michigan for Kelly)
W-L Record in Bowl Games
Number of NFL Draftees
Recruiting Class Rank (cycle following the season)
RESULTS
ANALYSIS
The summary table above lists the coaches from least favorable comparison for Jim Harbaugh (Jim Tressel – final 5 seasons) to most favorable (James Franklin) sorting by ascending Harbaugh Advantage Percentage. Using this method, Jim Harbaugh falls between Lloyd Carr (final 5 seasons) and Chris Petersenā€™s 5-year tenure at Washington.
If we only look at the initial 5-year start for each coach (removing Tressel & Carr), itā€™s clear that Nick Saban and Urban Meyer are in a league of their own. Urb won a national title during the first playoff season in year 3, and made a return to the playoff in year 5. Saban won his 2nd national title at Alabama in year five, and went back-to-back in year six.
Once you move past those two historically successful coaches, there is a very tight grouping between Jim Harbaugh and the other 5 coaches I selected. Each coach averaged a 9-4 record through his first 5 seasons. I was surprised that using my Advantage Percentage, Harbaugh compares favorably to all 5 of those coaches, despite Brian Kelly reaching the BCS Championship game in year 3. I also included each coachā€™s Year 6 record for a possible glimpse into the future. Year 6 results range from unacceptable (7-6 for Dantonio) to achievable (11-2 in 2019 for Franklin).
One other interesting note on Big Ten record: If Harbaugh had managed one more B10 victory, his average record would have rounded up to 7-2, and it would have been +1 over Carr. Had he suffered one more loss, the average record would have rounded to 6-3 and been -1 to Carr. The program has clearly returned to the Carr level. I think weā€™re all very anxious to take the next step forward.
Some day, sooner rather later, we will look back and wonder how the NCAA lasted as long as it did.
The NCAA is a gang whose members split up the loot generated from basketball and football to curry favor with alumni and pay for their non-revenue sports programs.
As long as the memberĀ institutionsĀ played by the rules, most everyone was happy.
