By the Numbers: Game 7 @ Illinois

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines couldn’t hold a 4th quarter lead against the Washington Huskies as they headed into the bye week.  Eventually the big plays allowed by the defense, and two costly turnovers by the offense, fueled Washington’s 27-17 victory

NEXT UP: @ Illinois: SP+ 47th, 6.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 4.9, Michigan Win Probability 62%

As Michigan rested last week, the Illini were sweating out a 1-point overtime victory over SP+ 82nd ranked Purdue.  I think both the SP+ model and the Vegas odds would have favored the 5-1 Illinois at home if not for that eye-opener against the Boilermakers. 

Michigan Offense (63rd) vs. Illinois Defense (43rd) 

Surprisingly, the Illinois defense provides an advantageous match up for the Wolverines.  The Illini have given up 239 yards rushing in each of their last two games to Purdue and to Penn State  This could be exactly what the doctor ordered for a Michigan offensive line that has yet to click as a unit.  While the Wolverines have had a couple big rushing performances in 2024, they still are searching for consistency.  In Jack Tuttle’s first start for Michigan, their ability to lean on a high success rate in the run game should open throwing lanes to Coleston Loveland and Amorion Walker down the field.  Hopefully left tackle #78 Myles Hinton is back in the starting lineup.  He is the one Michigan lineman who has been able to move defenders off the line of scrimmage regularly. 

Michigan Defense (9th) vs. Illinois Offense (58th)

Early in the season, my assumption was that Michigan’s defensive struggles were mostly due to lack of offensive success putting the D into bad spots.  While that was certainly happening, it was not the case in the Washington loss.  The Huskies put up a gaudy 47% success rate against the Michigan defense, including 45% success on 3rd down.  The Wolverines need their playmakers to step forward in the biggest moments.  Hopefully the bye week helped a few key players heal, especially edge rusher #8 Derrick Moore.  Illinois quarterback Luke Altmeyer has been fantastic this season.  His only poor performance was the one loss for the Illini at Penn State.  The Michigan defensive front will be able to win 1-on-1 against this offensive line, but coordinator Wink Martindale will have to do a better job of pairing disguised coverages with his rushes.  If Altmeyer is allowed to make simple decisions and get the ball out of his hand quickly, this game could look a lot like the Washington game. 

PREDICTION: Most of the focus locally and nationally seems to be on the Michigan offense as they trot out their 3rd starting QB of the season.  While that is understandable, this game will be decided by Michigan’s defense.  Our preseason predictions were looking for an elite defense to lead the Wolverines while a new offensive lineup figured things out.  The offense has a golden opportunity to reestablish a dominant run game, so I am placing the focus squarely on the defense to be elite.  For now, I will predict that the Wolverine defensive front will cause just enough havoc to allow Michigan to escape Champaign with a victory. 
Michigan 24 Illinois 21 (PRESEASON Michigan 20 Illinois 7)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 10/13/24, 4-2

SP+ Overall: 21st (↑6), 13.7
SP+ Offense: 63rd (↑5), 28.1
SP+ Defense: 9th (↑3), 14.8
SP+ Special Teams: 11th (↓2), 0.4

AP Poll: 24th (same), 133

Coaches’ Poll: 22nd (↓1), 223

CFP Rank: N/A

Michigan 42 Illinois 25 – Week 7 Recap

WEEK 7 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 42-25, Michigan by 17 over Illinois
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 15.4 (+1.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 21 (-4)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 7 RECAP @ Illinois

I answered the question I heard most this week consistently. When I heard, “What do you want to see against Illinois?”  I said a clean, fast start on the road.  Be careful what you wish for.  We definitely saw a fast start. Michigan jumped out to a 28-0 lead in the second quarter.  The Wolverines had doubled Illinois’ total yardage at that point. Then the third quarter arrived, and fans remembered suddenly that Michigan still has issues.  I don’t think most of the fan base is going to feel any better after that 42-25 victory over the Illini.

Offensively, there was a clear commitment to running game from the start.   Michigan ran on 66% of their 68 plays. That represents the highest run ratio of 2019.  It seems the offensive line was challenged to steady the struggling offense, and they answered the call.  The 6.5 yards per rush today is nearly a full yard more than the previous high of 5.8 versus MTSU in Week 1.  When we pair that explosiveness with a 56% success rate on run plays, the Wolverines had a clear identity today.  Shea Patterson added 194 yards passing and 4 touchdowns (1 rush).

Reading that text implies that it was a great day for the offense.  Unfortunately, that is not the case. The fumbles continue to plague Michigan. They put it on the deck officially 3 more times today and lost 2.   A fourth fumble by Christian Turner didn’t make the box score because he was ruled down by contact. At a minimum, this offense was more explosive, but fumble-itis still appears to be a potential fatal flaw.

For the defense, Michigan was again dominant for 3 of the 4 quarters of this game.  Coming out of half time, while the offense could not move or hold onto the ball, the defense wore down.  Illinois was on the field for 24 plays in the third quarter, and Michigan only 11. During that stretch and into the fourth quarter, Illinois scored 25 unanswered points and cut the lead to just a field goal.  Finally, multiple senior leaders stepped up and made big plays to save the Wolverines. A strip sack by Jordan Glasgow, another strip sack by Mike Danna evened the turnover margin. That response allowed the offense to take advantage of the short field and create some breathing room.  

Michigan has now completed half the regular season.  I predicted the Wolverines would be 5-1 at this point, but something still feels off.  So far, this season feels like driving a car with the check engine light on, and the smell of burning oil in the air.  We are still moving forward toward the destination, but there is an ominous feeling that this thing could blow up at any moment.  The coming week is absolutely gigantic, and will be pivotal for the 2019 season. This staff and these players must get under the hood and tighten up all the loose connections and seal the leaks.  These Wolverines will need all systems functional to have any chance against Penn State. Once we get to the White Out on Saturday night, Michigan must press the gas pedal to the floor and pray for the best.   

By the Numbers: Week 7 @ Illinois

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan powered through Iowa in a 10-3 defensive struggle.  Some questions were answered on defense, but many remain for the offensive staff.

NEXT UP: @ Illinois: 71st, -0.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 15.4, Michigan Win Probability 81%
The Wolverines are back into a spot where only under-performance against the Illini will garner any attention.  If they manage to win by 3+ scores, the caveats will lead every conversation.

Michigan Offense (66th) vs. Illinois Defense (82nd) 
Josh Gattis gets a second opportunity for a “get right game”.  This Illinois defense currently ranks twelve spots behind the Rutgers unit that gave up 52 points in the Big House.  I expect this week’s offensive strategy to mirror what we saw against the Scarlet Knights. Shea Patterson will be moving out of the pocket and the Big 3 receivers will be mixing and matching on a handful of downfield route combos.  Michigan will attempt to run only a handful of play types out of multiple formations and personnel groupings. The challenge will be to execute plays consecutively. I’d like to see a very specific script in the first quarter that let’s each play maker touch the ball at least once.  The concepts that work should come back in the second quarter forward.

Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Illinois Offense (54th)
Illinois’ offensive coordinator, Rod Smith, just watched Don Brown flood Iowa’s backfield with varying blitz packages to rattle Nate Stanley.  How will the Illini adjust to what they’ve seen on tape? I expect to see max protection packages on the majority of snaps. That means limited short route combinations that require a quick release.  And if Brandon Peters cannot play in this game, then Smith will try to use the legs of either freshman QB Isiah Williams or freshman QB Matt Robinson to flee from Aidan Hutchinson and Kwity Paye (Salt & Pepper). I cannot envision a scenario where Illinois can march down the field on sustained drives.  To make any impact on the scoreboard, the Illini will need explosive plays or turnovers from their defense to play on a short field.

PREDICTION: Illinois’ offense was ranked 54th in SP+ in the preseason and are still right in that spot.  However, the previous five games were started by Brandon Peters. Don Brown’s group will be teeing off this week.  For Michigan, the real challenge of this game is getting off to a quick start on the road. In 2018 Michigan averaged minus-7 to the SP+ projection in road games.  I still have to see the Wolverines respond effectively to adversity on the road before I can predict success ahead of time. I’ll keep my expected offensive prediction from the preseason, but the Illini aren’t going to reach the end zone twice. 
Michigan 27 Illinois 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 Illinois 14)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (10/7/2019), 4-1

  • SP+ Overall: 17th (↓4), 17.6
    • SP+ Offense: 66th (↓18), 28.5
    • SP+ Defense: 2nd (↑4), 11.1
    • SP+ Sp. Teams 37th (↓33) 0.1
  • AP Poll: 16th (↑3), 618
  • Coaches’ Poll: 16th (↑2), 648
  • CFP Rank: N/A

M FOOTBALL 2012: EVERY BIG TEN GAME A CHAMPIONSHIP GAME-MICHIGAN 45, ILLINOIS 0.

By Andy Andersen

FINALLY MSU, THE BIG TEST, IS NEXT!

The Wolverines avoided what well might have been a “trap” game in pounding the University of Illinois late Saturday afternoon.  Sandwiched between what was considered at the time to be a very good Purdue team in last Saturday’s Big Ten opener, and just before the game of the year against the Green Meanies from the East, Illinois was considered easy pickings by some. Quite probably because of their lackluster 2-4 win/loss record prior to arriving in Ann Arbor, with an offense generally considered to be ineffective, and a talented but underachieving defense. 

Game Photos

The Wolverine Coaches and player spokesmen all reiterated the mantra cited in the title, which is another, if more elegant, way of stating the oft used coach speak of “one game at a time”.  No Michigan State talk was allowed prior to the Illini’s appearance, although some media tried mightily to evoke a response regarding the Spartans, but only succeeded in trying Hoke’s patience on the subject.  When Hoke was asked about the subject post Illini, the answer from him, and the players was tomorrow. 

Saturday’s results proved the team must have realized the wisdom of that counsel, and must have realized that their opponents would bring their “A” game, if the Wolverines allowed it, no matter the hype or lack of hype preceding the competition.    

No doubt some M players remember participating in that dreadful 2009 loss at Illinois which deep sixed a season, 13-38.  It was a watershed game which helped destroy the Rodriguez regime by setting up a disastrous season, and some certainly remember the remarkable game a year later that broke scoring records in M’s triple overtime win, 67 to 65.  While it was entertaining and an exciting game to watch, both teams proved that defense was a thing of the past for each of them that year.   

 

It is remarkable how far M’s defense has come from 2009 to last Saturday.  And a great deal of that improvement is in the form of a determined defensive Wolverine, Jake Ryan.  Credit him with 7 solo tackles, and four assists, for a remarkable total of 11 tackles, and 4.5 tackles for loss.  He is a remarkable blend of speed, agility, and the desire to hit.  But it is his motor that may be most obvious.  Jake takes his football seriously.  LB Kenny Demens played well, gathering in an interception, making 3 solo tackles with 5 assists for a total of eight tackles.  

Desmond Morgan’s stats were almost as good.  He has been assigned the Legend’s Number 48, which honor’s a great Wolverine center, Gerald Ford.  That Desmond calls Grand Rapids home as did Gerald Ford, is a coincidence. Quinton Washington is seriously contributing as are the DBs.    And so is Greg Mattison, obviously providing extensive experience and grey matter to the defensive success.

The 13 points allowed in the three prior games seems valid proof of team defensive progress.  Before Saturday the Wolverines led the Big Ten in pass defense, and were seventh nationally.  I haven’t checked, but I assume they still do.

Coach Hoke on the defense…”The guys were well prepared. Part of that was Kenny Demens on his interception. We had worked the route. He had seen the formation. (Linebackers coach) Mark Smith did a great job with him, teaching. He jumped the route. He knew what the play was going to be. It tells you about the kids and the teachers they have as coaches, who are doing a great job with them. I think we played hard. We will look at film tomorrow, or even tonight, and we’ll know a little bit more. But, I thought we were a very physical football team.”

PREGAME/POSTGAME

If there is a lack of Illinois offensive capability, it was not in the form of Nathan Scheelhasse as he is their bright spot, as he was in 2010, and prior years.   He can throw to their best receiver, Ryan Lankford, and there are other offensive players that can help the experienced Big Ten quarterback.  But that offense  was generally thought to not be enough to whip the Wolverines at home.  Prior to Saturday, the Illini were outscored 82-28 in the second half. Actuality:  The Illinois nightmare continued, with the Wolverines putting 45 to zip on the board.  Now it is 127 to 28. 

Nathan has put up tons of points in his career, but Illinois is in the first year of Tim Beckman’s head coaching tenure, and there is a new offensive coordinator. Some Illini are missing former Head Coach Ron Zook. Actuality:  Scheelhasse’s influence on the out-come of this game was limited because of injury in the second quarter.  Both Illini QBs managed to throw 7 completions for 29-yards.  On the ground they had 37 attempts for 105-yards.  Their receivers dropped catchable passes. 

Coach Beckman has been beleaguered in his earl tenure at Illinois.  First for trying to benefit by gathering strays from the distraught Penn State herd of incumbent players when they were first beset by their program’s well-advertised misfortunes. More recently he was caught with a “chaw” during a game, which is strictly verboten. He has apologized, but the Big Ten remains firm, and will not install spittoons, brass or otherwise, on the sidelines, even in the cause of sanitation.  Actuality:  Saturday’s loss to the Wolverines did little to enhance his coaching resume at Illinois.  It appears the Illini are struggling as much as any team in the Big Ten, right now, and probably more. 

Their defense is experienced and talented, but its players have been labeled underachievers this year.  Would they break out this game?  Actuality: The Wolverines ran 51 times for 353-yards and 4 TDs.  Robinson got two of them, Rawls one, and Toussaint got one. The Illinois defense did not break out, but continued to struggle the entire game.  Underachievers still describes their defense. 

There was speculation as to the type of passing game M would deploy.  Would they try to throw downfield and abandon the basic passing game they used against Purdue, or use both.  Actuality: Jeremy Gallon streaked 71-yards to a TD in his only catch early in the game. Roy Roundtree had a single 33-yard catch, and could have had more had he not dropped a couple. Gardner, Toussaint, Dileo, J. Robinson, Funchess, Esterline and Rawls all had one catch.  Funchess scored on an 8-yard catch near the corner of the south end zone, and a thing of beauty it was.  Seldom used Dylan Esterline had a 7-yard catch near the end of the game, and his teammates were still patting him on the back as they approached the tunnel. 

Could they run by getting Fitzgerald Toussaint revved up, or would they in desperation try Thomas Rawls earlier in the game. Hoke made a reasonably plausible excuse for Fitz’s non production at West Lafayette stating Purdue chose to stop Fitz, and let Denard go because of Fitz’s 170-yards against them last year.  Time will verify or deny the plausibility of that premise. That Fitz would start is reinforced by the stated policy of Coach Borges which endorses one designated tail back to get most of the carries, but that doesn’t mean the clock isn’t ticking for Fitz as crunch time is now. Actuality: Fitz started and both Fitz and Thomas Rawls had carries.  Fitz gained 66-yards on 18 carries and had one TD. Thomas had 9 carries for 90-yards, with a 63-yard TD run.  I hope we see Rawls more in short yardage situations as Fitz did not score twice on one series from about the two.  Vincent Smith did not play, suffering from a tweaked hamstring. 

Coach Hoke on the improved play of the tailbacks:  “(Thomas) Rawls is a difficult guy to tackle. In the spring, he punished us a bit and in fall camp. I think Thomas is improving and he’s really grasped more of the offense, when you get into protections and passing games. Then you get to Fitz (Toussaint). There were two runs, to be honest with you. I thought that he maybe danced a little bit, but there were some runs where he really went vertical, north and south, made a cut and went downhill.” 

Will there be offensive line issues?  Did they adequately run block, and pass protect?  Avoid penalties?  Actuality:  They were adequate, and workmanlike. 45 points helps prove it, as does 527-yards of total offense.  

THE GAME IN BRIEF: 

The Illni received and the Wolverine defense slowly forced a punt.  On their 5th play Jeremy Gallon snared a Denard pass and galloped 71-yards for the game winner.  This reception was Gallon’s career long and longest scrimmage play of the season.  M went up 7-zip.  

Then the Wolverines produced a 65-yard, 9 play drive, ending in an 18- yard field goal. 10-zip. 

After Illinois missed a 50-yard FG, Denard went magic and produced a 33-yard run and a TD from 6-yards out. M 17-Illini 0.  Denard injured a hand during the quarter, but returned for the second half. 

Denard celebrated his return to action by engineering a six play drive that ended with Denard scampering 49-yards for his second rushing score.  This was a remarkable run featuring his ability to escape with quickness, agility, and speed. M 24-Illini 0. 

Early in the third quarter,  Kenny Demens stepped up and grabbed his first career interception on a magnificent play in which he appeared to recognize exactly which route was coming. Denard hit TE Devin Funchess with a high and highly accurate pass that Devin collared, and managed to get the necessary foot down in bounds. M 31-Illini 0. 

The Jake Ryan freight train then caused a fumble, and Mario Ojemudia recovered. Fitz Toussaint finished with a dive into the end zone.  M 37- Illini 0. 

Thomas Rawls rolled round right end for a 63-yard score, and that’s all there was.  Game over.  M 45- Illini 0. 

This was another good step up the championship ladder with disaster averted by a wide margin, on a rainy, dreary, cloudy day, with a constantly slippery football due to conditions.  The weather did not hamper the Blast From The Past. 

Again it was a Denard Robinson day. With 41 rushing TDs, Denard became the eighth player in NCAA history to rush for 40 TDs and throw for 40 TDs. 

Many off the bench played.  Among them were offensive players Esterline, Kwiatowski, Williams, Mateus, Burzynski (Barnum injured), Gunderson, Bellomy, Kennedy, Hayes, Kerridge, Glascow, Houma, Jackson and Reynolds. 

Defensively they were: Clark, Ojemudia (fumble recovery), Pipkens, Ash, Black, Heitzman, C. Gordon, Bolden, Ross, J.Wilson, and M. Robinson (a leader on special teams he blasted down a return man before the ball got there, thereby achieving the moarre spectacular penalties of the day). 

This is great for both team morale and individual technique. 

Finally, the slug fest that is the Michigan State game is at hand.  They will roll into Ann Arbor smarting from their usual perceived slights from the University of Michigan, and their most recent loss at Iowa.  Last year MSU won its many close games.  In a couple of instances that has not been true this year.    

It is up to the 133rd edition of the Wolverines to keep it that way.

 

Go Blue!

M Football 2011-Wolverine Offense Shines, Struggles-Defense Shines-Eight Season Wins Achieved-More Wins Wanted

By Andy Andersen

Michigan faced their venerable old Big Ten foe, Illinois in Champaign Saturday. While Illinois featured no Red Grange, or Dick Butkus, and the Wolverines no Tom Harmon or Charles Woodson in their lineups, there was a strenuous competition with plenty of talent on the field for both sides.  Michigan’s Denard Robinson and Jason Scheelhasse can provide football fireworks with the best of them.   One hundred thirty two points in last year’s three overtime 67-65 classic is all the proof needed.

There was plenty at stake this year.  The Wolverines are still in the Legends chase statistically, although that possibility became more moot with the loss last week to Iowa.  They needed desperately to add to their 7 wins on the season to erase visions of similarity with their slides the past three years.

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