Tag: 2020

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Michigan 11 Wisconsin 49 – Week 4 Recap

WEEK 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 11-49, Wisconsin by 38 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Wisconsin by 9.8 (-28.2)
CD Projection: Wisconsin by 17 (-21)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 4 RECAP vs. Wisconsin

Michigan fans were dispirited heading into this game, and somehow feel worse limping out of it.  It’s time to figure out what the plan for 2021 is, I think.  I will keep the analysis brief, because I am not one to blow smoke.

Offensively, I will summarize like this: both of Michigan’s scoring drives happened while the scoreboard determined that it was technically garbage time.  28-0 in the 3rd quarter, Jim Harbaugh was forced to send Quinn Nordin in to kick a mercy field goal on 4th & 10.  By the time Cade McNamara hit three chunk plays through the air in the 4th quarter, it was 35-3 and those stats will also be removed from the data.

Defensively, at least the problems tonight were different than the last two weeks…?  The corners finally looked serviceable, but with both Kwity Paye and Aidan Hutchinson out, the Wolverines failed to set an edge from start to finish.  RBs and WRs rushed the ball outside with ease.  When the Badgers did need to throw, Graham Mertz found easy connections in the flat where LBs could not cover.

It’s extremely frustrating to look less prepared than the team that had their last two games canceled during a 10-day shutdown due to a COVID breakout.  I don’t know what the right answer is, but it’s time to start asking the hard questions.

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By the Numbers: Week 4 vs. Wisconsin

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines fell flat against Indiana, losing 38-21 in Bloomington.   The loss increased considerable hot seat conversations for multiple Michigan coaches.

NEXT UP: vs. Wisconsin: 4th, 25.7

PREGAME SP+: Wisconsin by 9.8, Michigan Win Probability 29%
As a predictive system, the SP+ numbers are really handcuffed by Wisconsin.  They have only played one game, and could be missing numerous players to COVID protocol.  However, given Michigan’s struggles, the projected margin has increased by about two points since the Big Ten preseason.

Michigan Offense (30th) vs. Wisconsin Defense (2nd) 
The first question of many for the Wolverines: who are the healthiest offensive lineman?  Michigan has struggled desperately to find success in the run game in their two losses.  Even if they had the week one offensive line, the yards would be tough to come by against the Badgers’ defensive front.  Strategically, I’m still looking for Josh Gattis to utilize his skill guys to put edge defenders into conflict.  If those types of plays bring the defensive backs up into press, we need to see the fastest WRs like Roman Wilson stretch the field vertically.

Michigan Defense (19th) vs. Wisconsin Offense (12th)
This matchup is a total wild card.  Michigan is limping through key injuries up front to Aidan Hutchinson and possibly to Kwity Paye.  Missing key pass rushers does not bode well for a team trying to support struggling cover corner guys.  At the same time, Wisconsin will either have their fourth-string quarterback under center, or a QB returning from foot surgery (Jack Coan), or a redshirt freshman returning from COVID isolation (Graham Mertz).  With so much unknown in this matchup, I expect Don Brown to double down on his aggressive philosophy.  That means blitzers from all directions, and could be another challenge to some young CBs trying to make a name for themselves like freshman Andre Seldon.

PREDICTION: Sometimes the different metric systems like SP+ cannot “see” the important mitigating factors from week to week.  This game between struggling Michigan, and virus-depleted Wisconsin seems like it is wholly made up of unknown mitigating factors.  Amidst all that chaos, I am expecting that the more experienced and higher-ranked defense for the Badgers will be the greatest difference.  The Wolverines will need to find some big plays, maybe on special teams, to upset the Badgers.
Michigan 20 Wisconsin 37 (PRESEASON Michigan 17 Wisconsin 23)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/10/2020), 1-2

SP+ Overall: 18th (↓2), 14.0
SP+ Offense: 30th (↓1), 34.0
SP+ Defense: 19th (↓6), 19.9
SP+ Special Teams: 104th (↓27), -0.2

AP Poll: NR (23rd), 0

Coaches’ Poll: NR (25th), 0

CFP Rank: N/A

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Michigan 21 Indiana 38 – Week 3 Recap

WEEK3 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-38, Indiana by 17 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 2.1 (-19.1)
CD Projection: Michigan by 1 (-18)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 3 RECAP @ Indiana

For the second week in a row, Michigan was outplayed and lost.  In some sense you have to give the Hoosiers the respect they deserve.  That doesn’t help soothe the deep disappointment for this team.  Jim Harbaugh must go back to the drawing board and get all his guys onto the same page.  If he cannot keep the team together through this challenging season, it will be hard for me to believe he can restore the program.

The Michigan offensive line was behind the eight ball right away without both starting tackles.  The running game was only able to produce an 8% success rate, and 1.6 yards per play.  On the first watch, I didn’t see very much read-option, if at all.  I don’t know why there is such hesitation to use Joe Milton in the run game, but it’s clearly been taken out of the game plan.  I will give Gattis and Joe Milton a lot of credit for bouncing back in the second half.  The offense was dangerous enough in the 2nd half to threaten the whole field, but still couldn’t click in the most critical spots.

The Hoosiers copied the Michigan State offensive game plan of chuck and hope versus the Michigan corners.  It was almost as successful this week.  There was a clear commitment to back off into more zone coverages to take some heat off Vincent Gray and Gemon Green.  Indiana was able to find large holes and Michael Penix had a career day.  There was pressure on Penix, and Michigan caused some errant throws.  This was despite Aiden Hutchinson leaving with an apparent foot or ankle injury in the first quarter.   The defense managed to slow Indiana down in the 2nd half, but could not get off the field on key plays.  Indiana ran 87 snaps on offense, compared to just 52 for Michigan.

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By the Numbers: Week 3 @ Indiana

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan State upset the Wolverines 27-24, as Michigan was outplayed at home in stunning fashion by their rivals. 

NEXT UP: @ Indiana: 25th, 11.5

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 2.1, Michigan Win Probability 55%
The Hoosiers are 2-0, and have performed pretty much as expected according to SP+.  The win over Penn State was a statistical anomaly.  Indiana would have lost if Penn State had taken a knee instead of handing off.  They were also kick-started by two short fields in the first half against Rutgers.

Michigan Offense (29th) vs. Indiana Defense (26th) 
The Michigan rushing attack will be my main offensive key on Saturday.  Indiana ranks 10th in Big Ten rushing yards allowed per game.  Michigan was able to produce a 48% success rate on called run plays versus Michigan State (ranked 7th in B1G rush yds/game).  Despite being somewhat successful, the offensive line had trouble adapting to how MSU  attacked their blocking scheme.  This produced far more negative yardage plays than Josh Gattis would like.  The Wolverines may also be dealing with some injuries up front, including their best lineman Jaylen Mayfield. 

Michigan Defense (13th) vs. Indiana Offense (33rd)
Regardless of which two Michigan cornerbacks get the start in Bloomington, I expect Don Brown to give them additional help from the safeties.  The success of MSU’s chuck-it-deep approach last week will definitely be imitated by the rest of the Big Ten teams versus Michigan.  The key questions I’ll be looking to answer: How well can Dax Hill and Brad Hawkins perform in coverage? Can the corners function in coverage without overtly grabbing the Indiana wide receivers?  Can the defensive line and blitzing linebackers get to QB Michael Penix before he can find the holes in more frequent zone coverage by the Wolverines?  

PREDICTION: Indiana has been pretty consistent through two weeks, and they are now 2-0 and ranked 13th nationally.  Michigan has already visited both ends of the performance and expectations spectrum.  No metric system can answer whether or not the 2020 Michigan team can bounce back from a shocking loss.  I expect a better-prepared and more enthusiastic showing this week, but the stat sheet might not reflect that.  This game could remind Michigan fans of last year’s Iowa game, a 10-3 home victory.  My advice is to focus on what really matters…win the game!
Michigan 28 Indiana 27 (PRESEASON Michigan 35 Indiana 20)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/2/2020), 1-1

SP+ Overall: 16th (↓7), 15.7
SP+ Offense: 29th (↓6), 33.6
SP+ Defense: 13th (↓3), 17.8
SP+ Special Teams: 77th (↓6), -0.1

AP Poll: 23rd (↓10), 151
Coaches’ Poll: 25th (↓11), 141
CFP Rank: N/A

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2020 Game 2 — Michigan 24 Michigan State 27 – Week 2 Recap

Now what?

WEEK 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 24-27, Michigan State by 3 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 19.2 (-22.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 45 (-48)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 2 RECAP vs. Michigan State

There wasn’t a huge turnover margin problem.  There was no hurricane or snow storm.  Michigan State outplayed Michigan and won the game in Ann Arbor.  That is the sad, brutal truth.  The most important question now has to be, “What is next?”

Joe Milton looked like a new starter.  He wasn’t bad, but there were problems with reading the defense in the pass game and the run game.  There were inaccurate throws, deep and intermediate.  The biggest difference this week was almost no explosion passing or running.  To really understand why these things are true, I need another review of the play on the field, and that’s going to have to wait a while.

Defensively there are two main issues: one was discussed ad nauseum by the FOX broadcast, and one was not.  We heard Gus Johnson & Joel Klatt keep calling out MSU’s advantage outside with their WRs versus Michigan’s CBs.  I am absolutely shocked the Spartans were able to make the plays they made, but I’ll tip my cap on two or three of those catches.  The other main issue was almost a total absence of pressure on Rocky Lombardi.  The MSU offensive line that gave up 12 (!) TFLs to Rutgers (!) in week one, kept their QB clean today versus the Wolverines.  That fact alone carries most of the water when I have to explain how I missed this prediction by 48 points.  I did not think we would see a clean jersey on Rocky Lombardi.   

Back to the drawing board for Jim Harbaugh and his staff.  The offensive game plan got major kudos last week, and this week seemed handcuffed.  The defensive personnel concerns that fans had from training camp at CB seemed unfounded versus Rashod Bateman last week.  This week they got torched by Ricky White.  I knew 2020 was going to be a crazy season, but still got totally rope-a-doped in this one.  Shame on me.