Tag: 2020

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2021 By the Numbers: Game 1 vs. Western Michigan

Michigan will need to put up points early and often for a couple reasons as the Wolverines kickoff the 2021 season against the WMU Broncos.

LAST WEEK RECAP

No game last week.  Here are links to the By the Numbers game-by-game preview and the season preview and game preview podcasts with Phil.

NEXT UP: vs. WMU: 72nd, 1.8

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 19, Michigan Win Probability 86%
Bill Connelly is on standby to adjust his model based on whether 2020 covid season data is correlated with early 2021 season performance.  Obviously Michigan fans are hoping that 2020 was an aberration.  The SP+ projected margin has increased from 16.5 to 19.0 since Connelly posted his preseason rankings.

Michigan Offense (28th) vs. WMU Defense (99th) 

We hear some clear themes coming from the Michigan offensive players and coaches as fall camp has shifted to game prep.  First, there will be a bolstered commitment to the run game.  On standard downs, the 2020 Wolverines were 50/50 between run and pass plays called.  Compare that to 2019, when Josh Gattis called 59% run plays, or to 2018 when Pep Hamilton et. al. called 68% run plays. 

Second, they want to start fast, and play from ahead.  Using Expected Points Added (EPA), the 2020 average offensive play actually improved from 2019 overall.  However, the 1st quarter split came back under zero! That means the average 1st quarter play in 2020 actually hurt the team’s chances of scoring points.  Gattis & the offense need to execute a clean game plan against Western’s 99th ranked defensive unit.  We absolutely must see balance, rhythm, and enough big plays to energize a fan base that is starving to reconnect with our favorite team.

Michigan Defense (10th) vs. WMU Offense (44th)

While the talk coming out of fall camp has been very positive, including being ranked #10 in SP+ on defense, I am still expecting to see significant growing pains from the defensive unit.  There will be a period of time early this season that Mike MacDonald will need to improve his feel for matching personnel groups to the opponent, while also signaling in calls from the sideline.  These things take repetition just like any other skill, and game day experience coordinating with coaches up in the booth is tough to simulate in practice.  We’ll also see execution mistakes from players on the field who are still learning the ins and outs of new positions, and young players who are seeing extended playing time for the first time. 

With all of that said, Michigan still has a significant talent advantage over the Broncos.  Also, Western has been forced to game plan using video from Baltimore Ravens games, and Tim Lester’s offensive staff is trying to guess what they’ll see just like we are.  I am bracing for a few eye-opening problems to cause concern with the fans at the Big House, but I expect Michigan’s most experienced and talented players will make enough key plays to secure a victory.  

PREDICTION: I am keeping my preseason prediction in place for the first game against Western Michigan.  All of our questions from the offseason are still valid.  I am encouraged by the optimism radiating from Schembechler Hall, but that is pretty standard fare for fall camp buzz.  I am looking for a solid performance out of the offense and special teams.  Those two units will have to give the new look Michigan defense some room for error.  I don’t expect the Wolverines to cover the spread.
Michigan 37 WMU 24 (Same as preseason)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/1/2021)

SP+ Overall: 17th, 18.3
SP+ Offense: 28th, 35.4
SP+ Defense: 10th, 17.1
SP+ Special Teams: N/A

AP Poll: NR

Coaches’ Poll: NR

CFP Rank: N/A

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Michigan 17 Penn State 27 – Week 6 Recap

WEEK 6 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 17-27, Penn State by 10 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Penn State by 1.0 (-9.0)
CD Projection: Michigan by 1 (-11)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 6 RECAP vs. Penn State

Offensively, the Wolverines lost their first-half rhythm when Cade McNamara left the game with a shoulder injury.  The broadcast team mentioned that Joe MIlton was also less than 100%, and he was unable to mount a charge.  The salt in the wound for this week was Michigan netted 174 rushing yards.  In my data set, they averaged 6.5 yards per run play (garbage time & sacks removed).  However, they could not sustain drives and continue to move the chains.  While McNamara was hurt, Hassan Haskins was inexplicably standing on the sideline.  This week, Josh Gattis was unable to scheme his WRs open, and Michigan could only muster a 28% success rate on pass plays. 

Defensively, I saw just about what I expected.  While the defensive line was boosted by Kwity Paye’s return, the defensive interior could not stand up to Penn State’s mediocre offensive line.  The Nittany Lions netted 254 rushing yards, and averaged 5.2 yards per run play in my data set.  Michigan needed a big stop after tightening the score to 20-17 in the 4th quarter.  The Wolverines were merely an annoyance to Penn State as they marched 75 yards in 5:00 to stretch the lead to 10.  I think the defensive staff has adjusted to help mitigate the huge plays against man coverage outside, and that is commendable.  I thought holding PSU under 30 would be enough to win, but instead James Franklin has his first win of 2020.

Last week, special teams hurt Michigan with 3 missed FGs.  This week, it was 2 muffed punts, one of which resulted in a turnover and a field goal for Penn State.  Michigan certainly missed Giles Jackson, who was the latest to hit the injury report.  This year cannot end soon enough.

Every problem that plagues Michigan right now is also weighing down the Nittany Lions.  The game was in Ann Arbor on a beautiful November day.  All the potential excuses have withered and Michigan is left with just one option: acknowledging that they don’t know how to win football games right now. 

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By the Numbers: Week 6 vs. Penn State

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines survived three OTs against Rutgers to win 48-42 on the road.  The offense did a near-180 degree turnaround under Cade McNamara.  The defense did not.

NEXT UP: vs. Penn State: 29th, 9.8

PREGAME SP+: Penn State by 1.0, Michigan Win Probability 48%
Michigan & Penn State both look radically different than anybody expected before the Big Ten kicked off in October.  Michigan has underperformed SP+ expectations on defense allowing an average of 12.8 points more than SP+ projections.  Penn State has underperformed on both sides of the ball.  The Nittany Lion defense gives up an average of 11.2 more points than projections.  Their offense has scored 6.6 points less than projected.

Michigan Offense (44th) vs. Penn State Defense (30th) 
Michigan may have answered a couple big questions on offense.  It looks like Hassan Haskins will get a larger share of the running back carries going forward.  Also, Josh Gattis seemed to have more plays that use post-snap reads at his disposal once Cade McNamara took over at quarterback.  Still, the largest question mark still looms: how healthy will the Wolverines’ offensive line be?  We asked the same question headed into the Rutgers game, but lost center Andrew Vastardis to injury instead of regaining Jaylen Mayfield or Ryan Hayes at tackle.  Regardless, this Penn State defense is also short handed and just gave up 34 points to Iowa (54th SP+ offense).

Michigan Defense (37th) vs. Penn State Offense (34th)
In my mind, this game will be decided in big moments while Penn State has the ball.  First, it’s critical for Michigan to get off to a solid start.  Penn State has yet to score more than 7 points in the first half in any game in 2020.  That includes games against Maryland (67th SP+ defense, PSU 19 points) and against Nebraska (76th SP+ defense, PSU 23 points).  Second, the Wolverines need to keep the Penn State quarterbacks uncomfortable.  If Don Brown can get back to using havoc and confusion to create turnovers, then the defensive unit could give their offensive teammates a big boost.  That may be too big an “IF” statement though, given the injuries stretching the defensive two deep perilously thin.

PREDICTION: Michigan should be able to string together successful offensive plays against this diminished Penn State defensive unit.  If I was confident that Michigan would have their best 5 offensive linemen healthy, I would feel much more comfortable heading into Saturday.  While we are starting to see a few playmakers emerge on offense, the Wolverines need some young defenders to step forward.  I will be looking for DT Chris Hinton, LB Michael Barrett, and S Daxton Hill to be difference makers during crunch time in Ann Arbor.

Michigan 28 Penn State 27 (PRESEASON Michigan 27 Penn State 21)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/24/2020), 2-3

SP+ Overall: 40th (↓13), 6.8
SP+ Offense: 44th (↓9), 31.6
SP+ Defense: 37th (↓11), 24.7
SP+ Special Teams: 81st (↑2), -0.1

AP Poll: NR (same), 0

Coaches’ Poll: NR (same), 0

CFP Rank: NR

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Michigan 48 Rutgers 42 – Week 5 Recap

WEEK 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 48-42 3OT, Michigan by 6 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 19.3 (-13.3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (✔)

FIVE FACTORS

WEEK 5 RECAP @ Rutgers

Admittedly, it felt weird to be treating a week 5 trip to Rutgers as a must win.  But, it absolutely was a must win game for Michigan, and for Jim Harbaugh.  They won, and that matters a lot.  There were still a litany of errors to correct for this coaching staff, and for these players.  But in the end, Michigan finally managed to make some key plays in big spots.  This will prove to be a memorable lesson in how to win for these players, especially those with very little game experience.

I hope everyone is prepared for a very fast transfer from the Joe Milton hype train to the Cade McNamara hype train.  McNamara looked very sharp after taking over for Milton in the second quarter.  He was 27-36 (75%) for 260 yards and 4 TDs.  Perhaps more importantly, once the offense forced Rutgers to defend the whole field, the running game was able to find some creases.  There is still a lot of work to do to bolster the depth while three of the five starting lineman recover from injuries.  Hassan Haskins seems to have stepped forward to gather more carries than the other three running backs.  However, Chris Evans had perhaps the play of the game on a 4th & 5 conversion in the 4th quarter.  Josh Gattis finally seemed to get into a rhythm for the first time since October 24th in Minneapolis.

On first glance, this game was a lot like the rest of the 2020 performances for Don Brown’s defensive unit.  There were still huge chunk plays given up through the air to a Rutgers QB who was averaging 5.3 yards per pass attempt coming in.  Rutgers managed 6.8 yards per called pass play tonight against Michigan.  There were a few glimmers of hope, however.  Early on, we saw a flash of speed off the ball from Chris Hinton.  If he emerges as an interior threat, this defense immediately improves.  We also saw Dax Hill make a technique correction from early in the game to the end.  In the 1st quarter, Dax made a passive play on a deep ball and the WR high-pointed a 43 yard bomb to set up Rutgers’ first score.  On the final play of the game, in a similar coverage technique, Dax left no doubt by going up high to snatch his first interception of the season. 

Giles Jackson continues to show his propensity for being a playmaker.  Today, it was as a kick returner.  His 95-yard touchdown return to open the 2nd half was a huge part of why Michigan was able to execute a comeback victory.  When Rutgers kicked away from Jackson, Blake Corum was very capable of converting short kicks into good field position also.  Michigan was very fortunate that their explosive return game was able to pick up the place kicking.  Three missed field goals nearly cost Michigan this game in regulation, and in overtime.  One missed field goal was affected by a poor snap, but the other two were clearly pushed right by Quinn Nordin.  I expect Michigan’s special teams unit will sink even lower in next week’s SP+ rankings.

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By the Numbers: Week 5 @ Rutgers

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan was steamrolled by the Wisconsin Badgers 49-11 in Ann Arbor.  Even with low expectations, the fan base was still mortified by the poor performance.

NEXT UP: @ Rutgers: 108th, -10.5

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 19.3, Michigan Win Probability 87%
A quick note: Bill Connelly’s content at ESPN has moved behind the ESPN+ paywall.  In addition to his rankings article I always link (PREGAME SP+ above), I’ll also share this article where Connelly discusses why SP+ missed on Michigan (the defense).  He mentioned that without preseason projections, the Wolverines would be in the 60s in SP+ overall ranking.  They are currently 27th overall.

Michigan Offense (35th) vs. Rutgers Defense (90th) 
Here is some bad news, then some good news, then some unknowns.  The bad news is Michigan’s offense has only looked viable in one game versus Minnesota.  The Gophers were the 44th ranked defense per SP+ heading into week 1, but have plummeted to 85th after four games.  The good news is the week 5 opponent is Rutgers and they are putting the 90th ranked defense out there on Saturday.  Will Michigan be able to mount any successful offensive rhythm this Saturday in prime time?  We won’t know much until we’ve seen whether the two OTs, Jaylen Mayfield and Ryan Hayes, are back in the lineup.  Also, we need to find out who steps forward at quarterback after Joe Milton was benched in favor of Cade McNamara last week.

Michigan Defense (26th) vs. Rutgers Offense (112th)
Rutgers has been boom or bust from drive to drive this season.  They have scored at least 20 points in every game, including 27 against Ohio State.  They were able to cash in on Michigan State’s 7 turnovers to score 38 in week one.  However, in terms of efficiency and explosiveness, they are still lacking severely and have slipped to 112th in offensive SP+.  I expect they will attack Michigan the same way the last three opponents have.  They will test the corners deep down the sidelines.  Also, running back Isaih Pacheco will run right at the edge defenders who struggled so mightily against Wisconsin.  

PREDICTION: This may very well be Jim Harbaugh’s last stand.  A loss to Rutgers will signal that the 2020 team may have decided to pack it in.  While I do expect to see many frustrating plays on both sides of the ball, I don’t think the program will roll over.  I am prepared to see a close game throughout, but in the 4th quarter Michigan’s playmakers will have to step forward.  I would feel better about this prediction if I knew for certain who those playmakers are.

Michigan 33 Rutgers 27 (PRESEASON Michigan 41 Rutgers 10)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/17/2020) 1-3

SP+ Overall: 27th (↓9), 10.7
SP+ Offense: 35th (↓5), 33.0
SP+ Defense: 26th (↓7), 22.2
SP+ Special Teams: 83rd (↑21), -0.1

AP Poll: NR (same), 0

Coaches’ Poll: NR (same), 0

CFP Rank: N/A