Let’s break down Michigan’s first touchdown versus Wisconsin in their 38-17 victory.
The Wolverines execute a textbook example of flea flickers pass. They line up in an I-formation with two wide outs. Roman Wilson goes in motion pre-snap and the Wisconsin defensive back #21 goes with him, clearing out the left side of the field.
Look at what Cade sees pre-snap. You can #9 the safety already cheating up.
#25 Hassan Haskins is lined up behind Cade to take the hand-off post snap. By lining strong right the Wolverines cause the Wisconsin defense to shifts attackers away from the center of Michigan formation. The Michigan offensive line must prevent any defender from getting to Haskins before he can flip the ball back to McNamara. Michigan has five offensive lineman to counter Wisconsin’s nose tackle, defensive linemen, and defensive end (4).
This play targets the safety #9, who overcommits to the run when he see #25 Hassan Haskins take the hand-off from #12 Cade McNamara.
#9 comes up to cover the run and he shifts to cover #14 Roman Wilson when the he recognizes that something is afoot. #6 Cornelius Johnson takes off to the left corner of the endzone. #21 from Wisconsin who had gone in motion to cover #14 Wilson shifts to cover Johnson but he is too late, getting turned around with his back to the play in an effort to close the gap. #11 shadows mirrors Johnson but can’t match his speed.
Final Score: 38-17, Michigan by 21 over Wisconsin SP+ Projection: Michigan by 1 (+20) CD Projection: Wisconsin by 3 (+24)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 5 RECAP @ Wisconsin
Michigan now stands a perfect 5-0 after beating Wisconsin convincingly 38-17 in Madison. While nobody would call this a perfect performance for the Wolverines, this team showed mental toughness on the road that previous teams of the Jim Harbaugh era lacked. Michigan got off to a great start in the 1st quarter and never gave the Badgers any reprieve. When key plays needed to be made, various players managed to step up to the challenge. By the 4th quarter Wisconsin had suffered too many key injuries on offense and became totally one dimensional. The vaunted Badger defense also wore down early in the 4th quarter and finally conceded a handful of explosive plays to the Wolverines.
Offensively, Josh Gattis and his staff surprised me. I expected another conservative game plan. I thought Michigan would want to manage the offense to avoid risk in an effort to challenge the Badger offense’s execution problems this season. Instead, the Wolverines displayed their most balanced attack of the season running 54% of the time and passing 46% of the time (garbage time removed at the end). Cade McNamara finished 17-28 for 197 yards and 2 TDs. More importantly, I think, Gattis showed he was willing to stretch the defense vertically down the field once again. Keeping the pressure on the Wisconsin safeties deep helped create just enough room underneath, and unclogged the box just a bit for the run game.
The FOX broadcast team showered Michigan’s defense with a lot of love, and rightfully so. Wisconsin was only able to run 9 plays in the 1st quarter, and started the game with 4 straight 3-and-out drives. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz showed a lot of guts and accuracy just before halftime to cut Michigan’s lead to 13-10 with two perfect throws over Daxton Hill. However, Dax got the last laugh. Hill flashed into the backfield for a sack on a 3rd & 9 blitz on the first drive of the 3rd quarter. The backup QB was forced to take over from there, and Wisconsin was never within one score again.
Michigan leveraged a huge special teams advantage in this game also. The Wolverines turned a muffed punt into 3 points in the 1st half. Jake Moody was 2-for-2 on field goals, including a 47-yarder. And Wisconsin shanked one kickoff out of bounds trying to avoid giving the ball to Blake Corum. One big special teams swing occurred in the 2nd quarter when the Badgers nearly gave Michigan the ball back on a squib kick with less than a minute on the clock before halftime. Wisconsin managed to recover, and started their last drive at their own 37 yard line. That field position allowed them to unleash Mertz for their first touchdown of the game. Onward to Nebraska!
Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer give their predictions for game 5 of the Michigan football season vs Wisconsin with clips from head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Michigan survived a scare from Rutgers for the second season in a row. This time the Scarlet Knights were the team coming back from a 17-point deficit, but the Wolverines made the stops they needed to hold on 20-13.
NEXT UP: @ Wisconsin: 11th, 16.9
PREGAME SP+: U-M by 1.0, Michigan Win Probability 52%
Only 3 spots separate Michigan and Wisconsin in the SP+ rankings, despite the Wolverines’ (4-0) and Badgers’ (1-2) vastly different records. Wisconsin’s two losses have come to SP+ #5 Penn State and #22 Notre Dame.
Michigan Offense (17th) vs. Wisconsin Defense (4th)
One primary reason I ground my expectations in analytics involves avoiding recency bias. Even though Michigan’s offense had been a juggernaut for 6 out of 8 quarters this season, the last 2 quarters against Rutgers are fresh in the minds of all Michigan fans. Although the rushing attack sputtered, and the passing game could not find their rhythm last Saturday, the Wolverines still sit at #17 in SP+ offense rankings. That’s 1 spot in front of Penn State, and 22 spots ahead of Notre Dame.
On the flip side Wisconsin has an elite defensive unit, especially against the run. I don’t expect to see the Badgers surrender a large number of scoring chances. That means we’ll keep an eye on IsoPPP to measure how explosive Michigan can be when they do find successful plays.
Points per Scoring Opportunity also shines as a critical metric for this game . When the offense penetrates the Wisconsin 40-yard line, they will need to score touchdowns rather than settling for field goal attempts.
Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Wisconsin Offense (50th)
We can reasonably say that Mike MacDonald’s defensive unit saved Michigan’s victory over Rutgers. When SP+ ranked the Wolverines’ defense #10 in the preseason, I mentioned that I thought that was inflated. Through 4 weeks, Michigan has not only validated that initial ranking, but continued to climb as preseason expectations are removed from the SP+ model.
In this week’s matchup with the Badgers, the Michigan defense represents the largest unit-versus-unit advantage for the Wolverines. If the defense can create havoc and negative plays early in this game, they may be able to help subdue the crowd’s energy. The Badgers’ fan base is starving for some positivity during their rocky start to the 2021 season. Aidan Hutchinson, Dax Hill, and Josh Ross need to implant doubt & negative vibes into the Camp Randall crowd as early as possible.
PREDICTION: The range of possible outcomes for this game extends to both ends of the spectrum. It could be a nail-biter for the duration. However, the conditions feel right for either team to play poorly and get boat-raced off the field.
The early season narrative for the Badgers starts with QB Graham Mertz struggling and turning the ball over. Michigan continues to protect the ball very well to this point of the season. If the turnover margin continues on that trend, then we could be celebrating a huge road victory from Madison.
I expect both teams to play conservatively to limit the big momentum swings. I can’t yet bring myself to predict a fast start and a complete 60-minute performance from Michigan on the road. I still need to see a sharp game plan from each coordinator, and the leaders on the field consistently execute at a high level. Michigan 17 Wisconsin 20 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Wisconsin 30)
