Category: Football

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By the Numbers: Game 11 @ Maryland

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan bounced back from a sluggish start in Happy Valley.  Cade McNamara threw for 3 touchdowns and the Wolverines’ defense harassed Sean Clifford en route to a physical 21-17 victory over the Nittany Lions.

NEXT UP: @ Maryland: 56th, 6.3 

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 13.1, Michigan Win Probability 78%

The Vegas bookmakers have certainly dialed into similar calculations as those that Connelly uses for the SP+ model.  The Sunday betting line opened at Michigan -14.5 and has moved to -15.0.  Michigan has been very consistent and predictable, going 8-2 versus the spread so far.  Maryland is a total rollercoaster for the 2nd consecutive season.

Michigan Offense (25th) vs. Maryland Defense (73rd) 

Regardless of how Josh Gattis chooses to attack the Terps, Michigan should be able to execute that particular game plan.  The Wolverines haven’t seen a defense ranked this low in SP+ since Game #3 vs. NIU.  The number one question in this match up is the health of Michigan’s various offensive players, especially Blake Corum.  Hassan Haskins has proven that he is capable of carrying the workload.  However, Corum’s open field explosiveness has been missed.  Also, forcing the opposing defensive coordinator to account for Corum from sideline to sideline helps create running and passing lanes in the middle. 

Some other walking wounded may also see reduced snaps in this game, including tight end Erick All and wide receiver Roman Wilson.  With at least a handful of these injury problems facing the offense, we may not see the scoring explosion that the SP+ ranking disparity would suggest.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Maryland Offense (38th)

I was pleasantly surprised to see the Wolverines’ defensive unit ranked in the top 10 in the preseason.  I fully expected the defense to drop in the early season, and hoped they could rebound back near the top 10 by November.  Here we are in late November, and the Michigan defense has steadily climbed the SP+ rankings to #5 nationally. 

Maryland’s offense is dangerous, but not nearly as consistent as the Wolverines’ defense.  Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa leads the Terps.  He possesses both the arm talent and the running ability to cause significant problems for Michigan.  I expect that he will pull a few rabbits out of his magic hat.  However, he will also fall victim to creating huge negative plays as well.  Taulia has shown that he will throw into coverage, especially when targeting former 5-star recruit Rakim Jarrett. 

We know Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo will make Tagovailoa scramble.  If the Michigan linebackers keep him contained on the ground, and the Michigan DBs make a handful of plays on 50/50 balls, then the Wolverines should be able to hold Maryland under 20 points.

PREDICTION: I didn’t expect that Michigan’s path to this point in the season would look how it has.  However, this is pretty much what I expected Michigan to be once this game rolled around on the calendar, so I didn’t tweak my preseason prediction by much.  Part of me wanted to lower Michigan’s offensive output, because the Wolverines’ staff may be overly vanilla if they can get away with it.  However, even a conservative game plan has yielded 30+ points for this team against better defenses than Maryland’s.  I know it’s familiar, but it remains true: if Michigan plays well, this should be a comfortable victory.
Michigan 39 Maryland 17 (PRESEASON Michigan 39 Maryland 14)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (11/16/21), 9-1

  • SP+ Overall: 5th (same), 21.9
  • SP+ Offense: 25th (↓8), 35.3
  • SP+ Defense: 5th (↑3), 14.1
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 0.6

AP Poll: 8th (↑1), 1,134

Coaches’ Poll: 7th (↑1), 1,153

CFP Rank: 6th (same)

U-M Resume after Game #10
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Michigan 21 Penn State 17 – Game 10 Recap

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GAME 10 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-17, Michigan by 4 over Penn State
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 1.8 (+2.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 6 (-2)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 10 RECAP @ Penn State

Michigan did not play their best game of the season, but managed to claim their biggest victory to date, 21-17 over the Penn State Nittany Lions. In baseball, you can compliment a pitcher after a similar performance when he is able to get a win without his “best stuff”. I would say this game serves the same purpose for me. I think even higher of this 2021 Michigan Football team because they were able to win a big game, in a legit road atmosphere, even though the Wolverines had to fight some headwind.

Offensively, the Wolverines were led by all-world running back Hassan Haskins. Haskins carried the ball 31 times for 156 yards (5.0 ypc). He added 5 catches for another 45 yards also.

While H2 was doing a lot of heavy lifting on the ground, the Five Factors metrics point to a less successful day than Michigan has been accustomed to this year. Michigan only managed a 38% Success Rate on run plays. This is just the 2nd time in 2021 that the average Expected Points Added (EPA) on run plays was below zero.

One main reason for this was a stuffed run attempt on 4th & 2 in the 2nd quarter. That turnover on downs was worth -4.150 EPA. The remaining run plays averaged an EPA of +0.074.

Again, Cade McNamara showed his poise and leadership in big moments for the Michigan offense. All 3 touchdowns came via the pass. McNamara was 19-of-29 (65.5%) for 217 yards to go with the 3 TDs.

In stark contrast to the called run plays, the Wolverines averaged an EPA of +0.342 on called pass plays. Erick All collected his first career touchdown reception, and it was an even he’ll never forget. All snatched McNamara’s pass on a shallow crossing route and outran the PSU defense 47 yards to the end zone for the go-ahead score in the 4th quarter.

This game was another major test for 1st year defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald. No passing tandem that Michigan has faced to this point is more dangerous than Penn State’s WR Jahan Dotson and QB Sean Clifford.

Heading into the game, many local & national pundits were still reticent to place their confidence in U-M’s secondary. The Wolverines kept a lid on Dotson, allowing 9 catches, but only 61 yards. Sean Clifford finished 23-for-43 (53.5%) for 205 yards and 1 touchdown.

Clifford’s stat line looks very pedestrian, but appeared heroic if you were able to watch the game. Michigan tallied 7 total sacks, and 4 additional hurries. Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo were absolutely impossible to block, again.

This week was also the first time Michigan did not overwhelmingly dominate the special teams phase of the game. That is more a compliment to Penn State than an indictment of the Wolverines. Jake Moody converted 3 PATs, and Brad Robbins averaged 52.4 yards per punt. PSU’s punter/kicker Jordan Stout was also booming punts, averaging 51.0 yards per kick. However, Stout did miss a 42-yard FG attempt in the 3rd quarter.

This was another shining example of Michigan playing complementary football where all 3 phases of the game were picking each other up. The Wolverines will continue to work on converting short yardage opportunities on offense, and the defense has two monster passing attacks coming next. Michigan can still improve a good amount, but this team is capable of playing championship football. Onward!