Michigan 56 Hawai’i 10 – Game 2 Recap

You’ve got to pump it up!

GAME 2 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 56-10, Michigan by 46 over Hawai’i
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 54.6 (-8.6)
CD Projection: Michigan by 54 (-8)

FIVE FACTORS (Garbage Time Removed)

GAME 2 RECAP vs. Hawai’i

The story is the QB competition…again. Last week Jim Harbaugh was thrust into the spotlight for criticism of his “unfairness”. This week, people are singing a different tune. In the preseason, and still leading up to this game, my feeling was that Cade would still be the starter in 2022, with an increased role for JJ. Those feelings have changed.

JJ McCarthy truly seized his opportunity to prove he should be the starting QB. McCarthy went 11-12 for 229 yards and three touchdowns. The one incompletion was an inexplicable drop by Ronnie Bell. My questions were all centered around JJ running the full passing playbook, not just the read-option series. He did that today, and looked masterful. With all that said, I expect JJ to start again next week. And, I also expect Cade to get a significant number of snaps to work through the funk he’s in. There will be a role for McNamara on this team. But right now the offense looks much smoother with JJ McCarthy at the helm.

The starters were overpowering again in Week 2, but didn’t fill up the stat sheet in the same way. The Wolverines only collected 1 sack against the Rainbow Warriors, and forced 0 turnovers. However, Hawai’i’s first half drive results were an Iowa fever dream: Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt, End of the Half. Well done, Jesse Minter.

Special Teams were surprisingly pedestrian. The “hidden yards” are really hidden deep in a 46-point blowout. But Brad Robbins averaged just 41 yards on four punts. AJ Henning looked explosive on an early 35-yard return, but still seems a little shaky reading the ball in the air and catching the punt before it bounces. I have faith in Jay Harbaugh and the rest of the special teams, and we’ll see AJ Henning as a weapon on punt return more than once this season.

All in all this went according to script. It was a fun game, but never should have gone past the midnight hour. AND, don’t even get me started on skipping the tradition of touching M Club banner in pre-game to save time. That was an unforced error by the admin.

By the Numbers: Game 2 vs. Hawaii

The Wolverines cleared the first hurdle of the 2022 season vs. Colorado State

LAST WEEK RECAP

The defense was dominant, and 84 players logged snaps in Michigan’s season-opening
51-7 romp over Colorado State.

NEXT UP: vs. Hawaii: 128th, -26.0

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 54.6, Michigan Win Probability 100% (rounded)
This is the largest SP+ spread I’ve seen since I started tracking in 2018. I don’t think 100% win probability is technically possible, but it must be 99.5% or higher for Connelly’s numbers to round to 100%.

Michigan Offense (6th) vs. Hawaii Defense (130th)
There are 131 FBS teams, so the Rainbow Warriors can take solace in being slightly less of a disaster than Florida International on defense. All eyes will be on JJ McCarthy’s performance as he takes his turn to start at QB. The weakness of the Hawaii defense does not figure to give Michigan’s coaching staff a really good read on who is better prepared between McCarthy and Cade McNamara. In week 3, the UConn Huskies bring the 119th SP+ rated defense to Ann Arbor, so please take what we see with the necessary grains of salt.

Michigan Defense (10th) vs. Hawaii Offense (115th)
This figures to look a lot like the Wolverines’ dominance of Colorado State. Hawaii is also going to deploy a pass-heavy attack, but without the necessary pass protection up front. For now, Timmy Chang’s air raid offense is appropriately named, but mostly because his quarterback Brayden Schager is going to feel he’s under attack.

PREDICTION: The QB competition will again monopolize the headlines. I am hoping the Michigan crowd can stay positive and encourage both players. In the Big House last Saturday there was a shortage of patience with Cade. The throngs of people are eager to see JJ McCarthy claim the starting job. We’ll see how the sophomore handles the full range of QB duties. I am optimistic that he will show a few flashes of greatness.
Michigan 60 Hawaii 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 56 Hawaii 9)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/9/2022)

SP+ Overall: 4th ( ↑2), 26.1
SP+ Offense: 6th (same), 41.8
SP+ Defense: 10th ( ↑7), 15.8

AP Poll: 4th ( ↑4), 1,299

Coaches’ Poll: 5th ( ↑1), 1,333

CFP Rank: N/A