Category: Football

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By the Numbers: Game 14 CFP SF vs. Alabama @ Rose Bowl

LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan shut out the Iowa Hawkeyes 26-0 in Indianapolis to secure their third straight B1G Ten Championship.  The offense didn’t put up flashy statistics, but the defense only allowed Iowa one scoring opportunity that ended with a fumble recovery for the Wolverines.

NEXT UP: vs. Alabama: SP+ 7th, 23.7

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 8.4, Michigan Win Probability 69%

Michigan maintained the #1 SP+ ranking, and added the top ranking in the CFP poll, AP poll, and Coaches’ poll.  According to SP+, the Wolverines would be favored over any of the other three playoff teams: Texas (6th, 24.6); Alabama (7th, 23.7); Washington (11th, 18.6)

Michigan Offense (10th) vs. Alabama Defense (9th) 

The Michigan offense and Crimson Tide defense square up pretty equally on paper.  However, the SP+ model cannot factor in the season ending injury to All-American guard Zak Zinter.  Since the injury in the second half of the Ohio State game, senior Karsen Barhart slid inside to guard to backfill Zinter, and Trente Jones entered at right tackle.  This configuration allowed four sacks to Iowa in the B1G Championship game, and only mustered 106 rushing yards.  The Wolverines need a huge bounce back performance from the offensive line group to keep Alabama edge rushers Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell off JJ McCarthy.

The strength of the Alabama defensive unit resides in the secondary.  Both corners Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold will play in the NFL soon.  In order to attack the Crimson Tide, Michigan will have to look for match up advantages in the middle of the field.  Center Drake Nugent and guard Trevor Keegan will need decisive wins on the interior to pave the way for Blake Corum between the tackles.  Then JJ McCarthy should be able to find Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards covered by linebackers and safeties who first have to respect the interior run threat.  Running QB Alex Orji could also play a key role in creating a run game advantage by running option plays.

Michigan Defense (1st) vs. Alabama Offense (11th)

The Wolverines defense should have an advantage over the Alabama offense.  The strength of Michigan’s defensive line will create problems for Alabama’s blocking scheme.  I expect Bama to utilize double teams on the interior against DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant.  The resulting single blocking on the edge must be exploited by Jaylen Harrell, Josiah Stewart, Derrick Moore, and Braden McGregor.  In my eyes, the edge rushers are the largest key for this game.  Alabama QB Jalen Milroe can make plays with his legs, and throws the deep ball very well.  However, he will also make a handful of big mistakes in each half, very similar to Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa.  The pass rush must be disciplined by staying in their rush lanes without providing an escape alley for Milroe.  The Wolverines can create big plays by making him read the downfield coverage from a collapsing pocket as often as possible.

The Crimson Tide are not as explosive in 2023 as they have been in years past.  After a string of Heisman winners on the offensive side of the ball, this year’s Alabama squad doesn’t have the same dominant superstar playmaker.  Wide receiver Jermaine Burton is the most dangerous threat in my opinion, averaging 22.2 yards per reception and pulling in 8 touchdowns on the season.  In the backfield, Bama had three players carry the ball over 100 times.  Running back Jase McClellan should be the secondary focus for stopping the running attack, after the QB Milroe.  We saw Alabama’s late-season opponents dedicate one, or sometimes two (!), players as spies to follow Milroe on the ground.  We can expect Jesse Minter to utilize a similar plan by keeping safeties over the top of Burton, and using linebackers Michael Barret and/or Junior Colson to chase the quarterback on scramble plays.

PREDICTION: These two blue-blood programs will meet in the Granddaddy of them All, the Rose Bowl, for the first time.  With the B1G Ten, SEC, and College Football Playoff all expanding in 2024, this may be one of the last hurrahs for nostalgia and tradition to bolster the high-stakes CFP atmosphere.  I expect this game to be dictated by both defensive units, and potentially a few special teams plays.  The scoreboard could stay tight for the entire duration, but in the 4th quarter I think the experience and poise of JJ McCarthy and the Wolverines will lead to a decisive play to clinch Michigan’s first CFP victory.
Michigan 27 Alabama 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 12/17/23, 13-0

  • SP+ Overall: 1st (same), 32.1
    • SP+ Offense: 10th (↓1), 37.6
    • SP+ Defense: 1st (↑1), 7.4
    • SP+ Special Teams: 4th (↑1), 2.0
  • AP Poll: 1st (↑1), 1539
  • Coaches’ Poll: 1st (↑1), 1535
  • CFP Rank: 1st (↑1)
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Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Back to Back to Back Big Ten Champions – Michigan 26 Iowa 0

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer discuss Michigan’s 26-0 victory over Iowa to clinch a third consecutive B10 Championship. With QB JJ McCarthy, RB Blake Corum, LB Michael Barrett, DB Mike Sainristil, OL Trevor Keegan and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.

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Podcast Archive

Podcast Summary

  • Michigan Wolverines’ back-to-back Big 10 championships.0:00
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan discuss the Michigan Wolverines’ back-to-back Big 10 championships and the team’s goals for the future.
  • College football team rankings and matchups.1:47
    • Clint Derringer: Michigan’s offense dominated Iowa’s defense in Big Ten Championship game.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ victory and offensive performance.3:19
    • Clint Derringer expresses concern about Michigan’s offensive line play and depth issues in their victory over Iowa.
    • Phil Callihan notes that Michigan’s offense struggled throughout the game, with only 10 points in the first quarter and 6 points in the fourth quarter, leading to a 26-0 shutout victory over Iowa.
    • Clint Derringer agrees that the offense has been inconsistent, with injuries and health concerns affecting their performance, but expects them to improve with bowl prep and the return of JJ McCarthy.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ game strategy and performance.7:35
    • Clint Derringer analyzes Michigan’s game plan against Iowa, highlighting their focus on AJ’s running ability and the defense’s shutout victory.
    • Michigan’s offense appeared limited in their game plan against Iowa, with JJ McCarthy struggling with an injured ankle.
    • Phil Callihan highlights the limited targets for JJ McCarthy, a potential Heisman Trophy candidate, and the success of Cornelius Johnson.
    • Callihan praises the play of Samaj McKenzie on a 87-yard punt return, and the defender who made an amazing tackle after initially missing one.
  • Michigan football’s win over Iowa, including player analysis and injury concerns.13:48
    • Clint Derringer highlights the impact of Michigan freshman receiver, Smosh Morgan, on the game, particularly in the return game and on the edge in the run game.
    • Phil Callihan agrees, noting that Morgan’s play had a huge impact on the game, including on field position, and that Michigan tried to punt away from him for the rest of the game.
    • Clint Derringer highlights Michigan’s versatility in beating Iowa, mentioning their punter as their best player and the team’s ability to adapt and win in different ways.
    • Phil Callihan and Michael Barrett discuss the defense’s performance, noting that they kept the pressure up on Iowa and the offense only needed to do enough to win the game.
    • Clint Derringer questions Jonathan’s health and its impact on Iowa’s defense, particularly against Alabama’s skill positions.
    • Mikey Sanders earns MVP of the Big 10 Championship game, making key plays on defense and special teams.
  • Player’s award nomination and position switch.22:39
    • Phil Callihan praises player’s award win despite unexpected position switch.
  • Michigan football’s success and appreciation for the team’s achievements.23:52
    • Mike Sainristil: team’s success is due to brotherhood, hard work, and being in the right place at the right time.
    • Jim Harbaugh: Mikey Sainristil is an incredible player who always does the right thing, leading by example and making big plays.
    • Phil Callihan reflects on Michigan Wolverines’ success, urges fans to appreciate team’s achievements.
  • Michigan Wolverines football team’s success and camaraderie.28:16
    • Clint Derringer reflects on Michigan’s recent success, sharing his experiences as a fan during the 1995-1997 era when the team had a three-game winning streak.
    • Phil Callihan agrees, noting that it’s great for his kids to be at an age where they can experience Michigan football during this successful era, and he’s happy for Clint’s kids to be able to live through this time as well.
    • Clint Derringer and Phil Callihan appreciate the Michigan Football team’s camaraderie and positivity, despite the ups and downs of the season.
    • Jim Harbaugh, Blake Corum, and JJ McCarthy share a special bond and communicate well, according to the postgame interview.
    • Jim Harbaugh and the team emphasize the importance of being a “team, the team, the team” (0:33:34-0:35:10)
    • The team’s unity and commitment to each other is evident in their play and postgame celebrations (0:35:10-0:35:34)
  • Michigan football’s success despite challenges.36:06
    • Team’s commitment to one track mindset impresses Derringer, despite challenges.
    • Michigan navigates NHL opportunities and culture, sharing wealth with teammates and community.
  • Michigan Wolverines football team’s resilience and success.40:37
    • Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer praise Michigan football’s resilience in overcoming obstacles and maintaining their culture despite setbacks.
    • Trevor Keegan, J.J. McCarthy, and the team embrace the target on their back and use it as fuel to improve, mentioning last season’s ending and the lessons learned from it.
    • Team’s focus on winning and preparation for future games, despite past successes.
    • Blake Corum reflects on his journey of self-discovery and personal growth, highlighting the importance of resilience and perseverance in the face of adversity.
    • Jim Harbaugh praises the current Michigan Football team for their determination and hard work, emphasizing their ability to turn challenges into opportunities for growth and success.
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Michigan 26 Iowa 0 – Game 13 B1G Ten Championship Recap

GAME 13 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 26-0, Michigan by 26 over Iowa
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 22.7 (+3.3)
CD Projection: Michigan by 24 (+2)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 13 B1G TEN CHAMPIONSHIP RECAP vs. Iowa

Michigan needed just 213 total yards on offensive to put the Iowa Hawkeyes away in he B1G Ten Championship game. JJ McCarthy completed 22 of his 30 passes for 147 yards, but no touchdowns. Cornelius Johnson takes the crown as king of the passing attack. CJ hauled in a career high 9 receptions, showing tremendous athleticism and soft hands throughout the game. Blake Corum handled the scoring load, finding pay dirt twice. Corum’s two touchdowns tie him for the career rushing touchdown record (55) with legend Anthony Thomas.

The Michigan defense handled their business against an overwhelmed Iowa offense. Mike Sainristil received the championship game MVP after he forced two fumbles in key moments of the game. The linebacker room also showed out. Michigan’s three leading tacklers all come from the LB room. Ernest Hausmann and Junior Colson collected 8 stops each, and senior Michael Barrett added 7 more tackles.

Nine minutes into the game, James Turner sealed the final result by kicking the first Michigan field goal from 35 yards out. Turner would finish with 14 total points by going 4-for-4 on field goals, and 2-for-2 on PATs. Tommy Doman also managed to out-perform Iowa’s Tory Taylor with a net punting edge 39.8 to 35.1. The field position advantage set the Wolverines up with an estimated 1.42 point advantage each time the field flipped.

No doubt, the Wolverines have spoiled Michigan fans with three consecutive titles to go with a three game win streak over the Buckeyes. However, team 144 is a little different than the past two. They immediately shift focus to the next objective. Blake Corum likes to quote Kobe Bryant by saying, “…job’s not finished.” OK, Blake. Bet!

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Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — The ULTIMATE TEAM – Game 12 – Michigan 30 Ohio State 24

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Phil @pcallihan and Clint @Clint_Derringer discuss Michigan’s 30-24 victory over Ohio State. With QB JJ McCarthy, RB Blake Corum, LB Michael Barrett, DL Kris Jenkins, and acting Head Coach Sherrone Moore.

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Podcast Archive

Podcast Summary

  • Michigan Wolverines’ victory and teamwork.0:00
    • Coach Sherrone Moore and quarterback J.J. McCarthy discuss the team’s mentality and commitment to each other, emphasizing the importance of teamwork and belief in themselves.
  • Michigan Wolverines vs Ohio State Buckeyes game with analysis and insights.2:18
    • Clint Derringer praises Ohio State’s resilience and ability to adapt, highlighting their impressive game plan and execution despite Michigan’s early lead.
    • Phil Callihan notes that Ohio State outgained Michigan in total yards (378-338) and suggests that the Buckeyes may have made adjustments to exploit Michigan’s defense.
    • Phil Callihan highlights the significance of Michigan’s recent victories over Ohio State, emphasizing the rivalry’s importance and Ohio State’s current struggles.
    • Callihan praises Michigan’s resilience and adaptability during the game, particularly in the face of Ohio State’s third-quarter drive.
    • Phil Callihan highlights the emotional highs and lows of the Michigan vs. Ohio State game, including the Zack Charin injury and the crowd’s supportive response.
    • The game was a “horrific” and “amazing” display of college football, with the Michigan Stadium crowd playing a crucial role in the team’s victory.
  • Michigan football’s win over Ohio State, with analysis of rushing and passing games, turnovers, and team culture.12:14
    • Michigan beats Ohio State with strong running game and key interceptions.
    • Michigan’s culture of positivity and selflessness shines through in comeback win.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ football game, analyzing team’s performance.16:54
    • Phil Callihan wonders why Ohio State abandoned their successful running game in favor of passing more, despite Michigan’s success on the ground.
    • Phil Callihan analyzes Michigan’s game strategy, highlighting their reliance on running the ball despite injuries.
    • Phil Callihan observes that Michigan’s performance in the game was characterized by balance and confidence, with the team executing their plan and performing in all facets of the game.
    • Callihan notes that Michigan’s special teams were also effective, with the team going 3-for-3 on field goals and not relying on their kicker too much this season.
  • Michigan football’s victory despite coaching staff absences.23:47
    • Michigan’s passing game was more efficient despite Marvin Harrison Jr.’s individual success.
    • Michigan football team earns victory despite head coach Jim Harbaugh’s absence.
  • Michigan Wolverines’ football team’s resilience and determination.28:33
    • Sharon Moore, interim head coach, led the team to victory despite Zack Charron’s injury, demonstrating his coaching ability and resilience.
    • Moore received praise from Jim Harbaugh for his ability to execute the game plan and close out the game, highlighting his leadership and adaptability.
    • Sherrone Moore emphasizes the team’s goal to win the national championship, despite their recent success in the Big House.
    • Roman Wilson expresses excitement for the team’s potential to go all the way, citing their bond and determination.
    • Phil Callihan highlights the team’s resilience in the face of media attention and external criticism, suggesting they are stronger than ever.
  • Michigan football’s resume and national title chances.35:03
    • Michigan’s resume stands out despite lack of dominance in wins over Ohio State and Penn State.
    • Michigan’s coach Clint Derringer praises team’s resilience, focus on next game despite Ohio State win.
  • Ohio State-Michigan game with analysis of J.J. McCarthy’s play.38:46
    • Phil Callihan reflects on the seeds of Ohio State’s three-year run being sown by Ryan Day’s comment about hanging 100 on Michigan, and how JJ McCarthy’s touchdown was a result of the team’s confidence in him.
    • Sherrone Moore and Roman Wilson praise JJ McCarthy’s decision-making and ability to find open receivers in critical situations.
    • Sherrone Moore and Phil Callihan discuss Ohio State’s dominant performance against Michigan, with Moore highlighting the team’s confidence and Callihan praising their rushing game.
    • Callihan notes that Michigan has been better in the last three years on the day that matters, suggesting a pattern in their rivalry.
  • Michigan Wolverines football and their victory over Ohio State.43:49
    • Ohio State players and coaches reflect on their loss to Michigan, focusing on preparation and heart.
    • Phil Callihan reflects on Michigan Football’s recent success and the excitement of being a fan during this time.
    • Fans urged to enjoy the season and hold on to memories, as the team’s performance is special and should be cherished.