Tune into the latest podcast as @pcallihan and @Clint_Derringer preview Michigan’s upcoming game against Arkansas State, emphasizing the urgency for the Wolverines to bounce back after their loss to Texas. Head coach Sherrone Moore stresses the need for improvement without panicking, while Clint highlights the offensive line concerns and the quarterback rotation between Davis Warren, Alex Orji, and the potential return of Jack Tuttle. Michigan’s defense is expected to dominate but the offense must establish the run game and regain momentum before a looming clash with USC. This episode dives into the team’s strategy, leadership, and the path forward.
Michigan was outclassed by Texas in the Big House, and scored late to post a 31-12 score that looks better than the game felt. Davis Warren threw two interceptions, and the Wolverines’ defense showed they are human.
NEXT UP: vs. Ark. St.: SP+ 99th, -9.4
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 28.9, Michigan Win Probability 96%
While the Wolverines were thoroughly outplayed last weekend by the Texas Longhorns, the SP+ model did not shift much. Michigan drops one spot to 13th overall. The even wilder quirk of the model is that Texas’ unit rankings each improved, but overall the Longhorns also dropped one spot to #4. Arkansas State is in alignment with average G5 teams.
Michigan Offense (67th) vs. Ark. St. Defense (124th)
This week is potentially a now-or-never moment for Michign’s offense. The Red Wolves bring a bottom feeder defensive unit to Ann Arbor. We can use any number of traditional stats or advanced stats to measure the offense this week, but I just want to see Michigan move the line of scrimmage at the snap. Arkansas State is giving up over 140 yards rushing per game so far versus Central Arkansas and Tulsa. This is a big week for first year Offensive Line Coach Grant Newsome. Michigan must re-establish their identity as a smash offense. Any of the quarterbacks on the roster require an efficient run game to open up explosive plays in the air, or even using Oriji’s legs for chunk yardage gains. Priority #1 for Michigan on Saturday has to be clean execution up front on offense.
Michigan Defense (3rd) vs. Ark. St. Offense (69th)
Maybe it’s unfair to keep comparing the 2024 Michigan Football team to the 2023 team that won the national title. But, if the Wolverines are going to maintain the program standard under first-year head coach Sherrone Moore, this defense will have to be just as good as last year’s unit. The major challenge to accomplishing that objective is the 2024 depth being much thinner this season. The Wolverines can no longer rely on a dominant performance from the 1st and 2nd units interchangeably. So, to have success remotely comparable to last year’s defense, Wink Martindale will have to find a way to get off the field when they have the chance. Hopefully, the offense will continue to evolve and improve enough to help rest the 1st team defense so they are fresh for the key moments late in games.
Arkansas State is almost exactly average nationally as an offensive unit. They are averaging 426 total yards per game so far against a couple low-level opponents. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor will be looking to push the ball down the field and challenge Michigan’s DBs who aren’t named Will Johnson. Raynor is also the leading rusher for the Red Wolves through two weeks. The Wolverines will definitely be rotating many players into this game as they try to shore up their depth. If they can consistently get to Raynor and hit him, they will have some chances to create a few turnovers in this game.
PREDICTION: This should be the last week where we enter the game with major question marks about how Michigan will manage personnel. If Alex Orji is getting more snaps, especially consecutively, then they see his ability as critical to supporting the run game. When Davis Warren and/or Jack Tuttle is at quarterback, the Wolverines are stating they think the run game will continue to improve without adding the QB run plays. Either way, the key players are on the offensive line. I am especially looking to see how Newsome is rotating players at right tackle.
The Wolverines have a major talent advantage in this game, and expectations should match that edge. Behind the scenes, we really need to evaluate how this group of leaders (both players & coaches) respond to being punched in the mouth. If Michigan comes out hungry, looking to prove themselves all over again, then we can all move forward with more confidence into B1G Ten play. I expect to see better balance and complementary football, but the offense will still be showing some growing pains. Michigan 27 Ark. St. 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 33 Ark. St. 6)
In the latest U M Go Blue podcast, Phil Callihan @pcallihan and Clint Derringer @Clint_Derringer break down Michigan’s 31-12 loss to Texas, focusing on the offensive struggles and defensive lapses that led to the defeat. From quarterback Davis Warren’s timing issues to miscommunication on the offensive line, the podcast takes a deep dive into what went wrong and how the Wolverines can rebound. Despite the setback, the coaches and players stress the importance of resilience, with a focus on sharpening offensive execution and defensive strategies as they prepare for their next challenge against Arkansas State.
Final Score: 12-31, Texas by 19 SP+ Projection: Texas by 6.5 (-12.5) CD Projection: Texas by 6 (-13)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 2 RECAP vs. Texas
The false start by LT Myles Hinton on the first offensive snap at home was a harbinger of things to come. The Wolverines did not look sharp at any position. When there were flashes of competence, they quickly dulled into a burnt orange haze. QB Davis Warren finished 22-33 for 204 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, most of that came in the fourth quarter when all my metrics were removed as Garbage Time. Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings combined for just 14 carries and 66 yards, an average of 4.7 yards per carry.
My pregame prediction was for Michigan to score 14 points, and a victory would require the Wolverines D to hold Texas under 20. The Longhorns looked as if they could execute any set of plays they wanted, under very little pressure. I was truly shocked that Texas could amass 374 total yards in three quarters (!!) against Wink Martindale’s unit. Some of the issues were short fields and battling uphill. But, plain and simple, the Texas offense whipped up on the Michigan defense today.
Just as the offense started out with a bad omen, special teams also tripped out of the gate. Tommy Doman punted just 28 yards after the first series went 3-and-out, allowing Texas to get out to an initial 7-0 lead. There were no other critical errors, but the Wolverines were never in a position to capitalize on a potential advantage here.
In the grand scheme of things nationally, today was much more about Texas being good as opposed to Michigan being bad. But, that doesn’t make it any easier to swallow. The Wolverines need to continue to toughen up in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Every season-long goal is still available. The challenge is now one of grit and leadership for both players and coaches. Next week, Arkansas State comes in, and hopefully Michigan can build some confidence in a “Get Right Game”. Smash!
