Category: Football

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By the Numbers: Game 5 vs. Minnesota

LAST WEEK RECAP

The Wolverines scored with under a minute remaining to take the lead, and held on to secure the 27-24 victory over the USC Trojans in an instant classic. The defense held their own against a top-tier offense, and Kalel Mullings was an absolute beast on the ground, including a Jim Brown style rumble for 63 yards on the game winning drive. 

NEXT UP: vs. Minnesota: SP+ 47th, 6.3

PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.0, Michigan Win Probability 77%

The Vegas lines are finally shifting closer to the SP+ model output.  Right now Michigan is a 10.5 point betting favorite, and SP+ likes the Wolverines by 12.  I am surprised Minnesota’s defense stayed ranked in the top 20 after allowing Iowa to score 31 points last week.

Michigan Offense (61st) vs. Minnesota Defense (17th) 

All the analysis and prognostication is centered on this match up with Alex Orji making his second start at QB.  After going 7-for-12 for 32 yards passing last game, a huge portion of the Michigan fan base wants to see more passing game competence.  Unfortunately for them, rainy conditions in the Big House will likely limit the play calling options available to offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. The Wolverines are completely satisfied duplicating what worked for them last week versus USC, because it also worked just fine for Iowa in a 31-14 victory in Minneapolis.  For me, the most important thing is getting your five best offensive weapons onto the field together as frequently as possible.  Kalel Mullings, Coleston Loveland, Donovan Edwards, Max Bredeson, and Semaj Morgan should see a lion’s share of the snaps in order to threaten the entire field.

Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Minnesota Offense (89th)

Put very simply, this is a David vs. Goliath mismatch.  Michigan has to handle their business down-to-down to avoid giving the Gophers any sense of confidence.  Under PJ Fleck, Minnesota has been a run-first offense with a smash mentality similar to Sherrone Moore’s Wolverines.  However, this year they are more reliant on a super dangerous wide receiver #9 Daniel Jackson, and transfer QB from New Hampshire #16 Max Brosmer.  One potential snag for Michigan could be depth at the defensive back position.  Will Johnson was not 100% healthy to finish last week’s game, so #20 Jyaire Hill and #12 Aamir Hall may be called on to answer the challenge against Jackson.  I expect Michigan’s defensive line to wreak havoc on the Gophers all day, but the defensive backs will have to avoid coverage busts and missed tackles that have been too commonplace to start this season.

PREDICTION: Michigan will likely need to build their own energy down on the sidelines.  It’s a grey, rainy day in Ann Arbor that might suppress the enthusiasm of the Big House crowd after last week’s classic comeback.  I expect the defense to set up the offense with a couple short fields, and if Orji and the offense cash those possessions in early, this could become a blow out.  Right now, I need to see a little cleaner execution from the offensive line, and more creativity with personnel from Kirk Campbell before I start predicting high score totals for the Wolverines.

Michigan 21 Minnesota 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Minnesota 9)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/14/24, 3-1

CFP Rank: N/A

SP+ Overall: 15th (↓3), 15.8
SP+ Offense: 61st (↓4), 28.5
SP+ Defense: 5th (↓1), 13.1
SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑9), 0.4

AP Poll: 12th (↑6), 805

Coaches’ Poll: 12th (↑5), 692

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Little Brown Jug — Looking Back – 2015

Looking Back is a Special Feature by Jeff Cummins

The fifth and final installment of the series looking back at the Little Brown Jug rivalry takes us back to 2015. Three years of Rich Rodriguez followed by four years of Brady Hoke left fans and alumni desperate for a positive change. Jim Harbaugh was brought home with a clear mandate: Restore Michigan to its former glory.

Halfway through the season, Michigan had shut out three consecutive opponents, but a punting mishap against Michigan State revived a lot of dreadful memories. Were the Wolverines destined to toil in mediocrity?

The 2015 Little Brown Jug game stared innocently enough. Joey Kerridge scored on a 1-yard fullback dive to give Michigan a 7-3 lead. Then Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock threw a dart to Jehu Chesson for a touchdown to extend Michigan’s lead to 14-3. For a moment, it was starting to feel like an early night for Michigan fans, but Minnesota coach Jerry Kill had instilled a feisty quality in his team, and the next three hours would have Michigan fans searching for the antacid tablets.

The teams traded punches and the lead for the rest of the game. With just a little under five minutes left, Michigan backup quarterback Wilton Speight made arguably the biggest play of his career, connecting with tight end Jake Butt in the end zone to give Michigan the lead. He then bought enough time on the conversion to find Amara Darboh for two points to ensure that a field goal couldn’t beat Michigan. Now the burden shifted back to the Michigan defense.

The defense came very close to ending the game with no drama. Minnesota faced a 3rd down and 17 yards to go, with Michigan in the driver’s seat. Minnesota quarterback Mitch Lender threw a screen pass and Michigan missed a couple of tackles, allowing Rodney Smith to gain 17 yards and the first down. Leidner completed the drive by connecting with Drew Wolitarsky, who caught the ball and landed in the end zone. For a few moments, Michigan fans were contemplating defeat.

But replay confirmed that Wolitarsky’s knee hit the ground before he reached the goal line. Minnesota had the ball inside the Michigan 1-yard line. The situation was far from ideal, but at least now Michigan had a chance. There were 19 seconds left on the clock, but when the clock started, Minnesota wasted a lot of time, only snapping the ball with about seven seconds remaining. On the next play, Leidner scrambled under pressure, and lofted a harmless pass that fell incomplete with two seconds on the clock. There was time for only one more play.

Fortunately, Michigan adhered to the old football adage, “low man wins.” Minnesota lined up in a full house backfield, but Leidner tried to score on a quarterback sneak. He crashed into a veritable wall of humanity, but he never moved the ball across the goal line. Officials reviewed the film, but the call on the field was not changed. Michigan used a goal line stand to stop Minnesota on the final play and win, 29-26.

Michigan starting quarterback Jake Rudock went on to have a very good season, dominating Florida in the Orlando Citrus Bowl in a 41-7 Michigan win. Many members of the Michigan team went on to play in the NFL, but few ever played in a game more exciting than the 2015 Little Brown Jug game.

Many thanks to ESPN, YouTube, and YouTube poster CFB Fans for the broadcast of this game. As always, we own nothing and this blog post is provided strictly for the enjoyment of readers.

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Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Game 5 Preview — Minnesota

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Tune into the latest podcast as @pcallihan and @Clint_Derringer dive into Michigan’s battle with Minnesota for the Little Brown Jug stressing the need for a dominant win to build momentum. They dive into Michigan’s strong running game, Alex Orji’s role as starting quarterback, and the team’s need to show offensive creativity. The duo also highlights Minnesota’s defensive strengths and offensive weaknesses, predicting a Michigan victory. With key players like Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards set to play pivotal roles, this episode offers a comprehensive look at Michigan’s strategies and potential for success. Listen in for expert analysis and game insights!

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Little Brown Jug — Looking Back – 2003

Looking Back is a Special Feature by Jeff Cummins

Ahh, the 2003 season. Things had gone off the rails a bit during the previous two seasons, but the Wolverines got back to basics in 2003. John Navarre was now firmly entrenched as Michigan’s starting quarterback, and a rededicated Chris Perry emerged as the Wolverines’ most dangerous running back. The Wolverines had reloaded, and they were ready to make some noise.

The fourth installment of the series looking back at the Little Brown Jug rivalry takes us to the latter part of the 2003 season. Michigan was obviously enjoying a good season, and the Wolverines were virtually unbeatable at home. Road games were a different story.

Michigan had dominated Minnesota since 1987, a fact that wasn’t lost on the Minnesota players. Michigan struggled for most of the game, with Steve Breaston’s touchdown pass to quarterback John Navarre serving as the only bright spot. After three quarters, Minnesota led, 28-7, and even the most optimistic Michigan fan had reason for concern.

The Wolverines mustered all their concentration and determination as the fourth quarter began. Slowly, Michigan started to make some plays. Less than a minute into the fourth quarter, Navarre connected with Perry on a perfectly designed screen pass that went 10 yards for a touchdown. The guys in the winged helmets were showing signs of life, while Minnesota coach Glen Mason was showing signs of agita.

On the very next play, Michigan cornerback Leon Hall blitzed off the edge, forcing an ill-advised pass from Minnesota quarterback Asad Abdul-Khaliq. The pass was intercepted by Michigan safety Jacob Stewart, who had an easy path to a touchdown. Michigan was within one touchdown, and momentum was wearing a Wolverines jersey.

The Abdul-Khaliq threw a counter punch, running 52 yards for a score to extend Minnesota’s lead to 14 points. This was a different group of Golden Gophers, for sure.

Undaunted, Navarre led the Wolverine offense back, finding Braylon Edwards, who stretched into the end zone for the score. Again, Michigan had cut the deficit to one touchdown. With just under five minutes remaining, Navarre handed the ball to Perry, who made one cut, and found the end zone for the tying touchdown.

Now, Michigan was in absolute control. The defense stuffed Minnesota. Navarre then led Michigan on a methodical drive that resulted in a 33-yard field goal from Garrett Rivas to give the Wolverines their first lead of the game with 47 seconds remaining. With nine seconds left, Markus Curry intercepted a long pass to put the final exclamation point on Michigan’s win. The Wolverines defeated the Golden Gophers, 38-35, after trailing almost the entire game.

Many thanks to ESPN, YouTube, and YouTube poster RXwolverine2 for the video of this game. As always, we own nothing, and this blog post is provided strictly for the enjoyment of readers.

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Little Brown Jug — Looking Back – 1969

Looking Back is a Special Feature by Jeff Cummins

The third installment in the series looking back at the rivalry for the Little Brown Jug takes us to 1969. Change was everywhere in the late 1960s, particularly in college towns such as Ann Arbor. That change did not extend to football. Michigan still expected to win the Little Brown Jug, no matter what.

Minnesota kicked three field goals in the first half to take a 9-7 lead at halftime, and things weren’t going as new Michigan coach Bo Schembechler had planned.

Enter Michigan running back Billy Taylor. Taylor scored on runs of three yards and one yard in the third quarter, capping drives of 14 plays and nine plays, respectively, as Michigan grabbed the lead. Don Moorhead and Lance Scheffler added rushing touchdowns in the fourth quarter to give Michigan a 35-9 win. Taylor led Michigan in rushing yardage with 151 yards on 31 carries, while Moorhead added 77 yards and Garvie Craw added 50 yards. Schembechler’s insistence on running the ball was the factor that turned the game in Michigan’s favor in the second half. The Wolverines’ offensive line wore down Minnesota, allowing the Wolverines to take charge.

Michigan entered the game with a record of three wins and two losses. The second half of the game against Minnesota was the turning point in Michigan’s season. It could also be argued that it was a turning point for the future of the Michigan football program, as the Wolverines went on to enjoy two decades of success with Schembechler at the helm. No wonder Bo loved to run the ball!

Many thanks to YouTube and YouTube poster College Football Historian for the highlight film of this game. As always, we own nothing and this blog post is provided strictly for the enjoyment of readers.