UMGOBLUE.COM Michigan Wolverine Football & Basketball
By Fans…For Fans Since 1999
Phil Callihan and guest Greg Dooley of MVictors.COM discuss covering Michigan Football as new media and how its impacted their fandom.
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Final Score: 38-7, Michigan by 31 over Maryland
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 16.3 (+14.7)
CD Projection: Michigan by 17 (+14)
The narrative that the media preferred was Michigan offensive coordinator Josh Gattis vs. Maryland head coach Mike Locksley. After some chippiness back in the summer, both coaches downplayed that media angle going into the Week 10 game in College Park. Instead, Michigan won this game by controlling every phase of the game, although by a smaller margin than many expected. The Wolverines had a smallish edge in each of the Five Factors in the box score above.
Offensively, Michigan chose a very balanced approach with 55 % of play calls being run plays. The ground game accounted for 46% of the total yardage. Zach Charbonnet continues to churn out yards and find the end zone. This week he became the all-time record holder for rushing touchdowns in a freshman season. In the first half, explosive plays were the difference between the Wolverines and Terps. On a key 51 yard bomb to Nico Collins, quarterback Shea Patterson looked to be in much better rhythm and hit Collins in stride over the top of the defense.
On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan’s opponents continue to come up with successful game plans versus Don Brown. However, that success has a shelf life of only the first quarter. Once Brown’s adjustments are made, Michigan dominates statistically, and the opposing offense is left seeing stars. Only 0.3% separated Maryland’s success rate and Michigan’s. But after missing a 37-yard field goal attempt in the 2nd quarter, the Terrapins punted on their next seven possessions. Maryland only amassed 78 total yards on those seven drives.
Michigan now heads into their second bye week. The additional time off should serve the Wolverines well by providing additional opportunity to nurse bumps, bruises, and minor injuries. Michigan did not perform well coming out of the first bye week to play a road game at Wisconsin. This time, the second of three home rivalry games awaits on the other side of the bye. I am sure Jim Harbaugh’s staff will be digging deep into their detail prep while watching the Michigan State Spartans try to right the ship against Illinois.
Phil Callihan and Clint Derringer resounding 45-14 victory over Notre Dame, preview the Maryland game, and discuss rumors of Jim Harbaugh’s alleged departure.
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LAST WEEK RECAP
The running game clicked on offense, and the defense swarmed as Michigan dominated Notre Dame 45-14. The win will be remembered as Jim Harbaugh’s second over a top 10 team, but SP+ had Notre Dame ranked 19th going in.
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 16.3, Michigan Win Probability 83%
Michigan’s defensive unit ranking continues to climb, currently up to #2 in SP+ rankings. The offense, after an early season drop to #72, has clawed back to 41st against some solid defensive teams. The special teams unit continues to drop, now down another fourteen spots to #80.
Michigan Offense (41st) vs. Maryland Defense (64th)
My calls for patience regarding this offense are starting to look better. If the Wolverines can put together another dominating offensive performance on the road versus an average defense, then I will officially feel vindicated. In the preseason preview I mentioned that SP+ ranked Maryland defense exactly in the middle (65th). As the calendar turns to November the Terps defense is 64th, and gave up 42 points per game in their last three contests (@ Purdue, vs. Indiana, @ Minnesota). I wonder if offensive coordinator Josh Gattis and Jim Harbaugh remember the Terrapins’ head coach making snide comments (“Josh who?”) at Big Ten Media Day regarding his former assistant at Alabama.
Michigan Defense (2nd) vs. Maryland Offense (58th)
In 2018, most of us (Michigan fans) were taken by surprise when Ohio State sprung an offensive assault on Don Brown’s defense. The defense’s performance in late season games may have been sending us warning signs. After a tremendous week 8 performance last year in East Lansing, Michigan’s YTD success rate against was 33%. At that point, the defense allowed an average of 3.9 yards per play (YPP), and IsoPPP (Points gained per successful play) was 0.84. I compared those averages to what we saw in those metrics from games #9-12 in 2018 below. Going into Game #9 of the 2019 season, on the road versus an average opponent, the Michigan defense MUST maintain their high level of play and attention to detail. The last thing the Wolverines need is another downward trend through November.
PREDICTION: Michigan’s dominance over Notre Dame made most of us feel better, and I am relieved for that. I started to wonder where my own optimism was coming from after the heartbreak in Happy Valley. Now, going into this road tilt in College Park, I think the pendulum may have swung the other way. The fan base is back to expecting a total blowout, and I am more conservative. Until I see at least one complete performance away from the Big House, it will be tough for me to predict one. I expect this game to feel similar to the Illinois game, with a handful of problems smearing our memory of a multi-score victory.
Michigan 30 Maryland 13 (PRESEASON Michigan 35 Maryland 7)
Michigan Head Coach Jim Harbaugh Monday Press Conference, Harbaugh talks about Michigan 45-14 victory over Notre Dame, Albert Einstein, and preparations for the next game versus Maryland.
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