Category: Football

GAME 9 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 21-16, Michigan by 5 over Purdue
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 21.7 (-16.7)
CD Projection: Michigan by 19 (-14)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 9 RECAP vs. Purdue

It’s important to understand whether you are a glass-half-full person, or a glass-half-empty person. The offense, as a unit, is not playing well for a multitude of reasons. But, Jordan Marshall is carrying the program on his back in heroic fashion. And, most importantly, the Wolverines keep winning football games. Marshall carried the ball 25 times for 185 yards and scored all 3 Michigan touchdowns.

The sophomore running back stepped in to save the day after Chip Lindsey could no longer keep the game in Bryce Underwood’s hands. The freshman quarterback finished 13-of-22 for 145 yards passing, but had two very costly turnovers in the red zone that cost the team anywhere from 6 to 14 points. With 75% of the regular season completed, Underwood is at the level I would have expected back in August, but the progress feels pretty flat over the past few weeks. Outside of the plethora of injured Wolverines, nobody needs the bye week more than Bryce.

Defensively, I was prepared for frustration as Saturday progressed. First, I learned Purdue’s OC previously worked under Lincoln Riley at USC. I remember the coaching mismatch I saw a month ago, so I was ready for Purdue to hit a few plays. Second, we learned Michigan would be missing Jimmy Rolder, Cole Sullivan, Jayshawn Barham, and Rod Moore from the starting lineup. That put a lot of inexperienced guys onto the field. Add in Purdue’s preference for high tempo, and it was clear Michigan was going to give up some points tonight. When it was all said and done, I think the battered Wolverines did an admirable job. However, this film combined with the USC film will no doubt be under a microscope in Columbus.

The special teams units are still wildly inconsistent. Semaj Morgan caught one punt in the air, but turned in a -2 yard return. The previous return opportunity was another example of playing too deep and letting the ball bounce and roll for a 57 yard net for Purdue. Michigan’s punter Hudson Hollenbeck continues his up-down, feast-or-famine pattern. I am confident he is capable, but he needs to reset the floor on his bad kicks.

Jim Harbaugh said famously, “When they put ‘pretty’ on the scoreboard, we’ll worry about it.” It was after a game just like this. Winning a B1G Ten game in November is no small feat. The Wolverines have to maximize their rest and self-study during the upcoming bye week. This month will determine how we remember the 2025 team.