Category: Football

GAME 7 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 6-13 OT, Indiana by 7 over Michigan
SP+ Projection: Indiana by 8.1 (+1.1)
CD Projection: Indiana by 11 (+4)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 7 RECAP vs. Indiana

There is everything to say, and nothing to say at the same time about the offense. A 29% success rate running the ball is bad, but also understated. Seven games into the season, the offense has no identity on offense from down-to-down. If there is anything consistent from the offense, it’s Jason Beck’s overuse of the extra OL, or Rhino package. During Michigan’s best series in the third quarter, Tommy Carr found JJ Buchanan deep in the middle and grabbed 34 yards on two snaps. The Wolverines could never get behind the linebackers again the rest of the game and overtime. The lack of pass threat from the Rhino, and the block-heavy FB/TE players is making things far too easy for the opposing defensive coordinators.

This was a heroic effort by the Michigan defense, which was the necessary minimum to steal a win this afternoon. Indiana only ran 53 offensive plays, and may have been shut out if the Wolverines had not gifted two short-field opportunities for field goals. Chris Bracy led the way for a second consecutive week, notching 13 tackles. The secondary held two elite Indiana WRs to 57 total receiving yards, no scores, and also forced Josh Hoover’s first interception of the season. The core challenge right now for the defense is not turning on the offensive personnel and staff at Schembechler Hall.

The offense will be under the media microscope, but two missed field goals were also killer in a game that ended regulation as a tie. One miss from 50+ yards is certainly understandable, and was canceled out in a way by IU’s missed FG attempt at the end of the first half. But not scoring points after driving down to the 1-yard line to open the third quarter proved to be a fatal blow. 3rd & 1 was a bad play call, poor execution, and then made fatal by the missed kick.

This team is out of sync, the fan base is fracturing, and there is a threat of discontent to spread through the whole program. I mentioned during an in-game tweet that I was worried the past few weeks about players slumping into lack of effort and enthusiasm. I was pretty proud that we didn’t see any of that on the field Saturday against the Hoosiers, but another tough loss filled with question marks and excuses carries the same concern. Maybe Michigan can put together a get right game in Piscataway against Rutgers on Halloween Night. Go Blue!