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By the Numbers: Game 14 vs. Georgia – Orange Bowl (CFP SF)

LAST GAME RECAP

The Wolverines jumped out in front of Iowa and never looked back as they eventually steamrolled the Hawkeyes 42-3 to win the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis.

NEXT UP: vs. Georgia: 1st, 31.7 

PREGAME SP+: Georgia by 5.8, Michigan Win Probability 37%

With this being the Orange Bowl, taking place in Miami at a true neutral site, the projection is the difference between the two teams’ SP+ ratings.  The Vegas line has stayed pretty steady at Georgia (-7), so the SP+ model picks the Dawgs to win, but Michigan to cover.

Michigan Offense (16th) vs. Georgia Defense (1st) 

Josh Gattis is the freshly awarded Broyles Award winner, given to the top assistant coach in the nation.  Gattis’ last three game plans have been works of football art.  Michigan’s offensive Success Rate (garbage time removed) in the last three games: 60% @ Maryland; 72% vs. Ohio State; 48% vs. Iowa.  Perhaps more importantly, since identifying their struggles to finish drives in the mid-season, the Wolverines are now averaging 5.0 points per scoring attempt, and have been 6.0+ in their last 4 games.  

This Georgia defense is a whole other beast, though.  Before giving up 41 points to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs were giving up less than a touchdown per game on the season (6.9 pts/game).  This match up pits the Michigan run-first mentality against an absolute juggernaut defense.  The Georgia players are almost all former blue chip prospects, with huge size and blazing speed.

In order to have success, the Wolverines will have to do another masterful job of keeping the defense guessing, and they’ll need Georgia to guess wrong at least a handful of times.  The most vulnerable area to attack this defense will be over the middle in the passing game.  An ideal situation would be a combination of the Wisconsin and Michigan State offensive game plans, with a much better running attack in the second half than we saw in East Lansing.  

Michigan Defense (7th) vs. Georgia Offense (3rd)

When the Bulldogs get the ball, there will be fascinating individual battles all across the field.  It seems like defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald will have junior safety Daxton Hill at his disposal, and that is a huge crisis averted.  Hill is the Michigan defender best suited to match up with the Dawgs’ most dangerous offensive weapons.  Georgia likes to get multiple tight ends onto the field, with the big bodies flexed out to block on the perimeter.  Dax has also been the Wolverines’ most consistent edge player in terms of taking on blocks and tackling quick screens.

In the vertical passing game, Georgia is likely welcoming back their most dangerous receiving threat, George Pickens.  Pickens suffered an ACL injury in March, but has taken limited snaps in the last two games for the Bulldogs.  The other major threat for MacDonald to account for with his scheme is true freshman tight end Brock Bowers.  Bowers has been the favorite target of QB Stetson Bennett in the absence of Pickens.  The Wolverines will need another herculean effort from their pass defense to contain those two, on par with the performance versus Ohio State’s wide receiving corps. 

With all that said, what Georgia really wants to do is establish the run game and march along the ground, very similarly to what we’ve seen from the Wolverines in 2021.  While Georgia boasts the 3rd ranked SP+ offense, they have earned that slot versus good-not-great defensive units.  Here are the top 5 SP+ defensive units on the Bulldogs’ schedule this year, with Georgia’s offensive points scored in parentheses: #3 Clemson (3); #10 Alabama (24); #21 Auburn (34); #27 Alabama-Birmingham (49); #34 Arkansas (30).  There is reason to believe that Michigan’s 7th-ranked defense can hold up against the Georgia run game.  Then the Bulldogs’ offensive tackles will be challenged to block both Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on passing downs.  

PREDICTION: Both teams will show their commitment to battling it out in the trenches via the run game, and I think both defenses will maintain the upper hand.  The early stalemate feeling may feel frustrating, but I would call that success for Michigan.  For most of Georgia’s season, they raced in front of teams via explosive plays, and then leaned on their historically tough defense.  Michigan has been in more gut-check moments in 2021, and should relish a close game in the 4th quarter.  At that point, I believe it will be up to the unheralded quarterbacks.  Stetson Bennett has a running element to his game that makes him dangerous, but I think Cade McNamara will show his mental toughness one more time and make the play the Wolverines need.
Michigan 25 Georgia 24

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (12/05/21), 12-1

  • SP+ Overall: 4th (same), 25.9
  • SP+ Offense: 16th (↑1), 37.7
  • SP+ Defense: 7th (same), 14.5
  • SP+ Special Teams: 3rd (↓1), 2.7

AP Poll: 2nd (same), 1,480

Coaches’ Poll: 2nd (↑1), 1,474

CFP Rank: 2nd (same)

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U-M Resume after Game #13
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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #09 – 12/27/2021 – COVID-19 Strikes Again

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team was supposed to play one game this past week, but it was canceled due to COVID-19 issues on the other team.  On Tuesday (12/21/2021), they were supposed to play Purdue-Fort Wayne in Crisler Arena.  The game will not be made up.  Michigan’s record remains at 7-4 (1-1 in Big Ten).

What Does It Mean?

This was a game that Michigan was expected to win, so it’s a shame they won’t get to play it.

Michigan’s resume for the Big Dance is slightly damaged by this cancellation, since every win counts, even against a lower-division opponent.  UM is still “on the bubble” for the NCAA Tournament.

What’s Next?

This week, Michigan only plays one game.  On Thursday (12/30/2021, 7:00 p.m., ESPN2) they play at Central Florida (UCF).  This is a rare away non-conference game.  Michigan usually plays all their non-conference games at home, using “buy” (or “guarantee”) games, except for holiday tournaments and the Gavitt (Big East/Big Ten Challenge) and ACC/Big Ten Challenge games.  This season, Michigan played a rare away exhibition game vs. Wayne State, a rare neutral court non-conference game (Washington D.C.) vs. Prairie View A&M, and now a rare away non-conference game at UCF.  It’s been a strange non-conference schedule.

Central Florida is currently 8-2 (1-0 in the AAC).  They have solid wins against Miami (FL) and Temple, and reasonable losses to Oklahoma and (#21) Auburn.  They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have some height: a 6’10” forward and a 6’11” center.  This will be a challenging game for Michigan, especially in a hostile arena.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!

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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #08 – 12/20/2021 – A Welcome Cupcake

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one game this past week, and they won it.  On Saturday (12/18/2021), they beat Southern Utah 87-50 in Crisler Arena.  The win raises Michigan’s record to 7-4 (1-1 in Big Ten).

What Happened?

Michigan had a light schedule this week, since the players are taking finals.  They only played one game, at home, against a lesser opponent.  SUU is a pretty good team with lots of experience, but not much height, and UM took advantage of the height differential.  The game was expected to be pretty close and competitive, but Michigan made SUU look helpless out there.  It was a fun, easy, stress-free game.

Michigan never trailed, but after an early tie (2-2), they only led by 1 point (11-10) at the 14:30 mark.  Over the next 4:35, Michigan went on a 14-0 run to push the lead up to 15 points (25-10) with 9:55 left in the half.  The lead was still 15 points (31-16) at the 8:11 mark, when UM went on another 14-0 run, to take the lead up to 29 points (45-16) with 2:12 to go.  It was still 29 points (49-20) at halftime.  At that point, the game was essentially over, and Michigan used the 2nd half as a glorified scrimmage, with lots of playing time for the lesser-used players.  UM kept the lead in the 30-34 point range for most of the half, although SUU did creep within “only” 28 points (69-41) at the 6:08 mark.  Michigan finished strong, and won by 37 points.  It was a solid, impressive performance.

Stats

The game stats are solid, but not too flashy.  Michigan shot well overall (36-for-64 = 56.3%), they shot 3-pointers pretty well (7-for-18 = 38.9%), and they shot free throws well enough (8-for-12 = 66.7%).  They won the rebounding battle handily (44-27), and they won the turnover battle barely (11-12).  They won this game with overall shooting and good defense, holding SUU to 32.8% overall shooting (19-for-58) and 17.4% shooting from 3-point range (4-for-23).

Who Started?

The starters were Eli Brooks, Moussa Diabate, Hunter Dickinson, Caleb Houstan, and DeVante’ Jones.

Who Looked Good?

Dickinson was the star of this game, with 22 points and 10 rebounds, for another double-double.  He also had 2 blocked shots, and held the two SUU centers to a combined 5 points.

Jones had the best game of his Michigan career, with 13 points on 5-for-6 shooting (3-for-3 from 3-point range).  He also dished out 6 assists against 1 turnover, all in only 22 minutes.  The young point guards got to play the other 18 minutes.

Houstan almost hit double figures, with 9 points.  He looked solid and comfortable out there.

Diabate also almost hit double figures, with 8 points, including two highlight-reel dunks.  He also had 8 rebounds, and helped Dickinson shut down the SUU centers.  On the negative side, he committed 4 fouls, and had 3 turnovers.

Kobe Bufkin had the best game of his young Michigan career, with 11 points on 4-for-9 shooting.  If only he could have hit a couple 3-pointers (0-for-3)…

Zeb Jackson had his best game of the season, with 8 points on 3-for-4 shooting (2-for-2 from 3-point range).  He did a nice job at point guard.

Frankie Collins didn’t score a lot of points (5), but he had a good game running the offense, with 3 assists vs. 0 turnovers.  He also had 4 rebounds.

Terrance Williams II also didn’t score many points (3), but he contributed in other ways, with 5 rebounds and 3 assists.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

For the first time this season, Brooks looked “not-so-good”.  He ended up with only 2 points, on 1-for-4 shooting, and had 2 turnovers against 3 assists.  He had hit double figures in every game up until this one.

Brandon Johns, Jr. had a lousy game, with 2 points on 2-for-3 free throw shooting, and no field goal attempts, in 12 minutes of “action”.

Who Else Played?

Jaron Faulds played for 2 minutes, and scored 2 points.

Jace Howard played for 7 minutes, but didn’t attempt a shot.

Adrien Nuñez played for 4 minutes, and scored 2 points.

Who Didn’t Play?

Isaiah Barnes and Will Tschetter are the scholarship players who didn’t play.

Ian Burns and Brandon Wade are the scout team players who didn’t play.

What Does It Mean?

This was a game that Michigan was expected to win, and they took care of business.  They opened up a big lead at halftime, so they were able to get some valuable game experience for some of the lesser-used players.  That will help when the grind of the Big Ten schedule starts in the new year.

At this point, Michigan is solidly “on the bubble” for the Big Dance.  They have plenty of opportunities to win big games in the Big Ten part of the schedule, but they don’t have a very big margin for error.  They need to get the youngsters ready to go, and hope for the best.

What’s Next?

This week, Michigan only plays one game.  On Tuesday (12/21/2021, 7:00 p.m., BTN) they play Purdue-Fort Wayne in Crisler Arena.

Purdue-Fort Wayne is currently 5-5 (1-1 in the Horizon League).  They have no impressive wins, and embarrassing losses to Western Michigan, Florida Gulf Coast, Wright State, and Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville.  They don’t have any noteworthy players, and they don’t have any height (one 6’9” player).  This is a game that Michigan should win easily.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!

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2021 Michigan Football — Playbook — Hand-Off — JJ McCarthy to Blake Corum

Let’s break down Michigan’s first touchdown in the Big Ten Championship versus Iowa.

Blake Corum had a blistering 67 yard touchdown run (with a little help from QB J.J McCarthy) that maybe would have been stopped if not for some blown assignments on the Iowa defense.

Blake Corum describes what he saw during the play

PRE-SNAP

The Michigan offense lines up in the pistol formation on the right hashmark with QB #9 J.J. McCarthy and RB #2 Blake Corum in the backfield. WR #5 Mike Sainristil goes in motion from the left side of formation.

Michigan is targeting the right side of the Iowa defense, pre-snap there are good gaps for a running play and bringing WR #5 Mike Sainristil brings an extra blocker to the point of attack.

POST SNAP

#2 Blake Corum takes the handoff from #9 J.J. McCarthy in the backfield.

Check out the Michigan offensive line- #77 Trevor Keegan and #68 Andrew Vastardis double team the Iowa down lineman in front of them, taking him out of the play. #65 Zak Zinter and #71 Andrew Steuber do the same to the down lineman in front of them.

At this point Iowa is in trouble- they have two defenders #44 and #28 to account for two Michigan players– TE #86 Luke Schoonmaker and WR #5 Mike Sainristil– and plenty of space for #2 Blake Corum to make some moves.

WR #5 Mike Sainristil comes in motion and ignores Iowa defensive end #92 as he crashes and takes himself out of the play. Sainristil heads downfield to block.

And here is where things go wrong from bad to worse for Iowa. Linebacker #44 steps up into the double team of #65 Zak Zinter and #71 Andrew Steuber taking himself out away from the point of attack. Linebacker #31 slides over and is in good position to stop Corum but inexplicably takes on #86 Luke Schoonmaker.

And Blake Corum is off to the races. Note the distance between Blake Corum and J.J. McCarthy. Now Blake had to slow down a bit to evade defenders but J.J made up an incredible amount of ground.

#Roman Wilson blocks a defender while #5 Mike Sainristil blocks for Blake Corum with J.J. McCarthy joining the attack.

#5 Mike Sainristil blocks #33.

#9 J.J. McCarthy places himself between a final Iowa defender, allowing Corum to score a touchdown.

Check out the clip below to see the entire play.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN9O8NHrKbI

PLAY DIAGRAM — THE ACTION

Corum took advantage of a few mis-steps by the Iowa defense and completes the scoring the play with the help of QB J.J. McCarthy whose hustle downfield makes the difference.