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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #07 – 12/13/2021 – The Lowering Of Raised Expectations

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games this past week, and they won one and lost the other.  On Tuesday (12/07/2021), they beat Nebraska 102-57 in Lincoln (NE), then on Saturday (12/11/2021), they lost to Minnesota 75-65 in Crisler Arena.  The win and the loss leave Michigan with a record of 6-4 (1-1 in Big Ten).

What Happened?

The Nebraska win was impressive and encouraging, but the Minnesota loss showed the ugly truth: this Michigan team is a long way from the promise they showed in preseason predictions.  It’s time to (significantly) lower the high expectations from the beginning of the season.  Sorry.

The Nebraska game was very smooth and low-stress.  Michigan never trailed, and once they broke the tie at 13-13 with 13:56 to go in the 1st half, they led the rest of the way.  In the 1st half, they pushed the lead up into the 18-20 point range, and kept it there, leading by 19 points (51-32) at halftime.  The beginning of the 2nd half was more of the same, with the lead still in the 18-20 point range until the 11:22 mark, when Michigan pushed it up into the 20s and 30s for the rest of the game.  Coach Howard emptied the bench for the final 5:00, and the subs did a nice job of keeping the lead in the 30s.

The Minnesota game was miserable.  Minnesota was picked universally as the sure-thing last place team in the Big Ten this season, and they made Michigan look silly out there.  The game was close and tight for the entire first half, with neither team getting ahead by more than 6 points.  It was all tied up (30-30) with 2:03 to go in the half, when Michigan went on a nice 6-2 run to end the half, up by 4 (36-32).  The 2nd half was a disaster.  Minnesota scored 7 straight points to go up by 3 (39-36) at the 17:29 mark, and they never trailed again.  Michigan did get within 1 point (41-40) with 15:23 to go, but then Minnesota pulled off a 6-point possession on a foul off the ball during a made 3-pointer, which gave them the ball for a second 3-pointer.  That was the deciding play of the game.  It gave Minnesota all the momentum they would need to hold off Michigan.  Minnesota had hot shooting in the 2nd half (16-for-25 = 64.0%) and Michigan was cold (11-for-26 = 42.3%).  It was miserable.

Stats

The game stats for the Nebraska game are very nice.  Michigan shot well overall (39-for-76 = 51.3%), they shot 3-pointers very well (15-for-32 = 46.9%), and they shot free throws well enough (9-for-12 = 75.0%).  They won the rebounding battle decisively (54-38), but they lost the turnover battle (12-9).  They won this game with 3-point shooting.  They’ll win just about every game where they make 15 3-pointers on less than 40 attempts.

The game stats for the Minnesota game are terrible.  Michigan shot poorly overall (26-for-55 = 47.3%), they shot 3-pointers very poorly (3-for-18 = 16.7%), and they shot free throws poorly (10-for-16 = 62.5%).  They won the rebounding battle (34-28), but they lost the turnover battle (8-4).  They lost the game with poor 3-point shooting.  They’ll lose just about every game where they make less than five 3-pointers.

Who Started?

The starters for the Nebraska game were Eli Brooks, Hunter Dickinson, Caleb Houstan, Brandon Johns, Jr., and DeVante’ Jones.  Johns started in place of Moussa Diabate, who was out with the flu.  He was back as a starter for the Minnesota game.

Who Looked Good?

Dickinson played well in both games, scoring 15 and 19 points.  He also had 12 and 10 rebounds, for two double-doubles.  He even hit another 3-pointer, against Nebraska.  He did his part.

Brooks continues to be the most consistent player on the team.  He hit double figures in both games, with 10 points vs. Nebraska, and 12 points vs. Minnesota.  He didn’t shoot a very good percentage (3-for-10 vs. Nebraska, and 5-for-14 vs. Minnesota).

Houstan actually had a pretty good week, with 16 points vs. Nebraska and 8 points vs. Minnesota.  He shot well in the Nebraska game (6-for-9), but not so much in the Minnesota game (2-for-7).

Diabate played pretty well in his one game this week, with 7 points and (a career-high) 13 rebounds.

Johns had a real Jekyll-and-Hyde week, with 20 points (tying his career high) vs. Nebraska and 0 points on 0 shots in 13 minutes vs. Minnesota.  He was brilliant in the Nebraska game, and lousy in the Minnesota game.

Terrance Williams II also had a Jekyll-and-Hyde week, with 22 points (a career high) vs. Nebraska and 0 points vs. Minnesota.  Just like Johns.

Jones was yet another player who had a Jekyll-and-Hyde week, but with a twist: he had a lousy game scoring (3 points on 1-for-5 shooting) vs. Nebraska, and a good game scoring (14 points on 6-for-12 shooting) vs. Minnesota.  On the positive side, he had 11 assists for the week (8 vs. Nebraska, 3 vs. Minnesota), against 0 turnovers.

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

Frankie Collins had a mediocre week, with 2 and 5 points.

Who Else Played?

Kobe Bufkin played for 11 minutes in the Nebraska game, and scored 5 points.

Ian Burns played for 1 minute in the Nebraska game, but didn’t attempt a shot.

Jaron Faulds played for 7 minutes in the Nebraska game, and scored 4 points.

Zeb Jackson played for 15 minutes in the Nebraska game, and scored 5 points.

Who Didn’t Play?

Isaiah Barnes, Jace Howard, Adrien Nuñez, and Will Tschetter are the scholarship players who didn’t play in either game.

Brandon Wade also didn’t play in either game.  He’s on the scout team, so he’s a lower priority for minutes.

What Does It Mean?

The Minnesota loss is devastating, but it’s still only one loss.  The important thing is to not let it turn into a losing attitude.  This is a young, fragile team.  When they’re up, they look pretty good, but they have yet to handle any true adversity.  If they play the way they did vs. Nebraska, they’ll do fine vs. any team left on their schedule.  If they play the way they did vs. Minnesota, they could lose to anyone.  If the young players on the team continue to grow and improve, by the end of the season this could be a scary-good tournament team that no one wants to face.  Or, they could pack it in by mid-February and just play out the string.

What’s Next?

This week, Michigan only plays one game.  On Saturday (12/18/2021, 7:00 p.m., BTN) they play Southern Utah in Crisler Arena.

Southern Utah is currently 7-3 (2-0 in the Big Sky).  They have no impressive wins, and embarrassing losses to Dixie State University and St. Mary’s College of California.  They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have a 6’11” center.  This is a game that Michigan should be able to win, if they stay focused.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!

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Nothing But ‘Net – Week #06 – 12/06/2021 – A Tale Of Two Hunters

The (#24) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games this past week, and they won one and lost one.  On Wednesday (12/01/2021), they lost at North Carolina 72-51, then on Saturday (12/04/2021), they beat San Diego State 72-58 in Crisler Arena.  The win and the loss leave Michigan with a record of 5-3.

What Happened?

This is Hunter Dickinson’s team.  If he has a lousy game, the  team is not going to stand a very good chance of winning, especially against a very good team like North Carolina on the road.  Hunter looked slow, sluggish, and disinterested in the UNC game, and the team followed him down the drain.  Fortunately, he woke up and played a solid, aggressive game against SDSU, and the team rallied around him.

The UNC game was very close for the whole 1st half, with Michigan actually leading for much of the half.  With 2:52 left in the half, Michigan had their biggest lead of the half, 27-22.  Unfortunately, they let UNC go on a 7-0 run to end the half, so UNC led by 2 at halftime, 29-27.  Michigan tied the game in the opening seconds of the 2nd half, then they fell apart.  UNC just kept increasing their lead, pushing it up to 25 points before cruising to a 21-point win.  Michigan never really challenged UNC in the last 10 minutes.  It was sad.

The SDSU was close for the first 9 minutes, with SDSU clinging to a 1-point lead (13-12) at the 11:16 mark.  At that point, Michigan went on a 14-3 run to open up a 10-point lead (26-16) with 8:36 to go in the half.  Michigan kept the lead in the 7-9 point range for a while, and still led by 9 (30-21) at the 5:36 mark.  That’s when Michigan went cold and SDSU got hot.  The Aztecs went on a 13-3 run, to go up 1 point (34-33) with 0:18 left in the half.  Fortunately, Dickinson hit a 3-pointer (!) with 0:04 to go, and Michigan led at halftime, 36-34.  SDSU tied the game early in the 2nd half, then Michigan took control of the game.  They led by as many as 21 points, before settling for a 14-point win.

Stats

The game stats for the UNC game are sad.  Michigan shot very poorly overall (20-for-57 = 35.1%), they shot 3-pointers pretty poorly (5-for-16 = 31.3%), but they did shoot free throws perfectly (6-for-6 = 100.0%).  They lost the rebounding battle by a little (38-35), but they lost the turnover battle by a lot (13-6).  They lost this game with poor shooting and turnovers.

The game stats for the SDSU game are better.  Michigan shot pretty well overall (28-for-60 = 46.7%), they shot 3-pointers very well (11-for-20 = 55.0%), but they shot free throws pretty poorly (5-for-11 = 45.5%).  They won the rebounding battle (36-33) and the turnover battle (13-16).  They won this game with 3-point shooting.

Who Started?

The starters were Eli Brooks, Moussa Diabate, Hunter Dickinson, Caleb Houstan, and DeVante’ Jones.  Diabate started in place of Brandon Johns, Jr., who wasn’t contributing much.

Who Looked Good?

Brooks continues to be the most consistent player on the team.  He was the only player to hit double figures in both games, with 11 points vs. UNC, and 10 points vs. SDSU.  He didn’t shoot a very good percentage (5-for-11 vs. UNC, and 3-for-11 vs. SDSU).

Remember when I talked about “a tale of two Hunters”?  Here are his stats: 2-for-5, for 4 points, vs. UNC, and 10-for-16, for 23 points, vs. SDSU.  He also had 14 rebounds vs. SDSU, for another double-double.  Remember when I said that he hit a 3-pointer just before halftime in the SDSU game?  It gets better than that: he actually was 3-for-3 from 3-point range in the SDSU game!  Last season, he was 0-for-4 from 3-point range; this season, he’s shooting 4-for-8.  It’s a great addition to his game.

Houstan is getting more comfortable out there.  He almost hit double figures in both games, with 8 points vs. UNC, and a career-high 17 points vs. SDSU.  He’s starting to hit his 3-pointers: 2-for-4 vs. UNC, and 4-for-5 vs. SDSU.

Diabate was the leading scorer for Michigan vs. UNC, with 13 points, but he was limited to 2 points in only 7 minutes of action against SDSU.  He started the SDSU game, but left the game after only 7 minutes and didn’t return.  Apparently, he felt ill, a non-injury issue.  His status going forward is unknown.

Frankie Collins has been getting more playing time, and may soon replace Jones as the starting point guard.  He scored a few points this week (4 and 8) and he played a lot of minutes (12 and 24).

Who Looked Not-So-Good?

Jones had a mediocre week, with 4 points in each game.  He just isn’t working out.

Johns also had a mediocre week, with 5 and 3 points.

Terrance Williams II played in both games, and scored 0 and 5 points.

Who Else Played?

Isaiah Barnes played for 3 minutes in the UNC game, but didn’t attempt a shot.

Kobe Bufkin played for 3 minutes in the UNC game, and scored 2 points.

Jaron Faulds played for 3 minutes in the UNC game, but didn’t attempt a shot.

Zeb Jackson played for 3 minutes in each game, but didn’t score.

Who Didn’t Play?

Jace Howard, Adrien Nuñez, and Will Tschetter are the scholarship players who didn’t play.

Ian Burns and Brandon Wade are on the scout team, so they’re a lower priority for minutes.

What Does It Mean?

It’s obvious that Michigan was seriously overrated at the start of the season, and I bought into the hype.  This is not looking like a Big Ten title contender, and not even like an upper division team.  At this point, I’d say the ceiling is 10-10 in the league, and maybe a First Four bid to the NCAA Tournament.

The team has problems at point guard, shooting guard, and center, and they are very young at forward.  Jones is not working out at point guard, and the other options are either young (Bufkin and Collins) or not a true point guard (Brooks and Jackson).  Brooks is OK in his role as shooting guard, but he has no capable backup.  Dickinson is great at center when he’s “on”, but the team is helpless when he’s “off”.  Diabate is very talented at forward, but doesn’t play like a big man when he’s spelling Dickinson at center.  He’s more of a finesse player than a “banger”.  Houstan is steadily improving at forward, but he and Diabate are both very young and inexperienced.  Johns and Williams aren’t contributing much.

I understand that this is a young team, and that they could start getting better as the season progresses.  At this point, they are just looking young.

What’s Next?

This week, Michigan plays two games.  On Tuesday (12/07/2021, 7:00 p.m. EST, ESPN2) they play at Nebraska, then on Saturday (12/11/2021, 6:30 p.m., FS1) they play Minnesota in Crisler Arena.

Nebraska is currently 5-4 overall (0-1 in Big Ten).  They have no impressive wins, and losses to Southern Illinois and Creighton.  They don’t have any noteworthy players, but they do have some height: a 6’10” freshman, a 6’11” freshman, and a 7’0” freshman.  This is a game that Michigan should be able to win, if they stay focused.

Minnesota is currently 7-0 overall (0-0 in Big Ten).  Other than beating Pittsburgh, they don’t have any noteworthy wins.  They don’t have any noteworthy players, and they only have one tall player, a 6’11” freshman.  This is another game that Michigan should be able to win, especially at home.

Check back next week to find out what happened and why.

Go Blue!

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Michigan 42 Iowa 3 – 2021 Big Ten Championship Game Recap

GAME 13 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 42-3, Michigan by 39 over Iowa
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 11.1 (+27.9)
CD Projection: Michigan by 18 (+21)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 13 RECAP vs. Iowa (Big Ten Championship)

Football is an emotional sport. It’s very difficult to play the game well without wearing all your passion on your sleeve. However, you have to harness that emotional power. Players have to use their emotion as fuel.

Coaching football is a very interesting high wire act. You have to inspire your players to bring the maximum emotional energy, but you yourself have to try to stay balanced. You have to be a model of how to wield that control over your emotions. Coaches love to preach about not getting too high, or too low. Peaks and valleys ideally have very little space between them, in a coach’s eyes.

Being a fan is almost the inverse of all that. It is pure unbridled emotion all the time. It’s constant emotional escalation, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The valleys get excavated to greater depths. The mountains are stacked upon to push the peaks higher into the stratosphere.

I try to be much closer to objective than most fans. It helps me modulate my own emotion to dive into the numbers immediately. In the press box, I don’t know how well I could contain myself if I wasn’t plunking away on my keyboard recording the play data. That is why this recap is coming out the day AFTER the Big Ten Championship game. Last night, I couldn’t focus on the numbers. I was up in the clouds with the rest of the Wolverines. Sorry, not sorry.

Offensively, Michigan was near perfectly balanced. With garbage time removed, the play calls were 50/50 run to pass. Michigan amassed 461 total yards: 250 yards passing (54%) and 211 yards rushing (46%).

Hassan Haskins carried most of the workload with 17 carries, but it was the Zoom half of the #BoomAndZoom combo that set the pace. Blake Corum kicked off the scoring with a 67 yard touchdown run in the first quarter.

Donovan Edwards followed that up on the next offensive snap on the ensuing drive. Edwards caught a swing pass on the edge, and then uncorked a beautiful 46 yard spiral to Roman Wilson for a 75-yard touchdown.

Iowa showed a lot of guts by staying in the fight and battling through the entire 2nd quarter, and most of the 3rd. But eventually the dam broke and 21 points came like a tidal wave in the 4th quarter.

On defense, Michigan made the key plays when they had to. Aidan Hutchinson was relentless for the entire game, and earned Big Ten Championship Game MVP honors for his efforts: 1 sack and 7 QB pressures.

Josh Ross led the Wolverines with 9 tackles while Michigan absolutely strangled the Iowa rushing attack. The Hawkeyes could only muster an 18% Success Rate on run plays, with garbage time removed. They ended with 32 carries for 114 sack-adjusted yards, 3.5 yards per carry,

The special teams units put the cherry on top of the championship sundae. Brad Robbins flipped the field as Iowa was grasping for their last breath in the 3rd quarter. His 64-yard punt moved the ball from Michigan’s 13 yard line to the Iowa 23 yard line. The Hawkeyes never moved back into Michigan territory.

After that next Iowa possession, Jay Harbaugh unleashed another punt block. Cornelius Johnson, the Wolverines’ leading receiver of the season, blocked his 2nd punt of the year. A couple JJ McCarthy runs, a Cade McNamara dime, and a Haskins plunge finished off the sequence to provide a perfect microcosm of Michigan’s brand of complementary football.

Kudos to the Michigan Football program. The players have been a joy to watch. The coaches had to envision this path before it could be reality. Aidian Hutchinson spoke in the post game about the connection between Michigan’s 42 points and Oxford HS junior Tate Myre’s #42 jersey. “God works in mysterious ways,” said Hutchinson. I pray we can all pull together like this program has. They have been a true inspiration.

Hail! To the Victors: the 2021 Michigan Wolverines, the greatest Michigan football team of this generation.

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