2024 Game 5 – Michigan 27 Minnesota 24 Game Photos
Michigan 27 Minnesota 24 – Game 5 Recap
GAME 5 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS
Final Score: 27-24, Michigan by 3 over Minnesota
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 12.0 (-9.0)
CD Projection: Michigan by 15 (-12)
FIVE FACTORS
GAME 5 RECAP vs. Minnesota
Michigan offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell answered the bell. This game plan was solid, and creative. We saw personnel adjustments that better utilized the Wolverines’ talent, even with Semaj Morgan sidelined. Unfortunately, Michigan is still one or two mistakes away from efficient execution. Kalel Mullings cashed in on a long run, and a short field to score two first quarter touchdowns. A blocked punt led to a 3rd score and a 21-3 halftime lead. The yardage told a different story, though. The Gophers outgained Michigan 130-107 in the first half, and 166-134 in the second half. Coleston Loveland still looks less than 100%, and now Myles Hinton adds another big injury concern at left tackle.
While it was clearly a story of two halves for Michigan overall, the defense was a little different. The Wolverines looked dominant in the 1st and 3rd quarters, but could not get the big stops necessary in the 2nd and 4th quarters. Linebacker Ernest Hausmann led the effort with 9 total tackles, and Mason Graham led with 2 tackles for loss. Maybe the highlight of the game was an acrobatic interception by Jayaire Hill on a deep bomb along the sideline. Hill was in great position, got his head around to find the ball, made the pick with his hands and managed to toe tap in bounds.
Placekicker Dominic Zvada reentered the scoring sheet with two field goals, and provided the eventual game winning points. Tommy Doman averaged nearly 47 yards per punt, but a first half touchback, and a big 60-yard return in the second half killed the net effect. Michigan averaged just 26.4 net yards per punt, and lost a significant field position advantage in the second half.
Right now Michigan Football feels like a boxer who has been stunned, and just needs to hang in there until the bell. The injuries are piling up, and it seems like most other teams have had their first bye week at this point. The Wolverines will need to get back to work right away to prep for their first road trip out west to Seattle next week. Then they will feel the relief of some rest during a bye week. The Michigan staff needs to tighten up their execution to ride their complementary football style to another victory before the break. Smash!
By the Numbers: Game 5 vs. Minnesota
LAST WEEK RECAP
The Wolverines scored with under a minute remaining to take the lead, and held on to secure the 27-24 victory over the USC Trojans in an instant classic. The defense held their own against a top-tier offense, and Kalel Mullings was an absolute beast on the ground, including a Jim Brown style rumble for 63 yards on the game winning drive.
NEXT UP: vs. Minnesota: SP+ 47th, 6.3
PREGAME SP+: Michigan by 12.0, Michigan Win Probability 77%
The Vegas lines are finally shifting closer to the SP+ model output. Right now Michigan is a 10.5 point betting favorite, and SP+ likes the Wolverines by 12. I am surprised Minnesota’s defense stayed ranked in the top 20 after allowing Iowa to score 31 points last week.
Michigan Offense (61st) vs. Minnesota Defense (17th)
All the analysis and prognostication is centered on this match up with Alex Orji making his second start at QB. After going 7-for-12 for 32 yards passing last game, a huge portion of the Michigan fan base wants to see more passing game competence. Unfortunately for them, rainy conditions in the Big House will likely limit the play calling options available to offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. The Wolverines are completely satisfied duplicating what worked for them last week versus USC, because it also worked just fine for Iowa in a 31-14 victory in Minneapolis. For me, the most important thing is getting your five best offensive weapons onto the field together as frequently as possible. Kalel Mullings, Coleston Loveland, Donovan Edwards, Max Bredeson, and Semaj Morgan should see a lion’s share of the snaps in order to threaten the entire field.
Michigan Defense (5th) vs. Minnesota Offense (89th)
Put very simply, this is a David vs. Goliath mismatch. Michigan has to handle their business down-to-down to avoid giving the Gophers any sense of confidence. Under PJ Fleck, Minnesota has been a run-first offense with a smash mentality similar to Sherrone Moore’s Wolverines. However, this year they are more reliant on a super dangerous wide receiver #9 Daniel Jackson, and transfer QB from New Hampshire #16 Max Brosmer. One potential snag for Michigan could be depth at the defensive back position. Will Johnson was not 100% healthy to finish last week’s game, so #20 Jyaire Hill and #12 Aamir Hall may be called on to answer the challenge against Jackson. I expect Michigan’s defensive line to wreak havoc on the Gophers all day, but the defensive backs will have to avoid coverage busts and missed tackles that have been too commonplace to start this season.
PREDICTION: Michigan will likely need to build their own energy down on the sidelines. It’s a grey, rainy day in Ann Arbor that might suppress the enthusiasm of the Big House crowd after last week’s classic comeback. I expect the defense to set up the offense with a couple short fields, and if Orji and the offense cash those possessions in early, this could become a blow out. Right now, I need to see a little cleaner execution from the offensive line, and more creativity with personnel from Kirk Campbell before I start predicting high score totals for the Wolverines.
Michigan 21 Minnesota 6 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Minnesota 9)
MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE 09/14/24, 3-1
CFP Rank: N/A
SP+ Overall: 15th (↓3), 15.8
SP+ Offense: 61st (↓4), 28.5
SP+ Defense: 5th (↓1), 13.1
SP+ Special Teams: 2nd (↑9), 0.4
AP Poll: 12th (↑6), 805
Coaches’ Poll: 12th (↑5), 692
Little Brown Jug — Looking Back – 2015
Looking Back is a Special Feature by Jeff Cummins
The fifth and final installment of the series looking back at the Little Brown Jug rivalry takes us back to 2015. Three years of Rich Rodriguez followed by four years of Brady Hoke left fans and alumni desperate for a positive change. Jim Harbaugh was brought home with a clear mandate: Restore Michigan to its former glory.
Halfway through the season, Michigan had shut out three consecutive opponents, but a punting mishap against Michigan State revived a lot of dreadful memories. Were the Wolverines destined to toil in mediocrity?
The 2015 Little Brown Jug game stared innocently enough. Joey Kerridge scored on a 1-yard fullback dive to give Michigan a 7-3 lead. Then Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock threw a dart to Jehu Chesson for a touchdown to extend Michigan’s lead to 14-3. For a moment, it was starting to feel like an early night for Michigan fans, but Minnesota coach Jerry Kill had instilled a feisty quality in his team, and the next three hours would have Michigan fans searching for the antacid tablets.
The teams traded punches and the lead for the rest of the game. With just a little under five minutes left, Michigan backup quarterback Wilton Speight made arguably the biggest play of his career, connecting with tight end Jake Butt in the end zone to give Michigan the lead. He then bought enough time on the conversion to find Amara Darboh for two points to ensure that a field goal couldn’t beat Michigan. Now the burden shifted back to the Michigan defense.
The defense came very close to ending the game with no drama. Minnesota faced a 3rd down and 17 yards to go, with Michigan in the driver’s seat. Minnesota quarterback Mitch Lender threw a screen pass and Michigan missed a couple of tackles, allowing Rodney Smith to gain 17 yards and the first down. Leidner completed the drive by connecting with Drew Wolitarsky, who caught the ball and landed in the end zone. For a few moments, Michigan fans were contemplating defeat.
But replay confirmed that Wolitarsky’s knee hit the ground before he reached the goal line. Minnesota had the ball inside the Michigan 1-yard line. The situation was far from ideal, but at least now Michigan had a chance. There were 19 seconds left on the clock, but when the clock started, Minnesota wasted a lot of time, only snapping the ball with about seven seconds remaining. On the next play, Leidner scrambled under pressure, and lofted a harmless pass that fell incomplete with two seconds on the clock. There was time for only one more play.
Fortunately, Michigan adhered to the old football adage, “low man wins.” Minnesota lined up in a full house backfield, but Leidner tried to score on a quarterback sneak. He crashed into a veritable wall of humanity, but he never moved the ball across the goal line. Officials reviewed the film, but the call on the field was not changed. Michigan used a goal line stand to stop Minnesota on the final play and win, 29-26.
Michigan starting quarterback Jake Rudock went on to have a very good season, dominating Florida in the Orlando Citrus Bowl in a 41-7 Michigan win. Many members of the Michigan team went on to play in the NFL, but few ever played in a game more exciting than the 2015 Little Brown Jug game.
Many thanks to ESPN, YouTube, and YouTube poster CFB Fans for the broadcast of this game. As always, we own nothing and this blog post is provided strictly for the enjoyment of readers.
Michigan Wolverine Football Podcast — Game 5 Preview — Minnesota
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Tune into the latest podcast as @pcallihan and @Clint_Derringer dive into Michigan’s battle with Minnesota for the Little Brown Jug stressing the need for a dominant win to build momentum. They dive into Michigan’s strong running game, Alex Orji’s role as starting quarterback, and the team’s need to show offensive creativity. The duo also highlights Minnesota’s defensive strengths and offensive weaknesses, predicting a Michigan victory. With key players like Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards set to play pivotal roles, this episode offers a comprehensive look at Michigan’s strategies and potential for success. Listen in for expert analysis and game insights!
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