Category: Featured

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they lost one and won one. On Tuesday (01/09/2018), they lost to (#5) Purdue 70-69 in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (01/13/2018), they won at (#4) Michigan State 82-72. The loss and the win leave Michigan with a record of 15-4 (4-2 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

This week was SO CLOSE to being a perfect week. The win over MSU was huge, and very unexpected, but the loss to Purdue was heartbreaking. After trailing for most of the game, UM fought back in the closing moments of the Purdue game, only to have it stolen away by some lousy officiating. If the last 6.2 seconds of the game had been called correctly, Michigan could have won that game, but the officials blew it.

Purdue is a very good team, and they played very well. They outplayed Michigan for much of the game, and had a couple 14-point leads, but they couldn’t stop the relentless UM comeback in the 2^nd half. The game was all tied up (69-69) with 28 seconds left, and Michigan had the ball with no shot clock. They ran the clock down to 6 seconds, and drove in for the go-ahead layup, or at least a foul. Instead, Purdue knocked the ball away, and the officials (correctly) signaled that it was UM’s ball. No problem, still plenty of time to take a go-ahead shot. Actually, they could have called a reach-in foul on the knock-away, but instead they viewed the replay for almost 5 minutes, then gave the ball to Purdue! Absolutely wrong! They compounded the error with 4 seconds left on the clock when they called a foul on Michigan on a clean take-away. The Purdue player hit one of the two free throws, and Michigan’s last second heave from near half-court rimmed out. The Purdue players danced like they had won the National Championship, the boos rained down, and the officials hustled off the court, the damage done. They were terrible, just terrible.

If you had told me that UM would go 1-1 last week, I would have been positive that it was a home win vs. Purdue and a road loss at MSU, not the other way around. UM rarely wins at MSU, and MSU has a loaded team this season. The game was close most of the way, with UM holding a small lead most of the game. MSU led by 3 at halftime (37-34), but the lead changed hands several times in the first 11+ minutes of the 2^nd half. The turning point came at the 8:10 mark, with MSU up by one point (55-54). UM hit a 3-pointer, and never trailed again. Once Michigan got the lead up to 7-9 points, they kept it there. It was a very impressive win.

Stats

The stats for the Purdue game are actually pretty solid. Michigan shot pretty well overall (26-for-58 = 44.8%), they shot 3-pointers very well (10-for-22 = 45.5%), and they shot free throws reasonably well (7-for-11 = 63.6%). They won the rebounding battle (36-29) which is stunning, considering Purdue’s height advantage (a 7’2″ guy with a 7’3″ backup), but they lost the turnover battle (9-8). The reason Purdue won the game was their 3-point shooting (12-for-21 = 57.1%), including 5-for-5 to start the game, and 7-for-10 in the 1^st half. It was like a videogame for much of the 1^st half.

The stats for the MSU game are not nearly as impressive. Michigan shot decently overall (24-for-57 = 42.1%), they shot 3-pointers OK (6-for-15 = 40.0%), and they shot free throws pretty well (28-for-35 = 80.0%). Michigan lost the rebounding battle (31-32), but won the turnover battle big time (7-18). The important stat here is free throws. That’s where Michigan won the game. Why did Michigan shoot 35 free throws (and why did MSU shoot 32 free throws)? Because “TV Teddy” Valentine and his motley crew called 51 fouls in 40 minutes (25 against UM, 26 against MSU).

Who Looked Good

The starters for the Purdue game were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner. Isaiah Livers has been playing better than Robinson lately, so he got the start in the MSU game.

The star this week was definitely Wagner, with 11 points vs. Purdue, and a career-high 27 points vs. MSU, on 8-for-13 overall shooting (3-for-4 from 3-point range), and 8-for-8 shooting from the free throw line. He did a decent job defending the 7’2″ and 7’3″ guys from Purdue, and a great job defending the MSU centers.

If Wagner was “#1” this week, Simpson was “#1A”. He scored 15 points vs. Purdue (Michigan’s high scorer) and a career-high 16 points vs. MSU, had 5 assists in each game, and grabbed 6 and 4 rebounds. His only weak spot was free throw shooting: 1-for-2 vs. Purdue, and 5-for-10 vs. MSU. Michigan only missed 7 free throws vs. MSU, and he missed 5 of them. Sigh.

Matthews had a good week, with double figures in both games (14 and 10 points). He wasn’t very efficient (5-for-14 vs. Purdue, 3-for-10 vs. MSU), but he was UM’s leading rebounder (7) vs. Purdue.

MAAR had a pretty good week, with 7 and 14 points. He was also inefficient (3-for-9 and 3-for-11), but he did a good job on defense.

Livers hit double figures (10 points) off the bench vs. Purdue, and 6 points as a starter vs. MSU. He played hard in both games, and is becoming a solid defender. I really liked his dunk with 11 seconds left in the MSU game.

Jon Teske played in both games, and scored 0 and 4 points. He wasn’t much of a factor on offense, but he did play good defense, and he grabbed some important rebounds. He also gave Wagner a rest every now and then.

Jordan Poole continued to provide quality minutes off the bench, scoring 8 and 2 points.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Robinson played in both games, and didn’t do much. He scored 4 and 3 points, but was overwhelmed on the defensive end.

Eli Brooks played a few minutes in each game as the 2^nd point guard. He failed to score. He plays good defense, and he runs the offense pretty well, but he isn’t much of a factor offensively.

Who Else Played

Austin Davis played for 2 minutes in the MSU game, and failed to score. He did commit 2 fouls.

Who Didn’t Play

Jaaron Simmons, Ibi Watson, and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) all failed to get into either game.

The Big Picture

This was a big week for Michigan, and it could have been even bigger. At 4-2 in Big Ten play, Michigan is right in the thick of things, but Purdue and (what?) Ohio State are both undefeated in league play and tied for 1^st place. They played both Purdue and MSU tough, and if they continue to play that well, they’ll finish in the top half of the Big Ten standings.

Predicted Win Total

Michigan won a “Should Lose” game and lost a “Toss Up” game. They’re at 15 wins, with 12 games left. If they can split those, that would be 6 more wins, so I’m moving the Predicted Win Total up one game.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 20

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays three games, all in the Big Ten. On Monday (01/15/2018, 6:30 p.m., FS1), Michigan plays Maryland in Crisler Arena, on Thursday (01/18/2018, 9:00 p.m. EST, BTN), they play at Nebraska, then on Sunday (01/21/2018, 12:00 p.m., BTN), they play Rutgers in Crisler Arena. Combined with the MSU game on 01/13/2018, that’s 4 games in 8 days.

Maryland is currently 14-5 (3-3 in the Big Ten). They don’t have any impressive wins, and their only embarrassing loss was to St. Bonaventure. Michigan should win this game, but it could be tricky.

Nebraska is currently 12-7 (3-3 in the Big Ten). They’ve got a few impressive wins (Minnesota, Northwestern, and Wisconsin), and a few unimpressive losses (St. John’s, UCF, and Penn State). It’s always tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, and I expect this game to be a tough one.

Rutgers is currently 11-8 (1-5 in the Big Ten). They’ve got a couple impressive wins (#15 Seton Hall and Wisconsin), and a couple embarrassing losses (Stony Brook and Hartford). After a few years as the doormat of the Big Ten, Rutgers is moving up in the standings a little. They aren’t the automatic win they used to be. They took MSU to overtime in Breslin last week before losing. I expect Michigan to beat them, especially in Crisler, but it won’t be as easy as it used to be.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they won both of them. On Tuesday (01/02/2018), they won at Iowa, 75-68, then on Saturday (01/06/2018), they beat Illinois 79-69, in Crisler Arena. The two wins raise Michigan’s record to 14-3 (3-1 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

After playing two Big Ten games early in December (12/02/2017 win at home vs. Indiana, and 12/04/2017 loss at Ohio State), Michigan resumed Big Ten play in the new year with two solid wins against middle-of-the-pack teams. The Iowa game was a “toss up” game, but the Illinois game was a “should win” game. Regardless, they were games that Michigan was favored to win, and they took care of business. The Iowa win was definitely more impressive, since it’s tough to win on the road anywhere in the Big Ten, and Michigan hadn’t won in Iowa since 2011.

The early stages of the Iowa game were sloppy, with Iowa leading 10-7 at the 14:07 mark. Michigan went on a nice 22-4 run to build up a comfortable 15-point lead (29-14) with 8:11 to go in the half. Iowa crept back within 8 points (35-27), and Michigan answered with a 9-0 run to push the lead up to 17 (44-27), at the 4:02 mark. Iowa closed the half with a 9-4 run of their own, to make it a 12-point game at halftime, 48-36.

Iowa continued their run at the start of the 2^nd half, and pulled to within 7 points (48-41) with 17:23 to go. But, that was as close as they got the rest of the game, while Michigan pushed the lead as high as 17 points (71-54) along the way. Every time Iowa got the lead down under 10 points, Michigan answered with a run of their own to push it back into double digits. It was a solid, encouraging performance.

The first 13:25 of the Illinois game were really ugly. Heck, the first 15 seconds were ugly. Michigan won the opening tip, and threw the ball away on their first pass, then fouled trying to get the ball back. Michigan had 7 turnovers, 7 fouls, and 14 missed shots in the first 13:25 of the half, and trailed by 8 points (21-13). They finally settled down, and went on a 12-2 run to take the lead (25-23) with 4:06 to go. They still led by 2 points (31-29) with 1:58 left in the half, then let Illinois finish the half on a 5-0 run to lead by 3 at halftime, 34-31.

Michigan came out of the locker room fired up, and played some crisp basketball to start the 2^nd half. They quickly erased the Illinois lead, and went up by 5 points (41-36) before the 1^st media timeout. They pushed the lead up to 9 points (51-42) with 12:52 to go, and kept the lead in the 9-11 point range the rest of the way, winning by 10 points.

It seems weird to complain about the officiating in a 10-point win, but the refs for the Illinois game (Bo Boroski, Chris Beaver, and Kelly Pfeifer) were as bad as they get, even for the Big Ten. They called way too many fouls (22 on Illinois, 17 on Michigan, 39 total), many of them “phantom fouls”, and they were obsessed with offensive fouls. I don’t think their terrible officiating changed the outcome of the game, but it made it unwatchable at times.

Stats

The stats for the Iowa game are pretty impressive. Michigan shot well overall (28-for-57 = 49.1%), they shot 3-pointers very well (11-for-25 = 44.0%), and they shot free throws very well (8-for-10 = 80.0%). They just barely lost the rebounding battle (31-30), and they won the turnover battle (10-13). As I’ve said many times, when the 3-pointers are falling, this team looks great.

The stats for the Illinois game are also impressive. Once again, Michigan shot well overall (26-for-51 = 51.0%), they shot 3-pointers well (8-for-20 = 40.0%), and they shot free throws well (19-for-24 = 79.2%). They lost the rebounding battle again (31-27), and they won the turnover battle again (15-17). 15 turnovers is a lot for this team, but they managed to do enough other things right to win the game.

Who Looked Good

The starters for the Iowa game were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Eli Brooks, Charles Matthews, Duncan Robinson, and Moritz Wagner. Zavier Simpson has been playing better than Brooks lately, so he got the start in the Illinois game.

MAAR had a big week, with double figures in both games (15 and 13), and lots of other nice stats: 11 rebounds (7 and 4), 10 assists (6 and 4), and 4 steals (2 and 2). That’s called “stuffing the stat sheet”.

Matthews was the only other starter to hit double figures in the both games (14 and 10), but he just barely made it in the Illinois game. He’s the player who got the 1^st foul, 15 seconds into the game, so he sat for a while. He came back in 6 minutes later, and picked up his 2^nd foul in less than a minute, so he sat for the rest of the half. He started the 2^nd half, and managed to play about 3 minutes before picking up his 3^rd foul on a VERY questionable offensive foul call. This was probably the worst call we’ve seen this season, and it really got the crowd riled up. When Matthews finally got back in at the 11:31 mark, he managed to avoid any more fouls, and he finally got to play and score.

The only other player to hit double figures in both games wasn’t a starter, it was Isaiah Livers. He looked great in both games, with 13 and 12 points. It wasn’t just the number of points he scored, it was how and when he scored them. In both games, he scored important baskets to either stop an opponent’s run, or to start an important Michigan run. All of his baskets were big, and he hit a nice combination of 3-pointers and emphatic dunks. To top it all off, he shot a very nice percentage in both games: 5-for-6 overall (3-for-3 from 3-point range) vs. Iowa, and 5-for-7 overall (2-for-3 from 3-point range) vs. Illinois.

Most of the other starters each had one good game and one so-so game. Robinson had 5 points vs. Iowa, but came back for 13 points vs. Illinois. Wagner had 4 points vs. Iowa, and looked rusty again, but scored 14 points vs. Illinois, and finally looked a little like his old self.

Simpson had 15 off the bench vs. Iowa, but only had 5 points as a starter vs. Illinois.

Jordan Poole came off the bench in both games, and had one so-so game (3 points vs. Iowa) and one good game (11 points vs. Illinois). He and Livers sparked a nice UM comeback late in the 1^st half of the Illinois game.

Jon Teske played in both games, and scored 6 and 0 points. He wasn’t much of a factor on offense, but he did play good defense, and he grabbed some important rebounds. He also gave Wagner a rest every now and then.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Brooks was the only starter (vs. Iowa) who didn’t have a very good week. He played 8 minutes vs. Iowa, and 4 minutes vs. Illinois, and failed to score. Simpson has definitely passed him, for now.

Jaaron Simmons played 4 minutes in the Illinois game, and scored 1 point. He didn’t play vs. Iowa. He continues to slide down the bench.

Who Else Played

Ibi Watson played in both games, and failed to score.

Who Didn’t Play

Austin Davis and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) all failed to get into either game.

The Big Picture

These were two important wins for Michigan. UM has to win as many of the games against the unranked Big Ten teams as they can, because the games against the ranked teams are coming right up. Michigan State and Purdue look like the two teams to beat in the Big Ten this season, so Michigan is playing for 3^rd place.

Predicted Win Total

Michigan won a “Should Win” game and a “Toss Up” game, and they’ve won enough “Toss Up” games to move the Predicted Win Total up one game.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 19

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays two games, both in the Big Ten. On Tuesday (01/09/2018, 9:00 p.m., ESPN), Michigan plays (#13) Purdue in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (01/13/2018, 12:00 p.m., FOX), they play at (#1) Michigan State.

Purdue is currently 15-2 (4-0 in the Big Ten), with a couple impressive wins (Arizona and Louisville) and a couple less-than-impressive losses (Tennessee and Western Kentucky, both on a neutral floor). Their 4 Big Ten wins aren’t very exciting (at Maryland, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Nebraska), but they’ve won handily. They still have their incredibly tall center (Isaac Haas, 7’2″) and an even taller freshman with a similar name (Matt Haarms, 7’3″). Teske is going to be busy. Michigan can beat Purdue, but they’ll need to play their best game so far this season to do it.

Ah, our old friends, Michigan State. We only play them once this season, in East Lansing, and that’s probably a good thing. They are loaded this season, and could really stomp on UM if things get out of hand. They are currently 15-2 (3-1 in the Big Ten), with one understandable loss, to (#2) Duke on a neutral court, and one surprising loss, at unranked Ohio State. They’ve beaten a couple very good teams already this season (North Carolina and Notre Dame), and they’ve won their Big Ten games handily, other than OSU. Michigan stands very little chance in this game, and keeping it close late in the 2^nd half would be a moral victory.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!