Category: Featured

Quick Look

The (#24) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they won both of them. On Monday (01/29/2018), they beat Northwestern 58-47 in Crisler Arena, then on Saturday (02/03/2018), they beat Minnesota 76-73 (in overtime) in Crisler Arena. The two wins raise Michigan’s record to 19-6 (8-4 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

These were two of the ugliest wins of the season for Michigan. Both Northwestern and Minnesota are going to finish in the bottom half of the Big Ten standings, and both games were at home with a decent amount of rest. In both games, Michigan started out shooting terribly, and had to claw their way back into the games. They managed to avoid the upset, twice, but slow starts like that are very dangerous in a lose-and-go-home environment like the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments.

So, how bad were the beginnings of both games? Really bad. Against Northwestern, Michigan immediately fell behind 4-0 in the first 90 seconds, pulled within one point (4-3), fell behind by 4 again (7-3), pulled back within 2 points (7-5), then went for almost 6 minutes without a point. With 9:15 left in the first half, they still only had 5 points, in 10:45 of “action”. During that almost 6 minute scoreless stretch, they missed 5 shots (4 of them 3-point attempts) and had 2 turnovers. Fortunately, Northwestern also went cold at the same time, and only led by 9 points (14-5). At that point Michigan finally woke up, and ended the half on a 16-5 run to lead 21-19 at the break. UM opened the 2^nd half with some decent offense, and pushed their lead up to 8 points (32-24) with 16:21 to go. They went cold again, and let Northwestern back into the game with a 6-0 run, to make it just a 2-point UM lead (32-30) with 14:33 to go. UM pushed the lead back up to 7 points (39-32 at the 11:34 mark), let it slip back to 3 points (41-38 with 10:12 left), then pushed up to 10 points (48-38 with 5:24 to go). Once they got the lead up to double digits, they never let it slip below 7 points (52-45 at the 2:58 mark), and won by 11 points. Michigan never trailed in the 2^nd half, but they also never really put Northwestern away. They just kept the lead in the 8-10 point range for the last 5 minutes and ran out the clock.

The start of the Minnesota game was almost as bad as the Northwestern game. With 15:53 to go in the 1^st half, Michigan was down 8-2, shooting 1-for-6. They trailed the entire 1^st half, but they never let Minnesota get more than 6 points ahead. They were only down 2 points (34-32) at halftime, and they finally got their first lead (38-37) with 16:15 to go. It didn’t last long, and Minnesota used a 13-2 run to go up by 10 points (50-40) with 11:15 left in the game. Michigan inched closer, but Minnesota was still up by 7 points (56-49) at the 6:34 mark. Michigan went on an 8-0 run to take the lead again (57-56) with 3:13 to go, and it looked like they had enough of a lead (63-58) with 0:28 to go, when the lousy Big Ten refs took over. Michigan got the ball in cleanly, and while the Minnesota players were chopping away at the Michigan player, trying to commit an intentional foul, the refs called traveling! It was easily the worst call I’ve seen this season, and it gave Minnesota a chance to try a long 3-pointer to tie the game, which they did. Overtime was just as tense, but Michigan led most of the time, and scored the game-winning “and-one” basket with 0:04 to go.

It seems weird to say this about a losing opponent, but Minnesota has got to be the luckiest team I’ve seen in years. They hit very low percentage shots time after time in this game: spinning, out-of-control, just-throw-it-up prayers that banked in off the glass or spun around the rim 3-4 times before dropping. Michigan played pretty good defense, and forced Minnesota into long, contested, low-percentage 2-point shots, just as they hoped to, but Minnesota kept hitting them. Overall, Minnesota had exactly the same shooting percentage as Michigan (28-for-63 = 44.4%), but they hit about 80% of their “circus shots”.

Stats

The stats for the Northwestern game are miserable. Michigan shot poorly overall (21-for-50 = 42.0%), they shot 3-pointers very poorly (7-for-25 = 28.0%), and they shot free throws decently (9-for-14 = 64.3%). They were out-rebounded by Northwestern (34-28), but made up for it in the turnover battle (5-16). That’s how Michigan won the game: forcing Northwestern turnovers.

The stats for the Minnesota game are even worse than the Northwestern stats. Michigan shot a little better overall (28-for-63 = 44.4%), but they shot 3-pointers terribly (8-for-32 = 25.0%), and they shot free throws like they were blindfolded (12-for-28 = 42.9%). They did win the rebounding battle (43-36), and they tied in the turnover department (6-6). They should have lost this game with free throw shooting like that, but all those extra rebounds saved them.

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner.

MAAR was the hero of the Minnesota game, hitting the game-winning basket (and one) with 0:04 left, and he had double figures in both games (11 and 17). He was Michigan’s high scorer in the Minnesota game.

Matthews was the only other player to hit double figures in both games (14 and 13). He was Michigan’s high scorer in the Northwestern game, and he had 11 rebounds in the Minnesota game, for a double-double.

Wagner almost hit double figures in both games (8 and 16), and he had 10 rebounds vs. Minnesota for another double-double. He might have shot a few too many 3-pointers vs. Minnesota (3-for-9), but he’s a streak shooter, so he needs to keep shooting.

Duncan Robinson also almost hit double figures in both games (8 and 10). He had a rough time shooting 3-pointers (0-for-6 and 1-for-3), but he was 3-for-3 and 2-for-3 shooting 2-pointers. He was also the only Michigan player who didn’t miss a free throw (1-for-1) vs. Minnesota.

Simpson had a mediocre game vs. Northwestern (4 points), but a much better game vs. Minnesota (15 points). He had a terrible time shooting 3-pointers in the Minnesota game (1-for-8), but that one that he made was huge.

Jordan Poole came out firing in both games, with mixed results. He was 3-for-10 (2-for-6 from 3-point range) for 8 points vs. Northwestern, then 0-for-4 (all from 3-point range) for 0 points vs. Minnesota. It’s a shame he laid an egg in the Minnesota game, since the Maize Rage showed up in beachwear for a “Poole Party”. He tried, and he played hard, but he just couldn’t get anything going.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Livers had a quiet week: 3 and 5 points.

Jon Teske also had a quiet week: 2 and 0 points.

Eli Brooks played in both games, but didn’t take a shot in either, at least officially. He did put up a layup in the Minnesota game, but Teske interfered with it so it didn’t count.

Who Else Played

No one else played.

Who Didn’t Play

Just when it looked like Jaaron Simmons was established as the backup point guard, Coach Beilein switched back to Brooks. Simmons didn’t play at all this week.

Austin Davis, Ibi Watson, and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) didn’t get into either game.

The Big Picture

Sure, Michigan won two more games, but it was very worrisome the way they did it. These were teams that Michigan should have dominated and beaten easily, but they didn’t. Four of Michigan’s last six games are on the road, and if they play like they did last week, they could easily lose all four of them. The slow starts have to go. So does the lousy free-throw shooting. Robinson has to start hitting 3-pointers again. If Michigan can get back to the form they showed when they beat Michigan State (in East Lansing!), they can beat everyone remaining on their schedule.

Predicted Win Total

Both games last week were “toss up” games, and Michigan won both of them, so I’m going to move the Predicted Win Total up one game. Wait, they’ve already won 19 games, and they’ve got 6 games left. Am I saying that they’re going to go 2-4 down the stretch? Yeah, I guess so, since four of those games are on the road.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 21

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

Michigan plays 2 games this week, both on the road. On Tuesday (02/06/2018, 7:00 p.m. EST, BTN), Michigan plays at Northwestern, then on Sunday (02/11/2018, 1:00 p.m. EST, CBS), they play at Wisconsin.

Didn’t we just play Northwestern? Yup, and we beat them, but not very convincingly. They won their next game (at Wisconsin), so they’re now 14-10 (5-6 in the Big Ten). Michigan can win in Evanston, but they have to clean up some of their bad habits: slow starts and poor free-throw shooting.

Wisconsin is currently 10-15 (3-9 in the Big Ten), with no impressive wins, and no embarrassing losses. They are WAY down from the last few years, but they are still dangerous. The Kohl Center has been a House of Horrors for Michigan recently, which is why I listed this game as a “Should Lose” game before the season. Considering who they have already lost to at home (Ohio State [83-58], Nebraska, and Northwestern), they are no longer unbeatable at home. Michigan stands a decent chance, if they can play a solid game.

Remember that stretch where Michigan played 4 games in 8 days? Well, it’s Wisconsin’s turn to do something like that. They play 4 games in 10 days. They already lost to Northwestern at home last Thursday (02/01/2018) and lost to Maryland on the road last Sunday (02/04/2018), then they play at Illinois on Thursday (02/08/2018) before playing Michigan at home on Sunday (02/11/2018). They should be good and tired when they play Michigan.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The (#25) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one game last week, and they lost it. On Thursday (01/25/2018), they lost at (#3) Purdue 92-88. The loss lowers Michigan’s record to 17-6 (6-4 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

This one was a shootout, and Purdue had more offensive firepower than Michigan. It was like a videogame (NCAA Jam 2K18?), with lots of 3-pointers and monster dunks, and not a lot of defense. Purdue led for most of the 1^st half, including halftime (41-36). The lead changed hands a lot in the 2^nd half, until Purdue went ahead for good at the 8:35 mark. Michigan hung around, and the Purdue lead was only 3 points (85-82) with 0:31 to go, but that was as close as UM could get.

Stats

The stats for the game are amazing. Michigan shot very well overall (35-for-58 = 60.3%), they shot 3-pointers very well (13-for-23 = 56.5%), but they didn’t shoot free throws very well (5-for-9 = 55.6%). They (surprisingly) won the rebounding battle (25-21), but lost the turnover battle (11-10). Purdue won the game at the free throw line: they got there often, and made their free throws (19-for-23 = 82.6%).

Who Looked Good

The starters were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner. Four of them hit double figures (all but Livers). MAAR was Michigan’s high scorer with 26 points, Simpson had 16, Wagner had 15, and Matthews had 10.

Jon Teske did his best trying to slow down Purdue’s twin monsters (7’2″ and 7’3″), and he even scored 8 points along the way.

Jordan Poole and Duncan Robinson each had 5 points.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Livers only scored 3 points. He played decent defense.

Jaaron Simmons played for 3 minutes and didn’t attempt a shot.

Who Else Played

No one else played.

Who Didn’t Play

Eli Brooks, Austin Davis, Ibi Watson, and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) didn’t get into the game.

The Big Picture

This was a game that Michigan stood very little chance of winning, but they gave it a good shot. Those kind of shooting numbers will win most games, even on the road, but Purdue is red-hot right now. There’s no need to be upset, disappointed, or worried about this result.

Predicted Win Total

The Purdue game was a “Should Lose” game, and Michigan lost it. No change to the Predicted Win Total.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 20

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

After playing three games 2 weeks ago, and only one game last week, this week Michigan is back to their regular schedule of playing 2 games. On Monday (01/29/2018, 7:00 p.m., FS1), Michigan plays Northwestern, then on Saturday (02/03/2018, 2:30 p.m., FOX), they play Minnesota. Both games are in Crisler Arena.

Northwestern is currently 13-9 (4-5 in the Big Ten), with no impressive wins, and no embarrassing losses. They have really underperformed so far this season. A lot was expected of them. Michigan should be able to beat them, but they’ll have to play a solid game. No coasting.

Minnesota is currently 14-9 (3-7 in the Big Ten), with no impressive wins, and no embarrassing losses. They have also really underperformed so far this season, including 2 losses to Northwestern. Just like the Northwestern game, Michigan should be able to beat them, but they have to play well.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Quick Look

The (#23) University of Michigan men’s basketball team played three games last week, and they won two and lost one. On Monday (01/15/2018), they beat Maryland 68-67 in Crisler Arena, on Thursday (01/18/2018), they lost at Nebraska 72-52, then on Sunday (01/21/2018), they beat Rutgers 62-47 in Crisler Arena. The two wins and one loss leave Michigan with a record of 17-5 (6-3 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

Wait, what made this a “brutal week”? Winning 2 out of 3 is pretty good, right? It’s tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, right? Well, yes, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad, and it is tough to win on the road in the Big Ten, but it was the way Michigan played this week that made it “brutal”. Combined with the (glorious) win over Michigan State last Saturday (01/13/2018), Michigan played 4 games in 8 days, 2 of them on the road, and they showed it. They played with “tired legs” and a distinct lack of crispness. They made way too many physical and mental errors that they hadn’t made in weeks. They should have beaten Maryland by 20 – 25 points, not one point. They should have battled Nebraska to the final possession, with a 50-50 chance to win it at the end, not lose by 20. They never should have fallen behind Rutgers by 6 points (8-2) with 6 minutes gone in the game. They were just off all week, and they were lucky to win 2 out of 3 games.

The Maryland game was very frustrating. After the huge win at MSU just 2 days before, the crowd was just waiting for a reason to cheer, and the team refused to give it to them. Turnovers. Missed layups. Bricked wide-open 3-pointers. Dumb fouls. The first 27 minutes were miserable. Maryland led for the entire 1^st half, by as many as 14 points, and for the first 7 minutes of the 2^nd half. Michigan got their first lead (42-41) with 13:02 left in the game, then gave it away again (47-46) with 10:40 to go. They got it back again (49-47) 13 seconds later, and led the rest of the game, until the final seconds. In the part of the game where Michigan caught up to Maryland, Michigan hit five 3-pointers in a row in about 2 minutes. That finally gave the crowd something to cheer about. Things were looking pretty solid, with Michigan leading by 5 (66-61) with only 25 seconds left, but Maryland hit two 3-pointers, and Michigan missed a pair of free throws, and suddenly Maryland led by one point (67-66) with only 3.5 seconds left. Fortunately, Maryland fouled Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman as he drove to the basket with 1.2 seconds left, and he hit both free throws to win the game. It was very exciting, but it shouldn’t have been. Michigan should have won this game easily, not by one point in the last second.

The Nebraska game was horrible, just horrible. Michigan made way too many mistakes, and handed the game to Nebraska. With 13:51 to go in the 1^st half, UM hit a 3-pointer to get their last lead, 12-10. They missed a shot, committed 2 turnovers, and made another basket. At that point (11:10 left in the 1^st half), they were only down 4 points (16-12). They then proceeded to miss 8 shots in a row, and commit 3 more turnovers. The next time they scored was a pair of free throws with 5:05 left, to pull within 8 points (24-16). They finally made a basket with 3:43 to go, which got them within 9 points (28-19), and they limped into halftime down 11 points (32-21). The big turning point in the game came early in the 2^nd half. Michigan hit a basket to pull within 8 points (35-27) with 17:43 to go. Nebraska shot and missed, and Charles Matthews got the rebound cleanly. He stood there for a couple seconds, deciding who to pass it to, then he threw it right to a Nebraska player. The Nebraska player didn’t do anything sneaky to steal the ball, Matthews threw it right to him. To make things even worse, he just stood there and watched as the Nebraska player ran past him for an uncontested layup. He just froze. That was the game right there. Michigan never got any closer than 12 points, and Nebraska kept the lead in the 16-18 point range for most of the rest of the game. It was the worst game Michigan has played in a while.

At least the Rutgers game was a solid win. It wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t as easy as the final score would suggest, but it was a solid win. In the early going, both teams had trouble scoring, with Rutgers leading 8-2 with 14:02 left in the 1^st half. Yes, Michigan had scored 2 points in the first 6 minutes of the game. They made their first shot, then missed 9 shots in a row. They missed layups, short jumpers, and open 3-pointers. They got the shots they wanted, they just couldn’t get them to fall. Michigan finally got the lead back (13-10) with 10:35 to go, and they never trailed again. They led by 6 at halftime (27-21), and finally got a double-digit lead (37-27) at the 15:34 mark. They never let the lead get below 7 points, and kept it in the 12-14 point range for most of the rest of the game.

Stats

The stats for the Maryland game are not very impressive. Michigan shot pretty poorly overall (25-for-61 = 41.0%), they shot 3-pointers pretty well (11-for-26 = 42.3%), and they shot free throws pretty poorly (7-for-12 = 58.3%). They lost the rebounding battle (36-30), but they won the turnover battle (6-12). The 3-point shooting is what won the game for Michigan.

The stats for the Nebraska game are embarrassing. Michigan shot terribly overall (21-for-56 = 37.5%), they shot even more terribly from 3-point range (4-for-18 = 22.2%), and they shot free throws pretty poorly (6-for-10 = 60.0%). They won the rebounding battle (32-29), but they lost the turnover battle (12-9). Poor shooting and turnovers – not a good combination.

The stats for the Rutgers game are mediocre. Michigan shot poorly overall (23-for-54 = 42.6%), they shot 3-pointers poorly (8-for-25 = 32.0%), and they shot free throws pretty well (8-for-11 = 72.7%). They tied in the rebounding battle (33-33), and they won the turnover battle (9-13). Michigan won this game with defense, not offense. They held Rutgers to even worse shooting (17-for-51 = 33.3% overall, 2-for-9 = 22.2% from 3-point range).

Who Looked Good

The starters this week were Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Isaiah Livers, Charles Matthews, Zavier Simpson, and Moritz Wagner.

No one had a great week this week. A few players had 2 good games, but no one had 3 good games. Wagner had 18 points (and 11 rebounds, for another double-double) vs. Maryland, and 16 points vs. Rutgers, but he only had 2 points (on 1-for-5 shooting) vs. Nebraska.

Similarly, Matthews had 15 points vs. Nebraska (the only Michigan player in double figures), and 10 points vs. Rutgers, but only 7 points vs. Maryland.

The only other players with double figures this week were Simpson (5, 3, and 10), Jordan Poole (11, 5, and 4), and Duncan Robinson (6, 0, and 12).

MAAR got close to double figures (7, 9, and 6), and he did hit the 2 clutch free throws to win the Maryland game.

Livers also got close to double figures in 2 games (7 and 8 points), then laid an egg (0 points) vs. Rutgers. Once again, he played good, solid defense.

As usual, Jon Teske didn’t score much (5, 2, and 2), but he did play good defense, and he grabbed some important rebounds. He also gave Wagner a rest every now and then.

Jaaron Simmons is now the backup point guard, and he did a decent job spelling Simpson with 2, 4, and 2 points.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Eli Brooks played in the Maryland and Nebraska games, and failed to score. He didn’t even get into the Rutgers game. He is now the 3^rd point guard, behind Simpson and Simmons.

Who Else Played

Ibi Watson didn’t play in the Maryland game, but he did get into the Nebraska and Rutgers games. He scored 4 points vs. Nebraska, and 0 vs. Rutgers.

Who Didn’t Play

Austin Davis and the practice squad players (C.J. Baird, Brent Hibbitts, Naji Ozeir, Rico Ozuna-Harrison, and Luke Wilson) all failed to get into any of the games this week.

The Big Picture

Michigan doesn’t know how to handle prosperity. They finally got ranked last week, and they came out and played 3 lousy games, even though they won 2 of them. In close games, they work hard to get a defensive stop at a key moment, then throw the ball away. They don’t seem to understand the importance of momentum, both in an individual game and in the season as a whole. I don’t think they’re intentionally throwing the ball away or trying to lose key games, but I don’t think they understand how a key play can change the entire complexion of a game, and how a key win can turn around a whole season. It’s very frustrating to watch them play hard, have things under control, then just throw it all away with a dumb turnover or a missed easy layup.

So, Michigan survived their “hell week” (4 games in 8 days) with a 3-1 record, including their signature win against MSU. They probably don’t stand a chance of catching Purdue or Ohio State, but they could still finish as high as 3^rd place in the Big Ten, if they can get back to the level of play they had vs. Purdue and MSU 2 weeks ago.

Predicted Win Total

I had the Nebraska game as a “Should Win” game, even though it was on the road. Michigan had never lost to Nebraska, and they crushed Nebraska 93-57 last year in Lincoln, so I figured they should win again this year. Wrong. I had the Rutgers game as a “Should Win”, and the Maryland game as a “Toss Up”. At the halfway point in the Big Ten season, here’s what’s left on Michigan’s schedule:

• Should Win (1) – Penn State.
  
• Should Lose (3) – Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland.
  
• Toss Up (5) – Iowa, Northwestern (both), Minnesota, Ohio State.
  

At 17-5 (6-3), if Michigan wins the game they should win, loses the games they seem destined to lose, and goes 3-2 in the “Toss Up” games, that would give them a record of 21-10 (10-8). I’m going to leave the Predicted Win Total right where it is.

This week’s Predicted Win Total is: 20

Here’s a chart of the Predicted Win Totals for each week:

What’s Next

After playing three games last week, this week Michigan only plays one game. On Thursday (01/25/2018, 7:00 p.m., ESPN), Michigan plays at (#3) Purdue.

Michigan just played Purdue in Crisler Arena 2 weeks ago, and they lost by one point on a questionable out-of-bounds call in the final seconds. It’s going to be a lot harder to stay with Purdue in their house. They are currently 19-2 (8-0 in the Big Ten), and riding a 14-game win streak. On the one hand, if Michigan plays like they have since the MSU game, they’ll get blown off the court. On the other hand, if they play like they did at MSU, they can beat Purdue, even on the road.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!