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By the Numbers: Game 5 @ Wisconsin

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LAST WEEK RECAP

Michigan survived a scare from Rutgers for the second season in a row.  This time the Scarlet Knights were the team coming back from a 17-point deficit, but the Wolverines made the stops they needed to hold on 20-13.

NEXT UP: @ Wisconsin: 11th, 16.9

PREGAME SP+: U-M by 1.0, Michigan Win Probability 52%

Only 3 spots separate Michigan and Wisconsin in the SP+ rankings, despite the Wolverines’ (4-0) and Badgers’ (1-2) vastly different records.   Wisconsin’s two losses have come to SP+ #5 Penn State and #22 Notre Dame. 

Michigan Offense (17th) vs. Wisconsin Defense (4th) 

One primary reason I ground my expectations in analytics involves avoiding recency bias.  Even though Michigan’s offense had been a juggernaut for 6 out of 8 quarters this season, the last 2 quarters against Rutgers are fresh in the minds of all Michigan fans.  Although the rushing attack sputtered, and the passing game could not find their rhythm last Saturday, the Wolverines still sit at #17 in SP+ offense rankings.  That’s 1 spot in front of Penn State, and 22 spots ahead of Notre Dame.

On the flip side Wisconsin has an elite defensive unit, especially against the run.  I don’t expect to see the Badgers surrender a large number of scoring chances.  That means we’ll keep an eye on IsoPPP to measure how explosive Michigan can be when they do find successful plays. 

Points per Scoring Opportunity also shines as a critical metric for this game .  When the offense penetrates the Wisconsin 40-yard line, they will need to score touchdowns rather than settling for field goal attempts.

Michigan Defense (8th) vs. Wisconsin Offense (50th)

We can reasonably say that Mike MacDonald’s defensive unit saved Michigan’s victory over Rutgers.  When SP+ ranked the Wolverines’ defense #10 in the preseason, I mentioned that I thought that was inflated.  Through 4 weeks, Michigan has not only validated that initial ranking, but continued to climb as preseason expectations are removed from the SP+ model. 

In this week’s matchup with the Badgers, the Michigan defense represents the largest unit-versus-unit advantage for the Wolverines.  If the defense can create havoc and negative plays early in this game, they may be able to help subdue the crowd’s energy.  The Badgers’ fan base is starving for some positivity during their rocky start to the 2021 season.  Aidan Hutchinson, Dax Hill, and Josh Ross need to implant doubt & negative vibes into the Camp Randall crowd as early as possible.

PREDICTION: The range of possible outcomes for this game extends to both ends of the spectrum.  It could be a nail-biter for the duration.  However, the conditions feel right for either team to play poorly and get boat-raced off the field. 

The early season narrative for the Badgers starts with QB Graham Mertz struggling and turning the ball over.  Michigan continues to protect the ball very well to this point of the season.  If the turnover margin continues on that trend, then we could be celebrating a huge road victory from Madison. 

I expect both teams to play conservatively to limit the big momentum swings.  I can’t yet bring myself to predict a fast start and a complete 60-minute performance from Michigan on the road.  I still need to see a sharp game plan from each coordinator, and the leaders on the field consistently execute at a high level.
Michigan 17 Wisconsin 20 (PRESEASON Michigan 24 Wisconsin 30)

MICHIGAN RESUME UPDATE (9/26/21), 4-0

  • SP+ Overall: 8th (↓2), 20.4
  • SP+ Offense: 17th (↓4), 35.8
  • SP+ Defense: 8th (same), 15.8
  • SP+ Special Teams: 9th (↓7), 0.3

AP Poll: 14th (↑5), 677

Coaches’ Poll: 14th (↑5), 674

CFP Rank: N/A

U-M Resume after Game #4
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2021 Michigan Football — Playbook — Cade McNamara’s pass to Cornelius Johnson

Let’s break down Cornelius Johnson’s 10 yard reception from Cade McNamara in the 1st quarter versus Rutgers.

The Wolverines line up with four receivers in a diamond formation which overloads the right side of the field.

Pre-snap, the first thing to notice is that RB Blake Corum is in the slot of the diamond and unaccounted for.

Michigan snaps the ball, the front three players of the diamond engage the defenders opening a gap on the defense while Blake Corum retreats for a potential pass.

Michigan QB Cade McNamara passes the ball to wide receiver #6 Cornelius Johnson and on the slant pattern, who makes the 10 yard reception and converts to first down.

But Michigan had multiple options out of this alignment. If the Rutgers safety had cheated up to take away the slant route, McNamara could have stepped up in pocket and ran the ball, taking advantage of the blocking provided by this offensive line.

He also could have passed the ball to Blake Corum who would who has three teammates blocking for him. Another variation would be for Corum to take a lateral from McNamara and throw a pass downfield.

Look for the Wolverines to use this formation later in the season.

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Michigan 20 Rutgers 13 – Game 4 Recap

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GAME 4 PROJECTION vs. RESULTS

Final Score: 20-13, Michigan by 7 over Rutgers
SP+ Projection: Michigan by 21.2 (-14.2)
CD Projection: Michigan by 29 (-22)

FIVE FACTORS

GAME 4 RECAP vs. Rutgers

For the fan base, this game was a teeth-clenched, white-knuckled grinder. The offense did not look sharp on the ground, or through the air. The defense gave up a lot of yardage, and even the kicker and punter seemed off.

But, for the team and for the coaches, this game should be extremely valuable. There is now ample film to analyze and strengthen the team’s weaknesses during this week of practice. The game planning didn’t start especially bad, but there are also major questions about getting out-maneuvered during the half time adjustment period.

Offensively, the linemen up front have to digest this game to understand how Rutgers was able muck up the middle. Michigan’s 17% success rate in the 3rd quarter was followed by an abysmal 15% success rate in the 4th. Blake Corum wasn’t able to get loose in this game, but finished as the leading rusher with 68 yards on 21 carries (3.2 ypc). Cade McNamara was 9 of 16 passing for 163 yards, but seemed a bit off target again. Before the half, McNamara missed an open receiver in the end zone on 2nd down, and Michigan settled for a short field goal. In retrospect, that may have been a pivotal moment.

On defense, the Wolverines were worn down more than we would have predicted by the Rutgers ground game. The Scarlet Knights rolled up 196 yards rushing (4.7 ypc). Three young linebackers should find this film invaluable. Nikhai Hill-Green, Junior Colson and Kalel Mullings answered the call to duty when an injury kept senior caption Josh Ross sidelined. Rutgers had a specific scheme to slow down Aidan Hutchinson, and challenged the rest of the Wolverines to step up. In the biggest moment of the game, David Ojabo was able to answer the bell, stripping QB Noah Vedral, and Colson recovered the fumble to seal the victory.

I don’t know how valuable film study will be for the two specialists, but they will both get back to work to sharpen their execution also. Kicker Jake Moody was 2 for 3 after narrowly missing a 47-yarder wide right in the 4th quarter. Brad Robbins averaged 40.8 yards per punt, but shanked a 32-yard punt when everyone expected him to pin the Knights deep. Rutgers was able to contain Blake Corum on kick returns, but AJ Henning flashed again in the 3rd quarter punt return for 29 yards. It feels like just a matter of time before Henning hits pay dirt. Onward!

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