Nothing But ‘Net – Week #14 – 01/30/2017 – Another Week, Another Split

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they won one and lost the other. On Thursday (01/26/2017), Michigan beat Indiana 90-60 in Crisler Arena, then on Sunday (01/29/2017), they lost at Michigan State 70-62. The win and the loss

leave Michigan with a record of 14-8 (4-5 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

This is the 5th week in a row where Michigan has won one game and lost the other, but this week included a huge win and a rivalry loss. Look at that score again from the IU game: 90-60. The game wasn’t even that close. Unfortunately, Michigan couldn’t keep the momentum from the IU game going vs. MSU. When UM is hitting their 3-pointers, everything else falls into place, and they look great. When they are cold from 3-point range, everything else falls apart, and they look terrible. That’s what happened this week.

Michigan started hot vs. IU, and never cooled off. The won both halves by 15 points (50-35 and 40-25), and they never let IU even get close for the entire 2nd half. It was very impressive.

On the other hand, Michigan never got hot vs. MSU, and the game was close most of the time. Michigan actually led by one point (40-39) with 14:53 to go in the 2nd half, before MSU went on a 12-2 run to give them a lead they never gave up. Even though they were playing from behind for most of the 2nd half, UM stayed close, and actually got within 4 points (66-62) in the final minute, but could get no closer.

Let’s look at the stats. In the IU game, Michigan shot very well overall (31-for-49 = 63.3%), they shot 3-pointers very well (11-for-20 = 55.0%), and they shot free throws well enough (17-for-24 = 70.8%). They won the rebounding battle (23-20) and the turnover battle (6-16). It was total domination.

The stats for the MSU game aren’t nearly as pretty. Michigan shot very poorly overall (19-for-56 = 33.9%), they shot 3-pointers terribly (7-for-26 = 26.9%), but they did shoot free throws well (17-for-19 = 89.5%). Michigan actually won the rebounding battle, barely (33-32), but they uncharacteristically lost the turnover battle (13-11). All those turnovers, combined with anemic 3-point shooting, cost Michigan the game.

Who Looked Good

Michigan had 6 players, including all 5 starters, in double figures for the IU game, but only 2 players in double figures for the MSU game.

Derrick Walton Jr. was Michigan’s leading scorer in both games, with 21 and 24 points. He hit 14 of 15 free throws vs. MSU, and almost had a double-double, with 9 rebounds (3 offensive). He had a great week.

Moritz Wagner was the only other Michigan player to hit double figures in both games, with 14 and 10. On the downside, he had 4 fouls and 4 bad turnovers vs. MSU.

DJ Wilson had a solid game against IU, with 11 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 blocked shots, but he had a tougher time against MSU, with only 8 points.

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman had 12 points vs. IU, including 3-for-3 from 3-point range, and he played great defense. He had a quiet game (5 points) vs. MSU, and had a tougher time on defense.

Duncan Robinson had 13 and 8 points, and did a decent job on defense for a change.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Zak Irvin may have had 12 points vs. IU, but he almost single-handedly cost Michigan the MSU game, with 0 points on 0-for-8 shooting. He also had 3 turnovers vs. MSU. Ugh.

Mark Donnal had a quiet week, with 3 and 7 points.

Xavier Simpson played in both games, and scored 2 points (on free throws) vs. IU. He was scoreless vs. MSU. When he’s out there, Michigan is essentially playing 4-on-5 on offense, since he refuses to shoot.

Who Else Played

Jon Teske played in both games, but failed to score.

Ibi Watson played in both games, and scored 2 points (on free throws) vs. IU. He was scoreless vs. MSU. He still looks lost out there.

Fred Wright-Jones played in the MSU game, but failed to score.

Brent Hibbitts played in the IU game, but failed to score.

Sean Lonergan played in the IU game, but failed to score.

Who Didn’t Play

Everyone played in at least one of the games this week.

The Big Picture

Michigan is still “on the bubble” for an NCAA Tournament bid. They need to win 6 of their remaining 9 Big Ten games to stand a decent chance. They need to do better than a split every week.

What’s Next

This week Michigan only plays one game, at home. On Saturday (02/04/2017, 6:00 p.m., ESPN2), Michigan plays Ohio State in Crisler Arena. This is another “toss up” game.

OSU is currently 13-9 overall, 3-6 in the Big Ten. They did beat MSU in Columbus, but they have also lost to Florida Atlantic. The rest of their wins and losses are all predictable.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Nothing But ‘Net – Week #13 – 01/23/2017 – Looking Better

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they lost one and won the other. On Tuesday (01/17/2017), Michigan lost at (#17) Wisconsin 68-64, then on Saturday (01/21/2017), they beat Illinois 66-57 in Crisler Arena. The loss and the win leave Michigan with a record of 13-7 (3-4 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

This is the 4th week in a row where Michigan has won one game and lost the other, but this week felt different. For the first time since the 2K Classic in November, Michigan played both games, all 40 minutes in each game, with fire and passion. That’s what’s been missing for the last couple months: recently, the team has gone down quietly. It’s one thing to show good sportsmanship and not react poorly to losses, but Michigan acted like they didn’t care that they lost. This last week, they played like they wanted to win.

Sure, Michigan lost at Wisconsin, and a loss is a loss, but this loss was a moral victory. On paper, it looked like a game where Michigan would get crushed, with Wisconsin’s rugged forecourt and Michigan’s porous interior defense, but that’s not how it played out. Michigan wasn’t great on defense, but they were a LOT better, and they stayed with Wisconsin for the whole game. The 1st half was close and low-scoring, with Wisconsin leading by 3-5 points most of the time. They led by 5 (26-21) at halftime. Michigan opened the 2nd half with an 11-2 run, to take a 4 point lead (32-28). They extended the lead to 8 (38-30) with 12:40 left in the game, and still led by 6 (49-43) with 6:29 to go. That’s where the roof fell in. Wisconsin went on a 15-0 run to go up by 9 (58-49) with 2:27 left, and Michigan couldn’t catch back up. It was a shame to get so close to a huge upset, only to see it snatched away in the last few minutes, but that’s the way the game goes sometimes.

The Illinois game was a revenge game, after the way Illinois embarrassed Michigan 10 days before in Champaign. Michigan returned the favor by leading for almost the entire game, except for 6-4 in the opening minutes, and pushing the lead as high as 21 points (60-39) with 5:57 to go. Michigan traded points for time the rest of the way, which let Illinois get the score looking more respectable, but the outcome was never in doubt. Michigan outplayed Illinois, especially on defense.

The stats for the Wisconsin game are actually pretty reasonable. Michigan didn’t shoot very well overall (22-for-51 = 43.1%), but they shot 3-pointers very well (10-for-21 = 47.6%). They shot free throws very well also (10-for-11 = 90.9%), they tied in rebounds (32-32), but lost the turnover battle (10-8). The difference in the game was that Wisconsin got to the free throw line a lot more, even if they shot poorly there (14-for-24 = 58.3%). Those 4 extra made free throws were exactly the difference in a 4-point loss.

The stats for the Illinois game are not as good as the Wisconsin stats, even though Michigan beat Illinois and lost to Wisconsin. In the Illinois game, Michigan shot just OK overall (23-for-51 = 45.1%), they shot 3-pointers pretty poorly (6-for-21 = 28.6%), and they shot free throws pretty poorly (14-for-22 = 63.6%). They won the rebounding battle (30-27) and the turnover battle (14-17). They won the game by holding Illinois to 2-for-12 (16.7%) shooting from 3-point range.

Who Looked Good

This week, in both games, 3 of the 5 starters hit double figures.

Derrick Walton Jr. hit double figures in both games (15 and 13 points), and he pulled down 11 rebounds in the Illinois game for a double-double.

Zak Irvin also hit double figures in both games (20 and 15). He wasn’t very efficient, but he did score some points.

Moritz Wagner almost had double figures in both games, with 10 and 8 points. He did a much better job on defense against Illinois this time than he did in the first Illinois game.

DJ Wilson was the star of the Illinois game, with 19 points (on 7-for-10 shooting) and 7 rebounds (6 offensive). Unfortunately, he had 0 points vs. Wisconsin. Coincidentally, he was the star of the first Illinois game, when he also scored 19 points.

Duncan Robinson isn’t a starter, but he was the only other Michigan player to hit double figures in one game this week, with 11 vs. Wisconsin. He had 5 points vs. Illinois.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman was the only starter to not hit double figures in either game this week, with 8 and 4 points.

Mark Donnal had a quiet week, with 0 and 2 points. He also had 4 fouls in only 9 minutes vs. Illinois.

Xavier Simpson played in both games, but failed to score.

Who Else Played

Jon Teske played in both games, but failed to score.

Ibi Watson played in the Illinois game, but failed to score.

Fred Wright-Jones played in the Wisconsin game, but failed to score.

Who Didn’t Play

Brent Hibbitts and Sean Lonergan didn’t play in either game this week.

The Big Picture

Michigan is still “on the bubble” for an NCAA Tournament bid. They need to win 7 of their remaining 11 Big Ten games to stand a decent chance. If they continue to play as hard as they did this week, they just might do it.

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays two more games, one at home and one on the road. On Thursday (01/26/2017, 9:00 p.m., ESPN2), Michigan plays Indiana in Crisler Arena, then on Sunday (01/29/2017, 1:00 p.m., CBS), they play at Michigan State. Both of these games are “toss up” games.

Indiana is currently 14-6 overall, 4-3 in the Big Ten. They have some impressive wins (#2 Kansas, #3 North Carolina, and Michigan State) and some embarrassing losses (Fort Wayne and Nebraska). They have an elite offense, but a mid-level defense. This will be a good test to see how much Michigan’s defense has improved.

Michigan State has a worse overall record than Michigan (12-8), but a better Big Ten record (4-3). They have a few decent wins (Wichita State and Minnesota [twice]), and a few embarrassing losses (Northeastern, Penn State, and Ohio State). They lean heavily on a raw but talented freshman class, which makes them unpredictable. Expect this to be a real slugfest, especially in Breslin.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Nothing But ‘Net – Week #12 – 01/16/2017 – Not Dead Yet

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they lost one and won the other. On Wednesday (01/11/2017), Michigan lost at Illinois 85-69, then on Saturday (01/14/2017), they beat Nebraska 91-85 in Crisler Arena. The loss and the win leave Michigan with a record of 12-6 (2-3 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

After the truly disappointing loss at Illinois, it looked like Michigan might not win another game this season, and that all was lost. But, as Monty Python says, “I’m not dead yet”: they played one of their better games in a while in beating Nebraska. Normally, we’d say “eh, Nebraska”, but not this season. Nebraska has beaten Indiana and Maryland on the road, so beating them is more of an accomplishment than usual.

“Disappointing” might not cover it for the Illinois debacle. Michigan needed that win, and they didn’t show up. The game was close for most of the 1st half, and it was tied up 34-34 with 3:18 left in the half. That’s when the roof fell in. Derrick Walton Jr. got called for a foul, and lost his cool. He slammed the basketball to the court, and got called for a technical. So, Illinois got 2 free throws (which they made) and the ball, and got a basket for 2 more points. That started a 15-2 run to end the half up 13 points (49-36), which was all the lead Illinois needed. The closest Michigan got the rest of the game was 9 points (53-44) with 17:22 left, but the lead got as high as 20 points several times. It was ugly.

To their credit, Michigan could have folded their tents and just gone through the motions vs. Nebraska, but they played hard and smart. They didn’t play much defense, again, but they managed to get just enough timely stops to win the game. They led the entire game, but never by more than 10 points, and often by 1 or 2 points. They managed to keep the lead in the 3-6 point range most of the game, but they could never shake Nebraska. Fortunately, they hit their free throws in crunch time, and won the game.

The stats for both games are remarkably similar. Michigan played great offense in both games, and terrible defense. In the Illinois game, Michigan shot very well overall (27-for-51 = 52.9%), they shot 3-pointers well (7-for-14 = 50.0%), and they shot free throws well (8-for-10 = 80.0%). They were crushed on the boards (30-17), but they won the turnover battle (8-11). They lost the game on the boards: all those extra possessions added up for Illinois.

In the Nebraska game, UM shot very well overall (27-for-50 = 54.0%), they shot very well from 3-point range (11-for-22 = 50.0%), and they shot very well from the free throw line (26-for-30 = 86.7%). As usual, they lost the rebounding battle (29-23), and they won the turnover battle (10-13). They won the game at the free throw line: Nebraska only shot 5 free throws.

Who Looked Good

For the second week in a row, in both games, 4 of the 5 starters hit double figures.

DJ Wilson was the star of the Illinois game, with 19 points (on 8-for-12 shooting). He also played well vs. Nebraska, with 11 points, including 3-for-4 shooting from 3-point range.

Moritz Wagner was the star of the Nebraska game, with 23 points, including 4-for-6 shooting from 3-point range. He had one of his worst games of the season vs. Illinois, with only 6 points, and no defense.

Derrick Walton Jr. hit double figures in both games (11 and 20 points), but his mental error (technical foul) in the Illinois game swung the momentum the wrong way at the wrong time.

Zak Irvin also hit double figures in both games (10 and 21). On the downside, he was 0-for-1 and 0-for-4 shooting 3-pointers this week.

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman was the other starter to hit double figures in one game (14 vs. Illinois) and have a rough time the other game (6 vs. Nebraska).

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Duncan Robinson had another quiet week: 2 and 6 points. This is the same Duncan Robinson who shot 60% from 3-point range in the early part of last season. Michigan needs that Duncan Robinson back.

Mark Donnal had 2 points in each game. This is the same Mark Donnal who had 28 points against Illinois last season in Champaign. Michigan needs that Mark Donnal back.

Xavier Simpson had 3 and 2 points. He did a decent job of running the offense, and he has quick hands on defense, but he’s still got a ways to go.

Sean Lonergan had 2 points vs. Illinois, and didn’t play in the Nebraska game.

Who Else Played

Ibi Watson played in both games, but failed to score.

Brent Hibbitts, Jon Teske, and Fred Wright-Jones all played in the Illinois game, but not the Nebraska game. None of them scored.

Who Didn’t Play

Everyone played in at least one game this week. Once the Illinois game got out of hand, Coach Beilein emptied the bench.

The Big Picture

While Michigan hasn’t completely ruined their chances for getting into the NCAA Tournament, they certainly didn’t help things by sleepwalking through the Illinois game. Their margin for error is getting very thin. At this point, I’d say an NIT bid is much more likely.

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays two more games, one on the road, and one in Crisler Arena. On Tuesday (01/17/2017, 9:00 p.m. EST, ESPN), Michigan plays at (#18) Wisconsin, then on Saturday (01/21/2017, 2:15 p.m., BTN), they play Illinois in Crisler Arena.

Michigan stands no chance at all vs. Wisconsin in Madison. Zero. Wisconsin is 14-3 overall, 3-1 in the Big Ten, and they are virtually unbeatable at home. Just write this one off and move on.

Illinois just beat Michigan last week, but it was a closer game than the final score would indicate. The rematch is a “toss up” game, and Michigan really needs to win it if they want to have any hope of making the Big Dance. If they lose this one, it’s NIT time.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Nothing But ‘Net – Week #11 – 01/09/2017 – Trending The Wrong Way

Quick Look

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played two games last week, and they won one and lost the other. On Wednesday (01/04/2017), Michigan beat Penn State 72-69, then on Saturday (01/07/2017), they lost to Maryland 77-70. Both games were in Crisler Arena. The win and the loss leave Michigan with a record of 11-5 (1-2 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

Just 3 games into the Big Ten season, it’s obvious that Michigan has taken a step backwards from last season’s team, and is trending in the wrong direction. Sure, they beat PSU, but they were expected to beat them; the real indicator was how they would do in a tough “toss-up” game vs. Maryland, and they didn’t look good.

Actually, Michigan hasn’t looked good since their last two “cupcake” games (Central Arkansas and Maryland Eastern Shore). They looked pretty weak in their last non-conference game (Furman) and all 3 of their Big Ten games (Iowa, PSU, and Maryland). For the first 30 minutes of the PSU game, they made Penn State look like Duke. Fortunately, UM woke up just in time in that game, and managed to come back just enough to win. Not so in the other 2 Big Ten games. Michigan has been playing from behind a lot this season, and they have 5 losses to show for it.

UM fell behind early to PSU, and only led once in the 1st half (7-6, with 16:16 to go). They trailed by 7 at halftime (36-29), and let the game get even further away in the first 7 minutes of the 2nd half (54-40 with 15:41 to go). A quick 12-1 run got Michigan back in the game, down only 3 points (55-52 with 8:35 to go). Michigan finally got the lead (62-61) with 3:28 left, lost it (63-62), and got it back for good (64-63). PSU was still within one point (70-69) with 5 seconds left, but Michigan made their free throws to win the game.

Michigan led 3-0 and 3-2 vs. Maryland, then never led again. Maryland led by as many as 11 points (37-26) late in the 1st half, and led by 9 (37-28) at halftime. In the early part of the 2nd half, UM got as close as 1 point (38-37), but could never quite “get over the hump”. It was still a 3-point game (73-70) in the final minute, but UM couldn’t get the stops or hit the big shots when they needed them.

The stats from the PSU game show why Michigan had such a hard time: they shot poorly (44.6% overall, 28.6% from 3-point range), and they got hammered on the boards (38-27). PSU lost the game with turnovers (14-5).

The stats from the Maryland game are actually a little better. UM shot better (50.0% overall and 38.1% from 3-point range), and got closer in the rebounding battle (33-26). Maryland won because they were on fire from 3-point range: 10-for-15 (66.7%).

Who Looked Good

In both games, 4 of the 5 starters hit double figures.

DJ Wilson hit double figures in both games (12 and 13). He was 3-for-3 shooting 3-pointes vs. Maryland.

Moritz Wagner also hit double figures in both games (12 and 17). He also had 5 rebounds in each game. He kind of fell in love with the 3-point shot a little more than he should have in the Maryland game, going 2-for-7.

Zak Irvin was the 3rd starter to hit double figures in both games (14 and 15).

Derrick Walton Jr. hit double figures (14) vs. PSU, but had a rough game (5 points) vs. Maryland.

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman was the other starter to hit double figures in one game (12 vs. Maryland) and have a rough time the other game (7 vs. PSU).

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Duncan Robinson did OK (8 points) vs. PSU, but had a quiet game (3 points) vs. Maryland.

Mark Donnal had 3 and 5 points.

Xavier Simpson had 2 and 0 points.

Sean Lonergan went scoreless in 1 minute of playing time vs. PSU, and didn’t play in the Maryland game.

Who Else Played

No one else played.

Who Didn’t Play

Brent Hibbitts, Jon Teske, Ibi Watson and Fred Wright-Jones didn’t play.

The Big Picture

Nothing has changed since last week: Michigan still stands a decent chance of getting into the NCAA Tournament, but they need to win more of the “toss up” games, especially at home.

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays two more games, one on the road, and one in Crisler Arena. On Wednesday (01/11/2017, 9:00 p.m. EST, BTN), Michigan plays at Illinois, then on Saturday (01/14/2017, 2:00 p.m., BTN), they play Nebraska in Crisler Arena.

Illinois has the same record as Michigan (11-5 overall, 1-2 in the Big Ten), a few good wins (North Carolina State, Virginia Commonwealth, BYU, Missouri, and Ohio State), and only one bad loss (Winthrop). They also lost to Maryland, by a lot more than Michigan did (84-59). This will be a tough game, especially on the road.

Nebraska has been the biggest surprise so far in the Big Ten. Their overall record is 9-6, but they are 3-0 in the Big Ten, with wins over Indiana (on the road), Maryland (on the road), and Iowa (at home). They didn’t beat anyone good in the non-conference schedule, and they have one bad loss (Gardner-Webb). If they can beat Indiana and Maryland on the road, they can certainly beat Michigan in Crisler. This game does not look very promising.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!

Nothing But ‘Net – Week #10 – 01/02/2017 – Disappointing Start

Quick Look

Happy New Year.

The University of Michigan men’s basketball team played one game last week, their Big Ten opener, and they lost it. On Sunday (01/01/2017), Michigan lost at Iowa 86-83 (in overtime). The loss drops Michigan’s record to 10-4 (0-1 in the Big Ten).

What Happened

This was a toss-up game, and Michigan had their chances to win it, but they couldn’t hit the big shots when they needed to, and they lost in overtime. It was a close, hard-fought game, and Michigan didn’t look bad, but they also didn’t take advantage of the golden opportunities they had to greatly increase their chances.

It was a see-saw game, with lots of ties (11) and lead changes (8), and neither team ever got more than 7 points ahead. Iowa just made the shots and got the stops in the key moments, and they deserved to win.

The stats show that Michigan played OK, but not great: 45.9% shooting overall (34-for74), 34.3% shooting from 3-point range (12-for-35), and 60.0% shooting from the free throw line (3-for-5). They lost the rebounding battle (39-42), and won the turnover battle (8-9).

Who Looked Good

DJ Wilson was the star, and the only reason UM stayed close. He scored 28 points on 11-for-18 shooting (4-for-8 shooting 3-pointers), and had 14 rebounds for a huge double-double. He also had 6 assists and only 1 turnover.

Moritz Wagner scored 12 points on decent shooting: 6-for-10, but 0-for-2 shooting 3-pointers.

Zak Irvin also had 12 points, but didn’t shoot very well: 5-for-15. He did have 6 rebounds and 6 assists.

Derrick Walton Jr. was the 4th UM starter in double figures, with 13 points. He also had a mediocre game shooting: 5-for-13, 3-for-8 shooting 3-pointers.

Duncan Robinson, coming off the bench, was the 5th UM player in double figures, with 15 points. He shot pretty well overall (6-for-12), but only 3-for-9 from 3-point range.

Who Looked Not-So-Good

Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman went scoreless (0-for-2) in only 8 minutes of action. He got in early foul trouble in the 1st half, and only played 4 minutes, but he didn’t get any more fouls in the 2nd half, yet only played 4 more minutes. Something is up here. MAAR has been in quite a slump lately, and I suspect he’s going to be replaced in the starting lineup with Duncan Robinson.

Mark Donnal chipped in a few points (3) off the bench, and played some decent defense.

Xavier Simpson went scoreless (0-for-1) in 9 minutes of playing time.

Sean Lonergan went scoreless (0-for-1) in 1 minute of playing time.

Who Else Played

No one else played.

Who Didn’t Play

Brent Hibbitts, Jon Teske, Ibi Watson and Fred Wright-Jones didn’t play.

The Big Picture

It’s clear that Michigan isn’t going to be in the running for the Big Ten championship, so they need to set their sights on getting to the NCAA Tournament. They won 10 non-conference games, including a couple good wins (Marquette, SMU, and Texas) and no bad losses, so they need to win 9 games in the Big Ten regular season, and 1 game in the Big Ten Tournament. The Iowa game could have been one of those 9 wins, but it wasn’t. Michigan still stands a decent chance of making the NCAA Tournament, but they need to win a few games on the road.

What’s Next

This week Michigan plays two games, both in Crisler Arena. On Wednesday (01/04/2017, 8:30 p.m., BTN), Michigan plays Penn State, then on Saturday (01/07/2017, 3:10 p.m., ESPN2), they play Maryland.

Penn State went 8-5 in their non-conference schedule, with a couple good wins (Georgia Tech and St. John’s), and one sad loss (Albany). They lost to Northwestern at home, and beat Rutgers on the road. Michigan should be able to beat them, but they’ll have to play a solid game.

Maryland went 12-1 in their non-conference schedule, with their only loss at home to Pittsburgh in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. They beat Illinois at home, but lost to Nebraska, also at home. They are the first team out of the AP Top-25 (#26). They will be a tough test for Michigan, and a win would be an accomplishment.

Check back next week to see what happened, and why.

Go Blue!